After hitting a pinch hit HR, all attention seems to be on reserve outfielder Joe Mather. Mather, 30, is a former Brave and Cardinal farm hand with limited major league experience. He does not fit the Theo benchmark of being under 28. But it is reported that he can play LF, RF, 3B and 1B. Jim Hendry also fancied players stuffed at multiple positions (usually second basemen playing out of position).
Mather's emergence puts the heat on Tony Campana and Dave Sappelt for the last OF spot. Both Campana and Sappelt have not been tearing up spring. It is reported that all three have minor league options so it is not an issue of losing control over the player via release. (The Cubs outrighted reliever Casey Weathers to Iowa to open up a spot on the 40 man roster. Some speculation is that it is for re-activation of Sveum favorite Blake DeWitt, but I don't know if the Cuban signee, Concepcion's deal requires him to be on the 40 man roster.)
Back to Mather. IN 2011 for the Braves, he had 36 game appearances, 83 AB, 1 HR, 9 RBI, .213 BA, .272 OBP. Not stellar production. In parts of three professional seasons playing RF, LF, CF, 1B and 3B (106 games), his fielding percentage is .983, slightly above average. In 73 games in AAA last season, he hit 7 HR, 35 RBI, .306 BA, .359 OBP and 5 steals. It appears that he is prototypical 25th man, bench player.
If Mather has the inside track to be the 5th OF and pinch hitter off the bench, then Campana and Sappelt will struggle to find time even in Iowa (with Jackson and Szczur there).
So the Cubs bench seems to be shaping up like this (assuming the Cubs take 12 pitchers):
OF reserves: Reed Johnson, Mather
IN reserves: DeWitt, Baker,
Backup C: Castillo or Clevenger
March 13, 2012
March 12, 2012
BEST LINEUP
If this was a Little League tryout camp, and based upon performance so far, the opening day lineup would be this:
1. Castro, ss
2. DeJesus, rf
3. Jackson, cf
4. Soriano, lf
5. LaHair, 1b
6. Castillo, c
7. Stewart 3b
8. Barney 2b
There is too much pressure on Castro in the number three hole. Pressure to carry the offense. Pressure to hit more home runs. When that happens, his average will fall and his mechanics will get messed up. Castro performs the best leading off.
The only possible number three hitter in camp is Brett Jackson. But management has already said he will be in AAA to start the season. Byrd is the starting CF, but he is no #3 hitter. De Jesus, Stewart and Barney are starters because there is no one pushing them for their job. Soto has been out nursing a groin injury, so at this point he and Castillo are interchangeable parts.
The lineup shown above is really the best opening day roster the Cubs have at this point in time.
1. Castro, ss
2. DeJesus, rf
3. Jackson, cf
4. Soriano, lf
5. LaHair, 1b
6. Castillo, c
7. Stewart 3b
8. Barney 2b
There is too much pressure on Castro in the number three hole. Pressure to carry the offense. Pressure to hit more home runs. When that happens, his average will fall and his mechanics will get messed up. Castro performs the best leading off.
The only possible number three hitter in camp is Brett Jackson. But management has already said he will be in AAA to start the season. Byrd is the starting CF, but he is no #3 hitter. De Jesus, Stewart and Barney are starters because there is no one pushing them for their job. Soto has been out nursing a groin injury, so at this point he and Castillo are interchangeable parts.
The lineup shown above is really the best opening day roster the Cubs have at this point in time.
March 10, 2012
THE REPLACEMENTS
One thing a team needs for long term viability is a pipeline of replacement players in their system or a Plan to acquire missing pieces in a time of need. The latter costs a lot of money. It has been the private domain of the big spenders like the Yankees, who can corner a free agent market.
The Cubs under the Tribune thought that way, but signed second tier and declining players to create rosters so the team was competitive enough to sell out Wrigley. But this has changed. The Cubs are a big market team playing by small market rules because the Ricketts family does not or is unwilling to become a deep pocket spender.
So it is up to the System to be the foundation for the Future.
Based on current spring training news, it is pretty certain who will be the Cubs opening day starters. The question is who are their replacements, players the team is counting on for long term stability at the position?
