With the Rays Chris Archer throwing his first career complete game shut out last night against the Astros, it is appropriate to review what is going to be the true value of Matt Garza on this year's trade market. In my view, the Cubs will not get anything close to Archer's value in return.
Since coming back from his disabled list stint, Garza has been throwing the ball quite well. He has had the reputation as a front line starter. He is making $10.25 million this season in the last year of his contract. He has been paid more than $29 million for a career 5.0 WAR over the last 8 seasons.
At best, a new team will have Garza for 10 to 12 starts, for an average cost of approximately $307,000 per start. Only a team that really needs a quality starter for the stretch run would pay that kind of rental per diem. This will limit the amount of truly interested teams in the Garza trade market.
Scott Feldman was a more affordable, therefore more tradeable commodity. At $6 million this season, the Orioles will probably get 14-15 starts, at a cost of approximately $133,000 per start.
For Feldman, the Cubs received two major league service time players who were on the downside in the Baltimore careers. Pedro Strop, 28, has struggled this season, going 0-3 with a 7.25 ERA in 29
relief appearances for the Orioles. The hard-throwing right-hander was Baltimore's
primary setup man last season, when he posted a 2.44 ERA in 70 games. Former top prospect, the 27-year-old Jake Arrieta was 1-2
with a 7.23 ERA in five starts this season. The right-hander owns a 5.46
ERA in 69 games -- 63 starts -- over parts of four seasons with
Baltimore. So the Feldman trade yielded two pitchers that had current ERAs over 7.00 and who were probably destined to the minors or waivers.
Now, the Cubs think they can rehabilitate both pitchers. Strop is in the Cubs bullpen and Arrieta is at Iowa. Strop has done well in his 6 IP for the Cubs, only giving up 2 hits for a 0.667 WHIP.
With a 1.688 whip and 4.22 ERA in 3 game starts for Iowa, Arrieta is not setting the world on fire. He appears to be the insurance policy starter when Garza is traded.
The best trade value to find is a team where a polished AAA player who is position blocked at the major league level. It is easier to find position players in this bind than pitchers, who can always be used in the bullpen. The problem is that the Cubs are looking for more long term prospects, maybe at the AA level. These prospects are the type that most teams will not give up for a two month player rental.
And player rental is a key component. Garza will be looking to seek more than the expected $13.5 million qualifying offer other starters will receive this off season. A team acquiring Garza cannot get a draft choice if he hits the free agent market. The team could try to negotiate a long term extension, but all signs indicate that Garza will test the open market. That will again lessen the quality of players coming back to the Cubs.
The Cubs want a lot in return for Garza. The Cubs would like to get at least three prospects in return for Garza, including a AAAA-ready starting pitcher (like Travis Wood in the Sean Marshall deal) and two low level prospects with high ceilings. The idea of giving up a young, major league ready starting pitcher to the Cubs for Garza is always going to be a tough sell. Many general managers will just take that major league ready prospect and promote them rather than mortgaging the future.
I highly doubt that the Cubs will receive any team's Top 10 prospects for Garza. At best, the Cubs will probably get an "older" Top 25 prospect and maybe coupled with a marginal major leaguer who would be optioned/DFA in order to open a space for Garza on the new roster. An "older" prospect means a high school draft choice who has been slow to develop in the team's system. He may be on the last chance mode (think Josh Vitters). So my expectations for Garza value could be like trading for a Rafael Dolis, Josh Vitters and/or Dave Sappelt clones.
Showing posts with label Feldman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Feldman. Show all posts
July 15, 2013
July 2, 2013
MARTY FELDMAN COMEDY OF ERRORS
The Cubs traded starter Scott Feldman to the Orioles for a failed former starter turned bitter relief pitcher with an attitude, Jake Arrieta, and some of Baltimore's "international bonus pool" money ($388,100) in the hopes of signing Baseball America's #1 foreign prospect, Eloy Jimenez.
