DOUBLE BUST

MLTR reports  that the Red Sox will designate Marlon Byrd for assignment tomorrow, reports MLB.com's Ian Browne. The move will clear a roster spot for Daisuke Matsuzaka who will be coming off the disabled list to start on Saturday.

Byrd, 34, was traded from the Cubs for RP Michael Bowden and P Hunter Cervenka  as the Red Sox were trying to contain the damage following Jacob Ellsbury's April shoulder injury back in April. Byrd hit .273/.288/.333 in 105 plate appearances for Boston. Chicago is paying all but $400K of Byrd's $6.5MM this season, so the move doesn't hurt the Red Sox's bottom line. Bowden was DFA'd by the Cubs last week.

This is an example of the extremely rare DOUBLE BUST!!!

So the centerpiece of the deal was Nothing for Nothing (except the Red Sox did get more production out of Byrd than the Cubs did with Bowden).

The Cubs were playing bad and their bullpen was in a mess before the Byrd deal. Byrd was blocking AAA prospect Brett Jackson's promotion.

The Red Sox were in serious need of a major league OF. The conditions were perfect for an early Cub season trade: to fill a glaring need of an opponent in exchange for moving salary and start rebuilding with young talent.

But that is not what happened. 

A) The Cubs continue to pay most of Byrd's salary.

B) Epstein should have been aware that Bowden was a classic AAAA pitcher.

C) The Cubs did not promote Jackson; instead decided to triple platoon with pinch runner Campana, journeyman Mather and end of career Johnson in center.

This event does not bode well for how new Cub management fixes problems. Epstein critics point out that in Boston, he buried many of his problems with cash because the Red Sox were a revenue generating monster. The Cubs are a different operation; Ricketts painted himself into a financial corner by overpaying for the team, overpaying for duplicate management positions and has a quickening attendance fall-off for his bad baseball product. The Cubs may play in a big city, but they have the financial balance sheet of a small market club struggling to get by.

Since the Cubs will hold a fire sale of existing 40 man roster talent before the trade deadline in July, fans should not be comforted by the Byrd deal. It could get worse. Management may decide to bring back Byrd  - - - you can hear the thuds of Cub fan jaws gaping at that prospect. The rationale: we are still paying Byrd, so he should play for us. That is not a rebuilding move but a backward progression toward team stagnation.

QUICK WORK

It took the Atlanta Braves less than 24 hours to sign their top five draft selections.  That is Light Speed considering the unknown ramifications of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement and slot calculations.

The Cubs are on the opposite end of the spectrum.

Their first round selection, Albert Almora, is a high school senior who has a full ride scholarship to Miami. As a Florida kid, Almora was excited to get a scholarship. However, he is also been on numerous Team USA squads and wants to play professional ball.  His only leverage to get beyond the #6 slot bonus amount is say he won't sign and go to college.

Almora's agent is Scott Boras. He does not like the new CBA draft system. His other client, Stanford pitcher Appel, went from the #1 pick, turning down a $6 million bonus, to being selected #8 by Pittsburgh. Appel was made about the events. Boras was livid about the events. By dropping eight spots, the bonus money is about half.  Appel also has the option to return to college for his final year.

So, some writers believe that Boras may make a stand and play hard ball with the Cubs on Almora. The Cubs really can't sign any of their Top 10 selections without first knowing if they can sign Almora.

On the upside, if the Cubs don't sign Almora, they lose the slot amount in their bonus pool for this year. But they get a compensation pick in next year's draft (at #6). So in theory, a bad Cubs 2012 could lead to having a #2 and #6 selection in the 2013 draft.

But the same signability issues will happen again next year.

OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Cubs GM Hoyer all but admitted that the team is open for business: trade business as Sellers.

He said in the papers today that he has had various discussions with multiple teams about availability of players.  Let the fire sale begin.

