It looks like an old fashioned, Old West Wild Card Duel.
Jake Arrieta against Gerrit Cole on October 7, 2015 in the wild card game.
Arrieta has faced the Pirates 5 times this season. His record is 3-1.
Over 36 IP, he has allowd 18 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 33 K for a 0.722 WHIP.
Cole has faced the Cubs 4 times this season. His record is 2-1.
Over 25.1 IP, Cole has allowed 20 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 32 for a 0.947 WHIP.
Arrieta has an ERA against the Pirates of 0.75.
Cole has an ERA against the Cubs of 2.13 ERA.
Arrieta has walked more Pirates per game than Cole.
Cole has more strikeouts per game than Arrieta.
But based on the metrics, Arrieta seems to have an advantage in the Wild Card game over Cole.
But there are variables in play. Arrieta has been getting better as the season has progressed. The home plate umpire and the unpredictable strike zone can either help or hurt the pitcher. And it may come down to defense. Depending on Maddon's choices, Pirates would have an advantage in defensive WAR.
The Cubs-Pirates Wild Card game clearly is going to be a low scoring, old school pitcher's duel.
September 28, 2015
September 26, 2015
WILD CARD ROSTER
Any player on the team's 40 man Reserve List (or on designated disabled list) is eligible for post-season play if he was on the 40 man roster prior to midnight on August 31. Clubs have already submitted to the league office their playoff player lists.
This is important because a couple of Maddon's late September go-to guys like reliever Trevor Cahill are not currently eligible. Cahill would only be on a playoff roster if there is an injury to a player eligible for the playoffs.
So it stands that the critical wild card game will come down to 15 players selected from this list:
PITCHERS: 21
Jake Arrieta
Dallas Beeler
Carl Edwards Jr
Justin Grimm
Jason Hammel
Dan Haren
Kyle Hendricks
Tommy Hunter
* Eric Jokisch
* Jon Lester
Yoervis Medina
Jason Motte
Neil Ramirez
* Clayton Richard
Fernando Rodney
Hector Rondon
* Zac Rosscup
Pedro Strop
Jacob Turner
* Tsuyoshi Wada
* Travis Wood
>>>>> For the Wild Card game, the Cubs only need to activate ONE starter, either Arrieta or Lester. Most people believe Arrieta will get the call, leaving Lester to throw Game 1 in the divisional series.
The rest of the roster would be made up of 10 bullpen arms and 14 position players.
The bullpen arms would be: Grimm, Ramirez, Motte, Richard, Strop, Wada, Wood, Rondon, Hunter and Rodney.
CATCHERS: 3
* Miguel Montero
David Ross
* Kyle Schwarber
>>>>> All three catchers make the wild card game roster.
INFIELDERS: 9
# Arismendy Alcantara
Javy Baez
Kris Bryant
Starlin Castro
# Jonathan Herrera
* Tommy LaStella
* Anthony Rizzo
Addison Russell
Christian Villanueva
>>>>> Infield starters will be Bryant, Russell, Castro and Rizzo.
The bench infielders would be Baez and LaStella.
OUTFIELDERS: 7
* Quintin Berry
* Chris Coghlan
Chris Denorfia
# Dexter Fowler
Austin Jackson
Jorge Soler
Matt Szczur
>>>>> This leaves 5 outfield spots.
Schwarber may start in LF against Cole so the other two will probably be Fowler and Soler.
The bench OF slots would be Coghlan, Denorfia, Jackson and Szczur.
This is important because a couple of Maddon's late September go-to guys like reliever Trevor Cahill are not currently eligible. Cahill would only be on a playoff roster if there is an injury to a player eligible for the playoffs.
So it stands that the critical wild card game will come down to 15 players selected from this list:
PITCHERS: 21
Jake Arrieta
Dallas Beeler
Carl Edwards Jr
Justin Grimm
Jason Hammel
Dan Haren
Kyle Hendricks
Tommy Hunter
* Eric Jokisch
* Jon Lester
Yoervis Medina
Jason Motte
Neil Ramirez
* Clayton Richard
Fernando Rodney
Hector Rondon
* Zac Rosscup
Pedro Strop
Jacob Turner
* Tsuyoshi Wada
* Travis Wood
>>>>> For the Wild Card game, the Cubs only need to activate ONE starter, either Arrieta or Lester. Most people believe Arrieta will get the call, leaving Lester to throw Game 1 in the divisional series.
