Baseball free agency is getting very interesting.
Free agency was meant to give players freedom to find
a new club, balance family lifestyle with professional duties
and to make more money.
But for the two superstars, this FA season is turning sour.
They interviewed with very few teams.
Current reports state that Phillies, Yankees and White Sox
interviewed with Machado, while the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies
and Cardinals spoke to Harper after he rejected the Nats offer.
Both players don't want to play for the Phils (who seem to
be offering the most money). Both players prefer to play
for the Yankees, but the Yanks have no interest in Harper.
It just leaves Machado with the Yankees, who have signaled
they are not going to spend heavily this off season on players
and the White Sox, who have never spent heavily on free agency.
It just leaves Harper with the Phils as both the Dodgers and
Cubs claim not to have payroll room to sign him, and the Cardinals
don't seem to be the black knight willing to cough up $400 million
on one player.
One speculates that Harper may have to throttle back his 10 year
megacontract demand and take a 5 year deal with an opt out after
3 season (so he can get to FA again before 30). That kind of deal
could open up one or two more teams to bottom feed if the number
is not $40 million/year but more like $25 to $30 million/year.
In other words, Harper may have to settle for a J.D. Martinez
type of deal just before spring training begins.
And considering the current roller coaster stock market where
rich men's savings are are getting whipsawed with losses, team
owners are extra wary of signing a huge contract with problematic players.
This appears not to be collusion but basic economics. Teams are not growing
local revenue streams. A big market team signing a Machado or Harper will not
add any significant numbers to attendance revenue. Cord cutting has hurt
cable operators who see the sports license fees as a major reason households
do not want to pay increasing monthly cable bills.
Organizations are now more focused on the draft, international free agents
and the trade market to structure their minor and major league systems. Draft
choices are more important than major free agent signings. Major free agency
signings cripple payroll flexibility, can hit the team with luxury taxes and
potentially block rising homegrown stars in their minor league system.
Machado and Harper played so well during their career to earn a Tier 1 free agent
status. But by playing so well, they trapped themselves into a very limited market.
Teams and smart players who sign early in free agency, tend to do better at managing
the organizational budgetary pressures. Teams would rather fix their bullpens with
one or two relievers than sign a big money free agent hitter (with subpar defensive
stats).
Also, teams have wised up and do not bid against themselves. At the winter meetings,
teams interested in free agents gave agents their best offer (like the Nationals did to Harper
at the end of the season.) It is no longer an auction where the agent controls the flow
of bids or pits teams against each other. Teams with strict ownership budget guidelines
do not have the time or resources to go with the flow in an active auction setting.
Machado and Harper have probably gotten the "best" offers from the various suitors.
And those offers may have been less than their own perceived market value.
So the agents are playing the sports media card, telling Philadelphia their client(s) don't
want to play there (in hopes the Phils will increase their offer) or to have secondary clubs
make a second raise in their final bid to snare a superstar.
It is a cat and mouse, risk reward type of game that many teams have an advantage. But there
are always some teams that pay stupid money on players who underperform, get hurt or
handcuff the organizational budgets for years. All the big market teams have their golden anchor contracts choking their books. It is harder for player agents to navigate around those ships
trapped in their own dead money harbors.
Showing posts with label Harper. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Harper. Show all posts
December 27, 2018
December 14, 2018
WHITE SOX FREE AGENCY
The 2019 White Sox have a payroll of around $34 million. The rebuild has stripped the club of most of its veteran contracts. So, in theory, the team is poised to spend money on free agents. However, during Reinsdorf's tenure, the team has only spent $64 million total on one player (Jose Abreu).
But the buzz from the Winter Meetings has been that the White Sox have been talking to the superstar free agents like Bryce Harper. Most people scoff at the prospect of a superstar signing with a 100 loss team.
But the real bottom line for superstars is to go where the money is because
that is why they have high power agents.
There is growing case that teams like the White Sox are the only big dollar landing
spots for Harper, Machado, Kuechel, etc. If the White Sox want a marquee player
to be the face of the franchise, they can pay him and still not even break an $80 million
payroll because of the rebuild. They can be selling (like the Cubs did with Lester) all the
great (pitching) prospects in the minors so the turnaround will be quick.
The Sox drew 1.6 million fans in 2017. If Harper adds 5,000/game attendance (405,000)
the gross revenue could increase by $20 million (based on 2017 average cost to attend game)
which would be 2/3 of Harper's salary.