But with the Cubs being in dead last place and struggling with most parts of the game, how much value is there in trading for a Cub? It depends a) how how desperate a contender is to fill a sudden need or roster void; and b) how few other Sellers are out there in the market place.  As of today, there are probably only 4 Sellers (Cubs, Astros, Padres, Twins) and maybe 15 Buyers.

So what about the Cub merchandise?

High trade value:

1) Samardzija RHP: Starters are always in demand in a pennant run due to a contender's team having staff injuries. Samardzija has been the most consistent starter that is affordable in a trade.  He could get a Marshall like return: a major league ready prospect, and a high and low level minor leaguer.

2) Ryan Dempster, RHP: The prototypical "rent a player," a free agent after the end of the season means no commitment by his new club.  He has been pitching better than his record, and is viewed as a good clubhouse leader which could help a younger contender into the playoffs. He could get a high minor league prospect and one or two throw-in minor leaguers.

3) Matt Garza, RHP: A starter with prior trade value but who has underperformed since becoming a Cub. He is young but wants an expensive extension. As such, it narrows the potential Buyers to big market teams (Yankees, Red Sox) and may bring only one quality prospect in return.

Above average trade value:

4) LaHair 1B: He has shown power in his first full season in the majors. Negative factor is his age. Positive factor is that he has little service time so he is controllable and cheap. He only fields one position, first, which narrows the market to a fill-in, injury peacekeeper or a AL DH. He could probably fetch a good AA prospect and an underwhelming developmental project. The Cubs could take less if they want to promote Rizzo later this season.

5) R. Johnson, OF: GMs around the trading deadline always like to upgrade their bench for the stretch run. They are not looking for replacement starters, but good guys off the bench to pinch hit, spot start and play good defense. Johnson has been asked about for the last two years. He could probably get a good AA prospect and/or cash considerations.

Average trade value:

6) Russell, LHP: GMs also look to shore up any weaknesses in their bullpens at the trade deadline. In the past, a few teams "overspent" on relievers. However, lessons were learned the hard way. Russell projects to other teams as a lefty specialist in the pen. He could get a quality A-AA player in return.

7) DeJesus, OF: if a contender has a major injury to a starting outfielder, then DeJesus has trade value even though he is not hitting for power or stealing bases.  He could command a similar value as the Red Sox gave for Byrd, a marginal AAA-major league player who is out of options (a classic AAAA player).

8) Mather, IN-OF: If a team is in need of a jack-of-all trades on the cheap, Mather could fit the bill. He can play third, first, all outfield positions and pinch hit with some power. He could get a developing AA player or two in return.

Below average trade value:

9) Soto, C: even though power hitting catchers are rare in the NL, Soto's nagging injury history and slumping batting stats are more negative than the promise of his rookie of the year season. Most teams have their main catcher in place, who is familiar with the pitching staff. Soto would become an expensive back up for most trade partners. As a result, his trade value would be low level prospects.

10) Barney, 2B-SS: Barney is turning into a Ryan Theriot Lite. He is average to below average in most elements of his game (batting, fielding, range, base running) so he projects not as a replacement starter, but the 25th man on the bench (an upgrade over a rookie or AAAA call up). He could probably get a low A player in trade.

No trade value:

11) Soriano, LF:  With two bad knees, defensive short comings and bad plate discipline, Soriano has no value in the trade market.  Even if the Cubs would eat the remaining $48 million left on his contract, no team would want to keep him on the bench for its term.

12) Stewart, 3B: With a current, nagging wrist injury and a below .200 batting average, Stewart is not the comeback player of the year that Epstein proclaimed when he traded for him. If this was a roll of the dice gamble, Theo crapped out.

13) Campana, OF: Campana is a one trick pony - - - a base stealer. He is also shown that he is a strike out machine. So he is not a lead off hitter or a defensive replacement specialist. Very few teams, if any, have the luxury to carry a pinch runner on the roster.

14) Baker, IN-OF: He has not played enough to be on any other team's radar. He would be at best a bench player with no outstanding above average skill set.

