TRAPS

Baseball free agency is getting very interesting.
Free agency was meant to give players freedom to find
a new club, balance family lifestyle with professional duties
and to make more money.

But for the two superstars, this FA season is turning sour.

They interviewed with very few teams.

Current reports state that Phillies, Yankees and White Sox
interviewed with Machado, while the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies
and Cardinals spoke to Harper after he rejected the Nats offer.

Both players don't want to play for the Phils (who seem to
be offering the most money). Both players prefer to play
for the Yankees, but the Yanks have no interest in Harper.

It just leaves Machado with the Yankees, who have signaled
they are not going to spend heavily this off season on players
and the White Sox, who have never spent heavily on free agency.

It just leaves Harper with the Phils as both the Dodgers and
Cubs claim not to have payroll room to sign him, and the Cardinals
don't seem to be the black knight willing to cough up $400 million
on one player.

One speculates that Harper may have to throttle back his 10 year
megacontract demand and take a 5 year deal with an opt out after
3 season (so he can get to FA again before 30). That kind of deal
could open up one or two more teams to bottom feed if the number
is not $40 million/year but more like $25 to $30 million/year.
In other words, Harper may have to settle for a J.D. Martinez
type of deal just before spring training begins.

And considering the current roller coaster stock market where
rich men's savings are are getting whipsawed with losses, team
owners are extra wary of signing a huge contract with problematic players.

This appears not to be collusion but basic economics. Teams are not growing
local revenue streams. A big market team signing a Machado or Harper will not
add any significant numbers to attendance revenue. Cord cutting has hurt
cable operators who see the sports license fees as a major reason households
do not want to pay increasing monthly cable bills. 

Organizations are now more focused on the draft, international free agents
and the trade market to structure their minor and major league systems. Draft
choices are more important than major free agent signings.  Major free agency
signings cripple payroll flexibility, can hit the team with luxury taxes and 
potentially block rising homegrown stars in their minor league system.

Machado and Harper played so well during their career to earn a Tier 1 free agent
status. But by playing so well, they trapped themselves into a very limited market.
Teams and smart players who sign early in free agency, tend to do better at managing
the organizational budgetary pressures. Teams would rather fix their bullpens with
one or two relievers than sign a big money free agent hitter (with subpar defensive
stats). 

Also, teams have wised up and do not bid against themselves. At the winter meetings,
teams interested in free agents gave agents their best offer (like the Nationals did to Harper
at the end of the season.) It is no longer an auction where the agent controls the flow
of bids or pits teams against each other. Teams with strict ownership budget guidelines
do not have the time or resources to go with the flow in an active auction setting.

Machado and Harper have probably gotten the "best" offers from the various suitors.
And those offers may have been less than their own perceived market value.
So the agents are playing the sports media card, telling Philadelphia their client(s) don't
want to play there (in hopes the Phils will increase their offer) or to have secondary clubs
make a second raise in their final bid to snare a superstar.

 It is a cat and mouse, risk reward type of game that many teams have an advantage. But there
are always some teams that pay stupid money on players who underperform, get hurt or
handcuff the organizational budgets for years. All the big market teams have their golden anchor contracts choking their books. It is harder for player agents to navigate around those ships
trapped in their own dead money harbors.

JUST DO IT!

The news broke early this morning that should have the Cubs front office changing everything they planned for this off-season.

Yahoo Sports quotes a Miami-based host for SiriusXM who has been all over the Giancarlo Stanton story, reported that the reigning NL MVP will not approve a trade to either the Giants or the Cardinals.   Stanton has a full no-trade clause in his 13-year, $325 million deal with the Marlins so he has all the leverage on where he will go.  He is under contract control through the 2020 season.
Furthermore, the report says Stanton "would" accept a trade to four teams and they’re the four teams that were in the ALCS and NLCS: the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and Astros. 


Clearly, Stanton wants to win NOW.


What the Cubs need to do is make a strong pitch for Stanton NOW.
Here is the argument for a blockbuster trade for Stanton I made on August 16, 2017:

1. He is young.
2. He is proven hitter.
3. He immediately makes any lackluster batting order better.
4. He is under long term control.

And his contract is such that if the market in 2020 is $30 million per year (Harper potential deal, now probably more than that figure), then he will opt out - - - and the team acquiring him by trade now is only out $77 million.

For the Marlins to take the PR hit to trade their star player, Miami will need to get a substantial return for Stanton: cheap controllable major league players and top prospects.

In the current situation, the Cubs may not have enough assets to acquire Stanton, who would be the perfect solution to the left field platoon situation.

The package the Cubs would have to offer to get Stanton:

1. Baez or Russell.  A controllable middle infielder with defensive skills is a premium position. One would think Miami, catering to Latin market, would prefer Baez's versatility over Russell (including injury history).

2. Schwarber. Even though Theo-Jed adore their Baby Ruth wannabee, there would be no position left for Schwarber if Stanton is acquired (since Heyward's best position is Gold Glove RF).  Miami could use Schwarber as a trade flip to an AL club for more prospects.

3. Almora. The Marlins need to market hometown players to their fans. Almora is young and talented to be a long term marketing piece.

4. Edwards. The Marlins would prefer to get a starter (like Hendricks) but the Cubs cannot spare one. A bullpen piece with some upside would off-set the weakness in Cub farm prospects since Edwards has a major league track record.

