The Cubs have the hottest pitching commodity this season. Matt Garza will be traded before the deadline according to multiple news reports. Since returning to from the disabled list, Garza is 3-1.
The Cubs plan continues to be to sell off roster players in exchange for multiple prospects. In addition, in the past two drafts, the Cubs have selected more than 25 pitchers. However, the "best" two pitching prospects are questionable. Arodys Vizcaino, acquired from Atlanta for Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson, has not pitched since 2011. He has had another set back in his recovery from Tommy John surgery. There is a chance that he may not pitch again. The other pitcher, Dillon Maples, has also had injury concerns which has kept him muddling around in Class A ball with very few starts. This season in 7 starts, he is 0-2, 7.89 ERA, 1.888 WHIP. Other recent high picks like Duane Underwood or Paul Blackburn are not lighting up their professional debuts. They are projected to move slowly up the minors to Iowa in 2015-2016. However, they may not be any better when they arrive than a Casey Coleman.
So the front office has stubbornly decided that the sign and flip starter pitchers will continue until the team can field a "home grown" staff of aces. That may be the plan, but it is also a high risk strategy that will explode in your face if your scouts and minor league coaches miss on the skill sets of those young pitchers.
The Cubs want to build a quality starting rotation. Every team does. Here is an outline of a solid starting pitching staff:
SP #1, age 28, 3.34 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 3.24 K/BB ratio
SP #2, age 26, 2.85 ERA, 0.997 WHIP, 2.34 K/BB ratio
SP #3, age 30, 3.46 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 2.68 K/BB ratio
SP# 4, age 29, 3.83 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 3.13 K/BB ratio
SP #5, age 29, 3.59 ERA, 1.167 WHIP, 2.83 K/BB ratio
SP #6, age 29, 5.75 ERA, 1.540 WHIP, 2.32 K/BB ratio
It is doubtful that any general manager in baseball would not want to have such a starting pitching staff. Collectively, they are young, have excellent control and below average ERAs.
The example starting pitching staff is actually a real 2013 squad.
The surprise is that is example staff is the Chicago Cubs. (SP1 = Samardzija; SP2 = T. Wood; SP3 = Feldman; SP4 = Garza; SP5 = Villanueva; SP 6= E. Jackson).
Samardzija is a former reliever who found his control as a starter. T. Wood was a pick up in a trade. Feldman was a reconstruction project after Texas cut him due to control issues. Garza was part of a trade package. Villanueva was a free agent signing. And E. Jackson was the team's "big money" long term free agent signing. Only Samardzija was a "home grown" product (from a different regime).
Realistically, there is not one player at AAA or AA that can take the place of any of the Cubs top 6 starting pitchers.
The front office also boxed itself into a corner. Samardzija is arbitration eligible and will command high seven figures. Garza is looking for a pay increase toward the qualifying offer number of $13 million. Feldman only signed a one year deal so he will hit the free agent market to make Samardzija money. And the worst performing pitcher, E. Jackson, is locked in for another $ 39 million through 2016 season.
The Cubs signed a bunch of pitchers with injury or control issues in the hopes that they could have a better than average start so they could trade them in July. The irony is that the Cubs built a quality starting rotation but did not think they'd be this good. But they still need to blow up the staff because the team cannot afford to keep everyone.
Or so they say.
There are a few fans who believe that they have seen the lack of progress in the Cubs minor league system under the new front office to be worried. Other small market teams like the Orioles and Rays continue to bring up young 22-23 year old starters who have an immediate impact. These fans would rather "keep what you know" than hope your prospects will pan out in the long term future.
The front office has droned on that the team needs to have more pitching and depth of pitching in order to have a solid organization.
So if Garza is being sold as a quality starter, a staff ace, why wouldn't the Cubs want to lock in such a player?
The front office continues to push back the "contending" year in the rebuilding plan. Based upon the slow progress of the new prospects, it may be 2017 when Baez, Soler, Almora or Maples is "ready" for the big leagues. So Ricketts is not willing to spend $13 million per current starter for the next four years when the positional roster will not have any quality impact players.
By analogy, if one is going to rebuild a house, the builder does not piece meal the project. He does not take off a section of roof shingles, then stops and goes to dig up some landscaping. If a new roof is a priority, he rebuilds the roof right away to prevent further damage to the interior of the house. Then the builder tackles the exterior siding and then interior elements and upgrades.
The Cubs have four basic areas to rebuild: starting pitching, starting position players, bullpen, and utility bench players. At best, there may be one or two players at Iowa who can plug in a bullpen or bench slot next season. The current roster is filled with bench players who are actually trying to start or platoon. The Cubs have already rebuilt the starting rotation with quality arms, so the biggest problem and concern has been solved IF the team keeps it together. The Cubs could turn it around quickly in 2014 if they sign impact free agent outfielder, (like a Choo) second baseman (like a Cano) and Kris Bryant is the real deal and can play third right away.
But there is a clear signal from the Cubs that ownership is tightening the payroll budgets in order to pay for the Wrigley renovations. Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein have down played being active in the free agent markets in the next few years. They stress the draft and international player signings.
The Cubs appear that they will not stop and consider that their main problem, starting pitching, has been be solved if they keep the starting rotation in tact. They are saying that it is better to trade or release these current starters because they will not be good when the team is ready to compete. But the Cubs could compete right now, if the front office can fix the offensive woes of the starting eight in the field.