High attendance high payroll clubs like the Cubs do not have any ball park revenue growth
to justify signing a big money free agent. Signing Harper would not increase attendance revenues at Wrigley Field.
Would a superstar like Harper want to be the "brand" of the White Sox. Clearly, if he was, he would get local endorsement deals and his No. 34 jersey would be a top seller. But those in Washington think Harper's personality does not fit that role. He wants to be plugged into a veteran, high win team who can win a championship or two. That is why he has been trolling the Cubs to sign him so he would not have to "carry" the team.
There may be a mystery team in the Harper sweepstakes. For example, the Giants are saying they are in a state of change. They are willing to entertain offers on Bumgartner. They have only 12 veterans on the roster but the projected payroll for 2019 is around $175 million. Adding a $30 million player is feasible to be under the luxury tax threshold, but you could spend the same amount and acquire 5 or 6 second tier free agents to actually create a competitive roster.
Harper's agent, Scott Boras, is still playing the preachy waiting game. It did not work well for last year's client, J.D. Martinez, who signed a team friendly deal with Red Sox prior to the start of spring training. One would think an agent would want to get a deal done sooner than later because teams are now more focused on trading for roster changes than signing free agents.
But the buzz from the Winter Meetings has been that the White Sox have been talking to the superstar free agents like Bryce Harper. Most people scoff at the prospect of a superstar signing with a 100 loss team.
But the real bottom line for superstars is to go where the money is because
that is why they have high power agents.
There is growing case that teams like the White Sox are the only big dollar landing
spots for Harper, Machado, Kuechel, etc. If the White Sox want a marquee player
to be the face of the franchise, they can pay him and still not even break an $80 million
payroll because of the rebuild. They can be selling (like the Cubs did with Lester) all the
great (pitching) prospects in the minors so the turnaround will be quick.
The Sox drew 1.6 million fans in 2017. If Harper adds 5,000/game attendance (405,000)
the gross revenue could increase by $20 million (based on 2017 average cost to attend game)
which would be 2/3 of Harper's salary.
to justify signing a big money free agent. Signing Harper would not increase attendance revenues at Wrigley Field.
Would a superstar like Harper want to be the "brand" of the White Sox. Clearly, if he was, he would get local endorsement deals and his No. 34 jersey would be a top seller. But those in Washington think Harper's personality does not fit that role. He wants to be plugged into a veteran, high win team who can win a championship or two. That is why he has been trolling the Cubs to sign him so he would not have to "carry" the team.
There may be a mystery team in the Harper sweepstakes. For example, the Giants are saying they are in a state of change. They are willing to entertain offers on Bumgartner. They have only 12 veterans on the roster but the projected payroll for 2019 is around $175 million. Adding a $30 million player is feasible to be under the luxury tax threshold, but you could spend the same amount and acquire 5 or 6 second tier free agents to actually create a competitive roster.
Harper's agent, Scott Boras, is still playing the preachy waiting game. It did not work well for last year's client, J.D. Martinez, who signed a team friendly deal with Red Sox prior to the start of spring training. One would think an agent would want to get a deal done sooner than later because teams are now more focused on trading for roster changes than signing free agents.
October 26, 2018
HARPER'S FAIRY TALE
Bryce Harper has been waiting for this pay day since he was called up at age 19.
Now at 26, he can get a mega long term deal as a free agent. He has a super agent in Scott Boras.
There are several problems on the bumpy road to mega wealth as the highest paid baseball player in history.
First, he had a down season.
Second, the free agent market dipped significantly last season. There are several big market big spenders who have had enough of luxury tax penalties to stop their spendthift ways.
Third, Harper is a one dimensional player. His defense continues to slide from below average to bad.
Fourth, he has a growing reputation as a clubhouse diva.
Bruce Levine reported this week that Harper's "starting" point for negotiations is 10 years/$350 million. The agent is trying to set the bar higher than Giancarlo Stanton's current record deal of $325 million.
But in comparative terms, Stanton has earned more of his contract than Harper is asking for.
Stanton:
2018 4.0 WAR .266 BA 38 HR 100 RBI
2017 7.6 WAR .281 BA 59 HR 132 RBI
2016 2.6 WAR .281 BA 27 HR 74 RBI (119 GP)
Harper
2018 1.7 WAR .249 BA 34 HR 100 RBI
2017 4.7 WAR .319 BA 29 HR 87 RBI (111 GP)
2016 1.5 WAR .243 BA 24 HR 86 RBI
In 9 seasons, Stanton has 39.2 WAR (an average of 4.36 WAR).
