The Cubs bullpen may be the worst collection of arms in a century.
It is the most glaring weakness on a ball club that has started out at 4-2.
In the short 2020 season, 10 percent has been played.
Overall, the pitching staff is not doing well:
4 W 2 L 5.43 ERA 53 IP 39 H 32 ER 27 BB 1.245 WHIP
But the bullpen is a black hole of badness:
0 W 0 L 9.65 ERA 18.2 IP 18 H 20 ER 20 BB 2.036 WHIP
The answer to this problem is clear: the Cubs failed to address the bullpen issues.
The reason was management refused in the off-season to spend any money.
Instead, you have pitchers coming out of the pen you have never heard of;
some making their major league debuts, some long term minor league journeymen, or
some who have not thrown in two years a major league pitch.
The bullpen is a bunch of reclamation projects with a slim hope that one
will catch lightning in a bottle.
Cub fans are stuck with this horror show. With the expanded playoffs of 16 of
30 teams, no one is really going to trade anyone at the deadline. And some
teams, like the Marlins, are toxic viral clusters so why infect your team
with another problem?
Can the offense score 6 runs or more each game to counter-balance the bad bullpen?
NO, of course not.
And that is why this season will be worse than expected.
July 30, 2020
July 24, 2020
ANOTHER BAD IDEA
Just before the strange 2020 season began, MLB and the union agreed to an expanded playoff.
As MLB continues to shovel "new" rules and game changes, why not add another bad one to the pile? The season is a mess to begin with.
According to ESPN, the agreement is just for this season.
Playoffs now expand from 10 teams to 16. Fifty-three percent of all teams are now part of the 16-team expanded playoff proposal. Yeah, youth baseball participation awards are here!
But then it gets even worse.
The No. 1, 2, 3 seeds in each league—the Division winners—would pick their opponents among the other five teams. This is a hokey, cheesy television reality show STUNT. Does MLB have any institutional PRIDE left?
According to multiple reports, the top-three in each league will go to regular season division winners. According to Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, the second place team in each division will also qualify for the postseason with the remaining two spots going to the teams with the next best records.
The real problem with this new format is that THE BEST TEAMS are not rewarded by the new system. The division second place teams are automatically in the post-season even if their record is worse than other teams in their league. In a 60 game schedule, this may have sub-.500 clubs automatically making the post season and a club with an above .500 record sitting out.
But it is not about having the best teams playing for a championship. It is not about having the best product on the field.
"We are excited to announce the expansion of the 2020 Postseason," commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. "This season will be a spring to a new format that will allow more fans to experience playoff baseball. We look forward to a memorable Postseason concluding a year like no other and appreciate the continued partnership and enthusiasm of ESPN and TBS."
THIS!
The new playoff push was from the national networks who are trying to salvage some revenue by having more post-season games (which benefit MLB owners as well).
As MLB continues to shovel "new" rules and game changes, why not add another bad one to the pile? The season is a mess to begin with.
According to ESPN, the agreement is just for this season.
Playoffs now expand from 10 teams to 16. Fifty-three percent of all teams are now part of the 16-team expanded playoff proposal. Yeah, youth baseball participation awards are here!
But then it gets even worse.
The No. 1, 2, 3 seeds in each league—the Division winners—would pick their opponents among the other five teams. This is a hokey, cheesy television reality show STUNT. Does MLB have any institutional PRIDE left?
According to multiple reports, the top-three in each league will go to regular season division winners. According to Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, the second place team in each division will also qualify for the postseason with the remaining two spots going to the teams with the next best records.
The real problem with this new format is that THE BEST TEAMS are not rewarded by the new system. The division second place teams are automatically in the post-season even if their record is worse than other teams in their league. In a 60 game schedule, this may have sub-.500 clubs automatically making the post season and a club with an above .500 record sitting out.
But it is not about having the best teams playing for a championship. It is not about having the best product on the field.
"We are excited to announce the expansion of the 2020 Postseason," commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. "This season will be a spring to a new format that will allow more fans to experience playoff baseball. We look forward to a memorable Postseason concluding a year like no other and appreciate the continued partnership and enthusiasm of ESPN and TBS."
THIS!
The new playoff push was from the national networks who are trying to salvage some revenue by having more post-season games (which benefit MLB owners as well).
July 23, 2020
MAGNIFICATION
The 2020 season will be a grind. 60 games in 9 weeks plus 2 days. There will only be 5 days off.
Commentators have called this season a "sprint" to the finish. It is more like "sink or swim."