The rest of the roster would be made up of 10 bullpen arms and 14 position players.
The bullpen arms would be: Grimm, Ramirez, Motte, Richard, Strop, Wada, Wood, Rondon, Hunter and Rodney.
CATCHERS: 3
* Miguel Montero
David Ross
* Kyle Schwarber
>>>>> All three catchers make the wild card game roster.
INFIELDERS: 9
# Arismendy Alcantara
Javy Baez
Kris Bryant
Starlin Castro
# Jonathan Herrera
* Tommy LaStella
* Anthony Rizzo
Addison Russell
Christian Villanueva
>>>>> Infield starters will be Bryant, Russell, Castro and Rizzo.
The bench infielders would be Baez and LaStella.
OUTFIELDERS: 7
* Quintin Berry
* Chris Coghlan
Chris Denorfia
# Dexter Fowler
Austin Jackson
Jorge Soler
Matt Szczur
>>>>> This leaves 5 outfield spots.
Schwarber may start in LF against Cole so the other two will probably be Fowler and Soler.
The bench OF slots would be Coghlan, Denorfia, Jackson and Szczur.
September 24, 2015
DOMINATING
After Jake Arrieta's complete game, 20th win, I thought of the last dominating Cubs pitcher in a playoff push. Rick Sutcliffe.
Sutcliffe came in a mid season trade with Cleveland.
For the Cubs in 1984, he went 16-1, 2.69 ERA, 1.078 WHIP and 3.9 WAR.
In the playoffs, he went 1-1, 3.38 ERA in 13.1 IP for 1.1275 WHIP.
The Cubs only used 8 pitchers in the Padre series. Sutcliffe won Game 1 of the series,
and was tagged with the Game 5 loss.
This year, Arrieta is 20-6, 1.88 ERA, 0.902 WHIP and 8.0 WAR (MVP caliber ranking).
Arrieta has dominated hitters with his unbelievable command. His WHIP is 44% better than the league average 1.30. As I watched him mow down the Brewers, I saw a very small trait which shows why he is so good this season. Arrieta's delivery is across his body, something that pitching coaches abhor because it leads to arm and shoulder issues. Pitching coaches teach a straight line delivery toward the plate. Arrieta has a quiet compensation that works for him. As he does a slight rocking motion on the rubber, he clears his left hip slightly which lessens the arm angle across his chest.
The hip rotation, like in a golf swing, generates more power.
This simple technique is very repeatable and works for all four of his pitches. With the same release point with command of four plus pitches, Arrieta has become one of the best pitchers in the majors.
The Cubs, 89-62 after Arrieta's win, are 15 games above my preseason prediction. Little did we know that the front office would promote the new young core of Russell, Schwarber and Baez to the majors this season. Arrieta is a big part of the surprising win total. In 2014, he only had 10 wins. He has already doubled that total this year.
Whether Arrieta is an MVP candidate will be philosophically debated by the sports writers. But clearly, Arrieta's presence on the mound has helped create a winning atmosphere in the Cubs locker room. He is the Cubs' MVP.
Sutcliffe came in a mid season trade with Cleveland.
For the Cubs in 1984, he went 16-1, 2.69 ERA, 1.078 WHIP and 3.9 WAR.
In the playoffs, he went 1-1, 3.38 ERA in 13.1 IP for 1.1275 WHIP.
The Cubs only used 8 pitchers in the Padre series. Sutcliffe won Game 1 of the series,
and was tagged with the Game 5 loss.
This year, Arrieta is 20-6, 1.88 ERA, 0.902 WHIP and 8.0 WAR (MVP caliber ranking).
Arrieta has dominated hitters with his unbelievable command. His WHIP is 44% better than the league average 1.30. As I watched him mow down the Brewers, I saw a very small trait which shows why he is so good this season. Arrieta's delivery is across his body, something that pitching coaches abhor because it leads to arm and shoulder issues. Pitching coaches teach a straight line delivery toward the plate. Arrieta has a quiet compensation that works for him. As he does a slight rocking motion on the rubber, he clears his left hip slightly which lessens the arm angle across his chest.