In 7 seasons, Harper has 27.4 WAR (an average of 3.91 WAR).
For a valuation standard, Stanton is still worth .45 WAR per season more than Harper.
On a salary formula basis, Stanton is worth $2.475 million per season more than Harper.
Stanton is set to make $26 million in 2019.
Harper would then project to make only $23.525 million or only $235.25 million over ten years.
If Harper is set on signing a $350 million deal, he may have to wait a long time.
Last year, JD Martinez held out but had to sign a five year, $110 million deal with the Red Sox. Martinez had a 6.4 WAR in 2018 and his team is in the World Series. (Martinez does have several opt out clauses including after the 2019 season, but the market may not have changed by then.)
In order to boost a deal, Harper needs to have more than one club after his services. The only club remotely interested in Harper has been his old team, the Nationals. But the Nats are on the verge of a rebuild as their veteran roster has to start to turn over.
The Phillies could be another suitor. The Phils overachieved last season, but its front office would have to weigh routing their rebuilding process with a high price veteran. Nick Williams is penciled in as the Phils RF for 2019.
The usual big money spenders will probably be quiet this off-season: Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees and Angels. The Rangers and Braves may spend money on pitching but not position players.
We will know after the Winter Meetings in December if the free agent market will continue to cool.
Now at 26, he can get a mega long term deal as a free agent. He has a super agent in Scott Boras.
There are several problems on the bumpy road to mega wealth as the highest paid baseball player in history.
First, he had a down season.
Second, the free agent market dipped significantly last season. There are several big market big spenders who have had enough of luxury tax penalties to stop their spendthift ways.
Third, Harper is a one dimensional player. His defense continues to slide from below average to bad.
Fourth, he has a growing reputation as a clubhouse diva.
Bruce Levine reported this week that Harper's "starting" point for negotiations is 10 years/$350 million. The agent is trying to set the bar higher than Giancarlo Stanton's current record deal of $325 million.
But in comparative terms, Stanton has earned more of his contract than Harper is asking for.
Stanton:
2018 4.0 WAR .266 BA 38 HR 100 RBI
2017 7.6 WAR .281 BA 59 HR 132 RBI
2016 2.6 WAR .281 BA 27 HR 74 RBI (119 GP)
Harper
2018 1.7 WAR .249 BA 34 HR 100 RBI
2017 4.7 WAR .319 BA 29 HR 87 RBI (111 GP)
2016 1.5 WAR .243 BA 24 HR 86 RBI
In 9 seasons, Stanton has 39.2 WAR (an average of 4.36 WAR).
In 7 seasons, Harper has 27.4 WAR (an average of 3.91 WAR).
For a valuation standard, Stanton is still worth .45 WAR per season more than Harper.
On a salary formula basis, Stanton is worth $2.475 million per season more than Harper.
Stanton is set to make $26 million in 2019.
Harper would then project to make only $23.525 million or only $235.25 million over ten years.
If Harper is set on signing a $350 million deal, he may have to wait a long time.
Last year, JD Martinez held out but had to sign a five year, $110 million deal with the Red Sox. Martinez had a 6.4 WAR in 2018 and his team is in the World Series. (Martinez does have several opt out clauses including after the 2019 season, but the market may not have changed by then.)
In order to boost a deal, Harper needs to have more than one club after his services. The only club remotely interested in Harper has been his old team, the Nationals. But the Nats are on the verge of a rebuild as their veteran roster has to start to turn over.
The Phillies could be another suitor. The Phils overachieved last season, but its front office would have to weigh routing their rebuilding process with a high price veteran. Nick Williams is penciled in as the Phils RF for 2019.
The usual big money spenders will probably be quiet this off-season: Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees and Angels. The Rangers and Braves may spend money on pitching but not position players.
We will know after the Winter Meetings in December if the free agent market will continue to cool.
May 25, 2015
HARPER's PACE
Bryce Harper comes into the Cubs series with 16 HRs and 41 RBI. He appears on record setting pace. But Harper does not get the positive accolades of a Mike Trout because Harper is a bit of a loose cannon. He was ejected twice last week from games. He is reckless in the field. He is animated on the bench.
As a result, his career high in games played is 139. On that pace, he would end 2015 with 51 HR and 130 RBI.