1B: LaHair Replacement: Rizzo
Rizzo is Epstein and Hoyer's centerpiece for their Cubs Way Plan. Rizzo will probably be up in the middle of 2012, or quicker if LaHair turns out to be a 4A player.
2B: Barney Replacement: Torreyes
Torreyes, who was acquired in the Marshall deal, was the low A prospect that has the tool potential to be a top of the order guy. He will not arrive in the majors for at least 3 years.
SS: Castro Replacement: Baez
Some scouting lists have put Baez in the Top 3 of Cub prospects. He is very young but has impressed enough that he may move up the ranks quickly. However, Castro will block him from the major league level unless at some point the Cubs flip Castro in a major deal. That is unlikely.
3B: Stewart Replacement: Vitters
Stewart was acquired from Colorado. He is not a long term solution at third base. Vitters has been in the Cub system longer than a Rip Van Winkle nap. Vitters can bat; the question is whether he can field. The Cubs have been empty on third base prospects since Santo was traded (with exceptions of Madlock and Ramirez).
C: Soto Replacements: Castillo and Clevenger
Soto was a late blooming Rookie of the Year, then slid in production. The Tribune mentality of not playing rookies but finding veterans even for back up duty (Koy Hill) has stunted the promotion of Castillo (who has power) and Clevenger (who has batting average). The team seems to emphasis their negatives in order to justify keeping Soto on the roster. Both Castillo and Clevenger could start today if Soto was traded.
LF: Soriano Replacement: Jae-Hoon Ha
Soriano is your left fielder, like it or not, for the next three seasons. No other team wants him. No manager is going to take the wrath of benching him. Besides, Soriano is still the club's only real HR threat. Ha received a quick peek in Spring training. Some scouts believe he may be a average to bench player an put more stock in a high risk/high reward type of rookie like Reggie Golden. In either event, no rookie ball player will be ready for the majors until 2015.
CF: Byrd Replacement: B. Jackson
Byrd is in the last year of his contract. He may be moved before the trade deadline to open a space for the Cubs #1 prospect, B. Jackson. Jackson has excelled at both AA and AAA last season. He is considered a potential 5 tool player, and a #3 hitter in the order. He will make his debut in 2012.
RF: DeJesus Replacement: Szczur
DeJesus was Epstein's first Cub transaction, so it is likely that DeJesus will be the starter for 2012 and 2013. But Szczur has been on the fast track since he was drafted as a football player out of college. He has the power bat potential that the team will need to fill quickly. He may be a surprise call up in 2012 but will press for a position in 2013.
Two positions are ripe for a turnover very soon: 1B and CF
Three positions could turnover in 2013: CF, 3B and C
The rest, LF, RF, SS and 2B, will not have a new regular until probably 2015. And that represents 50% of your position starters. And of those four slots, you really need to upgrade all of them except Castro at short.
The Cubs under the Tribune thought that way, but signed second tier and declining players to create rosters so the team was competitive enough to sell out Wrigley. But this has changed. The Cubs are a big market team playing by small market rules because the Ricketts family does not or is unwilling to become a deep pocket spender.
So it is up to the System to be the foundation for the Future.
Based on current spring training news, it is pretty certain who will be the Cubs opening day starters. The question is who are their replacements, players the team is counting on for long term stability at the position?
1B: LaHair Replacement: Rizzo
Rizzo is Epstein and Hoyer's centerpiece for their Cubs Way Plan. Rizzo will probably be up in the middle of 2012, or quicker if LaHair turns out to be a 4A player.
2B: Barney Replacement: Torreyes
Torreyes, who was acquired in the Marshall deal, was the low A prospect that has the tool potential to be a top of the order guy. He will not arrive in the majors for at least 3 years.
SS: Castro Replacement: Baez
Some scouting lists have put Baez in the Top 3 of Cub prospects. He is very young but has impressed enough that he may move up the ranks quickly. However, Castro will block him from the major league level unless at some point the Cubs flip Castro in a major deal. That is unlikely.
3B: Stewart Replacement: Vitters
Stewart was acquired from Colorado. He is not a long term solution at third base. Vitters has been in the Cub system longer than a Rip Van Winkle nap. Vitters can bat; the question is whether he can field. The Cubs have been empty on third base prospects since Santo was traded (with exceptions of Madlock and Ramirez).
