SPECULATION was that both Dempster and Garza would have been traded last week. But Epstein could not pull the trigger on any deals, even though interest was high on both players.
There may be many factors on why the Cubs are lingering on doing deals.
1. The Cubs may overvalue Dempster and Garza in the market. Teams won't give top ten prospects for a rental player. Teams may only give one high and two low level prospects for Garza.
2. The Cubs are waiting for a team on the fence to get desperate and "over pay" for a Cub player.
3. The Cubs have so many offers that they are in information paralysis mode.
4. Dempster won't waive his no trade.
5. Ownership may be pushing to keep the players in order to sell tickets in August and September.
The problem with waiting to the end is that there may be no buyers at the end.
Dempster had his scoreless streak snapped, so his value went down. Garza has a forearm, well maybe, a triceps injury. So no team is going to trade for a starter with an existing injury. Garza may have no value this week.
Family issues may come into play, too. School is starting soon. Garza is about to become a father. The players don't want to upset family routines.
So it is possible that both Dempster and Garza remain on the Cubs this year. And if so, in order to get a compensation pick for FA Dempster, the Cubs would have to offer him a $12 million offer. And guess what? Dempster could screw up the rebuilding blue print by taking the offer and staying a Cub. Likewise, Garza will make about $12 million in arbitration. So instead of $30 million coming off the books, only $6 million will.
July 23, 2012
July 21, 2012
METHOD OR MADNESS?
Owner Tom Ricketts invested millions in the Dominican Republic in order to create a pipeline of new talent into the organization. He left it to his "baseball people" to run. That means bringing in talent that can make it to the next level. Well, news from MLB this week was that two Cub Dominican camp players were suspended 50 games for failing drug tests. That is not a very good start for Camp Cubs.
Ricketts also said he wanted to instill "a Cubs Way" on how his players will play and present themselves as professionals. Again, he left it to his baseball people to implement a new Cubs way. Well, if character was part of the program, the Cubs latest international prospect signing is puzzling.
Baseball America reports that the Cubs have signed Dominican right-hander Juan Carlos Paniagua to a contract with a $1.5 million signing bonus, which equates to 60% of next year's total international signing bonus. Under the new CBA, this one move hamstrings other international player signings for the next year.
But more troubling is the fact that his is the third time that Paniagua has signed a contract with a Major League team. In 2009, the Diamondbacks contract with him was voided due to the fact that the player presented "fraudulent documentation" including a false name. After a year suspension, the Yankees signed him but that contract which was also voided by major league baseball for fraud.
But more troubling is the fact that his is the third time that Paniagua has signed a contract with a Major League team. In 2009, the Diamondbacks contract with him was voided due to the fact that the player presented "fraudulent documentation" including a false name. After a year suspension, the Yankees signed him but that contract which was also voided by major league baseball for fraud.
Latin American and Caribbean players have a history of strange birth certificates, suspect documentation in order to claim they are younger (and therefore more valuable) than they really are in order to get a deal. Paniagua lists his date of birth as April 4, 1990, the same as he did in his previous two MLB contracts. The question is whether the Cubs contract will also be voided by MLB.
The Cubs stated that they are desperate for pitching so many this is a Hail Mary attempt to find a power pitcher. But at age 22, this "prospect" needs to be as polished as a U.S. Division 1 college senior starter. There are no readily available statistics from the Dominican leagues. But Baseball America reports that Paniagua hasn't shown the same velocity he had when he signed with the Yankees—he sat at 93-95 mph at a May workout. But scouts saw an improved 81-84 mph slider that still graded out behind his changeup. He also throws an occasional curveball, and while he was around the plate in Puerto Rico, his command and pitchability have been issues in the past.
So the Cubs signed a player who had a fraud issues with two other clubs. A player that suddenly bumped up his fastball on the radar gun to go from a $17,000 prospect signee to a $1.1 million bonus star in two years. And now, the Cubs sign him for more money than the Yankees even though his stuff has gone down and "his command and pitch ability have been issues."