But there was some hint that he could challenge the big record: Hack Wilson's.
In 1930, Cub OF Wilson tallied an amazing 191 RBI with 56 HR. He did it in 155 games played.
If Harper plays 155 games this year, his pace would get him to the 56 HR mark, but only to 144 RBI.
Which again, shows how outrageous is Wilson's record.
As a result, his career high in games played is 139. On that pace, he would end 2015 with 51 HR and 130 RBI.
But there was some hint that he could challenge the big record: Hack Wilson's.
In 1930, Cub OF Wilson tallied an amazing 191 RBI with 56 HR. He did it in 155 games played.
If Harper plays 155 games this year, his pace would get him to the 56 HR mark, but only to 144 RBI.
Which again, shows how outrageous is Wilson's record.
May 8, 2014
HUSTLE
When Bryce Harper got benched for not running out a tapped grounder back to the mound (which I disagreed with the manager's decision), the two schools of thought are a) always hustle and b) don't hurt yourself.
Harper's bench play - - - he got out of the box when the pitcher already had the ball and was throwing to first. There is no reason for Harper, on that play, to sprint down first and risk a hammy injury. But the Nationals manager wanted to set an example, so he pulled Harper from the game. (A columnist later said that move probably cost the team the game as Harper's batting slot came up in a critical time in the 8th and the utility player could not get a hit.)
Fans like players who hustle. It is the physical means of showing that you are giving effort. It is the performance that fans want to see. I get that; but baseball is a long season. You have to play smart, not reckless.
And a few weeks later, Harper is hustling around second to steam into third base. He slides head first and jams his thumb. He is gone to the disabled list for at least two weeks. Now, no one criticized Harper for legging it into third or his slide. But it was his slide that was the problem.
Teams allegedly go to spring training to work on the fundamentals of the game. It is apparent that base running and especially sliding is not taught at the major league level. There really is no reason to slide head first into any base. A runners momentum engine is his legs not his upper body. It actually slows down a player when he dives toward a bag instead of running and sliding with his legs.
Why coaches don't realize this or drill in the base running fundamentals is baffling since offense stats are down, and teams need to manufacture more runs in order to stay competitive.
The golden era of base running had to do with the stealers, like Maury Wills and Ricky Henderson, who can steal 100 bases a year. A single or a walk to an accomplished base runner was like hitting a lead off double every game. But ever since the Steroid Era, the game has shifted to individual stats like HR, RBI, Slugging Percentage - - - the numbers that generate the big money contracts. The wily base stealer is no longer a priority for most major league clubs.
A player who wants to go out and perform at 100% is fine if he has the fundamentals to keep himself from getting hurt. It is like giving your 11 year old the keys to your sports car so he can go a few laps around the block. He may get around the first corner fine, but once he accelerates the odds are he will crash and burn on the next corner.
Some managers and player agents treat their star players like thoroughbred horses. They are pampered until race day when they are whipped into a frenzy. But baseball players should be seen more like work horses who are built not for a mile and half race but a four hour work day.
Harper's bench play - - - he got out of the box when the pitcher already had the ball and was throwing to first. There is no reason for Harper, on that play, to sprint down first and risk a hammy injury. But the Nationals manager wanted to set an example, so he pulled Harper from the game. (A columnist later said that move probably cost the team the game as Harper's batting slot came up in a critical time in the 8th and the utility player could not get a hit.)
Fans like players who hustle. It is the physical means of showing that you are giving effort. It is the performance that fans want to see. I get that; but baseball is a long season. You have to play smart, not reckless.
And a few weeks later, Harper is hustling around second to steam into third base. He slides head first and jams his thumb. He is gone to the disabled list for at least two weeks. Now, no one criticized Harper for legging it into third or his slide. But it was his slide that was the problem.
Teams allegedly go to spring training to work on the fundamentals of the game. It is apparent that base running and especially sliding is not taught at the major league level. There really is no reason to slide head first into any base. A runners momentum engine is his legs not his upper body. It actually slows down a player when he dives toward a bag instead of running and sliding with his legs.
Why coaches don't realize this or drill in the base running fundamentals is baffling since offense stats are down, and teams need to manufacture more runs in order to stay competitive.
The golden era of base running had to do with the stealers, like Maury Wills and Ricky Henderson, who can steal 100 bases a year. A single or a walk to an accomplished base runner was like hitting a lead off double every game. But ever since the Steroid Era, the game has shifted to individual stats like HR, RBI, Slugging Percentage - - - the numbers that generate the big money contracts. The wily base stealer is no longer a priority for most major league clubs.