The general rule of thumb in pennant race is that a team is still in contention if the number of games behind is equal to or less than the number of weeks left in the season. The reason is simple: unless you are playing the divisional leader head to head, it is very difficult to gain ground or pass other division teams.
The schedule will be a pressure cooker. Teams are going to be playing an average of 6.6 games per week. That is about as bad as youth travel baseball clubs.
Each win or loss equals 3 regular season games.
A three game losing streak is equal to a 9 game losing streak. That is the magnitude of the season.
Each three game series is a playoff contest. You must win two of three in order to advance. That has to be the mindset. There needs to be a sense of urgency. There may be a 40 victory team this season (equal to 120 wins) and a 40 loss team (perhaps in the same division).
The microscope will be on everyone: the new managers trying to learn on the fly; established starters who cannot afford "slow" starts; and teams with high cost talent with no major revenue. Post-season or bust has never been more alarming than this year. As it stands today, starting pitchers are having a harder time getting into game shape than hitters.
And this assumes that the league will actually play a full season. Today, it was reported another 70,000 positive coronavirus tests in the US. The Toronto Blue Jays have been evicted from Canada. The plan to play in Pittsburgh was vetoed yesterday by the state. The Jays might as well change their name to the "Orphans."
With the new game rules and the condensed schedule, the 2020 season will have a big question mark in the history and record books. If a player hits .400, does it really count?
Commentators have called this season a "sprint" to the finish. It is more like "sink or swim."
The general rule of thumb in pennant race is that a team is still in contention if the number of games behind is equal to or less than the number of weeks left in the season. The reason is simple: unless you are playing the divisional leader head to head, it is very difficult to gain ground or pass other division teams.
The schedule will be a pressure cooker. Teams are going to be playing an average of 6.6 games per week. That is about as bad as youth travel baseball clubs.
Each win or loss equals 3 regular season games.
A three game losing streak is equal to a 9 game losing streak. That is the magnitude of the season.
Each three game series is a playoff contest. You must win two of three in order to advance. That has to be the mindset. There needs to be a sense of urgency. There may be a 40 victory team this season (equal to 120 wins) and a 40 loss team (perhaps in the same division).
The microscope will be on everyone: the new managers trying to learn on the fly; established starters who cannot afford "slow" starts; and teams with high cost talent with no major revenue. Post-season or bust has never been more alarming than this year. As it stands today, starting pitchers are having a harder time getting into game shape than hitters.
And this assumes that the league will actually play a full season. Today, it was reported another 70,000 positive coronavirus tests in the US. The Toronto Blue Jays have been evicted from Canada. The plan to play in Pittsburgh was vetoed yesterday by the state. The Jays might as well change their name to the "Orphans."
With the new game rules and the condensed schedule, the 2020 season will have a big question mark in the history and record books. If a player hits .400, does it really count?
July 16, 2020
BY THE NUMBERS
Today's story is a continuing loop of arrogant denial.
The Cubs think their team is the best entertainment product in Chicago
so Comcast HAS TO carry its network.
Today's story from Yahoo Sports:
>>>> Of course he cannot speak for Comcast because Comcast holds all the leverage and understands it does not need the Cubs to succeed.
It already has a baseball team - - - its partner in CSNBC. And the White Sox have the buzz the Cubs had in 2015 but with a younger team.
The math does not make sense for Comcast. It's extended basic package in Chicago already costs $95/month. Cord cutting is still happening because of the cost. The Cubs wanted $6/month per subscriber - - - that puts the costs over a hundred dollars a month for most people who will not even watch the games.
In 2019, Cubs local ratings dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 (135,000 viewers).
If a cable operator has 1.6 million subscribers, but only 135,000 watch Cubs games, it means 92 percent of its customers DO NOT want to pay for the Cubs games.
By this metric, Comcast could only justify the expense if 135,000 x $4/viewer/month (last alleged Cubs offer) or $540,000/month (or a 34 cent increase in all customer bills).
By the Cubs financial desire and valuation, it wants $4/viewer/month on 1.6 million subscribers or $6.4 million/month. (Which equate to $76.8 million, which is less than reported TV revenue in 2019 by about 22%).
Comcast is in no rush to EAT $6 million/month for Cubs broadcasts when it has the White Sox on its own regional sports network. Why bail out a competitor?
And why should Comcast pay for Marquee when the 2020 season is still in doubt? By signing a carriage deal now, Comcast would have to pay Marquee whether Cubs games are shown or not. A network that has not gotten good reviews from those few people who actually can see it.