5. One of the Top 4 pitching prospects (De La Cruz, Albertos, Alzolany, or Lange) and/or International Bonus pool money.

If you look at this possible transaction from a long term Cub prospective, Stanton fills a need to provide offense, solidify the outfield and give protection to Bryant and Rizzo in the batting order.
It is also an affordable transaction.

The Cubs have $55 million in contracts coming off the books at the end of the year (net $46 million with Quintana's salary for 2018). Stanton's salary in 2018 is $25 million, leaving $21 million to sign a free agent starting pitcher.

As a footnote to the argument, the Cubs would have to either extend the opt out clause with Stanton or pay less in major league talent for a potential 2-year contract (maybe three players and a prospect). The Cubs spent $13 million/season on Chatwood to be the 4th starter. So the team is still under budget (but with several key roles to fill including the closer position). 

But this is a one-in-a-generation type move. The three years Stanton has to his opt out is the prime years for the current Cubs core. It also fits into the time frame for the Cubs to attempt to launch their own Cubs channel. Stanton is a superstar who solves a major problem in the current lineup: a consistent hitter that other teams fear.

A WHIMPER, A WHINE

Joe Maddon said the Cubs have four Game 7s in a row.

Such the optimist.

He also said there was nothing he could say to motivate his team in this time of crisis.

We thought he was the great motivator when the Cubs hired him.

Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Sun-Times got Bryant and Rizzo to admit that they are physically tired in this Dodgers series.

The whole team looks lethargic. The mental fielding errors show a glaring problem. The lack of plate discipline is the reason for weak offensive production. The whole team seems to be dragging their heels from game to game.

But how can the team be collectively "tired?"

Yes, the Nationals series was a roller coaster ride. But the Cubs have only played 8 games since the season ended in early October. And the Cubs had 7 days off during that time period. And Maddon rested his regulars prior to the end of the regular season.

Part of it could be mental, part physical.

And the way Maddon managed the Nationals series had a direct, negative impact on the NLCS. He has a habit of doing things drastically different in the post-season than in the regular season, especially with his pitching staff. Starters as relievers, relievers pitching more innings than normal, and the quick hook on starters.

Perhaps the hitters are feeling the pressure of a weak bullpen. Perhaps the starters feel pressure of having to be perfect since the offense is not scoring runs. Perhaps the bullpen is imploding because of the pressure of bad defense plays leading to stressful relief appearances.

The Cubs are backed into a corner. A cornered, battered dog should attack. But in the case of the Cubs, they may just go out with a whimper.

If we look back at the preseason expectations, the Cubs were destined to get to the World Series and probably repeat. The young core had just learned how to win championships.

But apparently, the continuing excuse has been the young core has not learned how to celebrate championships. The championship "hang over" lasted to the All-Star break (and some whisper it is still present). If the Cub players and staff thought the Cubs were so good that they could "turn it on" at any point in the season or a series, we know now that is not true. It has never been true. Preparation, research, training, repetition and baseball intelligence of a pro player is a daily exercise.

The teams remaining in the playoffs have one thing in common: a lights out bullpen. The Yankees have former closer Robertson coming in at any inning like a firefighter containing a potential out-of-control blaze. The Dodgers use Morrow in a way to take down the other team's best hitters. A bullpen that can take the ball in the 6th and shut out an opponent is the key to victory - - - it gives the offense 12 outs to mount a comeback or hold the lead.

The 2017 Cubs did rest on their 2016 laurels. Schwarber is no longer Mr. October. Arrieta is no longer Cy Young, Jr. Hendricks looks like Older Greg Maddux. Baez looks like a lost rookie at the plate. The general expectations for 2017 were diminished by the WS win. But it is how the Cubs are losing is disappointing to many fans.

Some people are comparing the Cubs to the Blackhawks. The current Hawks won their first Stanley Cup with a young core surrounded by veterans. But they could not repeat. The team had to re-tool for the second championship and then again for the third. They had to re-learn the hunger to get the title. Hopefully, this can be the Cubs projected cycle: re-tool to win another championship before the window closes (i.e., Bryant and/or Rizzo's free agency).

MADDENING SERIES

As the NLCS returns to Wrigley Field with the tenor of "must win" games, the focus is still on Joe Maddon strange managerial moves. From the time he mule whipped Wade Davis to pitch in three innings in the NLDS finals to putting in a cold John Lackey to hold NLCS Game 2 in the 9th, Maddon has been soundly criticized for his actions.

When the Cubs charter plane had to make an emergency landing because of a player's family member's medical issue, it could have been seen as a bad omen. The players had to sit on the plane for 5 hours because regulations required a crew change. It was a stressful cross country trek to get to LA for Game 1.

The debate for the Game 1 starter was between Quintana, who just pitched in relief, and Lackey who was on the roster as an observer in the NLDS. Considering the weakness and overwork of the bullpen, many people thought Lackey should start Game 1 for the following reasons: 1) he was fresh; 2) Dodgers stadium is a big ball park, a pitcher's park; 3) he has post-season experience; and 4) if he is on the roster, use him. You could get 7 innings out of him and Montgomery to save the bullpen for the series.

But Maddon chose Quintana to start. But it was reported just before the game started that the player's family member stricken on the charter flight was Quintana's wife. They stayed in New Mexico on Friday. And that she was still recovering in LA on Saturday. Why would you summon a player to the mound when there are still serious personal issues on his mind?

In order to set up the rotation on proper rest, Maddon should have had Lackey pitch Game 1 followed by Quintana, Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks.

