Here are my game thoughts from the Cubs victory over the Bucs:
1. Enough with the Tommy LaStella in the line-up. The idea that Bryant is a liability at third
was clearly erased last night. And LaStella's contact bat was silent last night.
2. When Arrieta takes the mound, he does not think he could win - - - he expects to win.
And his team thinks the same thing which is an extremely powerful mental edge, something
that the Blackhawks have had in their championship runs.
3. Arrieta did not even have his best command. He looked like he got tired and hit the wall
in the middle innings. I was questioning why Maddon did not take him out for Rondon in the 9th,
but I guess Arrieta/Maddon wanted to make a statement to the rest of the pitching staff
that old school "give me the ball at first pitch and let me end it" is still alive in the modern game. This reminds me of the White Sox starters during their 2005 World Series run.
4. The Schwarber home run may still be in orbit. He crushed it. With a 3-0 lead, with Arrieta on
the mound, the Pirate fans were silenced for most of the rest of the game. At that point, very few
thought the Cubs would lose the game.
5. Why do the Wild Card winners do so well in the post season? The Wild Card game is played
like a Game 7 so that pressure and experience must have some carry over into the next series.
6. Next up is the litmus test of how well Theo spent $155 million. Lester is supposed to be the
proven post-season ace. He has the champion bulldog determination to carry a team. In the
St. Louis series, he will pitch twice. He is the key to the series.
Showing posts with label wild card. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wild card. Show all posts
October 8, 2015
September 28, 2015
WILD CARD DUEL
It looks like an old fashioned, Old West Wild Card Duel.
Jake Arrieta against Gerrit Cole on October 7, 2015 in the wild card game.
Arrieta has faced the Pirates 5 times this season. His record is 3-1.
Over 36 IP, he has allowd 18 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 33 K for a 0.722 WHIP.
Cole has faced the Cubs 4 times this season. His record is 2-1.
Over 25.1 IP, Cole has allowed 20 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 32 for a 0.947 WHIP.
Arrieta has an ERA against the Pirates of 0.75.
Cole has an ERA against the Cubs of 2.13 ERA.
Arrieta has walked more Pirates per game than Cole.
Cole has more strikeouts per game than Arrieta.
But based on the metrics, Arrieta seems to have an advantage in the Wild Card game over Cole.
But there are variables in play. Arrieta has been getting better as the season has progressed. The home plate umpire and the unpredictable strike zone can either help or hurt the pitcher. And it may come down to defense. Depending on Maddon's choices, Pirates would have an advantage in defensive WAR.
The Cubs-Pirates Wild Card game clearly is going to be a low scoring, old school pitcher's duel.
Jake Arrieta against Gerrit Cole on October 7, 2015 in the wild card game.
Arrieta has faced the Pirates 5 times this season. His record is 3-1.
Over 36 IP, he has allowd 18 H, 3 ER, 8 BB, 33 K for a 0.722 WHIP.
Cole has faced the Cubs 4 times this season. His record is 2-1.
Over 25.1 IP, Cole has allowed 20 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 32 for a 0.947 WHIP.
Arrieta has an ERA against the Pirates of 0.75.
Cole has an ERA against the Cubs of 2.13 ERA.
Arrieta has walked more Pirates per game than Cole.
Cole has more strikeouts per game than Arrieta.
But based on the metrics, Arrieta seems to have an advantage in the Wild Card game over Cole.
But there are variables in play. Arrieta has been getting better as the season has progressed. The home plate umpire and the unpredictable strike zone can either help or hurt the pitcher. And it may come down to defense. Depending on Maddon's choices, Pirates would have an advantage in defensive WAR.
The Cubs-Pirates Wild Card game clearly is going to be a low scoring, old school pitcher's duel.
September 26, 2015
WILD CARD ROSTER
Any player on the team's 40 man Reserve List (or on designated disabled list) is eligible for post-season play if he was on the 40 man roster prior to midnight on August 31. Clubs have already submitted to the league office their playoff player lists.
This is important because a couple of Maddon's late September go-to guys like reliever Trevor Cahill are not currently eligible. Cahill would only be on a playoff roster if there is an injury to a player eligible for the playoffs.
So it stands that the critical wild card game will come down to 15 players selected from this list:
PITCHERS: 21
Jake Arrieta
Dallas Beeler
Carl Edwards Jr
Justin Grimm
Jason Hammel
Dan Haren
Kyle Hendricks
Tommy Hunter
* Eric Jokisch
* Jon Lester
Yoervis Medina
Jason Motte
Neil Ramirez
* Clayton Richard
Fernando Rodney
Hector Rondon
* Zac Rosscup
Pedro Strop
Jacob Turner
* Tsuyoshi Wada
* Travis Wood
>>>>> For the Wild Card game, the Cubs only need to activate ONE starter, either Arrieta or Lester. Most people believe Arrieta will get the call, leaving Lester to throw Game 1 in the divisional series.
