July 27, 2012

GARZA, DEMPSTER TO STAY

The Cubs appear to be falling face on their collective face.

First, it was the Dempster to Atlanta trade that fell a part because Dempster felt "blindsided" by the news of it. If Dempster did not give the Cubs any preferences, then shame on management for not discussing the prospect of trading him. But if Dempster did give an indication he'd go to Atlanta, then shame on him for pulling out at the last moment. For if Dempster wants to stay a Cub, all he has to do is say "I am not waiving my 10-5 rights." Then the Cubs don't have to waste time trying to deal him for prospects.

The Dempster saga was clearly a distraction and a PR disaster.

Second, Garza gets hurt in his last start. It was initially stated maybe an elbow or arm cramps, but turns out to be a triceps injury of unknown severity. However, Garza will miss his next start (his last one before the trade deadline). No team will trade for an injured starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Garza will stay a Cub for the rest of the season.  There is little chance that Garza will clear waivers after August 1st to make an in-season move with so many other teams vying for the second wild card spot.

So the Cubs will have Dempster and Garza on the roster to the end of the season. Then, another problem occurs which should make management nervous. The whole point of trading Garza and Dempster was to bring back high level and major league ready prospects in return to quicken the rebuilding process. Dempster is a free agent at season's end. In order to get a compensatory draft pick, the Cubs would have to give Dempster a "qualifying offer" of around $12.5 million (which is a $1.5 million pay cut). Maybe the Cubs think Dempster will reject the offer and file for free agency. However, since Dempster and his family are now a fixtures in Chicago, it is highly probable that Dempster could accept the offer and be a Cub in 2014. That would set back rebuilding even further.

Garza could head to his last year of arbitration. He is likely going to make the same as Dempster's offer, $12.5 million (an approximate $2.75 million raise). The Cubs may not think Garza is truly a #1 starter since they have been trying to trade him this year. The Cubs don't want to pay a large extension contract for a pitcher on a ball club that will not be ready to compete until 2015. Ricketts has to be counting the days when his payroll is cut to under $100 million. But if Dempster and Garza both stay, then the payroll relief does not happen.

So the rebuilding process stalls in neutral for another year.