Quintana pitched 5 innings, keeping the game close. It was the bullpen that let the Dodgers secure the lead. Hector Rondon replaced Justin Wilson on the roster (which was a good move considering Maddon did not trust Wilson in any key situation). Rondon gave up a home run - - - it was a good pitch that was taken deep.

To compound the rotation issue, Maddon called on Lester to pitch Game 2 on short rest. Lester struggled through 4 2/3 innings. Edwards and Strop came in to pitch well. But in the 9th inning, Maddon had Lackey come in to stop a Dodger rally. It was a disaster. Lackey clearly was not ready to come into the game as he wandered around the mound in a five minute time span to pitch to two batters. Normally, a starting pitcher takes at least a half hour to warm up. An older pitcher may take longer to get loose. In Game 2, Lackey was called in the 9th to relieve. It appeared he was not physically or mentally prepared to shut down the Dodgers. He gave up the walk off HR to Turner.

Maddon explained that he did not go to closer Davis in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game because he wanted to save him "for a save situation." He said Davis would only be able to throw an inning so he did not want to use him in a non-save situation. But Maddon's comments shows the flaws in his own logic. The only reason Davis could only throw an inning in Game 2 is that he had been burned out in Game 5 of the NLDS. Maddon was looking ahead for the Cubs to score in the 10th inning to set up a save opportunity. But the Cubs offense was dormant - - - there was no guarantee that the Cubs would  bat again. There is a general philosophy in baseball that a visiting team uses its closer in the 9th inning of a tied game because it is a sudden death situation. Maddon did the opposite.

Maddon continues to defy his seasonal decisions. He keeps on putting players in situations which they have never done before in their career, let alone in the regular season. A prime example of this was putting Lackey in Game 2. Lackey had never pitched in back to back games in his entire career. Lackey is not a relief pitcher, let alone taking on a closer's role.

Maddon cornered himself with his post-season pitching decisions because he only had Montgomery and Davis available in the pen for the end of Game 2. Montgomery has experience closing out playoff games (Game 7 of the 2016 WS) but he may have been physically drained to be put into a high pressure 9th. Maddon may have also thought he needed a "long" reliever in extra innings.

On the opposite dugout, Dodgers manager Roberts told reporters that he does not hesitate to take out a starter early in a game. He places his relievers to face certain batters. For example, he said he would make sure that Morrow would face Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras (the 2-3-4 hitters) and not use him for the bottom of the order. By assigning his relievers to where he wants them to pitch before the game starts allows Roberts not to second guess himself.

While the focal point of Maddon's decisions has been pitching, the Cubs hitters are in a terrible slump. They are not taking walks. They are fishing for breaking balls in the dirt. They are deer in the headlights of change ups. But Maddon kept putting in players who are struggling at the plate.  He has done two double switches which had Almora, his most consistent batter, taken out of the game. He has also forgotten about playing Happ at any position. And the post-season magic of Schwarber appears to be at its end.

It will take a Cubs home sweep to give the team a remote chance to make it to the World Series. Maddon's moves to date have not helped his team win games.

REBUILDS

The White Sox made another big trade, getting rid of three major league players for three prospects and a relief pitcher.

The White Sox are following the Cubs tear down style of rebuilding their organization.

The Sox may have the best farm system in the game with 9 Top 100 prospects.

But if you look at what these rebuilds represents a key level: failure.

Failure of a team's existing draft and developmental skills of players they targeted for the minor leagues.

Only 2 of the Sox Top 10 prospects were drafted by the team (SP Fulmer and C Collins). The rest of the top prospects have been acquired through trade or international free agency.

This style of burn down the major league roster to acquire a boat load of prospects is a risky venture because not all prospects pan out to be major league players. In addition, the team is going to have a rough time winning at the major league level. Sox attendance has been historically tied to the team winning games.

This plan also is couched as a long term solution to correct mediocrity but it is a short term hit or miss operation. If the prospects you acquired do not become All-Star caliber players (or even good major league players), your major league roster is devoid of trade assets to try and second rebuild operation.

The Dodger way has been to draft well, have exceptional development programs in the minors, to create the ability to promote every season  a rookie-of-the-year candidate. In the last few years, the Dodgers called up impact players Corey Seager, Joc Pedersen and Cody Bellinger. Add a home grown ace like Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have the luxury to trade veterans or pick up key free agents on an annual basis to meet specific needs.

The Cubs reaped the highest reward from its rebuild: a championship. But now a year removed, the Cubs have struggled to maintain the championship caliber. Last year's players are not hitting, fielding or pitching like they did last season.  Was 2016 an fluke? Is 2017 more the norm?

And the Cubs now find themselves with their prized prospects on the major league roster, and their farm system weak after trading away the remaining high prospects for needs such as a closer in Chapman last season and a starter in Quintana this year.  The Cubs have been caught in a trap of their own making; the team was built to win with the existing roster for the next few years. If they cannot perform up to the front office expectations, then this would be a huge set back for the organization.

LIFE OF LUXURY

The Associated Press reported a record six teams are paying baseball's luxury tax this season, led by the Los Angeles Dodgers at $31.8 million and the New York Yankees at $27.4 million, the 14th straight year New York has had to pay the tax.

Other taxed clubs include Boston ($4.5 million), Detroit ($4 million), San Francisco ($3.4 million) and the World Series champion Chicago Cubs ($2.96 million).