Investments:

The players the Cubs will not trade (unless the offer is overwhelming) because the following players appear to be foundational in the rebuilding process for the team.

Castro, SS: At 22, it is hard to find a consistent .300.  The negative is his defense and OBP, but he could still be the cornerstone of the infield for the next five years.

Clevenger, C: As a left hand hitting catcher with some batting patience, he probably is slotted as the back up catcher next season if Soto remains with the club.

W. Castillo, C: Appears to be the perfect platoon partner with Clevenger if Soto is traded to another team.

Cardenas, IN: Appears to be the Barney replacement in waiting or the next super sub to replace Mather, Baker, et al.

DRAFT RECAP

Major league baseball is trying to force teams to draft not on signability but draft on talent basis. With the new CBA restrictions on draft pool budgets, slotting prices for the first ten rounds, and massive penalties for overspending, it will be interesting to see which teams understood the dynamics of the potential unintended consequences of the new system when restocking their minor leagues with prospects.

Any player draft is a crap shoot. High school prospects are a greater risk because of the talent level is less overall than at the college ranks. High school players often viewed as higher ceilings and college players higher floors.  High school and undergrads have some leverage in negotiating their signing bonuses because they can still remain in school. College seniors have no real leverage, and come cheaper (usually at a 30% discount) because if they want to continue playing ball, they have to sign.

Of all the selections on the first two days of the draft, only 10% will have quality major league careers.  A good organization hopes to bump up that success rate to 15%. So, of the Cub selections, one or two will probably be contributing major leaguers. Overall, the Cub draft was not the best, but not the worst but it did have some puzzling high selections of pitchers with current arm injuries and the large number of high school selections for a team in a quick rebuild mode.

Albert Almora with their first-round selection in Monday's draft.  The Florida high school outfielder has the Team USA experience and scouts like how he projects into major league tools. However, he has a full college scholarship and an agent who may want the Cubs to overspend to sign him. As being the first selection by Epstein as Cub boss, you would expect that the organization wants to vindicate itself with its talent evaluation process to sign and promote Almora quickly through the system.

In the compensation round, the Cubs selected right-hander Pierce Johnson out of Missouri State (43rd overall) and grabbed right-hander Paul Blackburn out of Heritage High School in California (56th overall). 

Johnson, a 6-foot-3, 175-pound righty, recently completed his senior season at Missouri State. He was ranked the No. 38 overall prospect by MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo after going 4-6 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 starts this season.

The 22-year-old right-hander had been rising on many Draft boards earlier this year, but suffered a forearm strain in April. He closed the year by posting a 2.36 ERA and striking out 55 in 53 1/3 innings. He also threw three complete games (one shutout) and struck out a single-season school record 119 in 99 2/3 innings. 

Johnson has two plus-pitches: a fastball that touches 94 mph and a hard curveball. He profiles as a No. 3-type Major League starter and has drawn comparisons to Nationals closer Drew Storen.

Blackburn is a 6-foot-2, 185-pound right-hander out of Heritage (Calif.) High School who is committed to Arizona State. He boasts a fastball that regularly hits 92 mph with the ability to go a bit higher, and also features a curve and changeup that show potential to grow.

The 18-year-old went 8-3 with a 1.27 ERA this season, striking out 84 in 77 1/3 innings, and posted a 1.50 ERA the past two years. He was ranked the No. 69 overall prospect, according to Mayo.

The Cubs selected pitchers in the second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth, 10th, 12th and 14th rounds on Tuesday. They also used two of their three selections on pitchers on Monday. 

The Cubs drafted Pope High School (Ga.) right-handed pitcher Duane Underwood in the second round at No. 67 overall. Underwood, who is 6-2 and 205 pounds, is signed with Georgia. 

Nipomo High School (Calif.) right-handed pitcher Ryan McNeil, who is 6-3 and 210 pounds, was taken in the third round. McNeil is signed with Long Beach State. 

