LOSING THE CLUBHOUSE

Tony LaRussa is a fossilized dinosaur. His ideas about baseball are out of touch. His managing skills have been questioned all season. Some observers think his strategies and decisions have cost the White Sox at least three games this season. There were early rumors that many players in the clubhouse did not support LaRussa as their manager. Some think the players are winning in spite of LaRussa.
Things are coming to an ugly crossroads within the White Sox clubhouse.

The White Sox were routing the Twins, the preseason favorite to win the AL Central. The White Sox had built up a huge lead that in the late innings the Twins used an infielder as a relief pitcher.
On Monday night, Rookie Yermin Mercedes  drove a 3-0 pitch from infielder William Astudillo  deep to center in the ninth for a home run.  White Sox manager La Russa said Mercedes made a mistake, and the Hall of Fame skipper apologized to the Twins. LaRussa publicly stated that Mercedes was "clueless" about the unwritten rule(s) of baseball and that he would be punished for violating that unwritten rule.

However, prior to the Mercedes home run, the Twins bench was laughing at the White Sox who Astudillo got two outs against. Starter Lance Lynn defended Mercedes after the game. He called the Twins "crybabies" in their reaction to Mercedes hitting a HR in the 9th. "There are no rules when you put a position player out to pitch," he said. "If (the Twins) had a problem with it, then put in a (real) pitcher."

In the next game, Mercedes was the center of attention once again Twins reliever Tyler Duffey was ejected for throwing behind Mercedes in the seventh. Duffey threw the first pitch of the at-bat behind the slugger's legs. Duffey and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli then were ejected by plate umpire Jim Reynolds.

"It wasn't obvious to me," La Russa said. "The guy threw a sinker. It didn't look good. So, I wasn't that suspicious. I'm suspicious if somebody throws at somebody's head. Then I'm suspicious. I don't have a problem with how the Twins handled that."

Of course, no one believes LaRussa. It was an intentional "show up" pitch by the Twins. The pitcher was throwing at Mercedes. But LaRussa refused to publicly defend his player.

Nothing can lose a clubhouse faster than a manager not defending or having the backs of his players. Clearly, LaRussa "clueless" about what is happening on the field. By not sticking up for his player TWICE in consecutive days for doing NOTHING wrong, LaRussa has shown that he is not capable of leading the team to the playoffs.

But LaRussa is going to stay. He was an owner hire not GM Rick Hahn's choice. Jerry Reinsdorf has for decades regretted terminating LaRussa as White Sox manager. So he brought him back when Hahn had constructed a very good, play-off caliber team. 

When a team is fighting against significant injuries (the team has lost its entire starting outfield), a manager is supposed to support and rally the remaining players to battle. Instead, LaRussa was apologetic and weak. There were some commentators who thought before these incidents that LaRussa could be fired after the season. A few thought there was a remote chance he could be terminated during the season. But since the White Sox are still in first place (10.5 games ahead of the Twins), LaRussa's job is secure because he is Jerry's guy. And in the end Jerry calls the shots on the managerial position, even if it is detrimental to the team.

THOSE DARN SOX

Reporters, insiders, pundits and fans are perplexed by the White Sox pivotal off-season move.

MLBTR reports on the announcement and immediate ash fall.

The White Sox announced today that Hall of Famer Tony La Russa is returning to the organization as their new manager for the 2021 season. La Russa has agreed to a multi-year deal according to Scott Merkin of MLB.com.

La Russa managed the White Sox from 1979 and ran through the 1986 season. It appears that La Russa was owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s pick from the beginning. Indeed, ESPN’s Jeff Passan stated that the move to hire La Russa was purely a “Reinsdorf decision” while noting that others in the organizations “have concerns” about La Russa’s ability (or lack thereof) to connect with the club’s young core.

It’s been nine full seasons since La Russa last managed at the MLB level, with the Cardinals, and the game has changed considerably since that time. Data from clubs’ analytics departments has increasingly made its way into in-game decision-making, often generating polarizing reaction from fans, and the sport as a whole has moved to embrace aggressive defensive shifts and pitching strategies that defy the conventional wisdom which permeated big league dugouts during La Russa’s last run.

Since that time, La Russa has remained involved in the game in a variety of roles, most notably serving as the Diamondbacks’ “chief baseball officer” from 2014-17 — a stint that is remembered more for his role in overseeing one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory than for the team’s performance in that time.

After moving on from skipper Rick Renteria, it was reported that the White Sox wanted an experienced manager with a winning pedigree, which prompted many onlookers to speculate about Hinch and former Red Sox manager Alex Cora. La Russa does fit the bill on a fundamental level, having spent 33 years a Major League manager during which time he’s posted a .536 winning percentage, taken home six pennants and won three World Series titles.

Still, to say this hiring bucks the industry trend at this point would be making a colossal understatement, and the decision to bring La Russa aboard has already generated a rather perplexed reaction from those within the game and pundits alike.

LaRussa can be considered an old school hard liner, but he was in the forefront of creating the modern bullpen assignments in managing a pitching staff (more credit could go to pitching coach Dave Duncan). There is a question whether LaRussa's presence will upend the current roster chemistry that exceeded expectations in 2021.

There is no doubt that Jose Abreu can keep the numerous young Latin players in line. It is the vocal, clubhouse guys like Tim Anderson and Dallas Kuechel who could be a concern. They know they are ready, willing and able to win. Will LaRussa be a help or a hinderance?

It was also puzzling that the White Sox did not interview any other candidate. League rules require at least a minority interview, and it is claimed that LaRussa qualifies because his mother was born in Spain. But it did not matter because who is going to ruffle the feathers of Reinsdorf, who is still considered a leader of the MLB owners.

The other key decision points to come will have LaRussa's input: coaching staff and free agent roster decisions. The White Sox need to shore up starting rotation depth and middle relief. Right field is still an open for someone to take it. Will the Sox retain second catcher James McCann or go with their two minor league catchers? Is Michael Kopech ready physically and mentally to assume the #3 starter role in 2021? Or do the White Sox spend money on a big free agent arm like Trevor Bauer (another off-the-cuff speaker who can rub some people the wrong way).