The hip rotation, like in a golf swing, generates more power.
This simple technique is very repeatable and works for all four of his pitches. With the same release point with command of four plus pitches, Arrieta has become one of the best pitchers in the majors.
The Cubs, 89-62 after Arrieta's win, are 15 games above my preseason prediction. Little did we know that the front office would promote the new young core of Russell, Schwarber and Baez to the majors this season. Arrieta is a big part of the surprising win total. In 2014, he only had 10 wins. He has already doubled that total this year.
Whether Arrieta is an MVP candidate will be philosophically debated by the sports writers. But clearly, Arrieta's presence on the mound has helped create a winning atmosphere in the Cubs locker room. He is the Cubs' MVP.
September 23, 2015
THE PRICE TO PAY
From the NY Post:
TORONTO – David Price remind you of anyone?
A lefty who combines the qualities of both a workhorse and an ace. A guy with a Cy Young in the bank. A No. 1 starter traded during his walk year, excelling for a franchise (the Blue Jays) that has not been to the postseason in ages (since 1993).
He is pretty much the closest thing to CC Sabathia since Sabathia, a lefty workhorse ace who had won a Cy Young when he was traded in his walk year (2008) to a Brewers team he spearheaded to its first playoff berth since 1982.
The Yankees essentially planned for 12 months to move heaven, earth and ultimately $161 million to assure they signed Sabathia, and now Sabathia looms as a major reason why the Yankees will probably not even be in play for Price this offseason.
No matter what has happened the past few years, I believe Sabathia was a superb signing — and ultimately re-signing — for the Yankees. He was the ace on a champion (2009), a terrific competitor and a clubhouse stabilizer.
But he is part of an older, expensive group (with Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, in particular) that has spooked even the usually aggressive factions of the Yankees hierarchy about lavish long-term contracts – particularly for pitchers in their 30s with big workloads. Price turned 30 in August and has thrown the fourth-most innings in the majors since 2010.
Price’s brilliance with the Blue Jays has done much to assure he gets at least the seven-year, $210 million pact Max Scherzer received last offseason. The Blue Jays have never given a free-agent contract of more than five years, and no one expects incoming team president Mark Shapiro – with his conservative background in Cleveland – to alter that, though the groundswell to keep Price in Toronto will be similar to the clamor for Yoenis Cespedes in Queens.
>>>> The article makes some valid points, which all teams, including the Cubs, should take into consideration during the winter free agent market.
The Cubs already banked $155 million on an "ace," Jon Lester, who has been good but not as good as Jake Arrieta. Price is expected to get at least $210 million. It is hard to imagine that the Cubs "business" people will want to tie up $365 million on two pitchers in their 30s.
Jerry Reinsdorf always put his foot down on any long term pitching contract. He feared pitchers broke down more than hitters; and that even without injury, pitchers sometimes lose their stuff. But agents and the market frenzy has driven up contact years from 3 or 4 to 7 to 10. The back end of the contracts seem to have a tendency to be "dead money" that hampers teams from making moves in the future.
The Yankees were the poster child for big spending, high profile free agent signings. But things started to change when the team did not re-sign their own guy, Robinson Cano. The front office has started to believe in taking compensation and regular draft picks to shore up their long term roster holes. Sabathia's deal is haunting them to play it more conservatively with free agents.
Whether other teams have "buyer's remorse" over past free agent deals is another question. If a GM can convince an owner that the team is one player away from a title, then it is possible to green light potential dead money deal.
TORONTO – David Price remind you of anyone?
A lefty who combines the qualities of both a workhorse and an ace. A guy with a Cy Young in the bank. A No. 1 starter traded during his walk year, excelling for a franchise (the Blue Jays) that has not been to the postseason in ages (since 1993).
He is pretty much the closest thing to CC Sabathia since Sabathia, a lefty workhorse ace who had won a Cy Young when he was traded in his walk year (2008) to a Brewers team he spearheaded to its first playoff berth since 1982.
The Yankees essentially planned for 12 months to move heaven, earth and ultimately $161 million to assure they signed Sabathia, and now Sabathia looms as a major reason why the Yankees will probably not even be in play for Price this offseason.
No matter what has happened the past few years, I believe Sabathia was a superb signing — and ultimately re-signing — for the Yankees. He was the ace on a champion (2009), a terrific competitor and a clubhouse stabilizer.
