July 16, 2012

STREAKS

Poor Dale Sveum. He was put in a position at the beginning of the season to babysit a bad team through the start of a long, tenuous rebuilding process. He was given below average talent and dead money contract veterans and quickly the team sank to the bottom of the standings. No pressure from new Cub management, because even really bad losing gives them a number one or two draft pick next year.

But now, the Cubs have won 12 of their last 16 games. Ryan Dempster, the trade gem of trade bait for the last three weeks, has a 33 IP scoreless streak. His trade value is at an all time high. It was speculated that he won't last the week in a Cub uniform. He just needs to agree to be traded to a team who may given him an extension, like the Dodgers.

You also have other players coming around. Soriano came back from the break with 2 HRs, and Barney started hitting while announcers began touting his exceptional fielding percentage at second base (possibly to bolster the rumors that the Tigers need a second baseman for the second half push).

But a real dynamic at work here is that some players may have finally realized that they are playing for a job for this year and next. Players on last place teams are more likely to be tossed aside like the weekly trash if management believes it has found someone even potentially better. When a player is feeling the pressure that he is playing for a contract next year (that includes Dempster), a human survival dynamic kicks in; more concentration. Better command and control. It brings confidence.
Good performance streaks have a habit of being contagious.  Like the stellar 3-6-1 game ending double play by the Cubs in the Diamondbacks series: a month ago, that play would have probably led to a wild throw or two and a big inning by the opponent.

So Sveum does not want management to break up his team now that they are winning. But the irony is that the management can leverage the better play for better prospects in trade negotiations. So Sveum should just be content to ride out the over-performing current Cubs until the trade deadline.