 For years, local media has reported that Reinsdorf desperately wanted to win another World Series. It probably stung when the Cubs won in 2016, putting the White Sox back into little brother position. But the building excitement is on the South Side as the Cubs have hit a hard financial wall and barren farm system.

MORE CHANGES

It is official: the minor and Mexican leagues have canceled their 2020 seasons.

If there will be pro ball, it will be MLB.

It is still a big "if."

With a 60 man roster for a 60 game season, general managers and field skippers are going into a new frontier. It is possible that a .500 team will make the playoffs. It is also possible that a 5 game losing streak could be a death sentence.

A few managers have already decided that they will do 6 or 7 man rotations. However, the starting pitchers may not be able to give consistent 6 IP/ start (this was last year's trend.) Middle relievers may be the most valuable players on the roster.

With every pitcher having to throw to at least 3 batters, the concept of an "opener" is still in play, but probably will not be used based on the lack of starters who can throw deep into a game.

However, as we discussed in the past, it may be time to think about pitching staffs as "pods," squads of pitchers assigned to navigate a game. The opening day roster is 30 players so most teams will have at least 15 pitchers available. In game 1, pitchers A, B, C and D are assigned to throw at least 7 innings. Players X and Y are designated "game closers" for 8th and 9th inning, if available. In game 2, pitchers E, F, G, and H have the same 7 IP assignment. In game 3, pitchers I, J, K and L are assigned 7 IP. Pitcher Z (the 15th man) is the "stopper," who can come in any inning to stop an opponent's rally. It is also noteworthy that MLB dropped the field player's ability to pitch in games so in blow out games, your reserve outfielder can pitch.

The "pod" system is probably ideal for a staff of all middle relievers and closers. But since MLB's restart is going to be less than a spring training, one should look at the beginning of the real season as an extended exhibition schedule.

The use of the DH will be problematic for NL teams. Frank Thomas said it took him a long time to adjust being a DH (almost an entire year.) When you play in the field, you have the rhythm of the game. Your mind is constantly in game focus. If you are a DH, you are on the bench - - - separated from "the action." Every at bat is like "pinch hitting." Rarely do pinch hitters put up MVP numbers.

Another change will be MLB coverage. Media reporters to access to managers and players will be non-existent. Radio and TV announcers may not even travel with the team. Social distancing means no locker room interviews or on-field celebrations. With no fans in the stands, telecasts will be either silent, erie or artificially enhanced by sound engineers.

But the biggest change could happen in 2021. If owners think they can use a 60 man roster for an entire season, the current MiLB development leagues could evaporate. MLB wanted this year to eliminate 42 team affiliates. Instead, it got them all. Minor league owners now see 19 months without a dime of revenue (95% is based on home game fan attendance.) Teams can save millions in minor league agreements if they have a 30 man roster and a 30 man taxi squad.

It would mean that there would be thousands of minor league free agents without a club contract. It would also mean that the minor league system would be all independent leagues without MLB support. It would make college players stay longer in school in order to polished before being drafted by a team. MLB could see colleges as development leagues like the NFL does.

The final great change from this pandemic season is the sudden backbone of the union. It did not back down from its positions. It is taking hard line stances against the owners as a prelude to the next CBA in 2021-22.

THE COLLABORATOR

David Ross is the new Cubs manager.

It really did not surprise many people.

But it is a surprise hire if you thought the Cubs were ready to win in 2020.

It was no surprise because Cubs ownership needed a new "face" for the franchise after letting Joe Maddon go to the Angels. For all the "marquee" players on the roster, it was Maddon who talked to the press at least twice daily. Ross becomes the new hire because he was a popular, folklore figure from the 2016 championship team. He has a reputation of a good clubhouse leader. He had a "get in your face" attitude with his teammates. Whether he can transition from being a teammate to being their boss is an open question.

If Maddon was the only thing holding the Cubs back from a long 2019 post-season run, then one would have assumed that his replacement would be an experienced, championship caliber manager (Girardi). But the Cubs clearly signaled that they did not want to have an independent dugout voice.

The Cubs continue to spend a fortune on more layers of administrative baseball staff (like new directors of hitting and pitching) to feed more technology and information into the current team coaches (who are not going to lose their jobs with the Ross hire). Theo and Company have built a front office like baseball is a video game that they can control from their skybox. Reams of analytical data has replaced an experienced manager's gut instincts.

The press conference attempted to stress the "qualifications" of Ross to be the next Cub skipper.
Theo said the club had been grooming Ross to be the manager since he left the team in 2016. He has been a special assistant. He sat in on scouting meetings. He sat in the amateur draft. He spent this spring training shadowing Maddon. Ross said that he wanted to become a manager when he was a player, so he observed and learned from Bobby Cox and Maddon.

Not lost on anyone is the fact that Ross has not managed at any level. Ross has not coached at any professional level. If the Cubs were grooming him to take over for Maddon, why did not Ross manage a Cubs minor league team? He had three years to get some managerial experience.

But he did not. And the Cubs did not think it was necessary. Why? Because the Cubs are not looking for a manager but a front office collaborator. A person the GM and staff can control.

Just as an experienced manager would demand a working knowledge of what the team would do for him (i.e. spend on free agents, the health of the current roster and farm system) and a pledge from ownership to spend money in the off-season (as Maddon received from the Angels), Ross was in no position to get those promises. And the Cubs could not offer them.

Tom Ricketts clearly stated that the 2020 Cubs would rebuild from within, which was another clear statement that the Cubs would not be spenders in free agency. With the farm system one of the worst in baseball, and Theo's inability to draft, develop and promote a major league starting pitcher, next year's Cubs will be the same team unless major star(s) are traded for young talent.

But as the Nationals showed you can win a championship by getting rid of your franchise player (Harper). However, it only works when you have a young rookie phenom like Soto to take his place. The Cubs have a roster construction problem. There are no minor league prospects pushing for a major league roster spot.