But he is part of an older, expensive group (with Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, in particular) that has spooked even the usually aggressive factions of the Yankees hierarchy about lavish long-term contracts – particularly for pitchers in their 30s with big workloads. Price turned 30 in August and has thrown the fourth-most innings in the majors since 2010.
Price’s brilliance with the Blue Jays has done much to assure he gets at least the seven-year, $210 million pact Max Scherzer received last offseason. The Blue Jays have never given a free-agent contract of more than five years, and no one expects incoming team president Mark Shapiro – with his conservative background in Cleveland – to alter that, though the groundswell to keep Price in Toronto will be similar to the clamor for Yoenis Cespedes in Queens.
>>>> The article makes some valid points, which all teams, including the Cubs, should take into consideration during the winter free agent market.
The Cubs already banked $155 million on an "ace," Jon Lester, who has been good but not as good as Jake Arrieta. Price is expected to get at least $210 million. It is hard to imagine that the Cubs "business" people will want to tie up $365 million on two pitchers in their 30s.
Jerry Reinsdorf always put his foot down on any long term pitching contract. He feared pitchers broke down more than hitters; and that even without injury, pitchers sometimes lose their stuff. But agents and the market frenzy has driven up contact years from 3 or 4 to 7 to 10. The back end of the contracts seem to have a tendency to be "dead money" that hampers teams from making moves in the future.
The Yankees were the poster child for big spending, high profile free agent signings. But things started to change when the team did not re-sign their own guy, Robinson Cano. The front office has started to believe in taking compensation and regular draft picks to shore up their long term roster holes. Sabathia's deal is haunting them to play it more conservatively with free agents.
Whether other teams have "buyer's remorse" over past free agent deals is another question. If a GM can convince an owner that the team is one player away from a title, then it is possible to green light potential dead money deal.
September 22, 2015
PRIORITIES
Every person has priorities in life.
Some have the pursuit of happiness. Some have the pursuit of a meaningful career. Some have the pursuit of a meaningful community service or legacy. Some have the pursuit of money.
The Cubs had three errors last night, including one that was charged to Starlin Castro at second base. But Cubs manager Joe Maddon did not hold Castro liable, saying a ball hit by Adam Lind took "a bad hop."
Maddon blamed Wrigley Field conditions on a recent rock concert held at the venue. "Since the AC/DC concert, (field conditions) have been trouble. I don't know if they were out there taking infield before the game. But it totally messed up our infield."
And this is a valid point for the critics of Tom Ricketts plan to turn Wrigley Field into a year round, multipurpose entertainment venue. Wrigley Field was built as a baseball park. It withstood the onslaught of multipurpose, concrete mushroom municipal stadiums that took over professional sports. It was a historical icon for the fading American past time.
But one error in the infield could cost the Cubs a victory. And one victory could cost the Cubs a season (especially in a one game, winner-take-all wild card.)
But it is clear with all the "renovations" and "modernization" of Wrigley Field and the surrounding properties, the Cubs are not a priority to the Ricketts family. The Cubs are merely another tenant, or show, at the property. Rock concerts and that revenue stream is just as important as the baseball crowds. And with the plan to add football and other fall sports inside Wrigley, one can foresee Wrigley Field becoming the second coming of the bad Soldier Field turf complex.
And don't be fooled by the myth that the extra revenue is going into the Cubs treasury to build a winning team. The other Wrigley revenue streams are going into the other Ricketts family business ventures.
Long time fans are worried that this Maddon magical season has not had its "Cubbie occurrence" yet. It would be ironic that a torn up infield due to a rock concert could cost the Cubs a post season game and the rare chance for a pennant run.
Some have the pursuit of happiness. Some have the pursuit of a meaningful career. Some have the pursuit of a meaningful community service or legacy. Some have the pursuit of money.
The Cubs had three errors last night, including one that was charged to Starlin Castro at second base. But Cubs manager Joe Maddon did not hold Castro liable, saying a ball hit by Adam Lind took "a bad hop."
Maddon blamed Wrigley Field conditions on a recent rock concert held at the venue. "Since the AC/DC concert, (field conditions) have been trouble. I don't know if they were out there taking infield before the game. But it totally messed up our infield."
