Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune spoke to Cubs President Theo Epstein in regard to the the state of the Cubs. Many of Epstein's statements contradict the mission statement laid out by owner Tom Ricketts when Epstein was hired less than a year ago.
"We're hoping we're very competitive very soon," Epstein said. "Yet wanting it to be so doesn't make it so. You have to build an organization."
Ricketts told fans at the hiring that the Cubs would remain competitive. He said that there would be money to spend on free agents and build a minor league system. Ricketts' promise that the Cubs would remain competitive was necessary in order to preserve the season ticket base and keep fans coming to the ball park.
"In certain deals, it is (pitching)," Epstein said. "You can express a preference for pitching, but if you're dealing with a club that has better position player prospects and you feel the position players in a certain system are a safer bet or offer higher upside, I don't think it's right to pigeonhole yourself to one situation."
It is apparent that Epstein is trying to get young, fast. He wants to trade veterans for young prospects, preferably pitchers. Reports have noted that in trade discussions, the Cubs are looking for under 21 prospects (A ball) which means that it will take years to develop through the system (if you promote them one level per year). Instead of being competitive, the Cubs appear to be big market bottom dwellers for the next three to four years, which would be unacceptable to the fans and ownership.
"As a whole, not specifically regarding potential deals, we need to add a lot of pitching to the system. It's not enough to have a handful or two. You need waves and waves coming through your system, and we don't have that. We hardly have even one wave coming, so we need to rebuild a lot of pitching depth."
It is ironic that this philosophy mirrors Jim Hendry's last five year plan: sign a ton of pitchers and see if any pan out, instead of correctly evaluating talent on an individual basis to get MLB talent at any position. Hendry drafted a lot of college pitchers because he needed to have an army of new arms ready each season. At one point, he had 2/3 of his 40 man roster filled with pitchers. And what happened? The system was without talent at key positions, especially third base, second base and power hitting corner outfield slots. It is so bad that Vitters is the only third base prospect in the organization. And Hoyer is not too keen on him, either. Hendry rolled the dice on over-emphazing pitching and lost. Now Epstein is over-emphasizing pitching (at a riskier lower level of acquiring high school/teens in the last draft and in future trades). And that should be a major worry since he has said the team will not be competitive for years (which is exactly the opposite Ricketts said when he hired Epstein).
"It's a nice way to add talent to an organization without giving up talent," he said of free agent acquisitions. "But you can not make an organization that way. We have a lot of steps ahead of us that we need to take care of before we're in position to add a finishing piece or two through free agency."
However, the Cubs last playoff squad was primarily built through free agent signings. The idea that the sole focus of the Cubs organization now is to sign or trade for young minor league talent only means that the selective rebuild is now a demolition job. To foreclose the thought of signing a free agent because you are rebuilding is a narrow minded, pigeon-holed blindness in the reality of the business.
"We'll always be on every free agent and see if it's the right player or the right value. But if we sat around and drew up a plan and had free agency as the answer to most of our problems, we'd be on a fool's errand there."
The idea that free agency is not the answer to the Cubs problems may relate back to the issue of money. The Cubs are no longer the cash machine that the Tribune owned; attendance is down so revenue is down. Ricketts has begged the city and state for money to rehab Wrigley Field (but at the same time spent tens of millions of dollars on adjacent real estate purchases). One thing is certain: the Cubs payroll will begin to drop quickly starting next year as at least $30 million in contracts come off the books. The Cubs payroll will probably be below $95 million for 2013, which gets the Cubs into middle market levels. For every dollar of payroll saved, another dollar goes to ownership profit. If the Cubs lose 100 games in 2012 and another 100 or so in 2013, there may be a very small fan base left in 2014 when the "new prospects" begin to get ready to make their major league debuts.
But there are troubling signs that "the process" may be more important than promoting talent quickly. The Cubs now have a rule that they want position players to have at least 500 ABs at AAA before being promoted to the major league team. That means a full season in AAA. It seems like an arbitrary wall, and will not solve an injury problem during the season.
In addition, there are stories that the Cubs are primarily focused in on trading Ryan Dempster to the point of not listening or processing other trade requests, like on Matt Garza or even Darwin Barney. If true, that means the decision making process is glacial in the front office. Epstein added another layer of management with his team over the retained Hendry team, but with all those executives you would hope that they could do more than one thing at a time. If not, the Cubs are doomed by seized managerial rust in the gears.
Then there are the reports that the Royals of all teams are interested in acquiring Garza. Many people say that is impossible; the Royals are not buyers. But in some respects, the new CBA and a minor league system that has produced some talent, the Royals --- a small market team that gets the benefits of revenue sharing and competitive balance pick ---- can make a deal for a veteran pitcher to anchor their staff for the next few years at $12 million/per. Garza fits that mold of a Greinke replacement. Garza will get $12 million in arbitration for 2013, and the Royals will offer him $12.5 million tender for 2014 (and if rejects it, the Royals get a first round compensation pick). The Royals can trade their new competitive pick (#1 in sandwich round) to the Cubs with some low level prospects for Garza. It would be like a small market team vulture picking the carcass of a fallen, bloated big city water buffalo but it makes some logical sense. It feeds the Epstein need to amass draft picks and young players. And it also plays well in the Royals scheme: a big name at a reasonable price and a high draft pick if he leaves for free agency in 1.5 years.
It is such a simple deal that there is no reason it should not get done quickly. But then again, Dempster is a free agent, riding a 33 inning scoreless streak. His value is at its peak. Ten teams may be in the mix. So the entire focus of the Epstein brain trust is looking over scouting reports for 10 teams to make prospect lists? One, that should have already been done before trade discussion start, and two, the Cubs brass should already have a blueprint of positions to fill throughout the grids of their entire system roster charts and lists of who is expected to fill those slots (internally or externally).
The Cubs have said that they want to remain competitive, but all signs point to the opposite. The Cubs want to trade their valuable veterans to gain a hoard of young pitching prospects, but it seems like they can't pull the trigger as quickly as say, a Kenny Williams whose trade for Kevin Youkilis has turned out to be the deal of the decade. Maybe the pressure on Epstein is so great that he does not want to make "a mistake," but in every deal there is risk. But to minimize risk, you must have quality information. But the Cubs always speak about the "process." The process is the key to success.
We have come to learn that when people use doublespeak to discuss the importance of "a process," in reality, they are clueless on how to apply facts and experience to a given situation to get the correct result or solve a problem. Politicians are masters of the doublespeak answer. Epstein is trying hard to put a political polish to the rotten apple that is the current state of the Cubs. But the next twelve days will really tell whether Epstein and his crew have the ability to make excellent decisions in the trade market or whether they are all talk.