Will Ross be a figurehead or will he put his own stamp on the Cubs? That is the million dollar question. No one has inferred that the players quit on Maddon. The complaint was Maddon was not getting the best out of the talent on the roster. But it may be that the front office continues to overvalue their talent.

A slow start. A rash of injuries. The first real 2020 crisis will show whether Ross will be an independent voice of accountability or another Cubs PR person.

THE NEXT SKIPPER

The Joe Maddon era is over. He was the most successful modern Cub manager during a five year tenure. But his message failed to get another championship.

There have been references to championship fatigue, "Winner's Traps," etc. After 2016, the Cubs team has been in a slow decline. Expectations were high; player performance was sliding down. Theo Epstein railed against "potential" and "performance" during spring training. He claimed everyday was a playoff game. The Cubs then stumbled out the gate. The Cubs never had a long winning streak to cause separation in the NL Central.  All phases of the team faltered down the stretch.

The Cubs have a major decision to make: who will manage the rest of the Cub championship window. The Cubs have two years left before Kris Bryant becomes a free agent. That is the window to win. But the Cubs ownership has tapped out on money as the front office has exceeded the luxury tax threshold (again). For the past two years, Theo's moves have been costly mistakes. What manager wants to come to a team that is financially hand-cuffed and on the decline?

As it was noted by Joe Girardi many times, there are only 30 such jobs available. It is a unique club. You take the opportunity if you can get it. Girardi really wants to manage the Cubs. He was on his own personal, local publicity tour. He has the experience, winning attitude and character to lead a team. He did so in the sports world's toughest market, New York.  But he is viewed as an expensive, old school manager.

The trend is to hire an inexperienced former player or executive that the front office can control like a puppet. Teams have invested so much in advanced stats that they are forgetting baseball fundamentals for spreadsheet data.

One has to remember that all of Maddon's coaches were not his hires. The three hitting and pitching coaches the last three seasons have all been management decisions. Theo and Jed Hoyer wanted to impose their philosophies on the team. Clearly, it did not work out well.

Part of the problem has to be that when a young team wins early, they get cocky and complacent. They do not think they have to work hard in order to win. They think they are as good as their championship ring says they are. They think they can just turn it on at any time and win again. But it does not happen. They press and then they fail under the pressure because they did not put in the hard work to repeat.

The Michael Jordan Bulls championship runs were fueled by Jordan's own personal drive to excel at the highest level and to win multiple championships. The 2016 Cubs did not have that drive. They sat on their laurels. Maddon did not make the players accountable for their underperformance.

But part of the blame lies with the front office which provided Maddon with a bad roster. The rotation was no longer a strength as the older pitchers began to break down. The bullpen has always been a mess. When you spend money on closers who cannot throw or who cannot pitch, that is a problem. The team overvalued its core players to the point of having no competitive depth. And the scouting and development departments horribly failed to draft any reliable talent to help the major league club.

A Cub managerial candidate has to consider the health of the team he is expected to lead to victory. There will be other major vacancies this off season (Mets, Angels, Padres, Pirates).

It is expected that the Cubs will hire a first time manager, The reasons are simple: cheaper and controllable. The Cubs are not going to spend $5 million on a proven, veteran manager. The going rate for a first time, no-experience candidate is less than $1 million.

There is an old saying "you get what you pay for." Some out of the blue selections have won (Hinch, Cora). But the new Cubs skipper comes into a clubhouse that has a lot of baggage. The players have not faced the consequences of their performance flaws. There is no one in the minors pushing to take their jobs.

David Ross is expected to be given an offer. Ross was a vocal clubhouse leader. It is one thing to be a player or teammate but it is another to be the boss. It will be difficult to turn his friendships into employer-employee relationships.

If Ross is not the hire, then the Cubs most likely will tap one of their internal executives or advanced scouts to run the team to make an analytical impact on the strategy of the season. Many players have quietly said that they are being overloaded with information before and during games. By having a new skipper being an evangelical leader of the stat age may be a bigger turnoff than Maddon.

BULLPENNING

In the evolution of baseball strategy, the role of the starting pitcher has diminished dramatically. In the past, including the modern golden era of the 1960s and even through to early 2000s, a premium position was starting pitcher. Aces were paid like stars. They were expected to pitch 7 or 8 quality innings for 35 times a season. They were expected to win 20 games. The mental position was that once I got the ball on the mound in the first inning, I would not leave until the game was over.

But there has been a sudden shift in pitching philosophy. The idea of a complete game by a starter is ancient history. Starters are now expected to only pitch through the 5th of 6th inning. Bullpens have expanded to 8 or 9 relievers making the bench for position players extremely small.

Tampa Bay started to carry this trend to a new level by "bullpenning" games. The stat mavens have concluded that starters get weaker as they go through the opponent's lineup a second or third time. Therefore, to eliminate that outcome, a manager will take out a starter, however effective that day, for a series of bullpen arms. But the Rays have started to adopt a more radical approach: start games with bullpen arms and let starters become long, middle relievers. It has worked as the Rays have the best team ERA since May.

Some people are not happy.

The Oakland Athletics are among Major League Baseball’s most surprising contending teams this season. The Athletic website reports that a late-season change in pitching philosophy could threaten to disrupt the relationship between the players and front office.

It all started over the weekend when the A’s became the latest team to adopt the “bullpenning” approach to pitching. Scheduled starter Daniel Mengden arrived to the ballpark for Saturday’s game against the Seattle Mariners expecting to begin his usual pregame routine. That’s when manager Bob Melvin informed him of the change in plans.

Instead, reliever Liam Hendriks was getting the starting nod as an opener, while Mendgen only knew he’d be pitching multiple innings in relief. The confusion admittedly led to frustration, and Mendgen’s performance suffered as a result.

Rather than go through one warm up routine, Mendgen was asked to warm up three different times before entering in the third inning. Seattle took advantage of the staggered Mendgen, scoring three runs in two innings. Now the entire A’s clubhouse seems to be wondering if bullpenning is necessary to achieve their goals.

