With the Rays Chris Archer throwing his first career complete game shut out last night against the Astros, it is appropriate to review what is going to be the true value of Matt Garza on this year's trade market. In my view, the Cubs will not get anything close to Archer's value in return.
Since coming back from his disabled list stint, Garza has been throwing the ball quite well. He has had the reputation as a front line starter. He is making $10.25 million this season in the last year of his contract. He has been paid more than $29 million for a career 5.0 WAR over the last 8 seasons.
At best, a new team will have Garza for 10 to 12 starts, for an average cost of approximately $307,000 per start. Only a team that really needs a quality starter for the stretch run would pay that kind of rental per diem. This will limit the amount of truly interested teams in the Garza trade market.
Scott Feldman was a more affordable, therefore more tradeable commodity. At $6 million this season, the Orioles will probably get 14-15 starts, at a cost of approximately $133,000 per start.
For Feldman, the Cubs received two major league service time players who were on the downside in the Baltimore careers. Pedro Strop, 28, has struggled this season, going 0-3 with a 7.25 ERA in 29
relief appearances for the Orioles. The hard-throwing right-hander was Baltimore's
primary setup man last season, when he posted a 2.44 ERA in 70 games. Former top prospect, the 27-year-old Jake Arrieta was 1-2
with a 7.23 ERA in five starts this season. The right-hander owns a 5.46
ERA in 69 games -- 63 starts -- over parts of four seasons with
Baltimore. So the Feldman trade yielded two pitchers that had current ERAs over 7.00 and who were probably destined to the minors or waivers.
Now, the Cubs think they can rehabilitate both pitchers. Strop is in the Cubs bullpen and Arrieta is at Iowa. Strop has done well in his 6 IP for the Cubs, only giving up 2 hits for a 0.667 WHIP.
With a 1.688 whip and 4.22 ERA in 3 game starts for Iowa, Arrieta is not setting the world on fire. He appears to be the insurance policy starter when Garza is traded.
The best trade value to find is a team where a polished AAA player who is position blocked at the major league level. It is easier to find position players in this bind than pitchers, who can always be used in the bullpen. The problem is that the Cubs are looking for more long term prospects, maybe at the AA level. These prospects are the type that most teams will not give up for a two month player rental.
And player rental is a key component. Garza will be looking to seek more than the expected $13.5 million qualifying offer other starters will receive this off season. A team acquiring Garza cannot get a draft choice if he hits the free agent market. The team could try to negotiate a long term extension, but all signs indicate that Garza will test the open market. That will again lessen the quality of players coming back to the Cubs.
The Cubs want a lot in return for Garza. The Cubs would like to get at least three prospects in return for Garza, including a AAAA-ready starting pitcher (like Travis Wood in the Sean Marshall deal) and two low level prospects with high ceilings. The idea of giving up a young, major league ready starting pitcher to the Cubs for Garza is always going to be a tough sell. Many general managers will just take that major league ready prospect and promote them rather than mortgaging the future.
I highly doubt that the Cubs will receive any team's Top 10 prospects for Garza. At best, the Cubs will probably get an "older" Top 25 prospect and maybe coupled with a marginal major leaguer who would be optioned/DFA in order to open a space for Garza on the new roster. An "older" prospect means a high school draft choice who has been slow to develop in the team's system. He may be on the last chance mode (think Josh Vitters). So my expectations for Garza value could be like trading for a Rafael Dolis, Josh Vitters and/or Dave Sappelt clones.