We have recently read scouting reports with similar harsh words on a newly signed Cub prospect, Geraldo Concepcion, who was a multimillion dollar signee who is struggling greatly in Class A ball.
The trend for Latin bonus baby pitchers is not good for the Cubs.
So the Cubs signed a player who had a fraud issues with two other clubs. A player that suddenly bumped up his fastball on the radar gun to go from a $17,000 prospect signee to a $1.1 million bonus star in two years. And now, the Cubs sign him for more money than the Yankees even though his stuff has gone down and "his command and pitch ability have been issues."
We have recently read scouting reports with similar harsh words on a newly signed Cub prospect, Geraldo Concepcion, who was a multimillion dollar signee who is struggling greatly in Class A ball.
The trend for Latin bonus baby pitchers is not good for the Cubs.
July 19, 2012
DOUBLE SPEAK
Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune spoke to Cubs President Theo Epstein in regard to the the state of the Cubs. Many of Epstein's statements contradict the mission statement laid out by owner Tom Ricketts when Epstein was hired less than a year ago.
"We're hoping we're very competitive very soon," Epstein said. "Yet wanting it to be so doesn't make it so. You have to build an organization."
Ricketts told fans at the hiring that the Cubs would remain competitive. He said that there would be money to spend on free agents and build a minor league system. Ricketts' promise that the Cubs would remain competitive was necessary in order to preserve the season ticket base and keep fans coming to the ball park.
"In certain deals, it is (pitching)," Epstein said. "You can express a preference for pitching, but if you're dealing with a club that has better position player prospects and you feel the position players in a certain system are a safer bet or offer higher upside, I don't think it's right to pigeonhole yourself to one situation."
It is apparent that Epstein is trying to get young, fast. He wants to trade veterans for young prospects, preferably pitchers. Reports have noted that in trade discussions, the Cubs are looking for under 21 prospects (A ball) which means that it will take years to develop through the system (if you promote them one level per year). Instead of being competitive, the Cubs appear to be big market bottom dwellers for the next three to four years, which would be unacceptable to the fans and ownership.
"As a whole, not specifically regarding potential deals, we need to add a lot of pitching to the system. It's not enough to have a handful or two. You need waves and waves coming through your system, and we don't have that. We hardly have even one wave coming, so we need to rebuild a lot of pitching depth."
It is ironic that this philosophy mirrors Jim Hendry's last five year plan: sign a ton of pitchers and see if any pan out, instead of correctly evaluating talent on an individual basis to get MLB talent at any position. Hendry drafted a lot of college pitchers because he needed to have an army of new arms ready each season. At one point, he had 2/3 of his 40 man roster filled with pitchers. And what happened? The system was without talent at key positions, especially third base, second base and power hitting corner outfield slots. It is so bad that Vitters is the only third base prospect in the organization. And Hoyer is not too keen on him, either. Hendry rolled the dice on over-emphazing pitching and lost. Now Epstein is over-emphasizing pitching (at a riskier lower level of acquiring high school/teens in the last draft and in future trades). And that should be a major worry since he has said the team will not be competitive for years (which is exactly the opposite Ricketts said when he hired Epstein).
"It's a nice way to add talent to an organization without giving up talent," he said of free agent acquisitions. "But you can not make an organization that way. We have a lot of steps ahead of us that we need to take care of before we're in position to add a finishing piece or two through free agency."
However, the Cubs last playoff squad was primarily built through free agent signings. The idea that the sole focus of the Cubs organization now is to sign or trade for young minor league talent only means that the selective rebuild is now a demolition job. To foreclose the thought of signing a free agent because you are rebuilding is a narrow minded, pigeon-holed blindness in the reality of the business.
"We'll always be on every free agent and see if it's the right player or the right value. But if we sat around and drew up a plan and had free agency as the answer to most of our problems, we'd be on a fool's errand there."