The rest of the roster would be made up of 10 bullpen arms and 14 position players.
The bullpen arms would be: Grimm, Ramirez, Motte, Richard, Strop, Wada, Wood, Rondon, Hunter and Rodney.
CATCHERS: 3
* Miguel Montero
David Ross
* Kyle Schwarber
>>>>> All three catchers make the wild card game roster.
INFIELDERS: 9
# Arismendy Alcantara
Javy Baez
Kris Bryant
Starlin Castro
# Jonathan Herrera
* Tommy LaStella
* Anthony Rizzo
Addison Russell
Christian Villanueva
>>>>> Infield starters will be Bryant, Russell, Castro and Rizzo.
The bench infielders would be Baez and LaStella.
OUTFIELDERS: 7
* Quintin Berry
* Chris Coghlan
Chris Denorfia
# Dexter Fowler
Austin Jackson
Jorge Soler
Matt Szczur
>>>>> This leaves 5 outfield spots.
Schwarber may start in LF against Cole so the other two will probably be Fowler and Soler.
The bench OF slots would be Coghlan, Denorfia, Jackson and Szczur.
This is important because a couple of Maddon's late September go-to guys like reliever Trevor Cahill are not currently eligible. Cahill would only be on a playoff roster if there is an injury to a player eligible for the playoffs.
So it stands that the critical wild card game will come down to 15 players selected from this list:
PITCHERS: 21
Jake Arrieta
Dallas Beeler
Carl Edwards Jr
Justin Grimm
Jason Hammel
Dan Haren
Kyle Hendricks
Tommy Hunter
* Eric Jokisch
* Jon Lester
Yoervis Medina
Jason Motte
Neil Ramirez
* Clayton Richard
Fernando Rodney
Hector Rondon
* Zac Rosscup
Pedro Strop
Jacob Turner
* Tsuyoshi Wada
* Travis Wood
>>>>> For the Wild Card game, the Cubs only need to activate ONE starter, either Arrieta or Lester. Most people believe Arrieta will get the call, leaving Lester to throw Game 1 in the divisional series.
The rest of the roster would be made up of 10 bullpen arms and 14 position players.
The bullpen arms would be: Grimm, Ramirez, Motte, Richard, Strop, Wada, Wood, Rondon, Hunter and Rodney.
CATCHERS: 3
* Miguel Montero
David Ross
* Kyle Schwarber
>>>>> All three catchers make the wild card game roster.
INFIELDERS: 9
# Arismendy Alcantara
Javy Baez
Kris Bryant
Starlin Castro
# Jonathan Herrera
* Tommy LaStella
* Anthony Rizzo
Addison Russell
Christian Villanueva
>>>>> Infield starters will be Bryant, Russell, Castro and Rizzo.
The bench infielders would be Baez and LaStella.
OUTFIELDERS: 7
* Quintin Berry
* Chris Coghlan
Chris Denorfia
# Dexter Fowler
Austin Jackson
Jorge Soler
Matt Szczur
>>>>> This leaves 5 outfield spots.
Schwarber may start in LF against Cole so the other two will probably be Fowler and Soler.
The bench OF slots would be Coghlan, Denorfia, Jackson and Szczur.
August 26, 2015
PLAYOFF BASEBALL
When the Giants were recently at Wrigley Field, Joe Maddon managed the Cubs like it was a play-off series. When was the last time a Cub manager used his roster like it was a must-win game seven in a series? It worked. The atmosphere and the Cubs sweeping the Giants propelled the Cubs into the "very good team" category.
The team has exceeded most people's expectations.
It has been a rolling momentum. In the early part of the season, Anthony Rizzo was the powerful glue in the lineup. He led by example, hitting homers but also buying into the Maddon philosophy that "you get two strikes then earn first base with a walk or hit."
But the team did not have to put everything on Rizzo's shoulders. Kris Bryant was injected into the lineup which gave it another powerful, poised hitter. The Cubs continued to roll.
And when the dog days of summer came around, the team was infused with more talent. Kyle Schwarber gives the lineup another professional hitter. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Schwarber became the first Cubs player within the modern era (since 1900) to hit 12 home runs within his first 42 career games.
By September, the Cubs will have another injection of talent, especially to upgrade second base over Chris Coghlan and Starlin Castro platoon, with Javy Baez. Down the stretch, defense matters and Baez is a better fielder than either Coghlan or Castro.
Throughout the season, the most consistent player has been Jake Arrieta. He has become the quiet ace of the staff. He looks mad when he goes to the mound. His control has been excellent. He has pitched 13 straight quality starts. The debate is over: he will be the wild card game starter.
There are still some glaring weaknesses on the team. The fourth and fifth starter roles have been a sore point. The overworked bullpen is beginning to show the strain of the long season.