C: Soto Replacements: Castillo and Clevenger
Soto was a late blooming Rookie of the Year, then slid in production. The Tribune mentality of not playing rookies but finding veterans even for back up duty (Koy Hill) has stunted the promotion of Castillo (who has power) and Clevenger (who has batting average). The team seems to emphasis their negatives in order to justify keeping Soto on the roster. Both Castillo and Clevenger could start today if Soto was traded.
LF: Soriano Replacement: Jae-Hoon Ha
Soriano is your left fielder, like it or not, for the next three seasons. No other team wants him. No manager is going to take the wrath of benching him. Besides, Soriano is still the club's only real HR threat. Ha received a quick peek in Spring training. Some scouts believe he may be a average to bench player an put more stock in a high risk/high reward type of rookie like Reggie Golden. In either event, no rookie ball player will be ready for the majors until 2015.
CF: Byrd Replacement: B. Jackson
Byrd is in the last year of his contract. He may be moved before the trade deadline to open a space for the Cubs #1 prospect, B. Jackson. Jackson has excelled at both AA and AAA last season. He is considered a potential 5 tool player, and a #3 hitter in the order. He will make his debut in 2012.
RF: DeJesus Replacement: Szczur
DeJesus was Epstein's first Cub transaction, so it is likely that DeJesus will be the starter for 2012 and 2013. But Szczur has been on the fast track since he was drafted as a football player out of college. He has the power bat potential that the team will need to fill quickly. He may be a surprise call up in 2012 but will press for a position in 2013.
Two positions are ripe for a turnover very soon: 1B and CF
Three positions could turnover in 2013: CF, 3B and C
The rest, LF, RF, SS and 2B, will not have a new regular until probably 2015. And that represents 50% of your position starters. And of those four slots, you really need to upgrade all of them except Castro at short.
March 9, 2012
BIG HOLES TO FILL
So far this spring, the Cubs starter candidates have a combined ERA of 2.25, with three scoreless innings from Samardzija and Volstad. On the other hand, the bullpen pitchers have an obese ERA of 8.45, led by closer Marmol.
Manager Sveum just realized yesterday that he has to fill the 78 relief appearances of Sean Marshall, who was traded to the Reds. When asked, Kerry Wood said no, at his stage of his career he is as brittle as a Ming vase. So Sveum is thinking that maybe one or two of the starter candidates who don't get into the rotation would fill this void. Say, Randy Wells. Well, it is not as easy as it sounds.
First, a long time starter such as Wells would find it a "demotion" to sent to the bullpen. Second, a starter usual routine is pitch every fifth day and rest for four days in a row. A reliever such as Marshall was "on call" everyday. Third, changing the mindset of 33 starts into 78 relief appearances is not easy.
The pitchers who were going to cover the back end of the bullpen are gone: Cashner, Carpenter and Marshall were all traded by Epstein.
But as Steve Stone once said, "all relievers are failed starters."
The crop of potential new Cub relievers include Lopez, Wells, Sonnanstine, T. Wood, Coleman and Samardzija (where he was successful last season). The Cubs are pushing Samardzija as a starter because he is a power pitcher to compliment the finesse lefty starters.
It appears that the Cubs will not use any of the minor league pitching prospects to fill the bullpen voids. It is because the pressure to win, even in a clear rebuilding year, is on Sveum who will be compared to Quade from Day One. The pressure to win is from Ricketts, who needs to sell tickets.
Besides Marmol, K. Wood and J. Russell, the Cubs bullpen is an open, empty corral.
Manager Sveum just realized yesterday that he has to fill the 78 relief appearances of Sean Marshall, who was traded to the Reds. When asked, Kerry Wood said no, at his stage of his career he is as brittle as a Ming vase. So Sveum is thinking that maybe one or two of the starter candidates who don't get into the rotation would fill this void. Say, Randy Wells. Well, it is not as easy as it sounds.
First, a long time starter such as Wells would find it a "demotion" to sent to the bullpen. Second, a starter usual routine is pitch every fifth day and rest for four days in a row. A reliever such as Marshall was "on call" everyday. Third, changing the mindset of 33 starts into 78 relief appearances is not easy.
