BACK UP THE MOVING VAN

 The Cubs 11 game losing streak has changed the team's view of the playoffs and off-season programs.

The remaining core and recent additions are pending free agents: Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Pedersen. Kimbrel and Contreras have one more year of potential control. 

With the CBA expiring at the end of the season, there is great uncertainty on what will happen to the free agent market and whether the FA compensation rules will change. Currenty, only those who turn down the one-year qualifying offer from their clubs will have compensation attached to them. Those offers must be made by the club within the first five full days after the World Series ends, and players then have 10 days to accept or decline the offer, during which time they can negotiate with other teams

Under the current rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2019 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.

The following 16 teams currently qualify for these picks: A's, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.

If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. The 12 clubs that fall into this category are the Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees.

The Cubs have several options with their pending free agents:

1. Keep them through the season. Let the core group have a final swan song together. Then let me go on their merry way.

2. Keep them through the season. Then offer them a qualifying offer (last year was $17.6 million) or even arbitration. If the player rejects the QO, then potential draft compensation may attach. If rejects arbitration, then no draft comp.

3. Try to negotiate an extension with the players. We have only heard crickets this season on any extension talk. With Ricketts claiming poverty and Hoyer trading his best starter in a clear salary dump, ownership has not signaled any willingness to commit large dollars to their old players.

4. Think about trades. If you think your scouting department can pick gems in compensatory rounds (picks from 48 to 100), then waiting to draft someone could be more valuable than trading a rental player for a low minor league prospect. Trading partners this year are highly unlikely to part with any of their Top 15-20 prospects for a two month rental player. Only if two or more teams fight over player will the value rise. 

5. Have a fire sale. Try to squeeze as much value as you can from your current roster. Everybody has a chance to get on the moving van. Trade deadline contenders usually want closers, starters and specialty hitters/defenders to fill in bench role. Kimbrel probably has the most trade value because he has had a solid year. Contreras is probably the second most valuable trade chip. He has one more year of control and is a top NL catcher. A team like the White Sox could use him now. Hendricks has already signed a team friendly extension so I doubt he will be moved but he has as much value as Contreras. Bryant is purely a rental who will hit the FA market. His up and down little injuries year does not help. Unless a contender loses a middle of the line up bat, market interest may be thin for KB. Baez has less market value than Bryant. He is too inconsistent at the plate and lately in the field (14 errors). He has the personality and PR appeal that could help some clubs sell tickets but not at a great trade cost. Pedersen fits into the Schwarber mode (DH more than OF) which limits thinking to AL teams. 

6. Let them test the free agent market, then negotiate a new deal in the wild. It is possible to try to reel back in one of your players. The Cubs did it with pitcher Hamel. But it is rare. And the Cubs would have to dramatically change its small market mind set. Also, free agents want a chance to win now and it is clear the Cubs do not have the organizational depth to field a championship caliber contender in the next few years.

If the Cubs stumble into the All Star break, the fire sale is the most likely option. But look at the Darvish trade as the bitter cough medicine fans will have to swallow. The Cubs received nothing of value in return and only one marginal major leaguer (Davies). At the trade deadline, I would expect only Class A ball players in return for any one except maybe Kimbrel or Contreras. But even then, most teams would rather see how the new CBA financial terms will be set before parting with any of their controllable (i.e. cheap) minor league players. Teams have learned their is more value in developing and promoting their draft choices to keep them for 7 years than trading away good prospects for an illusory chance at the pennant or World Series.

If I were to guess on who will be traded I think Kimbrel, Baez and Bryant are the candidates. I think the team will keep Rizzo to the end of the year because he is still the face of their franchise and the Cub house leader. I think the strong push to eliminate the 2016 team is apparent as the championship has been an actual anchor drag on the team as the players generally did not improve and scouting and operations departments failed to draft and develop their replacements.

MASH UNIT

Did Theo's parents want to become a doctor? A hospital administrator?
Because he keeps running an expensive and dumb MASH unit.

But his latest signing makes absolutely no sense at all:

Former A's pitcher Kendall Graveman is not likely to pitch in 2019. He underwent Tommy John surgery this last July and was non-tendered by  Oakland in November. The Chicago Cubs just signed the injured free agent $575,000 anyway. The Cubs have a history of signing unsigned, injured players to pay for their year of rehab. But why? The player would have to do that on his own. I am not aware of any other major league team signing injured players NOT to play them.

This deal is being sold as a long-term return for Chicago. Not necessarily in 2019, but in 2020. While Graveman’s contract will pay him just more than half a million dollars to rehab, it’s the player option for $3 million going into next year’s off-season is the alleged selling point for both sides.



The deal gives the 28-year-old RHP a little more than a full year to get himself healthy and prove that he can pitch the way he did from 2015-17 when he posted a 4.11 ERA over 407 innings with 255 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.359. But those numbers are not stellar for a starting pitcher.


If for some reason Graveman can make it back in 2019, the Cubs will give him a payday of about $2 million, according to Fancred’s Jon Heyman.

But here is the problem: TJ surgery rehab averages 19 months. At best, he comes back mid-September to throw in a couple of games to get $2 million?????  Even if he does not pitch but is fully recovered, why did the Cubs not keep a TEAM OPTION to sign him for 2020?  Graveman can take the Cubs money, get healthy and walk away into the free agent market to make more money as a STARTING pitcher. Do the Cubs think they are "buying" his loyalty for a half million dollars? Think again. If Graveman does not return to form, which is possible, then he gets to stick the Cubs with the option of $3 million more to continue to rehab or sit out another season.