Los Angeles owes for the fourth consecutive year and like New York pays at a 50 percent rate on the amount above the $189 million threshold. The Dodgers paid a record $43 million for 2015, and their four-year total is $113 million.

Boston and San Francisco pay at a 30 percent rate as offenders for the second straight year, and Detroit and the Cubs - a first-time payer - are at 17.5 percent.

The purpose of  the luxury tax in an effort to slow spending by large-market clubs and combined with revenue sharing has helped increase the competitive of small-market teams and those in the middle.

The threshold increases to $195 million next year under the new labor contract, and tax rates go up, too. There will be additional surtaxes, raising the rate to as much as 95 percent for the amount above $235 million, with the increase to be phased in for 2017 at the midpoint between the old and new rules.

Los Angeles lowered its payroll from a record $291 million last year to just under $255 million, which topped the major leagues for the third straight year. For purposes of the tax, which uses average annual values and includes benefits, the Dodgers' payroll was nearly $253 million.

Luxury tax payrolls figure to increase slightly across the major leagues next year because of a provision in the labor contract calling for the inclusion of salaries of players sent outright to the minors starting this Dec. 1.

The Yankees' regular payroll was second at $224.5 million, up slightly from last year's $223.6 million, followed by Boston ($200.6 million), Detroit ($199 million), the Cubs ($182 million), San Francisco ($181 million) and the Los Angeles Angels ($173 million).

Milwaukee had the lowest payroll at $65.5 million, down from $98 million last year. Tampa Bay was at $67 million, down from $77 million.

The AP report said that spending on 40-man major league payrolls totaled nearly $4.1 billion, an increase of $200 million.

There is an old saying that a team cannot "buy" a championship. But last year, the majority of big spending teams did well.

The Cubs got 103 wins, Boston 93, Dodgers 91, Giants 87, Detroit 86 and the Yankees 84. That is 544 total team wins by the luxury tax group or a winning percentage of .560 (about 91 wins).

TIED SERIES

Having predicted before the NLCS the Cubs in 6, I am not worried about the 1-0 Sunday night loss to the Dodgers.

More bothersome is the growing trend of the Tinkerer, Joe Maddon.

He is managing differently than he did in the regular season. A regular season with 103 wins. A regular season that had the Cubs winning the Dodger head to head series.

Playing Heyward in right against Kershaw was just another headscratcher to fans. Heyward had been terrible against Kershaw. The Cubs need offense. The move would have been to play Soler or Almora in right, the latter giving the Cubs a good defensive option.

Defense was not a premium last night because both Kershaw and Hendricks pitched gems. Hendricks gave up less than his league leading ERA, on a quality pitch away that Adrian Gonzalez hit to the opposite field for a homer.

You still need to score one run to win a ball game. The Cubs did not do so. The Cubs failed to even try to manufacture a run, or put pressure on the Dodgers defense. Willson Contreras' first at bat was baffling - - - he did not take the bat off his shoulder for the first two pitches, and weakly walked back to the bench after the K.

The Cubs are still the better team. Chicago has better depth in pitching, hitting and defense.

But the pressure is getting to some players. Rizzo inferred that he is trying to hit 5 run HRs during his slump. His long foul ball out of the park yielded one walk during the evening. Fowler has not been setting up the line up and Bryant is looking at too many close pitches. The 3-4-5 hitters are collectively batting .100.

The Cubs cannot play down to their weaknesses and expect to win games against the Dodgers.

DODGER SPENDING

The Los Angeles Dodgers open the season with the largest MLB payroll:  $253 million. Only one other team has a payroll more than $200 million. 

From the data collected by Spotrac, the Dodgers are the Kings of Dead Money. The Dodgers do not have $253 million worth of talent taking the field on Opening Day. Of the Dodgers' $253 million in 2016 salaries, only $140 million (55%) is committed to players on the active, 25-man Opening Day roster. The other 45% of payroll, $113 million, is for players on the disabled list, key players in the minors, or former players now playing on other teams. The $113 million is more than the entire payroll for 14 teams, according news reports.

The biggest chunk is for players on the disabled list, inlcuding outfielder Andre Ethier ($18.0 million salary), pitcher Brett Anderson ($15.8 million), Brandon McCarthy ($12.5 million), and second baseman Howie Kendrick ($10.0 million). The Dodgers are also paying $23.7 million for players on other teams, including all $8.0 million of the 2016 salary for first baseman Michael Morse, who was traded to the Pirates last season with the Dodgers agreeing to pay most of his remaining salary.

The Dodgers are in the position to be spendthrifts because of its billion dollar TV rights deal with Time-Warner to create new Dodger Network. The Dodgers are still getting paid, but TW is getting burned since it has been unable to sell the channel to other cable and satellite TV providers. 

The blueprint follows the big money teams of the Yankees and Red Sox, who could afford to bury their mistakes by buying or trading for expensive talent. However, outspending your opponents does not necessarily mean that you can buy a championship. The KC Royals are a prime example of that principle.

SHUT OUTS

The season has not started by millions of baseball fans will be shut out.

NY Post reports the continuing saga of sports teams and cable operators over team license fees.

Cable operators are winning.

The head butt over broadcast rights fees continues at the start of the season by big carriage standoffs for regional sports networks in New York and Los Angeles.

The LA Times reports that Time Warner Cable sweetened its deal for SportsNet LA, the exclusive TV home of the Dodgers, but no deal has been come to pass.