The idea that free agency is not the answer to the Cubs problems may relate back to the issue of money. The Cubs are no longer the cash machine that the Tribune owned; attendance is down so revenue is down. Ricketts has begged the city and state for money to rehab Wrigley Field (but at the same time spent tens of millions of dollars on adjacent real estate purchases). One thing is certain: the Cubs payroll will begin to drop quickly starting next year as at least $30 million in contracts come off the books. The Cubs payroll will probably be below $95 million for 2013, which gets the Cubs into middle market levels. For every dollar of payroll saved, another dollar goes to ownership profit. If the Cubs lose 100 games in 2012 and another 100 or so in 2013, there may be a very small fan base left in 2014 when the "new prospects" begin to get ready to make their major league debuts.
But there are troubling signs that "the process" may be more important than promoting talent quickly. The Cubs now have a rule that they want position players to have at least 500 ABs at AAA before being promoted to the major league team. That means a full season in AAA. It seems like an arbitrary wall, and will not solve an injury problem during the season.
In addition, there are stories that the Cubs are primarily focused in on trading Ryan Dempster to the point of not listening or processing other trade requests, like on Matt Garza or even Darwin Barney. If true, that means the decision making process is glacial in the front office. Epstein added another layer of management with his team over the retained Hendry team, but with all those executives you would hope that they could do more than one thing at a time. If not, the Cubs are doomed by seized managerial rust in the gears.
Then there are the reports that the Royals of all teams are interested in acquiring Garza. Many people say that is impossible; the Royals are not buyers. But in some respects, the new CBA and a minor league system that has produced some talent, the Royals --- a small market team that gets the benefits of revenue sharing and competitive balance pick ---- can make a deal for a veteran pitcher to anchor their staff for the next few years at $12 million/per. Garza fits that mold of a Greinke replacement. Garza will get $12 million in arbitration for 2013, and the Royals will offer him $12.5 million tender for 2014 (and if rejects it, the Royals get a first round compensation pick). The Royals can trade their new competitive pick (#1 in sandwich round) to the Cubs with some low level prospects for Garza. It would be like a small market team vulture picking the carcass of a fallen, bloated big city water buffalo but it makes some logical sense. It feeds the Epstein need to amass draft picks and young players. And it also plays well in the Royals scheme: a big name at a reasonable price and a high draft pick if he leaves for free agency in 1.5 years.
It is such a simple deal that there is no reason it should not get done quickly. But then again, Dempster is a free agent, riding a 33 inning scoreless streak. His value is at its peak. Ten teams may be in the mix. So the entire focus of the Epstein brain trust is looking over scouting reports for 10 teams to make prospect lists? One, that should have already been done before trade discussion start, and two, the Cubs brass should already have a blueprint of positions to fill throughout the grids of their entire system roster charts and lists of who is expected to fill those slots (internally or externally).
The Cubs have said that they want to remain competitive, but all signs point to the opposite. The Cubs want to trade their valuable veterans to gain a hoard of young pitching prospects, but it seems like they can't pull the trigger as quickly as say, a Kenny Williams whose trade for Kevin Youkilis has turned out to be the deal of the decade. Maybe the pressure on Epstein is so great that he does not want to make "a mistake," but in every deal there is risk. But to minimize risk, you must have quality information. But the Cubs always speak about the "process." The process is the key to success.
We have come to learn that when people use doublespeak to discuss the importance of "a process," in reality, they are clueless on how to apply facts and experience to a given situation to get the correct result or solve a problem. Politicians are masters of the doublespeak answer. Epstein is trying hard to put a political polish to the rotten apple that is the current state of the Cubs. But the next twelve days will really tell whether Epstein and his crew have the ability to make excellent decisions in the trade market or whether they are all talk.
"We're hoping we're very competitive very soon," Epstein said. "Yet wanting it to be so doesn't make it so. You have to build an organization."
Ricketts told fans at the hiring that the Cubs would remain competitive. He said that there would be money to spend on free agents and build a minor league system. Ricketts' promise that the Cubs would remain competitive was necessary in order to preserve the season ticket base and keep fans coming to the ball park.
"In certain deals, it is (pitching)," Epstein said. "You can express a preference for pitching, but if you're dealing with a club that has better position player prospects and you feel the position players in a certain system are a safer bet or offer higher upside, I don't think it's right to pigeonhole yourself to one situation."
