CBS Sports report was quite harsh on one of Cubs new management's prized prospects:
The Cubs spent $6 million and a 40-man roster spot on 20-year-old Cuban pitcher Gerardo Concepcion, but scouts who have seen him pitch in the Class A Midwest League have come away totally unimpressed. "They're trying to tell people it's just mechanics that he needs to get straightened out," one scout said. "But I'm telling you, he stinks. If he was in a junior college game you were at, you'd leave." Concepcion is 2-6 with a 7.39 ERA in 12 starts for Peoria.
There are a few risks in signing prospects:
1. The younger the prospect, the more chance of failure than success.
2. There is a maturity factor that can impede development.
3. The younger the prospect, the more likely his stats are inflated because he faced lesser talent than older prospects (like college players).
4. Young, international prospects are a greater risk for all the above reasons plus language and cultural issues when they come to the U.S.
You don't spend $6 million in the dark hoping for the best; you normally would shoot yourself in the foot instead. Concepcion had an almost non-existent resume. Cuban baseball is still insulated, and the international teams play a limited schedule. It is very hard to judge the current standard of Cuban baseball. Some Scouts used to believe that a player on the Cuban national team could be at a talent level of major league-AAA caliber; but now most believe national players are developmental, around high A ball.
Concepcion had all the risk factors plus the "mystery" factor that no one had really seen him pitch in person. At the time of the player signing, many other clubs were stunned a) by the amount of money spent and b) giving a 20 year old a major league contract (and 40 man roster spot). Further confounding other organizations was the fact the Cubs sent Concepcion to Class A Peoria, where based upon the Cubs hype, he should dominate the competition.
When another scout opines that one of the alleged best 40 players in your entire organization "stinks," you have to consider whether it is just sour grapes or a really, really bad trend. At this point, objectively you have to lean toward the "stink" or bust label as a 7.39 ERA in 12 starts shows no improvement, only bad consistency.
In a broader context, this report sheds light on a nagging concern: Epstein is used to throwing money at roster problems and hoping that the problems resolve themselves. In Boston, he spent big money on free agents who turned out to be dead money contracts. Epstein took credit for Boston's championships, but local writers still defer to former GM Dan Duquette who drafted and built the core players on those teams as the real architect of the Red Sox success. Hoyer short term in San Diego yielded a press clipping portfolio of having one the of the best farm systems in the league, but after one anomalous year, the Padres have fallen back into the cellar.
Since the blueprint for the Cubs rebuilding, talent evaluation is critical. And at this point, there is very little good news on Cub prospect front. Epstein and Hoyer have concentrated on signing younger players (especially pitchers) to re-stock the system, but that means a longer redevelopment period with more risk. They have also spent more money on younger talent than the average club. The signing of high school outfielder Alberto Almora for $650,000 more than the slot figure of $3.25 million will cost the Cubs a reported luxury tax of $280,000. An extra million here and there suddenly adds up to payroll issues in the future at the major league level. Ricketts has claimed that the team is poor; he needs public money in order to rehab Wrigley. But signs point to the baseball side burning through money like there is no tomorrow.
The only optimistic catch has been Anthony Rizzo. Most people believe he is the real deal. However, he has not gone through the league once, and pitchers will make adjustments and find his out pitch (off-speed down and away). He will have to make adjustments unlike other fast starters like Micah Hoffpauir, who fizzled quickly once the league caught up to him. The only big trade of the off-season was Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart. Stewart was coming off a horrible, injury plagued season - - - and was a bust this year for the Cubs. That was a bad deal. The big free agent signing was David DeJesus to play RF. Recently, substitute Cubs broadcaster Dave Campbell remarked that DeJesus was at best a "fourth or fifth outfielder" because he does not hit for power or RBI production to be a corner outfielder or the speed and average to be a lead off hitter. The major league roster is filled with bench players who are starting because there is no depth.
The end of the year report card on Epstein's first season may be pretty harsh.