The cable provider, which already cut the channel’s price by 30 percent for one year, offered pay-TV providers a new six-year deal to carry the regional sports net.

The first year would be at the lower $3.50-a-month introductory price with the rate ticking up in subsequent years, according to the LA Times, citing a source close to the talks.

So far, AT&T’s DirecTV and other pay-TV operators in Southern California have not responded to the latest offer, which means some 3 million homes in Southern California will miss out on Dodgers games for a third straight season.

The billion dollar Dodger cable network deal was based upon full coverage of the LA area. That has not happened, and it makes future megachannel deals unlikely for teams, including the Cubs.

The same situation is playing out in the New York area. YES, which airs Yankees games, has been blacked out on Comcast since November amid a carriage dispute with the network’s majority owner, 21st Century Fox.

The blackout affects about 900,000 Comcast subscribers who live in New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

Under its old contract, Comcast was guaranteed the lowest price because of a so-called “most favored nation” clause. It wants to continue that even though it lost its title as the biggest pay-TV provider to the combined AT&T- DirecTV.

HOLY COW!

This was a move that caught many off-guard: The White Sox fixing their third base problem by trading for Reds All-Star Todd Frazier.

In the three team deal, the White Sox send to the Dodgers three high level prospects: SP Frankie Montas, OF Trayce Thompson and IN Micah Johnson. The Dodgers send to the Reds a package of quality prospects: IN Jose Peraza, OF Scott Schebler and IN Brandon Dixon.

Montas is a flamethrower starting minor league pitcher and listed as the team's #3 prospect. Thompson was the White Sox's #14 prospect, but had a good debut last year to the point that he would compete for a starting OF position. Johnson was the Sox's #5 prospect. He is a solid infield defender with speed. But the acquisition of Brett Lawrie made Johnson expendable depth.

Frazier, 29, is under team control through 2017. He will be paid $7.5 million in 2016.

Frazier hit .255, 35 HR, 89 RBI, 13 SB with the Reds. He had a season 4.0 WAR. In his 4.25 seasons in the majors, his career WAR is 15.3.

This move immediately re-tools the Sox infield and line-up.

Frazier will anchor third, sophomore Tyler Saladino will compete for shortstop, Lawrie at second and Jose Abreu at first.

Along with two new proven catchers, the White Sox lineup looks more powerful:

1. Eaton CF
2. Cabrera LF
3. Abreu 1B
4. Frazier 3B
5. Lawrie 2B
6. Garcia RF
7. LaRoche DH
8. Navarro/Avila C
9. Saladino SS

NO HITTER

The national ESPN broadcast was very good last night. It was different with Jessica Mendoza as an analyst, but she was informative and fun with John Kruk. It was conversational throughout the night.

What was interesting about the broadcast was the back ground information on Jake Arrieta, now 17-6, 2.11 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Arrieta told the Cubs after the trade that he wanted to get back to throwing the way he did as a kid. It was a motion that the Orioles wanted to eliminate because it was a cross the chest delivery which many believe tends to create arm injuries in power pitchers. But the Cubs let Arrieta go back to what makes him comfortable. It has paid off, big time.

Also from last night's game was a primer on how to be a really effective pitcher. Arrieta's pitches all start in the middle of the strike zone, then dip and dive left and right. A batter sees his release point and immediately thinks strike, but as he begins to swing, his bat tells him it is not. But at that moment, it is too late. The prime example of this was Arrieta striking out the Dodgers in the 9th to complete his no hitter.

I also agree that Starlin Castro made an error. The sharply hit ball to him hit him then bounced away. I am a proponent of the rule that if the ball hits a fielder, he should be able to make a play. And if the home field scorer saw it as an error, it confirms my thesis.

In my lifetime, the Cubs have had 7 no hitters. I have seen on television  5 of the 7 no hitters. This is probably unique because WGN-TV carried all the Cubs games and baseball was a fixture of my viewing habits. Today, a nationally televised no hitter is a rarity.

This also cements the fact that Arrieta, with his consistent control and command (this was his 14th straight quality start, tying a club record by Greg Maddux), is clearly the ace of the staff.

UNCHARTERED TERRITORY

NEW YORK (AP) — Chase Utley's acquisition put the Los Angeles Dodgers close to becoming the first baseball team with a $300 million luxury-tax payroll.

The trade Wednesday that sent the six-time All-Star second baseman from Philadelphia to the NL West leaders raised the Dodgers' projected payroll for tax purposes to about $298.5 million, according to calculations by Major League Baseball. Performance bonuses for other players and end-of-season award bonuses could make the Dodgers the first team to reach the $300 million mark.

"That's fine. They haven't won the championship," Baltimore All-Star outfielder Adam Jones said. "You still have to play between the lines — same thing with the Yankees in the '90s and 2000s. It's baseball, man. Our union is tough enough to fight for our rights and we don't have a salary cap. Los Angeles is the second-biggest city in the United States. They can support it. I don't have to pay it!"

Luxury tax payrolls are based average annual values of contracts for the 40-man roster and include about $13 million per team in benefits, such as the health and pension plan, and payroll, unemployment and Social Security taxes paid by clubs.

Los Angeles is well above the $189 million tax threshold and will pay at a 40 percent rate for exceeding the mark for the third straight year. Its projected tax bill is about $44 million, which would top the record $34 million paid by the New York Yankees after the 2005 season.