It is stupid to pay a free agent money to rehab when you can spend the major league minimum for a player who will actually be on the major league roster in 2019 (i.e. a player like Bote).

The Cubs have done some strange things this off-season, but this move is absolutely the dumbest thing the front office has done. The team stated it is short of financial capital to make moves this off-season, but this signing is literally throwing money at a player who cannot contribute anything of meaningful value in 2019.

A TRADE TO MAKE

The Cubs still have at least one trade to make this off-season.

AAA 3B Christian Villaneuva (picked up in the Dempster deal to the Rangers) is out of options.
He projects to be about a .260 hitter, moderate power, good defense at third. But he only plays third
so he does not fit into Maddon's "flexibility" roster.

The Cubs need to trade/package Villanueva to a team that needs a third baseman
(there are a lot of teams with that need, including the Reds and Indians) but who can
afford to give up a quality starting center fielder (which is in short supply).

If you find a taker, you would need to package a higher ML salary (Hammel or Montero or Soler)
to get payroll relief since the Cubs are already over the projected 2016 budget.

Villaneuva will not the be center piece of any trade, but he would be the added asset to get a deal done. He is a major league ready player who would be making the major league minimum.

HANDS TIED

As I predicted, the Cubs are not going to be big free agent spenders this off-season.

The Sun-Times reported the "Cubs are still waiting for business president Crane Kenney’s promised wheelbarrow of cash to find its way to baseball president Theo Epstein’s office."

Theo Epstein said he did not expect the kind of spending on free agent pitching national baseball pundits seem to assume the Cubs have planned this winter – no matter how much more the Cubs plan to draw at Wrigley Field next year or make on ballpark/video board sponsorships.

As much as David Price might want to reunite with his old manager, Joe Maddon, in Chicago, his Price tag could put him out of the Cubs’ reach. The article stresses that the Cubs effective payroll was $120 million in 2015, of which $20 million was carry-over from prior years. The whole emphasis on drafting and signing international players for cheap control was the blueprint sold to the fans four years ago. Ownership is not going to open the checkbook when Ricketts is in the costly beginning of massive construction projects to Wrigley Field and surrounding properties.

The article believes that the Cubs 2016 payroll could be at best $130 million, about $10 million more than last season. Considering the amount of empty roster slots in CF, starting pitching, half the bullpen and arbitration players like Arrieta, the unspent $30 million for 2016 would have to be parsed between ten to twelve players.

What the meetings probably don’t signify is any inclination by the Cubs’ brass to attempt to add two high-end free agents.  Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer have recently downplayed that possibility. “If we want to do two things we have to get pretty creative,” Epstein said, referring to managing payroll. “Even if we do one really big thing we have to get creative. We have the ability to add a little bit from where we are right now. I don’t think we have room to do everything that’s been speculated in some areas.”

So Epstein has publicly admitted what we assumed for a year or more. He does not control the Cubs checkbook. As such, he cannot create a complete vision of his Cubs team. As a result, it has to be frustrating to deal with the business side of the organization. And this may be the reason there is no talk for an Epstein contract extension because he may believe this is an unworkable situation.

With his hands tied by the business side, the baseball guys have to be "creative" if they want to sign a big money free agent. That means two things: 1) add more years and greater amount of "dead money" to the end of a deal or 2) create more payroll space by trading away higher priced players. It seems the only true alternative is the trade route.

To open up payroll space, the most likely candidates would be:

Montero, who is owed $28 million for the next two years;
Castro, who is owed $40.43 million over next four years (with $1 million buyout of option);
Soler, who is owed 21.35 million over next five years, but has an opt out after three.

Montero is owed $14 million for 2016; Castro, $7.86 million; and Soler, $3.76 million. 

The Cubs would have to move Montero and Castro to free up enough cash to sign a top tier starter.
the Cubs would have to move Castro and Soler to free up enough cash to sign a second tier starter.

If Schwarber can catch, then Montero is expendable. If the Cubs move Castro, Baez can play second. If the Cubs move Soler, RF becomes another outfield hole to fill in free agency. This also ties the Cubs off-season moves because the current roster does not have the quality depth to take a starter's place for an entire season.

40 MAN MOVES

The Cubs 40 man roster has numerous players who are out of options, according to MLBTR.

Players on a  40-man roster players  who have less than five years service time and are out of minor league options must clear waivers before being sent to the minors. In theory,  a team risks losing a player if he cannot make the 25 man roster.  

The Cubs have 11 players who are out of options.

George Kottaras, Wesley Wright, Justin Ruggiano, James McDonald, Pedro Strop, Wellington Castillo, Jeff Samardzija, Luis Valbuena, Travis Wood, Donnie Murphy and Alberto Cabrera.

There are a few who are guaranteed 25 man roster spots: Samardzija, Wood, Valbuena, Castillo, with newcomers Kottaras, Wright, Ruggiano.

Strop would appear to win the set-up bullpen role, and Cabrera could be battling for the final bullpen spot with McDonald if Arrieta is the 5th starter as camp breaks.

It puts Murphy in the weakest spot. Even though he showed some power in his short tenure with the Cubs, he has never found consistency in the majors. Emilio Bonifacio, who signed a minor league deal, is more likely to make the 25 man roster because of his position versatility and ability to lead off.

It is not to say that the Cubs should be not looking at the waiver wire to upgrade any of their positions.