It is apparent that Epstein is trying to get young, fast. He wants to trade veterans for young prospects, preferably pitchers. Reports have noted that in trade discussions, the Cubs are looking for under 21 prospects (A ball) which means that it will take years to develop through the system (if you promote them one level per year). Instead of being competitive, the Cubs appear to be big market bottom dwellers for the next three to four years, which would be unacceptable to the fans and ownership.
"As a whole, not specifically regarding potential deals, we need to add a lot of pitching to the system. It's not enough to have a handful or two. You need waves and waves coming through your system, and we don't have that. We hardly have even one wave coming, so we need to rebuild a lot of pitching depth."
It is ironic that this philosophy mirrors Jim Hendry's last five year plan: sign a ton of pitchers and see if any pan out, instead of correctly evaluating talent on an individual basis to get MLB talent at any position. Hendry drafted a lot of college pitchers because he needed to have an army of new arms ready each season. At one point, he had 2/3 of his 40 man roster filled with pitchers. And what happened? The system was without talent at key positions, especially third base, second base and power hitting corner outfield slots. It is so bad that Vitters is the only third base prospect in the organization. And Hoyer is not too keen on him, either. Hendry rolled the dice on over-emphazing pitching and lost. Now Epstein is over-emphasizing pitching (at a riskier lower level of acquiring high school/teens in the last draft and in future trades). And that should be a major worry since he has said the team will not be competitive for years (which is exactly the opposite Ricketts said when he hired Epstein).
"It's a nice way to add talent to an organization without giving up talent," he said of free agent acquisitions. "But you can not make an organization that way. We have a lot of steps ahead of us that we need to take care of before we're in position to add a finishing piece or two through free agency."
However, the Cubs last playoff squad was primarily built through free agent signings. The idea that the sole focus of the Cubs organization now is to sign or trade for young minor league talent only means that the selective rebuild is now a demolition job. To foreclose the thought of signing a free agent because you are rebuilding is a narrow minded, pigeon-holed blindness in the reality of the business.
"We'll always be on every free agent and see if it's the right player or the right value. But if we sat around and drew up a plan and had free agency as the answer to most of our problems, we'd be on a fool's errand there."
The idea that free agency is not the answer to the Cubs problems may relate back to the issue of money. The Cubs are no longer the cash machine that the Tribune owned; attendance is down so revenue is down. Ricketts has begged the city and state for money to rehab Wrigley Field (but at the same time spent tens of millions of dollars on adjacent real estate purchases). One thing is certain: the Cubs payroll will begin to drop quickly starting next year as at least $30 million in contracts come off the books. The Cubs payroll will probably be below $95 million for 2013, which gets the Cubs into middle market levels. For every dollar of payroll saved, another dollar goes to ownership profit. If the Cubs lose 100 games in 2012 and another 100 or so in 2013, there may be a very small fan base left in 2014 when the "new prospects" begin to get ready to make their major league debuts.
But there are troubling signs that "the process" may be more important than promoting talent quickly. The Cubs now have a rule that they want position players to have at least 500 ABs at AAA before being promoted to the major league team. That means a full season in AAA. It seems like an arbitrary wall, and will not solve an injury problem during the season.
In addition, there are stories that the Cubs are primarily focused in on trading Ryan Dempster to the point of not listening or processing other trade requests, like on Matt Garza or even Darwin Barney. If true, that means the decision making process is glacial in the front office. Epstein added another layer of management with his team over the retained Hendry team, but with all those executives you would hope that they could do more than one thing at a time. If not, the Cubs are doomed by seized managerial rust in the gears.