The pitchers who were going to cover the back end of the bullpen are gone: Cashner, Carpenter and Marshall were all traded by Epstein.
But as Steve Stone once said, "all relievers are failed starters."
The crop of potential new Cub relievers include Lopez, Wells, Sonnanstine, T. Wood, Coleman and Samardzija (where he was successful last season). The Cubs are pushing Samardzija as a starter because he is a power pitcher to compliment the finesse lefty starters.
It appears that the Cubs will not use any of the minor league pitching prospects to fill the bullpen voids. It is because the pressure to win, even in a clear rebuilding year, is on Sveum who will be compared to Quade from Day One. The pressure to win is from Ricketts, who needs to sell tickets.
Besides Marmol, K. Wood and J. Russell, the Cubs bullpen is an open, empty corral.
March 7, 2012
PERFORMANCE IS BAD
The New Cubs are operating just like the Old Cub management. There is a fear that real competition for roster spots is a bad thing: it creates a negative atmosphere. It is not good for morale. It upsets pricey veterans that we have to play because they will get paid.
Brett Jackson is hitting lights out this spring, but manager Sveum said there is no room for him on the major league roster. He will only be called up if he plays everyday. Therefore, Iowa is his destination because no one wants to make the hard decision to sit or cut a Soriano, or a Byrd.
This camp comes down to a hand full of roster decisions. First, back up catcher. Soto came to camp and immediately sat with a groin strain. Ex-Pirate Jaramillo is now also hurt, leaving the catching duties to Castillo and Clevenger. One of those two will probably be the back up catcher on the opening day roster.
Sveum also said he has "a heck of bench" in Reed Johnson, Baker and DeWitt (who is not on the roster). And he said he does not need to carry a backup for Castro because Barney plays that role. (The same thinking of last season). So the one open bench spot is for a reserve outfielder between Campana, Sappelt and Joe Mather, none of which can match the skill set and current performance of Brett Jackson.
Third, the 5th starter appears to be the only open pitching spot. A shotgun approach of throwing Volstad, Samardzija, Coleman, Lopez, Sonnanstine and the kitchen sink to the mound to see who can throw strikes is going to be inconsequential in the long run. The bullpen will be sewed together by whomever does not make the starting rotation ("all relievers are failed starters.")
So, the 2012 Cubs are going to be an almost mirror image of the 2011 Cubs, except with new players on the infield corners, less power hitters, and more average pitchers.
Brett Jackson is hitting lights out this spring, but manager Sveum said there is no room for him on the major league roster. He will only be called up if he plays everyday. Therefore, Iowa is his destination because no one wants to make the hard decision to sit or cut a Soriano, or a Byrd.
This camp comes down to a hand full of roster decisions. First, back up catcher. Soto came to camp and immediately sat with a groin strain. Ex-Pirate Jaramillo is now also hurt, leaving the catching duties to Castillo and Clevenger. One of those two will probably be the back up catcher on the opening day roster.
Sveum also said he has "a heck of bench" in Reed Johnson, Baker and DeWitt (who is not on the roster). And he said he does not need to carry a backup for Castro because Barney plays that role. (The same thinking of last season). So the one open bench spot is for a reserve outfielder between Campana, Sappelt and Joe Mather, none of which can match the skill set and current performance of Brett Jackson.
Third, the 5th starter appears to be the only open pitching spot. A shotgun approach of throwing Volstad, Samardzija, Coleman, Lopez, Sonnanstine and the kitchen sink to the mound to see who can throw strikes is going to be inconsequential in the long run. The bullpen will be sewed together by whomever does not make the starting rotation ("all relievers are failed starters.")
So, the 2012 Cubs are going to be an almost mirror image of the 2011 Cubs, except with new players on the infield corners, less power hitters, and more average pitchers.
March 6, 2012
SURPLUS PITCHING
It is rare to find a major league club with excess starting pitching. The Nationals have found themselves in the midst of such a pleasant predicament. Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman are the young starters on the staff. The Nats aggressively went out and traded for Gio Gonzalez and signed free agents Edwin Jackson and Chien-Ming Wang.
The Nats also have John Lannan, Yukieski Maya and Ross Detwiler in the mix for the 5th starter if one of the recent acquisitions falters.