The Cubs receive Jake Arrieta, a 27 year old pitcher. This season, Arrieta is 1-2, 7.23 ERA, 1,775 WHIP and 1.35 K/BB ratio. In his four year major league career of 69 games, he has career stats of 20-25, 5.46 ERA, 1.472 WHIP. His career WAR is zero. The only bright side is that he is paid the minimum salary. He is only the warm body needed in order to get the international bonus money in a "trade." Also included in the deal, the Cubs sent catcher Steve Clevenger and the Orioles gave the Cubs reliever Pedro Strop.
Strop, 28, had an excellent 2012 (2.44 ERA in 70 relief appearances) but has a 7.25 ERA in 22 1/3 innings in 2013, largely due to high walk (15) and home run (4) totals. Clevenger appeared in 79 games with the Cubs between 2011 and 2013 and hit .199 with a .262 on-base percentage and .275 slugging percentage.
MLB.com calls Jimenez the best prospect in this signing period. Jimenez, 16, called the "crown jewel of Dominican Republic baseball," is a tall and awkward teenager trying to find his way in the world into a 6-foot-4, 198-pound specimen who knows exactly what he wants to do with his life. He is an outfielder.
However, scouting reports are sketchy on him. One writer states that Jimenez he wants to be like his idol, Roberto Clemente. Scouts praise Jimenez's speed, gap-to-gap power (which is expected to grow), quick hands and baseball intelligence to be a corner outfielder.
But at age 16, he will not be on any major league roster for five years.
The Cubs have been looking to deal for international cap money for more than a week. It was rumored that part of the Marmol deal is to get international bonus money in trade in order to pay Jimenez his reported $2.7 million demand.
So the Cubs are basically trading a quality major league starting pitcher for a 16 year old outfielder.
Critics will call it not rebuilding but a fantasy moneyballer on crack. Not one of the Epstein-Hoyer international signees has made a lasting impact in the minor leagues. This trade is so far down the spectrum from even the Sean Marshall for T. Wood deal. Wood had limited major league experience and was AAA tested or major league ready. That is the blueprint on how to build a pitching staff; trading major leaguers for players just on the cusp of contributing for your team. It seems the Cubs shortsided themselves by needing international pool money quickly since Feldman could have gotten the Cubs ready major league prospects in return.
The Cubs receive Jake Arrieta, a 27 year old pitcher. This season, Arrieta is 1-2, 7.23 ERA, 1,775 WHIP and 1.35 K/BB ratio. In his four year major league career of 69 games, he has career stats of 20-25, 5.46 ERA, 1.472 WHIP. His career WAR is zero. The only bright side is that he is paid the minimum salary. He is only the warm body needed in order to get the international bonus money in a "trade." Also included in the deal, the Cubs sent catcher Steve Clevenger and the Orioles gave the Cubs reliever Pedro Strop.
Strop, 28, had an excellent 2012 (2.44 ERA in 70 relief appearances) but has a 7.25 ERA in 22 1/3 innings in 2013, largely due to high walk (15) and home run (4) totals. Clevenger appeared in 79 games with the Cubs between 2011 and 2013 and hit .199 with a .262 on-base percentage and .275 slugging percentage.
MLB.com calls Jimenez the best prospect in this signing period. Jimenez, 16, called the "crown jewel of Dominican Republic baseball," is a tall and awkward teenager trying to find his way in the world into a 6-foot-4, 198-pound specimen who knows exactly what he wants to do with his life. He is an outfielder.
However, scouting reports are sketchy on him. One writer states that Jimenez he wants to be like his idol, Roberto Clemente. Scouts praise Jimenez's speed, gap-to-gap power (which is expected to grow), quick hands and baseball intelligence to be a corner outfielder.
But at age 16, he will not be on any major league roster for five years.
The Cubs have been looking to deal for international cap money for more than a week. It was rumored that part of the Marmol deal is to get international bonus money in trade in order to pay Jimenez his reported $2.7 million demand.
So the Cubs are basically trading a quality major league starting pitcher for a 16 year old outfielder.