Coastal Carolina junior right-handed pitcher Josh Conway, who is 6-1, 175 pound, was selected in the fourth round. Conway had Tommy John surgery on his right elbow in May. He was 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in nine starts this season. He allowed 43 hits, 13 earned runs, 18 walks and struck out 50 hitters in 54 2/3 innings.  

Americas High School (Texas) left-handed pitcher Anthony Prieto, who is 5-11, 170 pounds, was drafted in the fifth round. 

GateWay junior college right-handed pitcher Trey Lang, who is 6-3 and 225 pounds, was taken in the sixth round. He was 2-2 with five saves and a 0.87 ERA in 50 appearances this season. He allowed 16 hits, three earned runs, 14 walks and struck out 31 hitters in 31 innings. 

Virginia redshirt sophomore third baseman Stephen Bruno was taken in the seventh round. Bruno, who is 5-9 and 175 pounds, led Virginia with a .370 average and 88 hits this season. He also had 49 runs, 23 doubles, two triples, six home runs, 54 RBIs, 11 stolen bases and a .424 on-base percentage.  He missed a majority of the 2011 season with a hamstring injury. 

South Carolina Beaufort senior left-handed pitcher Michael Heesch was drafted in the eighth round. Heesch, who is 6-5, played two years at UIC and attended Prairie Ridge High School in Crystal Lake, Ill. He was 9-3 with a 2.21 ERA in 18 starts this season. He allowed 115 hits, 30 earned runs, 13 walks and struck out 118 batters in 122 1/3 innings. He pitched nine innings in six starts this season. 

California senior catcher Chadd Krist was selected in the ninth round. Krist, who is 5-11 and 190 pounds, hit .294 with 29 runs, 65 hits, 19 doubles, four home runs, 36 RBIs, a .436 slugging percentage and a .325 on-base percentage this season. He threw out seven of 38 runners attempting to steal. 

Indiana senior right-handed pitcher Chad Martin was drafted in the 10th round. Martin, who is 6-7 and 230 pounds, was 2-3 with a 4.79 ERA in 19 games, which included nine starts, with the Hoosiers this season. He allowed 80 hits, 36 earned runs, 27 walks and struck out 47 hitters in 67 2/3 innings. 

Mundy’s Mill High School (Ga.) center fielder Rashad Crawford, who is 6-3 and 185 pounds, was taken in the 11th round. He is signed with Savannah State. 

Louisville junior redshirt right-handed pitcher Justin Amlung was drafted in the 12th round. Amlung, who is 6-1 and 180 pounds, was 9-4 with a 2.31 ERA in 16 starts this season. He allowed 83 hits, 28 earned runs, 26 walks and struck out 105 hitters in 109 innings. 

Orange Coast junior college outfielder Bijan Rademacher was selected in the 13th round. Rademacher, who is 6-0 and 200 pounds, had a .349 average with 31 runs, 51 hits, seven doubles, three triples, seven home runs, 49 RBIs, a .426 on-base percentage and a .582 slugging percentage this season. 

St. Petersburg junior college right-handed pitcher Corbin Hoffner was drafted in the 14th round. Hoffner, who is 6-5 and 235 pounds, was 5-5 with a 2.52 ERA in 14 games this season. He allowed 60 hits, 20 earned runs, 16 walks and struck out 73 hitters in 71 1/3 innings. 

Nevada junior catcher Carlos Escobar Jr. was selected in the 15th round. Escobar, who is 6-2 and 185 pounds, hit .283 with 28 runs, 14 doubles, a triple, four home runs and 38 RBIs this season. He was drafted in the 41st round by the Houston Astros in 2009.


Based upon the tenor of the reactions from Almora's camp, Almora may be a difficult signing as he favors playing for the University of Miami in the fall. Even if Almora joins the Cubs, he would begin his career in Class A with a projected development time of four years. It would appear from the other selections, that at best, maybe Lang will arrive in the majors first as a bullpen reliever. Bruno will probably become the No. 2 third baseman in the minors (after Vitters) by default. Heesch may compete for a No. 5 starter role in 2014.