The Cubs ownership position was flawed from the beginning. It took too long to get its network in place under the broken and outdated Dodgers model. Ownership got greedy because of the built up debt and realities of overbuilding around Wrigley. Management arrogantly assumed that it could get a better deal than its past cable partnership. By all metrics, they are wrong.
The Cubs think their team is the best entertainment product in Chicago
so Comcast HAS TO carry its network.
Today's story from Yahoo Sports:
“I’m starting to lose you. Hello?”
That was Marquee Sports Network general manager Mike
McCarthy when asked for an update on the carriage talks between his
network and Comcast, which has yet to pick up the channel. It wasn’t the
first time he played the joke, either.
“Good memory,” he said. “I’ll have to come up with another one.”
McCarthy, who previously was president of MSG Network in
New York, knows all about carriage talks. But he wouldn’t reveal much
regarding the ones that affect lots of Cubs fans, except to say he’s
confident a deal will get done.
“I can’t speak for Comcast, but I wouldn’t want to be in
the TV distribution business in Chicago with the Cubs coming back and
not having that content,” he said. “It wouldn’t be a fun place to be, I
would think.
“We have a confidence that we’re steadfast in. There’s a
little time left [before Opening Day]. It’s closing in on us; we’re very
aware of that. We remain confident that a deal will be made.”
The sides were very close to an agreement in March when
baseball shut down because of the coronavirus pandemic. Comcast provides
service to more than half of the homes in the market.
>>>> Of course he cannot speak for Comcast because Comcast holds all the leverage and understands it does not need the Cubs to succeed.
It already has a baseball team - - - its partner in CSNBC. And the White Sox have the buzz the Cubs had in 2015 but with a younger team.
The math does not make sense for Comcast. It's extended basic package in Chicago already costs $95/month. Cord cutting is still happening because of the cost. The Cubs wanted $6/month per subscriber - - - that puts the costs over a hundred dollars a month for most people who will not even watch the games.
In 2019, Cubs local ratings dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 (135,000 viewers).
If a cable operator has 1.6 million subscribers, but only 135,000 watch Cubs games, it means 92 percent of its customers DO NOT want to pay for the Cubs games.
By this metric, Comcast could only justify the expense if 135,000 x $4/viewer/month (last alleged Cubs offer) or $540,000/month (or a 34 cent increase in all customer bills).
By the Cubs financial desire and valuation, it wants $4/viewer/month on 1.6 million subscribers or $6.4 million/month. (Which equate to $76.8 million, which is less than reported TV revenue in 2019 by about 22%).
Comcast is in no rush to EAT $6 million/month for Cubs broadcasts when it has the White Sox on its own regional sports network. Why bail out a competitor?
And why should Comcast pay for Marquee when the 2020 season is still in doubt? By signing a carriage deal now, Comcast would have to pay Marquee whether Cubs games are shown or not. A network that has not gotten good reviews from those few people who actually can see it.
The Cubs ownership position was flawed from the beginning. It took too long to get its network in place under the broken and outdated Dodgers model. Ownership got greedy because of the built up debt and realities of overbuilding around Wrigley. Management arrogantly assumed that it could get a better deal than its past cable partnership. By all metrics, they are wrong.
July 2, 2020
MORE CHANGES
It is official: the minor and Mexican leagues have canceled their 2020 seasons.
If there will be pro ball, it will be MLB.
It is still a big "if."
With a 60 man roster for a 60 game season, general managers and field skippers are going into a new frontier. It is possible that a .500 team will make the playoffs. It is also possible that a 5 game losing streak could be a death sentence.
A few managers have already decided that they will do 6 or 7 man rotations. However, the starting pitchers may not be able to give consistent 6 IP/ start (this was last year's trend.) Middle relievers may be the most valuable players on the roster.
With every pitcher having to throw to at least 3 batters, the concept of an "opener" is still in play, but probably will not be used based on the lack of starters who can throw deep into a game.
However, as we discussed in the past, it may be time to think about pitching staffs as "pods," squads of pitchers assigned to navigate a game. The opening day roster is 30 players so most teams will have at least 15 pitchers available. In game 1, pitchers A, B, C and D are assigned to throw at least 7 innings. Players X and Y are designated "game closers" for 8th and 9th inning, if available. In game 2, pitchers E, F, G, and H have the same 7 IP assignment. In game 3, pitchers I, J, K and L are assigned 7 IP. Pitcher Z (the 15th man) is the "stopper," who can come in any inning to stop an opponent's rally. It is also noteworthy that MLB dropped the field player's ability to pitch in games so in blow out games, your reserve outfielder can pitch.