And this is a valid point for the critics of Tom Ricketts plan to turn Wrigley Field into a year round, multipurpose entertainment venue. Wrigley Field was built as a baseball park. It withstood the onslaught of multipurpose, concrete mushroom municipal stadiums that took over professional sports. It was a historical icon for the fading American past time.
But one error in the infield could cost the Cubs a victory. And one victory could cost the Cubs a season (especially in a one game, winner-take-all wild card.)
But it is clear with all the "renovations" and "modernization" of Wrigley Field and the surrounding properties, the Cubs are not a priority to the Ricketts family. The Cubs are merely another tenant, or show, at the property. Rock concerts and that revenue stream is just as important as the baseball crowds. And with the plan to add football and other fall sports inside Wrigley, one can foresee Wrigley Field becoming the second coming of the bad Soldier Field turf complex.
And don't be fooled by the myth that the extra revenue is going into the Cubs treasury to build a winning team. The other Wrigley revenue streams are going into the other Ricketts family business ventures.
Long time fans are worried that this Maddon magical season has not had its "Cubbie occurrence" yet. It would be ironic that a torn up infield due to a rock concert could cost the Cubs a post season game and the rare chance for a pennant run.
September 21, 2015
SUNDAY GAME
I put the Sunday loss to the Cardinals on the coaches.
With only one out, sending Rizzo to the plate on a short hit to RF where Heyward came up throwing a strike to Molina at the plate, killed the Cub rally. The Cardinals pitching was on the ropes with control issues. But Maddon said he thought it was the right send because it would have taken a couple more hits to score.
The Cubs have had enough plate discipline to take walks and move the batting order deep into innings. The comeback was quashed with the play at the plate. (Molina was hurt and will have an MRI on his thumb. This may be a blessing for the Cardinals, because some fans think Cruz is now a better catcher-hitter than Molina.)
Still, winning 2 out of 3 in a bean ball, hotly contested series with the divisional leader was a good one for the Cubs. Maddon said afterward that his team now believes that it is as good as St. Louis. This had the feel of playoff baseball.
Ironically, the Cubs and Cardinals have never played against each other in a post season game.
This year seems to heading toward a possible show down if the Cubs can beat the Pirates in the wild card game.
It seemed that 99% of the world believes that Arrieta will start the Pittsburgh game. I thought that too, even after Lester got pushed around early in yesterday's contest. But if Arrieta wins the wild card game, he is lost until Game 3 of the Cardinal NLDS.
If the Cubs paid Lester $155 million for his post-season experience, Lester should be the one to throw the wild card game (on a short leash). That means Arrieta could start in three NLDS games, if necessary (as this year's Giant ace Bumgartner did last year).
The playoff pitching assignments will be the most telling thing Maddon will do all year. And the ramification of the decision will be discussed for decades.
With only one out, sending Rizzo to the plate on a short hit to RF where Heyward came up throwing a strike to Molina at the plate, killed the Cub rally. The Cardinals pitching was on the ropes with control issues. But Maddon said he thought it was the right send because it would have taken a couple more hits to score.
The Cubs have had enough plate discipline to take walks and move the batting order deep into innings. The comeback was quashed with the play at the plate. (Molina was hurt and will have an MRI on his thumb. This may be a blessing for the Cardinals, because some fans think Cruz is now a better catcher-hitter than Molina.)
Still, winning 2 out of 3 in a bean ball, hotly contested series with the divisional leader was a good one for the Cubs. Maddon said afterward that his team now believes that it is as good as St. Louis. This had the feel of playoff baseball.
Ironically, the Cubs and Cardinals have never played against each other in a post season game.
This year seems to heading toward a possible show down if the Cubs can beat the Pirates in the wild card game.
It seemed that 99% of the world believes that Arrieta will start the Pittsburgh game. I thought that too, even after Lester got pushed around early in yesterday's contest. But if Arrieta wins the wild card game, he is lost until Game 3 of the Cardinal NLDS.
If the Cubs paid Lester $155 million for his post-season experience, Lester should be the one to throw the wild card game (on a short leash). That means Arrieta could start in three NLDS games, if necessary (as this year's Giant ace Bumgartner did last year).
The playoff pitching assignments will be the most telling thing Maddon will do all year. And the ramification of the decision will be discussed for decades.