DRAFT ROUND ONE

Experts said this year was a weaker talent pool. Add the factor of a spending cap under the new CBA, teams may have been more worried about "sign ability" than the best talent available.  However, there was a consensus on what players were Top 10 selections.


History has taught that selecting high school players are a greater risk because you have more development of 18 year olds than college players who have played against better competition. High school players are riskier propositions, but may have more upside potential than some college seniors.
As some observers keenly put it: the draft is a crap shoot.


The first round:


 1. Astros: Carlos Correa, ss 
  2. Twins: Byron Buxton, of 
  3. Mariners: Mike Zunino, c 
  4. Orioles: Kevin Gausman, rhp
  5. Royals: Kyle Zimmer, rhp 
  6. Cubs: Albert Almora, of 
  7. Padres: Max Fried, lhp 
  8. Pirates: Mark Appel, rhp 
  9. Marlins: Andrew Heaney, lhp
10. Rockies: David Dahl, of 
11. Athletics: Addison Russell, ss 
12. Mets: Gavin Cecchini, ss 
13. White Sox: Courtney Hawkins, of 
14. Reds: Nick Travieso, rhp 
15. Indians: Tyler Naquin, of 
16. Nationals: Lucas Giolito, rhp
17. Blue Jays: D.J. Davis, of 
18. Dodgers: Corey Seager, 3b 
19. Cardinals: Michael Wacha, rhp 
20. Giants: Chris Stratton, rhp 
21. Braves: Lucas Sims, rhp 
22. Blue Jays: Marcus Stroman, rhp 
23. Cardinals: James Ramsey, of
24. Red Sox: Deven Marrero, ss 
25. Rays: Richie Shaffer, 3b 
26. Diamondbacks: Stryker Trahan, c/of 
27. Brewers: Clint Coulter, c 
28. Brewers: Victor Roache, of 
29. Rangers: Lewis Brinson, of 
30. Yankees: Ty Hensley, rhp 
31. Red Sox: Brian Johnson, lhp


The first surprise is the Astros taking Correa, a shortstop that worked out for the Cubs last week. Word on the street was that the Astros would pick the best pitcher available, Mark Appel.  But Appel has signability questions because his agent is Scott Boras.  Which makes the Pirates selection of Appel at No. 8 a curious decision, since under the slotting caps, the Pirates would be offering Appel almost $3.5 million less than being a No. 1 pick.


Various news reports have Appel not happy with how things worked out; he did not talk to Pittsburgh writers after his selection. Besides Appel sliding down the board, RHP Giolito going at No. 16 was a mild surprise (he has had arm injuries) and 3B Shaffer falling to No. 25.


Both the Cubs and the White Sox took "safe" picks from a scouting standpoint.


But none of these selections are going to help the teams in the short term.  None have "fast track" ability like the Nationals have done with Strasburg and Harper.  


The North Siders touted their pick in their press release:


The Chicago Cubs tonight selected Albert Almora of Mater Academy Charter School with the sixth overall pick in the 2012 First-Year Player Draft. Almora, 18, is a six-foot-two, 180-pound outfielder from Hialeah Gardens, Fla. 


Almora hit .603 with 13 doubles, five triples, six home runs, 34 RBI and 24 stolen bases with a 1.164 slugging percentage and .667 on-base percentage in 25 games for Mater Academy last season. 



The South Siders toasted their first pick, Texas High School player Courtney Hawkins, in their release:


Hawkins is batting .437 with 11 home runs, 39 RBIs, 56 runs scored, 17 stolen bases, a .580 on-base and .874 slugging percentage in 36 games this season.