Then there are the reports that the Royals of all teams are interested in acquiring Garza. Many people say that is impossible; the Royals are not buyers. But in some respects, the new CBA and a minor league system that has produced some talent, the Royals --- a small market team that gets the benefits of revenue sharing and competitive balance pick ---- can make a deal for a veteran pitcher to anchor their staff for the next few years at $12 million/per. Garza fits that mold of a Greinke replacement. Garza will get $12 million in arbitration for 2013, and the Royals will offer him $12.5 million tender for 2014 (and if rejects it, the Royals get a first round compensation pick). The Royals can trade their new competitive pick (#1 in sandwich round) to the Cubs with some low level prospects for Garza. It would be like a small market team vulture picking the carcass of a fallen, bloated big city water buffalo but it makes some logical sense. It feeds the Epstein need to amass draft picks and young players. And it also plays well in the Royals scheme: a big name at a reasonable price and a high draft pick if he leaves for free agency in 1.5 years.
It is such a simple deal that there is no reason it should not get done quickly. But then again, Dempster is a free agent, riding a 33 inning scoreless streak. His value is at its peak. Ten teams may be in the mix. So the entire focus of the Epstein brain trust is looking over scouting reports for 10 teams to make prospect lists? One, that should have already been done before trade discussion start, and two, the Cubs brass should already have a blueprint of positions to fill throughout the grids of their entire system roster charts and lists of who is expected to fill those slots (internally or externally).
The Cubs have said that they want to remain competitive, but all signs point to the opposite. The Cubs want to trade their valuable veterans to gain a hoard of young pitching prospects, but it seems like they can't pull the trigger as quickly as say, a Kenny Williams whose trade for Kevin Youkilis has turned out to be the deal of the decade. Maybe the pressure on Epstein is so great that he does not want to make "a mistake," but in every deal there is risk. But to minimize risk, you must have quality information. But the Cubs always speak about the "process." The process is the key to success.
We have come to learn that when people use doublespeak to discuss the importance of "a process," in reality, they are clueless on how to apply facts and experience to a given situation to get the correct result or solve a problem. Politicians are masters of the doublespeak answer. Epstein is trying hard to put a political polish to the rotten apple that is the current state of the Cubs. But the next twelve days will really tell whether Epstein and his crew have the ability to make excellent decisions in the trade market or whether they are all talk.
July 18, 2012
THE REPLACEMENTS
If the Cubs really blow up their veteran roster at the flea market trade deadline, we hate to rain on that parade but the Midwest does need it . . . . how does the rest of the seasonal roster fare in a talent drought?
1. DEMPSTER trade. He would most likely be replaced in the rotation by Volstad (yuck).
2. GARZA trade. He would most likely have to be replaced by a rookie pitcher coming back in the trade or by a recalled Randy Wells (ho hum).
3. BARNEY trade (to the Tigers). Barney would be replaced by Cardenas, which is a move to determine if Cardenas can be a full time player.
4. SOTO trade (unlikely). It would create a Clevenger-Castillo platoon.
5. DEJESUS trade (unlikely). He would be replaced by Sveum favorite Reed Johnson.
6. REED JOHNSON trade (possible to a contender trying to upgrade bench). He would be replaced by Campana, in another move to determine if he can be a full time player until Brett Jackson gets his artificially imposed 500 AAA at-bats for a call-up.
7. SORIANO trade (impossible). Soriano will remain the Cubs LF for the duration of his contract, until he is replaced in the future by Almora or Soler.
8. LaHAIR trade (no interest). Unless LaHair is tossed into a trade to get better prospects, he will remain the old rookie for the remainder of the season. If he is traded, most likely replaced by Sappelt in a minor league call up or by Baker.
9. MARMOL trade (highly unlikely). If he is gone, then Russell would be leading a closer-by-committee situation with Camp and Corpas.
10. CASTRO trade (super unlikely). Castro has been named a foundational piece along with Rizzo as part of the Cubs long term plans. He may only be replaced at short when Baez is ready in a couple of years.
1. DEMPSTER trade. He would most likely be replaced in the rotation by Volstad (yuck).
2. GARZA trade. He would most likely have to be replaced by a rookie pitcher coming back in the trade or by a recalled Randy Wells (ho hum).
3. BARNEY trade (to the Tigers). Barney would be replaced by Cardenas, which is a move to determine if Cardenas can be a full time player.