The Dodgers' luxury tax payroll includes about $40 million for players no longer with the organization.

Los Angeles paid $11.4 million in tax in 2013 and $26.6 million last year, when its tax payroll was $277.7 million.

The Dodgers' regular payroll — salaries plus prorated shares of signing bonuses and earned bonuses — is at about $285 million, up from a record $257 million last year.

>>>> ANALYSIS:

The takeaway from the Dodgers ownership change and massive multi-billion dollar Dodger channel cable deal (which has been a disaster for TW, the cable partner) is that owners will spend just about anything in order to win. The Tigers were the same way for the past three seasons; overpaying for star players in order to win. But rarely does one "buy" a championship.

It also has a domino effect on clubs that cannot afford free-wheeling spending. The Kershaw $210 million deal is now the gold standard for ace pitchers. More than half of the clubs now cannot even bid on a Kershaw type starter. As the top tier players get more of budget payrolls, teams will have to axe the middle tier players (who earn on average $5 million/season) to go with more unproven prospects (at the major league minimum $550k). The Cubs are banking on that protocol: pay big money for arms, grow farm bats who don't take up much payroll.

But the bubble on cable TV deals is about to burst. Other teams think they will get Dodger money will soon find out that cable operators have hit the ceiling on what subscribers will pay for channel packages. And most subscribers don't want to pay $1.00 to $5.00 a month for a baseball only channel. In fact, more and more cable subscribers are "cutting the cord" to stream live events through the internet. 

When the big money well dries up, there will be a player backlash for several years. Many rookie deals are looking forward to the big payday that may not come. And generationally, if the big paydays are numbered, less youth will go into the sport as children. Instead, they will concentrate on other more potentially profitable athletic pursuits like basketball, football, or European soccer.

DODGING AN ISSUE

The Dodgers have been quite aggressive in signing Cuban ball players. The problem with scouting and evaluating Cuban players is that the U.S. trade embargo makes traditional due diligence difficult.

We don't know the full story on the latest issue with a Cuban prospect. It could be culture shock. It could be a personality problem (hot Latin temper stereotype; the macho thing). But it is almost a trend that multi-million dollar bonus babies are getting quickly into trouble.

The Associated Press reported that Dodgers prospect Erisbel Arruebarrena  was suspended for the remainder of the season for what the team said was ''repeated failures to comply with his contract.''

Club officials declined further comment.

Arruebarrena signed a $25 million, five-year contract in February 2014. He split the season among four minor league teams and the Dodgers and made his big league debut on last May 23. He hit .195 in 22 games for Los Angeles.

The Dodgers designated him for assignment on Dec. 31, and when he cleared waivers he was sent outright to the team's Triple-A affiliate.

The 25-year-old Cuban remained at extended spring training and did not play in any minor league games this year, when his deal calls for a $3 million salary. The club does not have to pay him while suspended list.

The team had previously indicated that it was not related to a testing program violation. It is unknown what other contract provision was breached to get a full year suspension. However, Arruebarrena was at the center of a major brawl in Triple-A last year, at one point taking off his helmet and throwing it at former major leaguer Mike Jacobs. If the player or his agent appeals, it would be heard by baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred.

Other teams may not feel too bad for the Dodgers wasting signing bonus money on a suspended prospect. But there is a lesson for all general managers who are looking to the Caribbean and Cuba for the next great prospects. The mental make-up of players is just as important as the perceived skill levels.  In fact, the former could be the most important issue in a player's development.

A WEBB OF INTRIGUE

MLBTR notes the oddity of the Orioles trading a player to a team for whom he immediately gets released.

The Dodgers announced that they have released recently acquired right-hander Ryan Webb. The Dodgers received a draft pick, a minor leaguer and Webb but it appears that LA was only interested in the draft pick while the Orioles were only interested in dumping Webb's salary of $2.75 million.

The Orioles sent the Webb, a Minor League catcher  and a Competitive Balance (Round B) draft pick to Los Angeles in exchange for right-hander ground ball pitcher Ben Rowen and the Dodgers No. 26 prospect, Minor League catcher Chris O'Brien. 

The 29-year-old Webb will now be free to sign anywhere he chooses, and as a player with five-plus years of service time, he is entitled to reject his outright assignment and force the club to trade or release him (with pay). As such, interested parties will only be on the hook for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum on a big league deal, with the Dodgers owing the remainder of his salary. That’s not necessarily a bad outcome for Webb, who is still guaranteed his money and is now free to choose a club that presents him the clearest path to a role to his liking.

As Charlie noted in last night’s analysis, that Webb’s $2.75MM salary is apparently viewed as exorbitant is a bit puzzling in its own right. While he’s not a shutdown reliever, Webb’s never posted an ERA+ lower than 99 and has been better than that in recent years. He’s served as a reasonably effective reliever with the Padres, Marlins and Orioles to this point, working to a 3.38 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 56.1 percent ground-ball rate in his career. While it’s true that he doesn’t fit the mold of the hard-throwing power relievers that are proliferating today’s game — his 92 mph fastball is notably tamer than the 95 he averaged in his first two seasons — Webb has still shown the ability to retire big league hitters.