The A’s obviously took notice of Tampa Bay’s success. Injuries to starters Sean Manaea and Brett Anderson left their rotation depth even thinner, Oakland's management decided bullpenning can help cover their rotation shortcomings. In long stretches during the season with no days off, a manager, including Cubs Joe Maddon, have had to resort to a "bullpen" game where a long reliever started hoping to get 3 or 4 good innings of work, then have the rest of the pen mop up. No starters were sacrificed in bullpen games.

Starting pitchers are creatures of habit. They prefer getting to the ballpark knowing what they have to do and when they have to do it to get ready. They have a set time to prepare for each game. They go over hitter charts with the catcher and bench coach. The pitcher starts his long toss and long bullpen session to get ready for the first inning. IN that preparation, a starter can see what pitches are actually working that day, and to adapt prior to seeing the first batter. It is totally different for a bullpen arm, who may only have 5 minutes to warm up (sometimes less).

“It’s going to affect the routine a little bit,” Mengden said after Saturday’s game. “But you have to adjust to it. It’s a little different sitting down for an inning or two in the bullpen. But playing at this level you have to be ready for anything and make adjustments on the fly.”

Mendgen adjusted well the second time he was asked to follow a reliever, tossing 4 2/3 scoreless innings of relief in Tuesday’s game against the New York Yankees. However, frustration remains in the clubhouse because such a drastic change came without any warning. Players like knowing what’s going on, and like being able to prepare ahead of time.

Whether this is a trend, or part of an effort to reduce costs (relievers are less expensive than starters) will be seen. Tampa Bay is not in a pennant race, but the A's are in one.

DYSFUNCTIONAL ORGANIZATION

Robin Ventura is not going to manage the White Sox in 2017.

Some may say good riddance. Others may still question the organization which put Ventura, who never managed at any level, in charge of a major league team.

Under Ventura’s leadership, the White Sox went 375-434 (.463) which included a second-place finish in 2012 followed by a fifth-place finish and three fourth-place finishes. The White Sox have now gone eight seasons without making the postseason.

Ricky Renteria, the current bench coach, is presumed to be promoted to manager. He was the short term Cub manager until the Cubs swooped in on Joe Maddon.

Renteria had been a coach in the Padres’ organization since 2003 and was promoted to bench coach in 2011. He left after the 2013 season. Renteria has one year of managing under his belt, leading the Cubs to a 73-89 fifth-place finish in 2014.

The first issue with the Renteria promotion is that it does not change the White Sox culture or structure. Renteria is like Ventura, not a guy will a dynamic personality. The coaching staff will remain pretty much the same - - - which may not motivate the players to play better.

The second issue is that the management of the Sox does not change. There is a conflict between chairman Reinsdorf's desires, President Kenny Williams retooling philosophy and GM Rick Hahn want to rebuild. Ownership wants to win now. The press thought the White Sox "won" the last two off-seasons with their roster moves, but the players woefully underperformed.

Until the management gets on the same page, the team will continue to struggle.

The third issue is why not have a full managerial search? Renteria may be a nice buy, speaks Spanish to Latin players, and a baseball lifer. But is he the right person for this job?  In San Diego, his forte was helping develop young players. The White Sox roster is besieged with veterans.

The White Sox strength is that the minor league system is filled with quality pitchers. The weakness of the White Sox is that the minor league system is devoid of hitting talent and positional players. This leads to a muddy middle of the road team in a weak division.

ANOTHER MAD GAME

When you take a risk and it works out, you are a genius. But if you should not have had to take a risk in the first place, one could say you are reckless and lucky.

The Cubs are a much better team than the AAA Reds. But it took 15 innings to put away the last place club. And in the process, it was another maddening game.

Joe Maddon ran out of position players in the 13th inning. That should never happen. But Joe continues to believe that he can mix and match players like it is a Stat-O-Matic card or video game. By the end of the game, three relief pitchers had played left field.

Travis Wood and Spencer Patton alternated pitching and playing left in the 14th inning like it was a 7 year old youth baseball game. Wood pitched the 15th while Pedro Strop, for no apparent reason, stood out in left field.

Maddon justified the bizarre situation.  "We were down to almost nothing," he said after using 22 of the 25 players on his roster. "Travis, my God, what an athlete. ... Travis made everything possible. He may have had his best stuff all year."

But it should have never come to that point. The Reds pitching staff is a mess, but the Cubs could only scratch out 2 runs in 9 frames. The Reds Brandon Phillips was hobbled like a 75 year old man after taking fouls off his ankle, arch and rib cage. But Hector Rondon blew another save, and that started a weird shuffle the lineup deck in Maddon's mind.

When Maddon put in 40 year old reliever Joel Peralta in the 13th, he replaced OF Chris Coghlan in left field with Wood. That move makes no sense. Period. Coghlan is a better defensive player. In a tied game, in extra innings, defense matters.Especially when the Reds had the winning run at second base!  Maddon could have always replaced Peralta with Wood without taking out Coghlan.

Maddon must have mentally justified keeping Wood in the game to get pitcher-batter match ups. Wood got to bat in the top of the 14th before going back out to left field in the bottom of the inning while Maddon called upon Patton to pitch. After Patton got an out, he replaced Wood in left field and Wood took the mound to get left handed hitter Jay Bruce out on a ground ball. Patton then came back in from left to get the final out of the 14th.

The Cubs away with the over-managing moves by scoring 5 runs in the 15th, highlighted by Javy Baez's grand slam to deep center field. But it did not stop Maddon from using Jason Hammel to pinch hit for Patton, requiring Pedro Strop to play left field in the bottom of the 15h.

After the game,Maddon said he had never used three pitchers in the outfield in a single game and was shaking his head trying to remember all the decision-making that went on to pull this game off.
And that is part of the problem. The decision making process of making so many moves leads to potential problems, including situations later on in the season. As many other commentators have said for more than a week, throwing players in different positions can lead to Kyle Schwarber injuries, especially using much needed catalyst Willson Contreras in left field.

