This year will be an interesting trade market for starters if rumors are true that the Phils may market Cole Hamels (free agent walk year) and the Brewers market Zach Greinke.
The question is whether Cubs Matt Garza gets lost in the shuffle, or becomes more a value play for teams looking for another arm for the stretch drive.
Garza is 28. He has been in the majors for 7 years. He has pitched well in the high intensity AL East against the Yankees and Red Sox. He has a type A personality and hyperactive bench guy. But in his two years in Chicago, he may becoming a frustrated pitchers due to lack of offensive support.
In 2011, Garza was 10-10, 3.32 ERA, 198 IP, 1.258 WHIP and 3.13 K/BB ratio. All solid numbers.
In 2012, Garza is 5-6, 4.01 ERA, 89.2 IP, 1.160 WHIP, and 3.08 K/BB ratio. More earned runs but on par with last season.
For his career, Garza is 56-60, 3.85 ERA, 1.290 WHIP and 2.38 K/BB ratio. His best season was 2010 with the Rays, going 15-10.
Despite the apparent consistency, Garza's record hovers around .500. Is this a No. 1 starter profile? Can you build your rotation around him?
Teams want an anchor No. 1 guy who wins 6 out of every 10 starts; takes the ball and ends losing streaks. Garza clearly is not in the league of a Halladay, Sabathia or Kershaw.
That is why Garza's name is always on the trade rumor board. The Cubs gave up five prospects for him. It is doubtful that the Cubs will get that much in return. Garza has one more year of arbitration left before free agency (2014) so he can be expected to earn at least $12 million next season.
The Cubs have to balance this against what the 2013 rotation will be without him:
WITH: Garza, Samardzija, Maholm, T. Wood, (???????)
WITHOUT: Samardzija, Maholm, T. Wood, (??????), (??????)
All of these players would be pitching in slots above their talent level. Samardzija is not a #1 or #2 starter. Maholm appears to be a #4 and T. Wood a #4/5.
And the tea leaves forecast that the Cubs will not attempt to re-sign Dempster ($14 million) and Zambrano's contract expires ($18 million), so the Cubs are not going to spend that $32 million salary relief in 2013. If they trade Garza, the salary relief expands to nearly $41 million for 2013. With declining attendance at Wrigley, money management will become a critical factor on how the baseball team is going to be run in the short term. Rebuilding means shrinking the salary structure to take the pain of losing seasons. Trading Garza would fit into that blueprint.
On the other side of the coin, some would say the Cubs need to spend the $12 million and keep Garza as the #1 just for the sake of appearances. Garza is a durable starter who will go out and pitch well for 30-33 starts. You have to give the fans more than just Rizzo and Castro's offensive potential. And the fact that there are no AAA starting pitchers ready to take Garza's spot (let alone the vacant #4 and #5 slots), that factors into keeping Garza (until the trade deadline next season). Otherwise, you have to spend almost as much money on journeymen starters who won't perform well and have no place in the long term future of the club.
Garza is more "tradeable" than Dempster, but Dempster is probably going to get dealt first. Then, the Cubs have to decide whether Garza is more valuable in anchoring the rotation for 2013 or more valuable getting "assets" ready for a run in 2015.
