A favorite stat for people to debate the value of baseball players is WAR. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. A player's WAR number is supposed to represent the number of team wins the player has added to the team total above that of a AAA-AAAA replacement player. The calculation includes factors for defensive support and value for high leverage or more difficult positions and situations.
The components in the WAR calculation track how much above "average" a player was during a season. But the WAR number itself is Wins Above Replacement. It has been said that the difference between an average player and a replacement level player is about 20 runs during a full season. The runs-to-wins is put through a conversion formula (typically, 10 runs equals 1 win).
This is fine to attempt the judge the value of individual players in an average talent pool. But baseball is still a team sport relying upon individuals to get wins.
Which led me to check on the 2012 season from a team perspective.
The San Francisco Giants won the World Series. The regular season record was 94-68. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
28.9 hitter WAR + 5.5 pitcher WAR = 34.4 team WAR.
Then the question, what is an "average" baseball team? In a 162 game season, it is simple. A team that goes .500 (81-81) is average. Two teams ended 2012 at .500: Arizona and Philadelphia.
The Diamondbacks season record was 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
17.7 hitter WAR + 13.3 pitcher WAR = 31.0 team WAR.
The Phils also finished the season 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
15.0 hitter WAR + 10.8 pitcher WAR = 25.8 team WAR.
If we compare the World Series champion Giants to the Diamondbacks and Phils team WARS, the Giants team was +3.4 WAR better than Arizona and +8.6 WAR better than Philadelphia.
Since we have "two" average teams, if we average the team WARs (56.8/2) the average team WAR is 28.4. If you compare the average team WAR of 28.4 to the Giants team 34.4, one can calculate that the Giants as a team were 21 percent better than an average major league team in 2012.
If you compare that to victories, the Giants were +13, or 16 percent above an average .500 team.
Now for the other end of the standings.
The Chicago Cubs had a bad rebuilding season. The team 2012 record was 61-101. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers for the Cubs you will find:
11.8 hitter WAR + (0.1) pitcher WAR = 11.7 team WAR.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the Giants team WAR of 34.4, the Cubs are -22.7 WAR. That means the Cubs were 66 percent worse than the Giants.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the average .500 club WAR of 28.4 WAR, the Cubs are -16.7. That means the Cubs were 58.8 percent worse than an average team in 2012.
So how far are the Cubs away from being a competitive ball club?
The WAR scale for players indicates that one who is 8.0 WAR plus is an MVP type player; 5.0 WAR plus is an All-Star caliber player; 2.0 WAR plus is a starter; 0-2 WAR is a bench player; and below 0 is replacement level.
The highest WAR player on the roster is Darwin Barney at 4.6, then Starlin Castro at 3.5, then Ryan Dempster at 3.3 (who is no longer on the team) and then Anthony Rizzo at 2.2. Barney's WAR has to be skewed by his defense error less streak. Even so, based on the WAR player scale, the Cubs only have three starters on their 25 man roster, and not one is of All-Star caliber.
In order for the Cubs to competitive, the team needs double digit WAR numbers for hitting and pitching. The team needs to add 11 players of 2.0 WAR and above (6 fielders and 5 starters) just to become an average team in 2013.
Showing posts with label Phils. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phils. Show all posts
November 16, 2012
June 19, 2012
TRADE MARKET
A quick view of the standings will show who will most likely be Sellers at the trade deadline.
The Blue Jays have been traders, but roster builders. The Red Sox are traders as contenders, but are pretenders this season. The Royals, Brewers and Diamondbacks are on the fence. The Phillies may be surprise sellers because of their lost season. The Twins are sellers in rebuild mode around a core of aging and injured veterans. The A's are perennial sellers looking more at the new stadium than roster moves. The Mariners are catch and release sellers (with teams like the Cubs making waiver claims off their roster). The Astros could be reluctant sellers because they have little to trade. The Rockies are probable sellers. The Padres as team is literally still for sale. And the Cubs are in full fire sale, garage sale mode.
The teams that are most likely sellers are Twins, A's, Mariners, Phils, Astros, Rockies and Cubs. Each team's likely trade bait (current salaries included in millions):
The Twins could have a pitching swap meet. Starters Pavano (9), Baker (6.5), Liriano (5.5), reliever Capps (4.5) and possibly utility-catcher Doumit (3.5).
The A's could unload relievers Balfour (4) and Fuentes (5) but more likely Inge (5.5) or Suzuki (5).
The Mariners could possibly salary dump Figgins (9.5), Guiterrez (5.8), League (5) and Vargas (4.8).
The Rockies have already shopped starter Guthrie (8.2) and have no long term need for Giambi (1).
The Astros also could dump salary in Carlos Lee (19), reliever Myers (12) or starter Wandy Rodriguez (10.5), a consistent lefty on a bad team.
The Phils could either hold pat for next season or play mega-dealer. Hamels (15) is heading for free agency so he is a rent-a-player candidate. Veterans Polanco (6) and Wiggington (4) could command interest for a team rounding up a strong bench.
As set forth earlier in this blog, the Cubs block includes Dempster, Garza, LaHair, Soriano and Barney. So the Cubs are probably in the middle of the pack as buyers evaluate the available talent pool.