Critics will call it not rebuilding but a fantasy moneyballer on crack. Not one of the Epstein-Hoyer international signees has made a lasting impact in the minor leagues. This trade is so far down the spectrum from even the Sean Marshall for T. Wood deal. Wood had limited major league experience and was AAA tested or major league ready. That is the blueprint on how to build a pitching staff; trading major leaguers for players just on the cusp of contributing for your team. It seems the Cubs shortsided themselves by needing international pool money quickly since Feldman could have gotten the Cubs ready major league prospects in return.
BUILDING A STAFF
The Cubs have the hottest pitching commodity this season. Matt Garza will be traded before the deadline according to multiple news reports. Since returning to from the disabled list, Garza is 3-1.
The Cubs plan continues to be to sell off roster players in exchange for multiple prospects. In addition, in the past two drafts, the Cubs have selected more than 25 pitchers. However, the "best" two pitching prospects are questionable. Arodys Vizcaino, acquired from Atlanta for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson, has not pitched since 2011. He has had another set back in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. There is a chance that he may not pitch again. The other pitcher, Dillon Maples, has also had injury concerns which has kept him muddling around in Class A ball with very few starts. This season in 7 starts, he is 0-2, 7.89 ERA, 1.888 WHIP. Other recent high picks like Duane Underwood or Paul Blackburn are not lighting up their professional debuts. They are projected to move slowly up the minors to Iowa in 2015-2016. However, they may not be any better when they arrive than a Casey Coleman.
So the front office has stubbornly decided that the sign and flip starter pitchers will continue until the team can field a "home grown" staff of aces. That may be the plan, but it is also a high risk strategy that will explode in your face if your scouts and minor league coaches miss on the skill sets of those young pitchers.
The Cubs want to build a quality starting rotation. Every team does. Here is an outline of a solid starting pitching staff:
SP #1, age 28, 3.34 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 3.24 K/BB ratio
SP #2, age 26, 2.85 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 2.34 K/BB ratio
SP #3, age 30, 3.46 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 2.68 K/BB ratio
SP# 4, age 29, 3.83 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 3.13 K/BB ratio
SP #5, age 29, 3.59 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio
SP #6, age 29, 5.75 ERA, 1.540 WHIP, 2.32 K/BB ratio
It is doubtful that any general manager in baseball would not want to have such a starting pitching staff. Collectively, they are young, have excellent control and below average ERAs.
The example starting pitching staff is actually a real 2013 squad.
The surprise is that is example staff is the Chicago Cubs. (SP1 = Samardzija; SP2 = T. Wood; SP3 = Feldman; SP4 = Garza; SP5 = Villanueva; SP 6= E. Jackson).
Samardzija is a former reliever who found his control as a starter. T. Wood was a pick up in a trade. Feldman was a reconstruction project after Texas cut him due to control issues. Garza was part of a trade package. Villanueva was a free agent signing. And E. Jackson was the team's "big money" long term free agent signing. Only Samardzija was a "home grown" product (from a different regime).
Realistically, there is not one player at AAA or AA that can take the place of any of the Cubs top 6 starting pitchers.
The front office also boxed itself into a corner. Samardzija is arbitration eligible and will command high seven figures. Garza is looking for a pay increase toward the qualifying offer number of $13 million. Feldman only signed a one year deal so he will hit the free agent market to make Samardzija money. And the worst performing pitcher, E. Jackson, is locked in for another $ 39 million through 2016 season.
The Cubs signed a bunch of pitchers with injury or control issues in the hopes that they could have a better than average start so they could trade them in July. The irony is that the Cubs built a quality starting rotation but did not think they'd be this good. But they still need to blow up the staff because the team cannot afford to keep everyone.
Or so they say.
There are a few fans who believe that they have seen the lack of progress in the Cubs minor league system under the new front office to be worried. Other small market teams like the Orioles and Rays continue to bring up young 22-23 year old starters who have an immediate impact. These fans would rather "keep what you know" than hope your prospects will pan out in the long term future.
The front office has droned on that the team needs to have more pitching and depth of pitching in order to have a solid organization.
So if Garza is being sold as a quality starter, a staff ace, why wouldn't the Cubs want to lock in such a player?