September 16, 2015
BETTING ON YOURSELF
Jeff Samardzija bet on himself this year. He desperately wanted to get into the free agent market at the end of the season to capture one big money contract. He allegedly turned down an $85 million offer from the Cubs. Then the Cubs traded him to Oakland in a package that landed Addison Russell.
The White Sox traded for Samardzija in the hopes that he would be the right handed #2 starter on a team built to win this year. Both notions have failed terribly.
Samardzija, 30, has made 30 starts this season. He is 9-13, 5.27 ERA, 1.354 WHIP and negative 0.6 WAR.
By our estimation, Samardzija has cost himself at least $49 million. He was looking for ace money ($22 million/year) but he will not be in the class of a Greinke or Price. A #2 starter who is young may command $15 million/year. A very good veteran #3 starter may get around $12 million.
In fact, Samardzija has the current track record to be classified more as a #4 starter than a #2. We estimate the Shark may be fielding offers of 3 years/$36 million this off-season based on this year's performance.
But that may be even high. Jason Hammel, the Cubs #3 starter (who has had his recent troubles) is 8-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.149 WHIP and 1.8 WAR. Hammel, 33, will be making $9 million in 2016.
Joe Maddon has been betting on his own magic to lead the Cubs to the playoffs. But he is getting caught up in his player moves on the field which leads to Dusty Baker like bullpen decisions. Maddon seems to have decided to ride Grimm, Strop and Rondon through September even though he has many more arms in the pen when a starter falters. Why he did not start Richards or Wada for the "bullpen" game is debatable; but now in the heat of the wild card race, he is not using Hunter, Edwards, Wada, Ramirez, or Medina hardly at all.
Maddon may not trust most of his bullpen arms, but in September you have to or things will unravel. The Cubs are really down to a two man rotation, Arrieta and Lester. Hammel Hendricks, and Haren are struggling to get through 5 innings a start. You need fresh arms to eat up innings to get to Rondon in the 9th.
He has gotten his position players to buy in to the platoon, "match up" situations even though Schwarber should be playing more since his bat is the most consistent weapon at the top of the line up. Maddon has more pieces to add late in a game for defensive purposes (Baez, LaStella, Jackson). He needs to put as much attention into making the bullpen as strong as his bench.
The White Sox traded for Samardzija in the hopes that he would be the right handed #2 starter on a team built to win this year. Both notions have failed terribly.
Samardzija, 30, has made 30 starts this season. He is 9-13, 5.27 ERA, 1.354 WHIP and negative 0.6 WAR.
By our estimation, Samardzija has cost himself at least $49 million. He was looking for ace money ($22 million/year) but he will not be in the class of a Greinke or Price. A #2 starter who is young may command $15 million/year. A very good veteran #3 starter may get around $12 million.
In fact, Samardzija has the current track record to be classified more as a #4 starter than a #2. We estimate the Shark may be fielding offers of 3 years/$36 million this off-season based on this year's performance.
But that may be even high. Jason Hammel, the Cubs #3 starter (who has had his recent troubles) is 8-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.149 WHIP and 1.8 WAR. Hammel, 33, will be making $9 million in 2016.
Joe Maddon has been betting on his own magic to lead the Cubs to the playoffs. But he is getting caught up in his player moves on the field which leads to Dusty Baker like bullpen decisions. Maddon seems to have decided to ride Grimm, Strop and Rondon through September even though he has many more arms in the pen when a starter falters. Why he did not start Richards or Wada for the "bullpen" game is debatable; but now in the heat of the wild card race, he is not using Hunter, Edwards, Wada, Ramirez, or Medina hardly at all.
Maddon may not trust most of his bullpen arms, but in September you have to or things will unravel. The Cubs are really down to a two man rotation, Arrieta and Lester. Hammel Hendricks, and Haren are struggling to get through 5 innings a start. You need fresh arms to eat up innings to get to Rondon in the 9th.
He has gotten his position players to buy in to the platoon, "match up" situations even though Schwarber should be playing more since his bat is the most consistent weapon at the top of the line up. Maddon has more pieces to add late in a game for defensive purposes (Baez, LaStella, Jackson). He needs to put as much attention into making the bullpen as strong as his bench.
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