As I noted at the time of the trade, the Dodgers will add not only the No. 74 pick in the draft, but also the money that comes along with it. That pick comes with a slot value of $827K, which will be subtracted from Baltimore’s draft pool and added to that of the Dodgers. The Orioles’ draft money pool will drop from $7,677,400 to $6,850,400, while the Dodgers’ pool will rise from $6,954,700 to $7,781,700. And it should, of course, be noted that the Dodgers do come away with Minor Leaguer Brian Ward, a catcher. While he’s not an elite prospect, Ward ranked as the Orioles’ best defensive Minor League catcher (per Baseball America) prior to the 2013 season, so the Dodgers will at the very least add some depth and a strong defender to their ranks, even if Ward has never hit much.

As some general managers will call this deal, "gaming the system," as it allows one team to change their slotted draft money in order to draft first round talent that slip to second round due to signability (i.e. money bonus demand issues).

TAKING A TUMBLE

The Los Angeles Times reported late last week that the Dodgers local TV ratings have tumbled.

Badly.

The new TW-Dodger Channel is still not available in 70% of the LA market due to carrier fee disputes.

The Dodgers new owners signed a multi-billion dollar cable channel deal with TW which now seems to be a money pit disaster.

The Dodgers kicked off the 2015 season with two stadium sellouts and falling TV ratings.

Monday afternoon's opening day telecast on the team-owned cable channel, SportsNet LA, generated a .79 household rating and an estimated 58,146 viewers. That's slightly more than turned out at Dodger Stadium for the sold-out game that culminated with a win over the San Diego Padres.

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, which were on the road Monday against the Seattle Mariners, generated a 1.35 household TV rating in Southern California and 88,415 viewers. The Fox Sports West cable channel carries the Angels' games.

The Dodgers and Angels both grew their TV audiences on rain-soaked Tuesday night -- the teams' first prime-time telecasts of the season. The Dodgers captured a 1.04 household rating and 81,670 viewers. The Angels notched a 1.65 household rating and 132,500 viewers.

Fox Sports West is carried by all of the major pay-TV distributors -- making it available in nearly 4.5 million homes in the region.

But because of a bitter fee dispute, Time Warner Cable, which distributes SportsNet LA, is the only major pay-TV provider that offers that channel in Southern California. Other providers have balked at the price that Time Warner Cable has been demanding to carry the channel, leaving more than 70% of the region without regular TV access to Dodger games.

The Dodgers' TV audience took a tumble on Wednesday. The game mustered a .58 household rating and just 35,000 viewers -- far fewer than showed up at Dodger Stadium for the sold-out game.

This is the new reality: that viewers will not pay "extra" for a team channel. Too many cable operators have been burned by these new deals, including Houston. If the Cubs are banking on a huge Cubs channel windfall in 2020, they are probably delusional since the entertainment distribution landscape is shifting dramatically.

THE BUBBLE BURST?

Ricketts and the Cubs are counting on a huge network-cable channel bonanza in 2020.

However, the landscape of television and consumer entertainment options is changing fast.

If the Cubs were counting on a Dodger-TW megadeal, think again.

Time Warner Cable is expected to lose $1 billion in its deadl involving the Dodgers television rights, according to the New York Post. 

The company acquired the right to air Dodgers' games on SportsNet LA in 2013. The reported contract was worth $8.35 billion over 25 years. Time Warner Cable believed providers such as DirecTV or Dish Network would pay to carry the channel, but that hasn't been the case thus far. 

 

Time Warner Cable hasn't lowered its demands, which means roughly 70 percent of Southern California households will be unable to watch games for the second year of the deal. The company is reported asking for about $5 per subscriber in order for providers to carry the channel.

That would make SportNet LA the third most-expensive sports channel in the United States, according to a survey conducted by SNL Kagan, a consulting firm. And, according to the Post at least, Time Warner would rather take a $1 billion hit than bring down its price:

Sources told The Post that the market rate for the channel is more likely $3 per subscriber per month, meaning the charge will be almost $1 billion when adjusted over the life of the contract or in the region of $700 million in present-day terms.

“Comcast will be made whole,” said the source, suggesting this mess had to be cleaned up as a condition of Comcast’s proposed deal to acquire Time Warner Cable.

“Unless the deal closes, there will not be another [Dodgers] season shown outside of Time Warner Cable. I don’t believe they’ll get carriage,” a source told The Post.

Time Warner Cable has reportedly attempted to rectify the situation in recent weeks, but there has been no progress, according to the Los Angeles Times. The company has also denied that it is facing such a massive loss. 

"Time Warner Cable has no plans to take a write-down in connection with its Dodgers contract," the company said late Tuesday in a statement.  "In fact, TWC does not carry an asset on its balance sheet related to the Dodgers and, therefore, there is no asset for it to write down now or in the future."

If Time Warner Cable were to "take a write-down" that would mean the company would have to admit that the rights to air Dodgers games is a declining asset. This would have a huge impact on their financial situation if the reported figures are true.

Another point to be made is that the Dodgers cable deal has caused the values of all baseball franchises to skyrocket. So much so that the Cubs have sold minority interests in the holding company - - - which is selling slices at peak prices (and before this latest news). One could argue that all baseball franchises are now substantially overvalued as no cable operator-TV partner in the future is going to make a similar Dodger-TW mistake.

A CRACK IN THE DAM

This is a very curious development in Forbes magazine.

Forbes reports that there is a potential deal in which a South Korean sovereign fund would invest in the Los Angeles Dodgers. The twenty percent investment values the Dodger assets at $3 billion  according to two sources with knowledge of the negotiation said Forbes.