The front office continues to push back the "contending" year in the rebuilding plan. Based upon the slow progress of the new prospects, it may be 2017 when Baez, Soler, Almora or Maples is "ready" for the big leagues. So Ricketts is not willing to spend $13 million per current starter for the next four years when the positional roster will not have any quality impact players.
By analogy, if one is going to rebuild a house, the builder does not piece meal the project. He does not take off a section of roof shingles, then stops and goes to dig up some landscaping. If a new roof is a priority, he rebuilds the roof right away to prevent further damage to the interior of the house. Then the builder tackles the exterior siding and then interior elements and upgrades.
The Cubs have four basic areas to rebuild: starting pitching, starting position players, bullpen, and utility bench players. At best, there may be one or two players at Iowa who can plug in a bullpen or bench slot next season. The current roster is filled with bench players who are actually trying to start or platoon. The Cubs have already rebuilt the starting rotation with quality arms, so the biggest problem and concern has been solved IF the team keeps it together. The Cubs could turn it around quickly in 2014 if they sign impact free agent outfielder, (like a Choo) second baseman (like a Cano) and Kris Bryant is the real deal and can play third right away.
But there is a clear signal from the Cubs that ownership is tightening the payroll budgets in order to pay for the Wrigley renovations. Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein have down played being active in the free agent markets in the next few years. They stress the draft and international player signings.
The Cubs appear that they will not stop and consider that their main problem, starting pitching, has been be solved if they keep the starting rotation in tact. They are saying that it is better to trade or release these current starters because they will not be good when the team is ready to compete. But the Cubs could compete right now, if the front office can fix the offensive woes of the starting eight in the field.
The Cubs plan continues to be to sell off roster players in exchange for multiple prospects. In addition, in the past two drafts, the Cubs have selected more than 25 pitchers. However, the "best" two pitching prospects are questionable. Arodys Vizcaino, acquired from Atlanta for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson, has not pitched since 2011. He has had another set back in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. There is a chance that he may not pitch again. The other pitcher, Dillon Maples, has also had injury concerns which has kept him muddling around in Class A ball with very few starts. This season in 7 starts, he is 0-2, 7.89 ERA, 1.888 WHIP. Other recent high picks like Duane Underwood or Paul Blackburn are not lighting up their professional debuts. They are projected to move slowly up the minors to Iowa in 2015-2016. However, they may not be any better when they arrive than a Casey Coleman.
So the front office has stubbornly decided that the sign and flip starter pitchers will continue until the team can field a "home grown" staff of aces. That may be the plan, but it is also a high risk strategy that will explode in your face if your scouts and minor league coaches miss on the skill sets of those young pitchers.
The Cubs want to build a quality starting rotation. Every team does. Here is an outline of a solid starting pitching staff:
SP #1, age 28, 3.34 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 3.24 K/BB ratio
SP #2, age 26, 2.85 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 2.34 K/BB ratio
SP #3, age 30, 3.46 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 2.68 K/BB ratio
SP# 4, age 29, 3.83 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 3.13 K/BB ratio
SP #5, age 29, 3.59 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio
SP #6, age 29, 5.75 ERA, 1.540 WHIP, 2.32 K/BB ratio
It is doubtful that any general manager in baseball would not want to have such a starting pitching staff. Collectively, they are young, have excellent control and below average ERAs.
The example starting pitching staff is actually a real 2013 squad.
The surprise is that is example staff is the Chicago Cubs. (SP1 = Samardzija; SP2 = T. Wood; SP3 = Feldman; SP4 = Garza; SP5 = Villanueva; SP 6= E. Jackson).
Samardzija is a former reliever who found his control as a starter. T. Wood was a pick up in a trade. Feldman was a reconstruction project after Texas cut him due to control issues. Garza was part of a trade package. Villanueva was a free agent signing. And E. Jackson was the team's "big money" long term free agent signing. Only Samardzija was a "home grown" product (from a different regime).
Realistically, there is not one player at AAA or AA that can take the place of any of the Cubs top 6 starting pitchers.