Hawkins' Carroll High School remains alive in the Texas 5A State baseball tournament, with Hawkins focused on helping his team win a state title this weekend. The young man also can pitch, carrying a 5-2 record with a 0.96 ERA, 57 strikeouts over 36 1/3 innings and a velocity ranging from 92-96 mph when he pitched Carroll to a regional championship.

Life for Hawkins with the White Sox will be strictly in the outfield, where he is projected as a plus-power corner man, and has set lofty goals for current Major Leaguers he would like to emulate.

GM Kenny Williams must not have been happy when Hawkins did a back flip on the MLB network after his selection. There is also a concern on whether he can keep his weight under control. But Hawkins admires the career of Frank Thomas which is a good role model for a Sox player.

In the supplemental first round, the Cubs had two selections, neither were on the expert mock draft boards:

At No. 43, Pierce Johnson, RHP, Missouri State. The analysis on Johnson is that he has a good fastball and breaking ball, but "has difficulty staying healthy." Major league track: 2014.

At No. 56, Paul Blackburn, RHP from Oakley, CA high school. He has a low 90s fastball, and will have to develop two other pitches. Major league track: 2016.

The White Sox had one other pick as well:

At No. 48, Keon Barnum, 1B, Tampa, FL high school.  The 6'5" lefty power hitter hit .414 as a senior and .479 as a junior. Baseball America called this selection one of the three surprise "reaches" on day one of the Draft. Major league track: 2016.

DRAFT WEEKEND

The  Amateur Baseball Draft begins June 4. This is the time of great speculation as teams select college and high school players under the new restrictions of the collective bargaining agreement. You will continue to hear that drafting players is a crap shoot; that most teams rely upon selecting "the best available player" on your board no matter what needs the team has down the road.


Opinions vary as the number of stars in the sky, a sampling of prospect rankings are as follows:

RANK	BA 500	draftsite	sb nation	mymlbdraft	draftinsider	minorleague	walker
6	Correa SS HS	Zunilo C Fla	Almora OF HS	Correa SS HS	Appel RHP Stanford	Fried LHP HS	Almora OF HS
43	Kelly 3B/P HS	Weickel RHP HS	Rahier SS HS	Weickel RHP HS	Gueller OF HS
56	Avis RHP HS	Haniger OF CalPoly	Nay 3B HS	Avis RHP HS
66	Bean C HS	Winston RHP HS	Walker 1B/OF Jackvlle
97	Renda 2B Cal	Butler RHP Radford	Traver RHP HS

The Cubs have Picks 6, 43, 56, 66 and 97.  As such, only two other teams have more picks (1) in the Top 100 than the Cubs. With four picks in the Top 100, the Cubs should be able to re-stock their system quickly with quality players. However, that pre-supposes that the Cubs do not over reach with their selections.

After reviewing the draft blogs and baseball experts views, the consensus appears to be that the following players are the best in this relatively weak draft class:

Bryon Buxton, OF, HS

Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford

Kevin Gauseman , RHP, LSU

Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson

Carlos Correa, SS, HS

Albert Almora, OF, HS

Kyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco

Max Fried, LHP, HS

Lucas Giolito, RHP, HS

Any of those selections by the Cubs at # 6 would not raise any issues. Local media reports indicate that the Cubs have worked out Fried and Correa.

The issue the Cub fans may have is drafting high school players means more time in the minors to develop and reach the major league team. Cub fans patience is wearing very thin. Cub fans expect a championship caliber team now (as Tom Ricketts has now promised since he purchased the team). But the chart indicates that the draft will be mostly high school players (which adds to the hit-or-miss venerability of the process).

If we digest the chart above as to the Best available player at #6, it is pretty evenly split between Correa, Almora and a pitcher (Appel, Fried). Most experts believe that the college pitchers,  Appel, Gauseman and Zimmer will be gone before the Cubs select. However, if one of them drops to the Cubs, he would be the most "ready" prospect to help the major league club and should be taken by Epstein and Hoyer. The other possible drop to six is Florida catcher Mike Zunilo. The Cubs are pretty well stocked with major league ready catchers to select another one at #6.