A player who wants to go out and perform at 100% is fine if he has the fundamentals to keep himself from getting hurt. It is like giving your 11 year old the keys to your sports car so he can go a few laps around the block. He may get around the first corner fine, but once he accelerates the odds are he will crash and burn on the next corner.
Some managers and player agents treat their star players like thoroughbred horses. They are pampered until race day when they are whipped into a frenzy. But baseball players should be seen more like work horses who are built not for a mile and half race but a four hour work day.
July 11, 2013
BRYANT SIGNS BUT MAY GET BURIED
Baseball America reports that the Cubs have agreed to sign their
number one pick, Kris Bryant, to the slot value of $6.7 million bonus.
It is the largest bonus in the 2013 draft and the biggest in the two years under the new draft rules, surpassing the $6.35 million that the Astros paid Mark Appel, this year’s No. 1 choice.
Bryant’s bonus also sets a Cub franchise bonus record, beating the $6 million that Chicago paid Cuban defector Jorge Soler as part of a $30 million major league contract last summer. The Cubs’ previous draft bonus standard was $4 million, which Mark Prior got as part of a $10.5 million big league deal as the No. 2 overall pick in 2001.
Bryant was the best power hitter in this year's draft. He was Baseball America’s 2013 College Player of the Year by hitting 31 homers,and leading all Division I players in runs (80), walks (66), total bases (187) and slugging (.820) while batting .329.
BA believes that his arm strength and patience at the plate are two more assets, and he’s also an average runner wtih good athleticism for a 6-foot-5, 215-pounder. He played third base at San Diego but may wind up in right field in the long run.
Bryant's season ended in early June, and once the Cubs get the third baseman signed, the team states he will report to their facility in Mesa, Ariz., to work out before being assigned to a Minor League team.
"We would need to get a feel for how rusty he is," Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said Wednesday. "Once we get a feel for his conditioning, we'll figure out exactly what the right path is. Certainly, he'll start out at the very low levels [in the Minors]. We're hopeful he can move quickly through those."
What?
Bryant stopped playing about a month ago. He is 20 years old. How "rusty" can he get?
Also, the Cubs plan to stick Bryant in "very low minors" which would be Rookie or short season Boise which makes very little sense. You don't pay $6.7 million to have a the best prospect in the draft sent to summer camp. Bryant played at a high level in college. He should be assigned to AAA Iowa to play third right away, or even AA Tennessee if the Cubs are going to try to make him an outfielder. There is no reason to believe Bryant could not be in the starting line up in 2014. But it is apparent that the Cubs front office is going to bury him in the low minors to impede his promotion curve from level to level. This would put Bryant on a three year apprenticeship or a 2016 Cub debut. This is to give the front office "more time" before their best prospects are "major league ready." But Bryant is as close to major league ready as any prospect in the system.
Yasiel Puig played 46 games at Rookie-A+ ball in 2012 and 40 games in AA this year when he was called up. Puig signed a big money IFA deal the same year as Jorge Soler. During that same time period, Soler continued to play in Class A ball (until he was injured). Other teams have found great success in promoting their star prospects early (example, Bryce Harper with the Nationals). Bryant should be no different.
It is the largest bonus in the 2013 draft and the biggest in the two years under the new draft rules, surpassing the $6.35 million that the Astros paid Mark Appel, this year’s No. 1 choice.
Bryant’s bonus also sets a Cub franchise bonus record, beating the $6 million that Chicago paid Cuban defector Jorge Soler as part of a $30 million major league contract last summer. The Cubs’ previous draft bonus standard was $4 million, which Mark Prior got as part of a $10.5 million big league deal as the No. 2 overall pick in 2001.
Bryant was the best power hitter in this year's draft. He was Baseball America’s 2013 College Player of the Year by hitting 31 homers,and leading all Division I players in runs (80), walks (66), total bases (187) and slugging (.820) while batting .329.
BA believes that his arm strength and patience at the plate are two more assets, and he’s also an average runner wtih good athleticism for a 6-foot-5, 215-pounder. He played third base at San Diego but may wind up in right field in the long run.
Bryant's season ended in early June, and once the Cubs get the third baseman signed, the team states he will report to their facility in Mesa, Ariz., to work out before being assigned to a Minor League team.