The "pod" system is probably ideal for a staff of all middle relievers and closers. But since MLB's restart is going to be less than a spring training, one should look at the beginning of the real season as an extended exhibition schedule.
The use of the DH will be problematic for NL teams. Frank Thomas said it took him a long time to adjust being a DH (almost an entire year.) When you play in the field, you have the rhythm of the game. Your mind is constantly in game focus. If you are a DH, you are on the bench - - - separated from "the action." Every at bat is like "pinch hitting." Rarely do pinch hitters put up MVP numbers.
Another change will be MLB coverage. Media reporters to access to managers and players will be non-existent. Radio and TV announcers may not even travel with the team. Social distancing means no locker room interviews or on-field celebrations. With no fans in the stands, telecasts will be either silent, erie or artificially enhanced by sound engineers.
But the biggest change could happen in 2021. If owners think they can use a 60 man roster for an entire season, the current MiLB development leagues could evaporate. MLB wanted this year to eliminate 42 team affiliates. Instead, it got them all. Minor league owners now see 19 months without a dime of revenue (95% is based on home game fan attendance.) Teams can save millions in minor league agreements if they have a 30 man roster and a 30 man taxi squad.
It would mean that there would be thousands of minor league free agents without a club contract. It would also mean that the minor league system would be all independent leagues without MLB support. It would make college players stay longer in school in order to polished before being drafted by a team. MLB could see colleges as development leagues like the NFL does.
The final great change from this pandemic season is the sudden backbone of the union. It did not back down from its positions. It is taking hard line stances against the owners as a prelude to the next CBA in 2021-22.
If there will be pro ball, it will be MLB.
It is still a big "if."
With a 60 man roster for a 60 game season, general managers and field skippers are going into a new frontier. It is possible that a .500 team will make the playoffs. It is also possible that a 5 game losing streak could be a death sentence.
A few managers have already decided that they will do 6 or 7 man rotations. However, the starting pitchers may not be able to give consistent 6 IP/ start (this was last year's trend.) Middle relievers may be the most valuable players on the roster.
With every pitcher having to throw to at least 3 batters, the concept of an "opener" is still in play, but probably will not be used based on the lack of starters who can throw deep into a game.
However, as we discussed in the past, it may be time to think about pitching staffs as "pods," squads of pitchers assigned to navigate a game. The opening day roster is 30 players so most teams will have at least 15 pitchers available. In game 1, pitchers A, B, C and D are assigned to throw at least 7 innings. Players X and Y are designated "game closers" for 8th and 9th inning, if available. In game 2, pitchers E, F, G, and H have the same 7 IP assignment. In game 3, pitchers I, J, K and L are assigned 7 IP. Pitcher Z (the 15th man) is the "stopper," who can come in any inning to stop an opponent's rally. It is also noteworthy that MLB dropped the field player's ability to pitch in games so in blow out games, your reserve outfielder can pitch.
The "pod" system is probably ideal for a staff of all middle relievers and closers. But since MLB's restart is going to be less than a spring training, one should look at the beginning of the real season as an extended exhibition schedule.
The use of the DH will be problematic for NL teams. Frank Thomas said it took him a long time to adjust being a DH (almost an entire year.) When you play in the field, you have the rhythm of the game. Your mind is constantly in game focus. If you are a DH, you are on the bench - - - separated from "the action." Every at bat is like "pinch hitting." Rarely do pinch hitters put up MVP numbers.
Another change will be MLB coverage. Media reporters to access to managers and players will be non-existent. Radio and TV announcers may not even travel with the team. Social distancing means no locker room interviews or on-field celebrations. With no fans in the stands, telecasts will be either silent, erie or artificially enhanced by sound engineers.
But the biggest change could happen in 2021. If owners think they can use a 60 man roster for an entire season, the current MiLB development leagues could evaporate. MLB wanted this year to eliminate 42 team affiliates. Instead, it got them all. Minor league owners now see 19 months without a dime of revenue (95% is based on home game fan attendance.) Teams can save millions in minor league agreements if they have a 30 man roster and a 30 man taxi squad.
It would mean that there would be thousands of minor league free agents without a club contract. It would also mean that the minor league system would be all independent leagues without MLB support. It would make college players stay longer in school in order to polished before being drafted by a team. MLB could see colleges as development leagues like the NFL does.
The final great change from this pandemic season is the sudden backbone of the union. It did not back down from its positions. It is taking hard line stances against the owners as a prelude to the next CBA in 2021-22.
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