The front office also boxed itself into a corner. Samardzija is arbitration eligible and will command high seven figures. Garza is looking for a pay increase toward the qualifying offer number of $13 million. Feldman only signed a one year deal so he will hit the free agent market to make Samardzija money. And the worst performing pitcher, E. Jackson, is locked in for another $ 39 million through 2016 season.
The Cubs signed a bunch of pitchers with injury or control issues in the hopes that they could have a better than average start so they could trade them in July. The irony is that the Cubs built a quality starting rotation but did not think they'd be this good. But they still need to blow up the staff because the team cannot afford to keep everyone.
Or so they say.
There are a few fans who believe that they have seen the lack of progress in the Cubs minor league system under the new front office to be worried. Other small market teams like the Orioles and Rays continue to bring up young 22-23 year old starters who have an immediate impact. These fans would rather "keep what you know" than hope your prospects will pan out in the long term future.
The front office has droned on that the team needs to have more pitching and depth of pitching in order to have a solid organization.
So if Garza is being sold as a quality starter, a staff ace, why wouldn't the Cubs want to lock in such a player?
The front office continues to push back the "contending" year in the rebuilding plan. Based upon the slow progress of the new prospects, it may be 2017 when Baez, Soler, Almora or Maples is "ready" for the big leagues. So Ricketts is not willing to spend $13 million per current starter for the next four years when the positional roster will not have any quality impact players.
By analogy, if one is going to rebuild a house, the builder does not piece meal the project. He does not take off a section of roof shingles, then stops and goes to dig up some landscaping. If a new roof is a priority, he rebuilds the roof right away to prevent further damage to the interior of the house. Then the builder tackles the exterior siding and then interior elements and upgrades.
The Cubs have four basic areas to rebuild: starting pitching, starting position players, bullpen, and utility bench players. At best, there may be one or two players at Iowa who can plug in a bullpen or bench slot next season. The current roster is filled with bench players who are actually trying to start or platoon. The Cubs have already rebuilt the starting rotation with quality arms, so the biggest problem and concern has been solved IF the team keeps it together. The Cubs could turn it around quickly in 2014 if they sign impact free agent outfielder, (like a Choo) second baseman (like a Cano) and Kris Bryant is the real deal and can play third right away.
But there is a clear signal from the Cubs that ownership is tightening the payroll budgets in order to pay for the Wrigley renovations. Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein have down played being active in the free agent markets in the next few years. They stress the draft and international player signings.
The Cubs appear that they will not stop and consider that their main problem, starting pitching, has been be solved if they keep the starting rotation in tact. They are saying that it is better to trade or release these current starters because they will not be good when the team is ready to compete. But the Cubs could compete right now, if the front office can fix the offensive woes of the starting eight in the field.
April 6, 2013
FIRST IMPRESSION
First impressions can be lasting impressions. Scott Feldman's performance last night in Atlanta was bad. Chris Volstad bad.
On Friday his control was a mess, hence the walks, wild pitches and hit batter. Plus, the Braves stole three bases on him. He threw 102 pitches in less than five innings of work. In his Cubs debut, Feldman gave up four runs on five hits and four walks. He threw two wild pitches and hit another batter. He left the game with a 7.71 ERA and 1,929 WHIP.
Recall, Volstad's 2012 Cub season:
3-12, 6.31 ERA, 21 starts, 111.1 IP, 137 H, 81 R, 78 ER, 43 BB, 63 K, 1.617 WHIP
Recall, Feldman's spring training:
0-3, 11.25 ERA, 6 starts, 20 IP, 38 H, 25 R, 25 ER, 6 BB, 17 K, 2.200 WHIP.
Pitching coach Chris Bosio has not corrected the problem that the Rangers found in Feldman when Texas last season demoted Feldman to bullpen duty. But since Garza and Baker are on extended rehabs, Feldman is projected to start through May. There is at least 9 more starts for Feldman before Garza may return.
Yikes.