"We would need to get a feel for how rusty he is," Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer said Wednesday. "Once we get a feel for his conditioning, we'll figure out exactly what the right path is. Certainly, he'll start out at the very low levels [in the Minors]. We're hopeful he can move quickly through those."
What?
Bryant stopped playing about a month ago. He is 20 years old. How "rusty" can he get?
Also, the Cubs plan to stick Bryant in "very low minors" which would be Rookie or short season Boise which makes very little sense. You don't pay $6.7 million to have a the best prospect in the draft sent to summer camp. Bryant played at a high level in college. He should be assigned to AAA Iowa to play third right away, or even AA Tennessee if the Cubs are going to try to make him an outfielder. There is no reason to believe Bryant could not be in the starting line up in 2014. But it is apparent that the Cubs front office is going to bury him in the low minors to impede his promotion curve from level to level. This would put Bryant on a three year apprenticeship or a 2016 Cub debut. This is to give the front office "more time" before their best prospects are "major league ready." But Bryant is as close to major league ready as any prospect in the system.
Yasiel Puig played 46 games at Rookie-A+ ball in 2012 and 40 games in AA this year when he was called up. Puig signed a big money IFA deal the same year as Jorge Soler. During that same time period, Soler continued to play in Class A ball (until he was injured). Other teams have found great success in promoting their star prospects early (example, Bryce Harper with the Nationals). Bryant should be no different.
May 10, 2012
EXPECTATIONS
Bryce Harper has arrived for the Nationals, and people who have seen him play say "he's the real deal."
His quick rise through the minors is like the White Sox second baseman, Gordon Beckham.
Beckham quickly moved up the Sox minor league system. He only had 14 games in A ball and only 45 AA-AAA games in the year he was called up in 2009. His 2009 minor league season line was .326 BA, 4 HR 25 RBI .378 OBP.
When Beckham hit the majors, there was a cocky swagger to him. And he found instant success: in 103 games he hit .270, 14 HR, 63 RBI, 7 SB, .347 OBP.
White Sox fans were delighted with their Rookie of Decade.
It is one thing to play in the majors without any pressure of organizational or fan expectations. If you come in under the radar and make a big splash, people will take notice. Fast.
But ever since Beckham's rookie season, the expectations skyrocketed on the kid. So much so that he has never gotten back to his rookie season performance. There is always a notion of a "sophomore slump" for players, who suddenly don't have to struggle to make the team but feel more pressure to perform.
Geo Soto was that way, too. He had a blow out rookie of the year season, but has struggled with his average, power numbers and nagging injuries for the past few seasons. Instead of being a cornerstone backstop of the future, Soto is becoming just an average catcher in the minds of the fans.
In 2011, Harper played 109 games in the minors. His stat line was good: .297 average, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 7 SB, .392 OBP. Now he is in the big shoe making his presence known in the Nationals lineup.
How well will Harper handle the expectations in Washington? If recent history is taken into account, it is not the rookie season that is the threshold, it is the seasons afterward.
His quick rise through the minors is like the White Sox second baseman, Gordon Beckham.
Beckham quickly moved up the Sox minor league system. He only had 14 games in A ball and only 45 AA-AAA games in the year he was called up in 2009. His 2009 minor league season line was .326 BA, 4 HR 25 RBI .378 OBP.
When Beckham hit the majors, there was a cocky swagger to him. And he found instant success: in 103 games he hit .270, 14 HR, 63 RBI, 7 SB, .347 OBP.
White Sox fans were delighted with their Rookie of Decade.
It is one thing to play in the majors without any pressure of organizational or fan expectations. If you come in under the radar and make a big splash, people will take notice. Fast.
But ever since Beckham's rookie season, the expectations skyrocketed on the kid. So much so that he has never gotten back to his rookie season performance. There is always a notion of a "sophomore slump" for players, who suddenly don't have to struggle to make the team but feel more pressure to perform.
Geo Soto was that way, too. He had a blow out rookie of the year season, but has struggled with his average, power numbers and nagging injuries for the past few seasons. Instead of being a cornerstone backstop of the future, Soto is becoming just an average catcher in the minds of the fans.
In 2011, Harper played 109 games in the minors. His stat line was good: .297 average, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 7 SB, .392 OBP. Now he is in the big shoe making his presence known in the Nationals lineup.
How well will Harper handle the expectations in Washington? If recent history is taken into account, it is not the rookie season that is the threshold, it is the seasons afterward.
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