4. SOTO trade (unlikely). It would create a Clevenger-Castillo platoon.
5. DEJESUS trade (unlikely). He would be replaced by Sveum favorite Reed Johnson.
6. REED JOHNSON trade (possible to a contender trying to upgrade bench). He would be replaced by Campana, in another move to determine if he can be a full time player until Brett Jackson gets his artificially imposed 500 AAA at-bats for a call-up.
7. SORIANO trade (impossible). Soriano will remain the Cubs LF for the duration of his contract, until he is replaced in the future by Almora or Soler.
8. LaHAIR trade (no interest). Unless LaHair is tossed into a trade to get better prospects, he will remain the old rookie for the remainder of the season. If he is traded, most likely replaced by Sappelt in a minor league call up or by Baker.
9. MARMOL trade (highly unlikely). If he is gone, then Russell would be leading a closer-by-committee situation with Camp and Corpas.
10. CASTRO trade (super unlikely). Castro has been named a foundational piece along with Rizzo as part of the Cubs long term plans. He may only be replaced at short when Baez is ready in a couple of years.
ANOTHER DRAFT?
Maybe this is the plug that has kept the trading season from taking off full tilt.
MLBTR and MLB.com report that the league is going to conduct its new Competitive Balance Lottery today. Under the new CBA, in theory, small-market and low-revenue teams will have the chance to win extra selections in next year’s amateur draft. The ten smallest-market teams and ten lowest-revenue teams will have the chance to win extra selections in 2013.
How these extra draft picks are determined is confusing. Some small-market teams are low-revenue teams, but there are a few small market teams with high payrolls. Reports state that there are 13 clubs involved in the first-round lottery: the Diamondbacks, Orioles, Indians, Royals, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Marlins, Brewers and Cardinals.
How the Cardinals need "competitive" help is somewhat baffling; and the Pirates are in first place in the NL Central. And the Tigers are a deep pocket team on par with the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox in payroll flexibility.
The first six selections will be made between the first and second rounds of next year’s draft. A second group of six picks will be available to the teams from the first group that didn’t get an early pick, plus the Tigers.
The second group of selections will be made after the second round of the draft.
But here is the key element of this new system: MLB teams can trade the draft picks they obtain in the Competitive Balance Lottery. The picks, which can only be traded once, cannot be sold or traded during the offseason. In theory, the draft picks could be involved in some of this summer’s deadline deals.
So, a team not a party to the Lottery draft wants to get extra draft picks (i.e. the Cubs management would LOVE to add more draft picks as part of their rebuilding process), that means the big market and large revenue teams will pay and trade to get one or more of these high value draft slots.
July 16, 2012
STREAKS
Poor Dale Sveum. He was put in a position at the beginning of the season to babysit a bad team through the start of a long, tenuous rebuilding process. He was given below average talent and dead money contract veterans and quickly the team sank to the bottom of the standings. No pressure from new Cub management, because even really bad losing gives them a number one or two draft pick next year.
But now, the Cubs have won 12 of their last 16 games. Ryan Dempster, the trade gem of trade bait for the last three weeks, has a 33 IP scoreless streak. His trade value is at an all time high. It was speculated that he won't last the week in a Cub uniform. He just needs to agree to be traded to a team who may given him an extension, like the Dodgers.
You also have other players coming around. Soriano came back from the break with 2 HRs, and Barney started hitting while announcers began touting his exceptional fielding percentage at second base (possibly to bolster the rumors that the Tigers need a second baseman for the second half push).
But a real dynamic at work here is that some players may have finally realized that they are playing for a job for this year and next. Players on last place teams are more likely to be tossed aside like the weekly trash if management believes it has found someone even potentially better. When a player is feeling the pressure that he is playing for a contract next year (that includes Dempster), a human survival dynamic kicks in; more concentration. Better command and control. It brings confidence.
Good performance streaks have a habit of being contagious. Like the stellar 3-6-1 game ending double play by the Cubs in the Diamondbacks series: a month ago, that play would have probably led to a wild throw or two and a big inning by the opponent.
So Sveum does not want management to break up his team now that they are winning. But the irony is that the management can leverage the better play for better prospects in trade negotiations. So Sveum should just be content to ride out the over-performing current Cubs until the trade deadline.