So it would appear that the Nats have a surplus starter open for trade.
The Nats also have John Lannan, Yukieski Maya and Ross Detwiler in the mix for the 5th starter if one of the recent acquisitions falters.
So it would appear that the Nats have a surplus starter open for trade.
Lannan, a 27-year-old southpaw, posted a 10-13 record, with 3.70 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, a K/BB ratio of 1.39. He had 54.1% groundball rate in 184 2/3 innings last year. His career ERA is 4.00. He is comparable to Floyd Bannister in his career numbers.
Lannan will make $5 million this season. He's technically under team control through 2013, but if another typical season pushes him to the $7.5MM salary range for 2013. So if the Nats are going to deal him, now would be the time.
As the Cubs are found of saying, they look to obtain "assets." A left handed starting pitcher with an ERA of less than 4.00 that is under control for 2 seasons is a quality asset, especially for a contender.
The Cubs are in a payroll constraint because they are "rebuilding" (no matter what the owner says to the contrary). However, there is a way to make the deal: trade Byrd's $6.5 million salary for Lannan's $5 million. Washington is looking for a right handed hitting center fielder. By trading Byrd, it opens up CF for Brett Jackson, who would immediately fit either the #1 or #3 hole in the weak Cub batting order.
And you have to view such a deal from the question of whether Lannan would be an "upgrade" over the current 4th or 5th starter. The Cubs rotation of Garza, Maholm, Dempster, and T. Wood is pretty set. Lannan would be an upgrade from Volstad, Lopez, Samardzija, Coleman, or another walk on battling for the 5th starting spot.
It is a deal that makes sense which means it won't get done.
March 3, 2012
LINE UP QUESTIONS
The early debate in spring training is who will be Sveum's lead off man. When DeJesus was signed, it was stated that he would be the lead off guy. But now, the old grumblings of Soriano returning to the top has surfaced and not yet been discounted by Sveum. Sveum continually remarks that he does not have any traditional one through six hitters at his disposal. In other words, Sveum has nothing to work with.
But here are the projected Cubs starters:
Player HR-RBI-AVG-OBP
But here are the projected Cubs starters:
Player HR-RBI-AVG-OBP
DeJesus rf 10- 46 .240 .323
Byrd cf 9-35 .276 .324
Soriano lf 26-88 .244 .289
Stewart 3b 0-6 .156 .243
Castro ss 10-66 .307 .341
Barney 2b 2-43 .276 .313
LaHair 1b 2-6 .288 .377
Soto c 17-54 .228 .310
In a pure "small ball world," where OBP is most important, you would stack your lineup with the highest OBP hitters:
1. LaHair .377
2. Castro .341
3. Byrd .324
4. DeJesus .323
5. Barney .313
6. Soto .310
7. Soriano .289
8. Stewart .243
But that line up looks really odd. Another philosophy is to put best base hitters on top and best RBI men from #3 down then around the line up card.
1. Stewart 6
2. LaHair 6
3. Soriano 88
4. Castro 66
5. Soto 54
6. DeJesus 46
7. Barney 43
8. Byrd 35
In a similar vein, run your best HR hitters from #3 and around back to the top.
1. Barney 2
2. Stewart 0
3. Soriano 26
4. Soto 17
5. Castro 10
6. DeJesus 10
7. Byrd 9
8. LaHair 2
If you assign points to all these batting orders to get a composite line up, here is what that would look like (lower number, higher in the order):
1. Castro (11)
LaHair (11)
Stewart (11)
4. Soriano (13)
Barney (13)
6. Soto (15)
7. DeJesus (16)
8. Byrd (18)
You cannot have three players bat lead off at the same time (but that would be an interesting experiment in surrealism), but it does give a sense that the Cubs batter are a mish-mosh of mediocrity. The only thing that seems clear could be Soto, DeJesus and Byrd at the bottom of the order. The Cubs expect Stewart to have a massive rebound to middle of the order power hitting season. But that is not a guarantee. The Cubs have no traditional lead off man so Castro, Barney, or DeJesus could be plugged into that role.
Will Sveum get a set line up by the end of spring training and stick with it? Or will he fiddle with it like Lou Piniella did on a daily basis?
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