If you look at all the trade candidates above, it is not really a strong talent market. Either the players are expensive or on the downside of their careers. But that is partially negated by the moment; some teams need to win now and will overlook those concerns.
The Blue Jays have been traders, but roster builders. The Red Sox are traders as contenders, but are pretenders this season. The Royals, Brewers and Diamondbacks are on the fence. The Phillies may be surprise sellers because of their lost season. The Twins are sellers in rebuild mode around a core of aging and injured veterans. The A's are perennial sellers looking more at the new stadium than roster moves. The Mariners are catch and release sellers (with teams like the Cubs making waiver claims off their roster). The Astros could be reluctant sellers because they have little to trade. The Rockies are probable sellers. The Padres as team is literally still for sale. And the Cubs are in full fire sale, garage sale mode.
The teams that are most likely sellers are Twins, A's, Mariners, Phils, Astros, Rockies and Cubs. Each team's likely trade bait (current salaries included in millions):
The Twins could have a pitching swap meet. Starters Pavano (9), Baker (6.5), Liriano (5.5), reliever Capps (4.5) and possibly utility-catcher Doumit (3.5).
The A's could unload relievers Balfour (4) and Fuentes (5) but more likely Inge (5.5) or Suzuki (5).
The Mariners could possibly salary dump Figgins (9.5), Guiterrez (5.8), League (5) and Vargas (4.8).
The Rockies have already shopped starter Guthrie (8.2) and have no long term need for Giambi (1).
The Astros also could dump salary in Carlos Lee (19), reliever Myers (12) or starter Wandy Rodriguez (10.5), a consistent lefty on a bad team.
The Phils could either hold pat for next season or play mega-dealer. Hamels (15) is heading for free agency so he is a rent-a-player candidate. Veterans Polanco (6) and Wiggington (4) could command interest for a team rounding up a strong bench.
As set forth earlier in this blog, the Cubs block includes Dempster, Garza, LaHair, Soriano and Barney. So the Cubs are probably in the middle of the pack as buyers evaluate the available talent pool.
If you look at all the trade candidates above, it is not really a strong talent market. Either the players are expensive or on the downside of their careers. But that is partially negated by the moment; some teams need to win now and will overlook those concerns.
May 5, 2012
WHOSE ON THIRD?
There is a sudden demand for major league third basemen. ESPN's Jason Stark reports that the Rays and the Giants are looking for third basemen to replace injured stars Evan Longoria and Pablo Sandoval. Stark states that he believes the Rays are looking for more of a utility player they can use after Longoria returns. Also, the Phillies are in the market to replace Placido Polanco, who is at the end of his career.
A few names in the discount trade bin are Baltimore's Mark Reynolds, a power hitting strike out machine, and Minnesota's Danny Valencia.
This early in the season, teams with major injuries are not necessarily looking to permanently replace their fallen stars, but pick up salvageable journeymen who can plug the gap until the return of the regular.
Again, this type of news should have the Cubs GM Hoyer on the horn to make deals for prospects or other major leaguers to fill the holes in the current North Side roster.
Example, who would have thought that ex-Cardinal Joe Mather would have more HRs than ex-Cardinal Albert Pujols? Mather's stock is peaking right now. He can play LF, RF, 3B and 1B. But on most teams, including the Cubs, he is the 4th outfielder. Mather would be a good bargaining chip in a trade right now, especially to the Rays who are looking for a multi-positional player in return.
Blake DeWitt also fills that utility role. He can play third, second and outfield. And he is a left handed bat.
Jeff Baker is the same type player, only he bats from the right side. Ian Stewart has been a disappointment at third for the Cubs. He lacks the power and average that was promised when the Cubs got him from the Rockies. Stewart is not the Cubs long term answer at third. The Cubs have a roster loaded with utility journeymen candidates. Since the Cubs are going no where but hovering around the cellar this season, there is no reason to hang on to these players who are not important foundational pieces in the rebuilding for 2014.
A few names in the discount trade bin are Baltimore's Mark Reynolds, a power hitting strike out machine, and Minnesota's Danny Valencia.
This early in the season, teams with major injuries are not necessarily looking to permanently replace their fallen stars, but pick up salvageable journeymen who can plug the gap until the return of the regular.
Again, this type of news should have the Cubs GM Hoyer on the horn to make deals for prospects or other major leaguers to fill the holes in the current North Side roster.
Example, who would have thought that ex-Cardinal Joe Mather would have more HRs than ex-Cardinal Albert Pujols? Mather's stock is peaking right now. He can play LF, RF, 3B and 1B. But on most teams, including the Cubs, he is the 4th outfielder. Mather would be a good bargaining chip in a trade right now, especially to the Rays who are looking for a multi-positional player in return.
Blake DeWitt also fills that utility role. He can play third, second and outfield. And he is a left handed bat.
Jeff Baker is the same type player, only he bats from the right side. Ian Stewart has been a disappointment at third for the Cubs. He lacks the power and average that was promised when the Cubs got him from the Rockies. Stewart is not the Cubs long term answer at third. The Cubs have a roster loaded with utility journeymen candidates. Since the Cubs are going no where but hovering around the cellar this season, there is no reason to hang on to these players who are not important foundational pieces in the rebuilding for 2014.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)