Three years ago Guggenheim Baseball Management bought the Dodgers from the divorcing McCourts. That deal placed a value of $2 billion on the team and Dodger Stadium, and a value of $2.3 billion including 260 acres of surrounding real estate. The current negotiations with the South Korean investors is for about 20% of the team and stadium but does not include the nearby real estate or the regional sports channel created by by the Dodgers and Time Warner.  The deal the Dodgers have with the Dodger network pays the team a total of $8.35 billion over 25 years with the money guaranteed by Time Warner Cable.

The Cubs have also sold a minority stake in the holding company for the Cubs assets, including Wrigley Field and real estate developments.  It was reported the Cubs needed to raise $350 million to complete the real estate projects, including the rehab of Wrigley Field.

But this does show a weakness in the baseball business model. A successful, large positive cash flow business that baseball is touted as does not suddenly have two of its big market teams selling off large chunks of ownership (abet minority stakes) if everything is going great.  There would be no need to find investors.

But in the Dodgers case, their network roll out was a disaster. TW tried to extract too high carriage fees with other California cable and sat-tv systems so 75 percent of the Dodger viewers were without broadcasts last season. Suddenly, the new network cash cow looks like a diseased beast of burden.

Other teams, like the Angels, have huge dead money contracts on their books which have choked this off season's roster rebuilding.  The Mets are still on financial thin ice after the Madoff scandal. Mets owners have tried to sell a minority stake for several years but don't want to give up control.

Former commissioner Bud Selig used to crow about how great and profitable baseball was under his tenure. But that tide may be turning faster than we think.

TO POINT C

When Andrew Friedman left the Rays for the Dodgers, Tampa was mildly shocked. But with today's news that manager Joe Maddon has exercised an opt-out clause in his contract, he won't manage the Rays in 2015. That is a death knell to the Rays.

Maddon has a stellar reputation as a major league manager. He has great feel of mentoring young players. As a franchise with a limited payroll, the Rays have been highly competitive in the AL East.

But the Rays are going head first into a transition period after the David Price trade. Times will be difficult, and the departure of two major foundational men is going to accelerate the decline.

But this puts Maddon on the market for a new job. Every other team is going to look hard at their current manager to weigh a potential upgrade.

Does anyone think that Rick Renteria has the skill set to lead the Cubs to a championship?

Does anyone think that Robin Ventura has the skill set to lead the White Sox to a championship?

By most measures, insiders would consider Maddon an upgrade over the two Chicago skippers.

But since Friedman has left for LA, Don Mattingly, who was already on the hot seat for some of his moves (especially in the playoffs), may be on the way out to make room for Maddon.

And since the Dodgers are apparently paying "double" for talent, Maddon will be drawn to the Dodgers by finances alone.

RICH GET RICHER

The rich get richer, especially in baseball.

The Dodgers may not have won the World Series this year, but they won the executive wars.

ESPN reported that the Dodgers have hired former Rays general manager Andrew Friedman as their new president of baseball operations.

Ned Colletti, who has been the Dodgers' general manager since 2005, will remain with the club in a new role as senior advisor to the president and CEO of the Dodgers, Stan Kasten.

Sources said that Friedman, in his role as president of baseball operations, will have the ability to hire a general manager.

Landing the 37-year-old Friedman is a coup for the Dodgers. A handful of teams have tried unsuccessfully to poach the talented young executive with a Wall Street background, who piloted the small-market, budget-conscious Rays to six consecutive winning seasons and four playoff appearances after taking over in 2008.

"Andrew Friedman is one of the youngest and brightest minds in the game today and we are very fortunate to have him join our organization," Kasten said in a statement. "The success he has had over the past nine years in molding the Tampa Bay Rays team has been incredible."

 Friedman had been one of the names in management circles when Theo Epstein was hired by the Cubs. Friedman has actual experience in building a farm system for a competitive small market team. Epstein was from the big market, free spending Red Sox.

WORST CALL EVER

As Yahoo Sports reported recently, umpires are humans. They make mistakes. But in a recent Dodger-Twins game, the worst call in the history of the sport may have occurred against the Dodgers.

Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers, hit a high chopper up the middle of the diamond. He clearly beat the throw to first base. The throw skipped past the first baseman, but the Twins catcher backed up the play. The film clearly shows that Puig stayed on the right side of the foul line all the way through his run past first base. His body never crossed the foul line toward second.  However umpire Tim Welke called Puig out after he made a phantom "lean" toward second base after an infield single

Welke mistook Puig sharply turning his head to the right to check for the ball's location as an attempt of the runner to advance to second base.  It was evident from Puig's body language that Puig wanted to take an extra base, but when saw Pinto with the ball, he applied the brakes. If Puig's left shoulder began to dip toward second, the rest of his body actually leaned right. He never left the baseline, never crossed the foul line. He stopped, turned around clockwise (that's away from second base), and started walking back to the bag like an innocent man who just had hit an infield single.

Now, some believe that umpires are more sensitive to their calls because of instant replay. But here is a situation where the call was blatantly wrong, but nothing was done about it. The play was not reviewed, and the Dodgers first base coach did not put up an argument. Puig just stood there in shock until his coach told him to head to the dugout.

One could argue that if MLB is going to rely on replay technology to make its game better, there should be an instant "alert" to the crew chief from the league office or official scorer to correct a blatant missed call. Then have the crew chief review the play and make the correct call. Of course, replay itself is not perfect. At least twice this season, calls were reviewed during games and afterward, the umpires got the play wrong.