Maybe things will calm down when Jorge Soler and Tommy LaStella come back off the DL. But probably not.

A MADDONING GAME

The Cubs played a five hour nail biter in Milwaukee last night/this morning. The Cubs won, 2-1, in 13 innings in a game where Maddon used everyone except the four remaining starting pitchers.

Travis Wood pitched himself out of a bases loaded, no out jam during which Joe Maddon played musical chairs with his position players. Kris Bryant played LF, 3B, 1B and LF all in one half inning. Maddon played five infielders at one time. And the scary thought of Javy Baez playing first base was bad enough until he crossed back behind the mound to exchange gloves with Bryant like it was a summer sandlot pick-up game.

Wood became the eventual hero at the bat when he coaxed a bases loaded walk in the 13th. CSNChicago reported that when Wood inheriting two runners in the 12th inning, Maddon told Wood  "Understand one thing: If you get out of this, you get an at-bat. That kind of jacked him up a bit. That’s just how he operates, man.” To escape a bases-loaded, no-out jam.  Maddon went with a five-infielder alignment as Wood induced a shallow fly ball to center fielder Dexter Fowler and a pop-up to shortstop Addison Russell. After retiring Hernan Perez and Aaron Hill, Wood earned his at-bat by forcing another pop-out, this time from pinch-hitter Martin Maldonado. Wood then bailed out the offense again by drawing a five-pitch walk against Carlos Torres – Milwaukee’s sixth pitcher – with two outs and the bases loaded in the 13th inning.

The game was saved earlier by excellent defense by catcher David Ross. Ross threw out four runners on the base paths. Two came via attempted steals of second base, and two were actually picked off second. Ross ran from behind the plate all the way out to the baseline between second and third on one of the pick-off plays.

Maddon pulled Anthony Rizzo for a pinch runner (Baez) late in the game when the Cubs were down a run. It was a curious move because in a tight game with the prospect of extra innings, Rizzo is the type of walk-off hitter you want in those situations. Since the Cubs won, and Baez scoring the tying run, made Maddon's move acceptable.

A concern was raised prior to the game that the Cubs seem to be lulled into losses by playing down to the level of their competition. Most of the Cubs losses have come from sub .500 teams. The Brewers are not a very good team. Last night they played without their best hitter, Ryan Braun. Still, the Cubs were baffled again by another young starting pitcher.

The victory did stop the club's second two-game losing streak of the year. But this was another nail-biting, long game where all hands were on deck. The Cubs need a long outing today from Jason Hammel and better offense down the line up.

THE SHIFT

It is becoming apparent that pitching efficiency is being driven by The Shift, the data driven positioning of the infielders to overplay one side of the field over the other. The Shift comes from the sabermetric analysis of batter tendencies against right and left handed pitchers, individual pitchers and game situations.

It is becoming so common that a third baseman is playing behind second base that announcers have stopped pointing out the alignment in the play-by-play.

What is head scratching is that hitters are aware of the shifts against them but they don't do anything to counter it. They continue to hack away and sharply ground the ball directly into the mitts of the shift.

Very rarely does a batter lay down a bunt to the vacated third base line. As we have discussed before, bunting is not in favor anymore with managers or players. It has become taboo or archaic.  But it is the only way to keep the defense honest and at home in their positions.

Just as I would bunt every time Jon Lester was on the mound until he could prove to me that he can throw to a base, I would instruct my hitters to bunt away from the extreme shifts. It is a single whether you bounce one off the right field wall or dribble one down the third base line. The purpose of batting is to put pressure on your opponent's defense. Hitting the ball directly at the fielders is making defensive play easy.

I'd like to a see a manager try to buck this trend. Reward players for bunting or slapping the ball to the vacant field.

THE BULLPEN DAY

Joe Maddon decided to "save" Dan Haren for Sunday's game. So he utilized a "bullpen" game for Saturday's contest. The weather was iffy, so he decided not to waste a starter with a potential rain delay. And with another double header up against Pittsburgh, he wanted to keep Arrieta and Lester available for that series. Those are all valid reasons.

But how he went about executing his plan was debatable.

The Cubs have 34 players on the roster, including a stretched out starter in Wada and long reliever in Richard. Either of those two could have started the game and pitch 3 or more innings. But Maddon decided to go with ex-starter Wood, then with Cahill (a former starter). That seemed to work well, until Maddon replaced Cahill with Grimm. Grimm is too much like Cahill. Richard had been warming up, so I thought at the time Richard would have been a better choice (lefty-righty then lefty). Grimm got wild and hammered around and the bullpen could not right the game.

In retrospect, it probably would have been better to start Wada, and if he had rust, then go Wood, Cahill, Richard to get to the back of the pen.

Maybe Maddon was not concerned since the Phils were playing their AAA team for most of the series. But a split series against the Phils feels like a major loss this late in the season. The Giants have now pulled within 7.5 games of the Cubs in the wild card. Plus, the time was to pounce on the struggling Cardinals.

MADDONING EXPECTATIONS

The local Chicago baseball beat writers really like Joe Maddon. He is a colorful guy. Down to earth. Has some good quotes. Makes their jobs easier. A few are starting to put him on a pedestal of the greatest Chicago sports coaches.

But he hasn't won a Cub game yet.

As posted earlier, Maddon was a sudden "find" in the off-season, just as valuable as a free agent pitcher. Maddon left Tampa Bay in such a quick fashion, the MLB is still investigating a tampering charge filed by the Rays.

Maddon has had great success with the small market Rays, who had to continually field teams with low payrolls and few stars.

Now Maddon leaps the ladder to a big market, big spending, historic franchise.

He was brought on board to teach young players how to be professionals, how to maintain a good clubhouse, and to win games.

How Maddon performs will be the final win loss record of the Cubs.

There are a few concerns. Maddon has said that his new players have immediately earned "his trust," and that players will have to learn to trust him. That seems to be a backwards approach. One earns trust through action. You can't trust a player to put down a suicide squeeze if you have never seen the player play.