But now, the Cubs have won 12 of their last 16 games. Ryan Dempster, the trade gem of trade bait for the last three weeks, has a 33 IP scoreless streak. His trade value is at an all time high. It was speculated that he won't last the week in a Cub uniform. He just needs to agree to be traded to a team who may given him an extension, like the Dodgers.
You also have other players coming around. Soriano came back from the break with 2 HRs, and Barney started hitting while announcers began touting his exceptional fielding percentage at second base (possibly to bolster the rumors that the Tigers need a second baseman for the second half push).
But a real dynamic at work here is that some players may have finally realized that they are playing for a job for this year and next. Players on last place teams are more likely to be tossed aside like the weekly trash if management believes it has found someone even potentially better. When a player is feeling the pressure that he is playing for a contract next year (that includes Dempster), a human survival dynamic kicks in; more concentration. Better command and control. It brings confidence.
Good performance streaks have a habit of being contagious. Like the stellar 3-6-1 game ending double play by the Cubs in the Diamondbacks series: a month ago, that play would have probably led to a wild throw or two and a big inning by the opponent.
So Sveum does not want management to break up his team now that they are winning. But the irony is that the management can leverage the better play for better prospects in trade negotiations. So Sveum should just be content to ride out the over-performing current Cubs until the trade deadline.
July 13, 2012
THREE SHEETS TO THE WIND
The Braves will start former Brewer Ben Sheets tonight. Sheets has not pitched since 2010. He blew out an elbow and had to have surgery. He is another one of those comeback rehabilitation projects many general managers are fond of experimenting with during a season. Sheets has been on the disabled list seven times in his career.
But the Braves rotation has been hit with injuries and inconsistency. So the idea of bringing in a veteran pitcher makes some sense. But the trend is trying a re-tread first; it costs less money than trading prospects for an established veteran pitcher.
Teams are guarding the hen house (minor league prospects) closely. The Tampa and Florida model of promoting your minor leagues quickly is becoming standard operating procedure throughout baseball. Teams are also guarding their piggy banks, as the economy is not as robust as economists and bureaucrats claim it to be in this election year. Adding a quality veteran starter will cost you a big bump in payroll and probably two of your top ten system prospects. Many owners and general managers would rather wait out their pitching storm with a comeback player or a rookie than gambling on a trade.
There may be many players available at the July 31 trade deadline. But the market for Buyers seems to be more tepid than previously thought. The Dodgers have been talking to the Cubs for weeks on Dempster and Garza, but no deal is close. The Cubs have no use in not trading their veteran talent, but it appears teams like the Dodgers, who have a several quality minor league pitching prospects, are not willing to give up too much "just to make a deal."
Whether Sheets is ready or able to contribute to the Braves playoff run is to be seen. But the prospect of Sheets being a contributor after a long lay-off is less than 50-50.
But the Braves rotation has been hit with injuries and inconsistency. So the idea of bringing in a veteran pitcher makes some sense. But the trend is trying a re-tread first; it costs less money than trading prospects for an established veteran pitcher.
Teams are guarding the hen house (minor league prospects) closely. The Tampa and Florida model of promoting your minor leagues quickly is becoming standard operating procedure throughout baseball. Teams are also guarding their piggy banks, as the economy is not as robust as economists and bureaucrats claim it to be in this election year. Adding a quality veteran starter will cost you a big bump in payroll and probably two of your top ten system prospects. Many owners and general managers would rather wait out their pitching storm with a comeback player or a rookie than gambling on a trade.
There may be many players available at the July 31 trade deadline. But the market for Buyers seems to be more tepid than previously thought. The Dodgers have been talking to the Cubs for weeks on Dempster and Garza, but no deal is close. The Cubs have no use in not trading their veteran talent, but it appears teams like the Dodgers, who have a several quality minor league pitching prospects, are not willing to give up too much "just to make a deal."
Whether Sheets is ready or able to contribute to the Braves playoff run is to be seen. But the prospect of Sheets being a contributor after a long lay-off is less than 50-50.
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