There has to be a report card soon on Epstein and Hoyer's ability to find and/or develop pitchers. In most organizational scouting reports of minor league talent, Cub pitching is not mentioned as a strength even though the Cubs drafted 17 arms in the last draft. Iowa is stocked with AAA arms. Chris Rusin is the default number six starter until Baker and Garza get off the DL. The Cubs traded Maholm for Vizcaino who is again on the 60 day DL with no time line to return to the majors (he may be out until next season). The overall record of Cubs finding quality starting pitching continues to be poor.
On Friday his control was a mess, hence the walks, wild pitches and hit batter. Plus, the Braves stole three bases on him. He threw 102 pitches in less than five innings of work. In his Cubs debut, Feldman gave up four runs on five hits and four walks. He threw two wild pitches and hit another batter. He left the game with a 7.71 ERA and 1,929 WHIP.
Recall, Volstad's 2012 Cub season:
3-12, 6.31 ERA, 21 starts, 111.1 IP, 137 H, 81 R, 78 ER, 43 BB, 63 K, 1.617 WHIP
Recall, Feldman's spring training:
0-3, 11.25 ERA, 6 starts, 20 IP, 38 H, 25 R, 25 ER, 6 BB, 17 K, 2.200 WHIP.
Pitching coach Chris Bosio has not corrected the problem that the Rangers found in Feldman when Texas last season demoted Feldman to bullpen duty. But since Garza and Baker are on extended rehabs, Feldman is projected to start through May. There is at least 9 more starts for Feldman before Garza may return.
Yikes.
There has to be a report card soon on Epstein and Hoyer's ability to find and/or develop pitchers. In most organizational scouting reports of minor league talent, Cub pitching is not mentioned as a strength even though the Cubs drafted 17 arms in the last draft. Iowa is stocked with AAA arms. Chris Rusin is the default number six starter until Baker and Garza get off the DL. The Cubs traded Maholm for Vizcaino who is again on the 60 day DL with no time line to return to the majors (he may be out until next season). The overall record of Cubs finding quality starting pitching continues to be poor.
November 27, 2012
ANOTHER ARM
Buster Olney reports the Cubs are close to signing former Ranger starter Scott Feldman.
Exactly, who in the hell is Scott Feldman?
Feldman, 29, has played only for the Rangers. He must have been their 5th starter because
in 2012 he went 6-11 in 21 starts (and 8 relief appearances) with 5.09 ERA, in 123.2 IP, with 96 K and 32 W, 1.383 WHIP.
In 8 seasons, he has a career record of 39-44, 4.81 ERA, 1.4167 WHIP. Not stellar.
His best season was in 2006 as a middle reliever.
In 2012, he made $6.5 million. The Rangers declined a $9.25 million option so Feldman became a free agent.
The Cubs will have to make a roster move to put Feldman on the team. I expect that Casey Coleman will be outrighted to Iowa.
Feldman is another experienced arm that the Cubs needed to patch together a 2013 starting rotation, and to give fans with blinders on some optimism for next year.
The starting rotation is now shaping up as Garza, Samardzija, T. Wood, Baker and Feldman.
The rotation could change if Garza is healthy and traded; and if Vizcaino is healthy and can start the season as a number one starter.
Exactly, who in the hell is Scott Feldman?
Feldman, 29, has played only for the Rangers. He must have been their 5th starter because
in 2012 he went 6-11 in 21 starts (and 8 relief appearances) with 5.09 ERA, in 123.2 IP, with 96 K and 32 W, 1.383 WHIP.
In 8 seasons, he has a career record of 39-44, 4.81 ERA, 1.4167 WHIP. Not stellar.
His best season was in 2006 as a middle reliever.
In 2012, he made $6.5 million. The Rangers declined a $9.25 million option so Feldman became a free agent.
The Cubs will have to make a roster move to put Feldman on the team. I expect that Casey Coleman will be outrighted to Iowa.
Feldman is another experienced arm that the Cubs needed to patch together a 2013 starting rotation, and to give fans with blinders on some optimism for next year.
The starting rotation is now shaping up as Garza, Samardzija, T. Wood, Baker and Feldman.
The rotation could change if Garza is healthy and traded; and if Vizcaino is healthy and can start the season as a number one starter.
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