Maddon also states he has a hands-off approach with his players. He believes that it is up to each player to be ready game in and game out. They are professionals, they should know what to do to personally prepare. This is a classic "players' manager" code. However, with a young team without strong leaders (Starlin Castro has publicly admitted he wants no part in any leadership role), a manager needs to be more involved in teaching the proper routines and habits to his club.

Without seeing and managing any of his squad, Maddon leads the Cubs championship expectation parade. A cooler head would have walked back the divisional title talk. A cheerleader is one thing; a pro manager needs objective assessments in order to adapt to game and series situations.

Fans hope that Maddon is the real deal.  We have seen established managers like Lou Piniella and Dusty Baker fail with the Cubs. Maddon has yet to realize that managing the Cubs is such a different animal than he could ever imagine. The honeymoon period may be a short one if the Cubs have their traditional slow start.

MADDENING JOE

As upbeat, laid back, humorous and gracious that Joe Maddon was at the Cubs fan convention, the expectations placed upon his shoulders is the weight of Sears Tower.

He was labeled one of the best managers in his generation. When he suddenly opted out of his Tampa contract, it was felt it was a heavenly godsend that the Cubs could pick up an experienced, winning coach to lead the young prospects to the promised land.

The Cubs have had a long line of saviors since the last World championship.

Maddon had two interim gigs with the Angels, in 51 games managed, he went 27-24. It took almost a decade before he became a full time manager with the Rays. In the 9 seasons with Tampa, 1459 games managed, his record was 754-705 in line with career .517 winning percentage. His teams averaged in 3rd place in their division. His club only won divisions twice, in 2008 and 2010. In 2008, his team was 5 games better than projected, winning the AL pennant but losing to the Phillies in the World Series, 4-1. Maddon won his only AL manager of the year award in 2008.

In his 48 replay challenges, he got 21 overturned for a .4375 winning percentage.

Maddon hauntingly compares well with former savior, Lou Piniella.

Piniella managed 19 seasons prior to the Cubs with four different teams. He had compiled a career .517 winning percentage as a manager. In his 23 seasons as a manager, 6 of his clubs finished in first place (twice with the Cubs) and he had one world series title (1990 Reds). His teams prior to the Cubs placed around 3rd in their division.

The numbers are historically close. Piniella got off to a fast start with a veteran club and got to the post-season. The expectations of the former Yankee (and the reputable glory of that franchise) were through the roof. But the Cubs bombed in the worst way. Piniella would later say that being the Cubs manager drained him like no other tenure had ever done. The fans and the team put so much pressure to end the alleged curse that the weight of the baseball world crushed him.

Now, Piniella had nothing to prove when he came to Chicago. He had his playing career and excellent reputation as a manager. He had his championships, he had his personal glory. He liked baseball. He was an old school lifer. He was jovial, likeable, spoke his mind, got along with most of his players, kept things loose - - - until the wear and tear of the Cubs broke his baseball spirit.

In some respects, Maddon is at the same crossroads as Piniella. The Cubs job will probably be his last managerial one in baseball for Maddon. He could cement his eternal legacy by giving the Cubs a century due championship. Or it could grind him up like a Chicago red hot sausage.

The only difference between Maddon and Piniella is that Maddon is taking over a younger Cub squad. Maddon and Piniella both managed second tier organizations to the post-season. Both managed in Tampa prior to becoming the Cub skipper. Only time will tell if this is deja vu.

NEW LEVEL OF PRESSURE

Lou Piniella, the veteran of the Bronx Zoo and many stress filled playoff games, never saw it coming. Laid back Dusty Baker was ground up like hamburger meal.

Now, Joe Maddon gets a hint of the Monster that will envelop his life.

CSNChicago reported:

A trip to New York reminded Joe Maddon of the nowhere-to-hide scrutiny that comes with this job. But having no OFF switch must sound ideal to someone who loves the bright lights.

“I’m walking down the street in Times Square to go to this cocktail party,” Maddon said, recalling his visit for the Lafayette-Lehigh college football game at Yankee Stadium in late November.

“There was the restaurant with the big windows. And all of a sudden a bunch of people start pounding on the window, from the inside out, because they’re all Cubs fans, pointing at Cubs stuff. You get a sense or feel of that very fast.”


>>> YOU THINK???

You are as far away from the epicenter of Cub fandom in NYC, and you are accosted by monkeys in a zoo!!

This is pressure you have never even imagined, now that the front office has rolled a pulled-pin grenade down the expectation aisle of the team bus.

Maddon has never had the scrutiny, pressure to win and the rabid fan base that is Cub nation. Maddon had been off the radar screen (doing good work by all accounts) in the literal backwater of baseball, Tampa Bay. How he handles the first failures is going to be the litmus test for his future in Chicago.

HISTORY MAY REPEAT ITSELF

It is said that people who do not understand or know history, are bound to repeat it.

Rick Morrissey of the Sun Times wrote on the Joe Maddon hire:

Baker and Piniella have said they were not prepared for the oppressive atmosphere on the North Side, a heaviness brought on by a century of futility. Nothing can prepare a manager for that, so it will be interesting to see how the fun-loving Maddon approaches the massive expectations. Baker and Piniella balked at being thought of as the Cubs’ Messiah. To wink at the pressure, Maddon might want to show up for his introductory news conference in white tunic, brown cloak, sandals, fake beard, all-seeing glasses and say, “I have come to proclaim good news to the World Series poor.’’

Maddon is not Baker or Piniella, but one could argue that Baker and Piniella had a better resume prior to taking the helm than Maddon. Maddon may be a goofy free spirit, crazy loose player's manager, but Piniella was no wallflower and Baker was an old school players manager (letting the inmates run the locker room asylum). When Baker left on bad terms, he inferred the r-card as being a major problem in winning on the North Side. When Piniella quit, he admitted that the pressure of winning on the North Side was something he had not expected; it broke him. And Piniella had gone through the intense media circus of New York both as a player and a manager. Perhaps, the Cubs managerial position is a coach killer.