If you look at critical needs for the Cubs now and in the future, the draft should concentrate on pitchers with immediate promotion, third base, second base, more pitching depth and later infield, outfield and catching prospects. 

If the mock boards are any indication of the future, the Cubs could be drafting:

6. Correa, SS, who would probably start in A ball, with Baez in AA and Lake in AAA next year. Correa would be effectively blocked up the ladder including with Castro at the major league level.

43. Weickel, RHP, HS, who would also start his career in A ball with a three year window to AAA.

56. Avis, RHP, HS, who would be in tandem with Weickel on a three or four year plan.

It would be a hard sell to tell fans to wait until 2016 to see if the Cubs got this year's talent evaluation correct.

CASTRO REVOLT

The inter webs are buzzing over the Bob Nightengale, USA Today piece that quotes sources as saying the Cubs are open to trading anyone on their roster except pitcher Jeff Samardzija.  The inference was that  the Cubs would listen to offers on any of their players, including their 22 year old All-Star potential shortstop Starlin Castro.

Some fans believe Castro, the first truly young Cub prospect to make it in the majors right off the bat, is the foundation of the future. Other fans believe that Castro is still too raw (especially on defense), not disciplined at the plate (a Soriano influence of free swinging) and is not improving all his skill sets as one would expect.

Castro takes a free wheeling approach at the plate. His talent level, eye to hand coordination, is so great that he can get wood on just about any pitch near the plate. He has consistently hit around .300, but he has a low on-base percentage. His plate discipline has been criticized because he does not like to take pitches or draw walks. He has yet to show consistent power or RBI production ability of a #3 or #4 hitter.

It is clear that Castro's trade "value" is at its highest at the present moment. There is no doubt that a dozen or so teams would love to pencil in Castro at short in their line-up.

The question is at what cost?

Are teams willing to give up two "impact" prospects, or major league ready players, for one .300 hitting shortstop with some clear deficiencies?  If Castro is the one missing piece in a contender's playoff run, the answer is yes.  If it a team on the bubble who may be a gun-shy "buyer" at the trade deadline, perhaps not.

Every general manager needs to be open about trading any of the team's players at any time. Some GMs fall in love with their own draft choices to the point of "over-valuating" them (and in turn, undervaluing other team prospects). Since Epstein is allegedly keen on managing "assets," Castro's contract is one of those assets that need to constantly valued against the open market.

But if you really want an independent view of the Cub talent, it will be on what other teams are willing to pay for a player.  At present, the most valuable player on the roster is Samardzija, as starting pitching is still a premium in baseball. Samardzija is more "tradable" than Dempster or Garza because a) his performance this year, b) his cost (current contract) and c) control.  The second most tradable Cub commodity would be LHP Maholm, for similar reasons. As for position players, a team may want to shore up their bench with veteran help so a Reed Johnson may be asked about (but the Cubs would get very little in return). The only impact trade of a position player would be Castro.

Would the Cubs trade Castro?  You need to look at the organizational depth chart to see who is in the infield pipeline to see if the risk-reward would be positive. Castro's current back up is Darwin Barney, which is not a potential upgrade. In the minor league system, the Cubs scouts are still positive on Junior Lake (AA) and Baez (A).  But those players would not be ready to take over at short for several years. In order to trade Castro, the Cubs would have to get a major league ready shortstop in return, plus other value.

One last factor to consider: the public relations aspect of a Castro deal. Some fans will moan that the Cubs traded away a foundational player. "Oh no, another Lou Brock trade!" they will yell. In all the recent snafus by the Ricketts clan, negative public relations issues about trading away a star player for prospects may not sell tickets or help ownership's standing in the community.

So a Castro trade would bring the most talent back as the Cubs would be "selling high," but it would also bring a rash of more negative publicity to a club mired in its own PR mistakes.