Maddon is aware that if his team could ever when the World Series for the Cubs, he would never have to buy a drink or meal in Chicago for the rest of his days. He would become the next Ditka, a revered local icon. Such is the embrace of the City with Big Shoulders: a crushing one.

No one wants Maddon to fail. But everyone has high expectations for his success, even though he has not managed one game for the Cubs. A divisional title in 2015 is a last call drunken bet at the local tavern. A championship by 2019 (when Maddon's deal is over) is a goal, but not a guarantee. GM Jed Hoyer admitted that the Plan is less than 50% complete, so the team still has a long, long way to go.

CLASSLESS

NBC Sports reports that the baseball managerial fraternity is upset with both the Cubs and Joe Maddon. They are both called "classless" in the alleged booting of current manager Rick Renteria.

There are only 32 managerial jobs. It is a unique club. At the time Maddon opted out of his Rays contract, only the Twins had an open vacancy. Three other clubs just hired a new manager. And the Cubs after the season strongly stated that Renteria would be back in 2015. The Cubs then went out and hired a new hitting coach to complete next year's staff.

So when Maddon gets a chance to flee a sinking Tampa franchise, he does so. But most people think he would not jump ship unless someone, through his agent, told them he had a bigger landing spot than just Minnesota. And this potential "tampering" situation is what has the ire of Rays ownership, who feel backstabbed since Maddon publicly said he was staying with the team after GM Andrew Friedman left for the Dodgers.

Now, Cubs cheerleaders say "it's just business." Renteria is not guaranteed a job as skipper. But neither are fans guaranteed a championship by the front office, despite what the new fable is being spun to sell tickets for next year. Now some fans may rejoice in the fact that the Cubs are now getting down and dirty, doing back alley questionable deals - - - in the name of winning. But other people inside the game have long memories.

Theo Epstein is on the clock. He has only two years left on his deal. The pressure is on him to win sooner than later, despite being handcuffed by the "business side" of the organization. It is the budget restrictions which may have led Epstein to make a big name splash with Maddon, to cover the flak for not being able to land a top tier FA pitcher.

Since the Monday reports that it "was a done deal," by Friday morning there is no deal announced by the club. Maddon's agent stated that he was talking to several clubs, which can mean that there are other teams with managers who are willing to torpedo their current field leader, or it can mean that Maddon is trying to make the Cubs bid against themselves for his services.  Either way, this shows how rocky the road is for the Cubs to get anything done.

MAD ON MADDON

When Rick Renteria was hired as manager, he was touted as a guy who can develop young players, especially Latin talent with language issues.

Under Renteria's first year, the Cubs won 7 more games. That was pretty good.  Does that give Renteria a 7.0 WAR as a manager? No. Most experts believe that a manager wins or loses two games a season. A few believe that a baseball manager has the least influence in the play in any major sport.

In 2013, the Cubs has an offensive WAR of 15.9 and a pitching WAR of 10.5.
In 2013, the Cubs had an offensive WAR of 12.2 and a pitching WAR of 15.7.

Total WAR comparison: 26.4 to 27.9, an increase of 1.5 WAR.

Is this a better measure of Renteria's influence on the 2014 club? Perhaps.

But one has to consider the offense decreased but the pitching staff improved.

The key differences between seasons were three new starters:

Arrieta 5.3 WAR vs. 0.7 WAR (2013 Arrieta)
Hammel 3.1 WAR vs. 0.9 WAR (Feldman)
Hendricks 2.9 WAR vs. 1.5 WAR (Garza)

These three 2014 pitchers made an 11.3 WAR improvement over their 2013 counterparts. But the staff WAR only went up 5.2 WAR. The other starters, especially Edwin Jackson (-2.3) brought the pitching WAR down dramatically.

Joe Maddon's Rays won 92 games in 2013, and lost in the AL divisional series.  In 2014, the Rays stumbled to 77 wins, a decrease of 15 wins. Some Tampa Bay writers believe former GM Andrew Friedman left town because the well of young minor league prospects, the golden goose of the franchise, was drying up and a major rebuild was going to take shape now. Maddon may have seen the writing on the wall, too. At 61, he is in the last run as a major league skipper. He wants to win a World Series to cap his career. Tampa does not seem to be a serious contender in the highly charged AL East. At his age, he would want to win now.

When Maddon surprised the baseball world by opting out of his contract, every major league team except the Twins had a 2014 manager.  The Cubs had already said Renteria would return as the season ended. But does Maddon really fit the Cubs?

 Maddon is a "celebrity" manager - - - a proven winner, especially hard to do in a small market. That is the resume highlight. He puts a new face on the team. He is good with the media. It also strikes me that if the Cubs continue the small market payroll, Maddon would be a good puzzle piece.

On the negative side, Maddon could sit a season and have many more choices with free spending teams. Writers say that the motivation to leave the Rays is that he wants to be paid as a premier manager. He may not be comfortable with the Cubs rebuilding plan, or the lack of pitching depth. He may need real assurances that the Cubs will spend big money to shore up the roster in 2015 before committing to a four year deal.

History is also not on the Cubs side. There was a great deal of hope each time the Cubs hired a "name" manager: Dusty Baker, Don Baylor, Lou Piniella.  Each of those proven winners crashed and burned with the Cubs. Piniella remarked after his tenure he had no idea about the expectations and pressures managing the Cubs. It wore him out.

The other problem Maddon faces in negotiating with the Cubs is that the team already has finalized its coaching staff for 2015. A manager would like to bring his own people, if possible, to fill the vital roles of bench, hitting and pitching coach. But that would not be the case if Maddon joins the Cubs.

As of this post, the reports of Maddon coming to terms with the Cubs have been tempered by other reports claiming that negotiations are still on-going, but expect a contract to be concluded soon.

A MANAGERIAL NOTE

Cardinal fans are ripping their manager, Matheny, for losing the NLCS. It was the way he used his pitching staff which was the most damning for fans, especially putting in Wacha, who had not pitched in 20 days, to throw the 9th in a tie game.

Tommy Lasorda once said, "No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference."

Lasorda is probably overstating his case. Statistically, a good manager may actually win only one or two games for his team by his in-game decisions, but a bad manager could lose a team three to five. Since the game is played on the field, the players executing their assigned tasks are the most important aspect of wins and losses. However, there is recognition that a manager needs to put his players in the best position to succeed. Letting a starter who is out of gas continue to pitch, like Dusty Baker did during the Cubs NLCS, led to a demoralizing team collapse.

Lasorda's take on a long season is based on his experience. Every team will lose at least 54 games. Every team will win at least 54 games. So how a team performs in the remaining 54 games is the key to the season. A .500 team only needs to win 27 of those contests. So for a team to be good to competitive, the season really comes down to those last 27 games. 

But those last 27 games are not necessarily at the end of season. Those could be critical contests in April, where teams with great starts tend to be front runners throughout the season. It comes down to about 9 three game series. Even if you go .500 in those 27 games, your team would win 94.5 games.

If you have an ace starter going in those 9 big series, the chances are you are more likely to win. If you have another near ace quality starter also pitching those series, you are more likely to take 2 of 3 games. So that takes the equation down to 18 critical games.

Even if a manager is tuned to this statistical dissection, one cannot manage the post-season like the regular season. In the post-season, you must play each game like it is an elimination game. There is much more pressure on the players. A good manager will try to shift the pressure to the other team, by forcing play on the field with base stealing, bunt hits, long at bats to wear down a pitcher. A good manager will also use his pitching staff differently, especially near the end of a series. An ace starter may be a better option from the pen in a game seven than the set-up man. And these decisions are magnified by the situation; and second guessing becomes a blood sport.

So it is not an exact science to determine whether Matheny deserves any of the fan wrath. On the other side, Ned Yost of the Royals had been considered a terrible manager during his career. But his team, despite his reputation, is in the World Series. This is one of the quirks of baseball. You never know.

THE NEXT MANAGER

Rick Renteria has three years remaining on his Cubs contract. A great deal of Cubs observers believe Renteria is only a caretaker manager. He is supposedly good with young players; a teacher. But he does not have the track record to take a ball club from Point C to Point A (World Series).

What managers could be available in four years?

Current skippers whose contracts expire with Renteria are Bryan Price (Reds), Terry Francona, Walt Weiss, Don Mattingly, Bob Melvin, Bruce Bochy and Ryne Sandberg.

Bochy will probably get extended with the Giants, due to their current long term success. Mattingly does not seem to have the tools to get a superstar team to the next level. Weiss and Melvin are like journeymen players, meh. Sandberg is going to get an extended look in Philadelphia during its pending major roster overhaul. So this possibly puts Francona in play.

The Indians have continued to struggle as a small town franchise. It's player development profile has stalled and their prospects underperformed. Francona has a Boston connection with Theo Epstein. Francona is a big time manager, winning for the Red Sox. But at the same time, he helmed one of the great team implosions.

Cub fans would still like Joe Girardi, but he has 4 years left on his Yankee deal. And he had the chance to become the Cub manager, but declined to say in New York. If the Cubs are going to wait for Girardi, it could be a long and fruitless wait.

BRAIN CRAMPS

One would think, no, expect, that a manager should know the in-game situation before heading out to the mound.  The manager has a bench coach, pitching coach, and other coaches near him throughout the game. They should work as a team, discussing strategy, go over pitching and hitting charts, and making game adjustments.

So it is highly unusual when a manager goes to the mound and makes a seriously dumb gaffe.

Brewer manager Ron Roenicke went to the mound on Thursday night and signaled for a relief pitcher. The problem? No one was warming up in the pen.

Because Roenicke called for a reliever, he had to insert left-hander Will Smith into the game, without a normal bullpen warm up session.  Smith was only allowed the eight courtesy pitches on the game mound.

The Braves took advantage, scoring three runs in the seventh inning, coming from behind to take the lead before winning 5-4 at Turner Field.

"I feel bad about everything," said Roenicke, who took the blame for the botched communications in the Milwaukee dugout and bullpen. "It's going to be hard on me."

Ryan Doumit's pinch-hit single brought home the tying and go-ahead run after the Brewers summoned Smith, who was just sitting around in the bullpen with his jacket on.

This loss clearly goes into the "manager's loss" column. His decision clearly changed the outcome of the game.

Different pitchers have different warm up needs. Steve Stone was recently on the radio discussing the question of why some starters get roughed up in the early innings, then settle down.  Stone said that it because they don't warm up enough in the pre-game. Stone said the average starter throws around 70 warm up pitches before the game; some from the wind-up and some from the stretch. However, some pitchers (especially coming off an injury) cut back on the tosses and only throw 30-35 pitches. Stone thinks that is not enough to stretch out an arm or get a rhythm. As a result, it takes a luke warm pitcher two innings on the mound to get warmed up and in control. But by that time, the opponent may have scored a lot of runs.

It is up to the pitching and bullpen coaches to make sure their pitchers are sufficiently warmed up to play. Ryan Dempster was also quoted as saying recently that he believes pitch counts are overrated. He said he felt the best when he pitched 8 games in a row as a closer, than pitching every five days as a starter. 

There are some "quick start" relievers who can quickly toss 6 or 7 bullpen pitches and they are ready to go. But that also may be that they have trained themselves through "over use" to be ready quickly. Now, since many relievers are getting big money deals, management keeps pitch counts on relievers too. Some times a reliever will not throw three games in a row for fear of injury. 

A manager should know how many pitches it takes each pitcher on his staff to warm up. He should be able to anticipate when to get a reliever up in the pen and into the game several batters ahead of the actual game action. The worst thing for a reliever is being told to warm up, sit down, warm up, sit down over the course of a few innings. It leads to overthrowing in the bullpen, and being ineffective when called to the mound later in the game.

With all the technology and communications equipment available to a manager, there is no excuse for a call to the bullpen be such as gaffe as seen in the Brewers contest. It cost the Brewers a victory, which could loom large in a close pennant race.