The West Coast road trip has traditionally been a Cub killer. But with an opening swing victory over the Giants, sending San Francisco 7.5 GB the Cubs in the wild card race, the Cubs could bury the Giants with a series sweep. The Cubs have won six in a row. They no longer think about just "winning" series but sweeping series.
To add to the joy of this summer, this team is very likable. They are young, energetic, polite, and professional - - - which is a testament to how Maddon has forged a special bond with his players.
The Cubs control their own destiny this season. That itself is a scary but unexpected result.
The team has exceeded most people's expectations.
It has been a rolling momentum. In the early part of the season, Anthony Rizzo was the powerful glue in the lineup. He led by example, hitting homers but also buying into the Maddon philosophy that "you get two strikes then earn first base with a walk or hit."
But the team did not have to put everything on Rizzo's shoulders. Kris Bryant was injected into the lineup which gave it another powerful, poised hitter. The Cubs continued to roll.
And when the dog days of summer came around, the team was infused with more talent. Kyle Schwarber gives the lineup another professional hitter. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Schwarber became the first Cubs player within the modern era (since 1900) to hit 12 home runs within his first 42 career games.
By September, the Cubs will have another injection of talent, especially to upgrade second base over Chris Coghlan and Starlin Castro platoon, with Javy Baez. Down the stretch, defense matters and Baez is a better fielder than either Coghlan or Castro.
Throughout the season, the most consistent player has been Jake Arrieta. He has become the quiet ace of the staff. He looks mad when he goes to the mound. His control has been excellent. He has pitched 13 straight quality starts. The debate is over: he will be the wild card game starter.
There are still some glaring weaknesses on the team. The fourth and fifth starter roles have been a sore point. The overworked bullpen is beginning to show the strain of the long season.
The West Coast road trip has traditionally been a Cub killer. But with an opening swing victory over the Giants, sending San Francisco 7.5 GB the Cubs in the wild card race, the Cubs could bury the Giants with a series sweep. The Cubs have won six in a row. They no longer think about just "winning" series but sweeping series.
To add to the joy of this summer, this team is very likable. They are young, energetic, polite, and professional - - - which is a testament to how Maddon has forged a special bond with his players.
The Cubs control their own destiny this season. That itself is a scary but unexpected result.
August 13, 2015
HOW STRANGE
Did you realize that this morning the defending World Series champions, the Giants, are the same amount of games out of the Wild Card than the lowly White Sox?
Both teams are 4.5 GB in the last wild card spot.
But you could never imagine anyone thinking the Giants and White Sox' shot at the playoffs were equal. The Giants are a good, competitive club even though they were swept by the Cubs. The White Sox have been an underwhelming, underachieving team all season.
The AL playoff race has tightened up. The White Sox still have to climb over many teams to reach the playoffs while the Giants only need the Pirates or Cubs to fall.
But anything is possible.
Take the Blue Jays unbelievable run.
Last night twelve of the first 16 Blue Jays batters reached base as Toronto scored three runs in the first and seven in the second to trounce Oakland for the Jays' 10th consecutive victory. A victory with the Yankees loss to Cleveland, moved the Blue Jays into first place in the AL East.
Two weeks ago, the Blue Jays were in 4th place and 8 games out of first place. Then they made a flurry of deals including acquiring Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Since then, the Blue Jays have gone 13-1 while the Yankees have gone 4-9.
Realistically, there is 7 weeks left in the season. Any team more than 7 games behind a playoff slot is probably out of the race, since making up 1 game a 1 week is the most reasonable prediction any GM can make at this time in the season.
Both teams are 4.5 GB in the last wild card spot.
But you could never imagine anyone thinking the Giants and White Sox' shot at the playoffs were equal. The Giants are a good, competitive club even though they were swept by the Cubs. The White Sox have been an underwhelming, underachieving team all season.
The AL playoff race has tightened up. The White Sox still have to climb over many teams to reach the playoffs while the Giants only need the Pirates or Cubs to fall.
But anything is possible.
Take the Blue Jays unbelievable run.
Last night twelve of the first 16 Blue Jays batters reached base as Toronto scored three runs in the first and seven in the second to trounce Oakland for the Jays' 10th consecutive victory. A victory with the Yankees loss to Cleveland, moved the Blue Jays into first place in the AL East.
Two weeks ago, the Blue Jays were in 4th place and 8 games out of first place. Then they made a flurry of deals including acquiring Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Since then, the Blue Jays have gone 13-1 while the Yankees have gone 4-9.
Realistically, there is 7 weeks left in the season. Any team more than 7 games behind a playoff slot is probably out of the race, since making up 1 game a 1 week is the most reasonable prediction any GM can make at this time in the season.
September 28, 2013
UNBALANCED
MLB added a second wild card to add some end of year excitement in a few more baseball cities. It was also a solution to a growing concern by some team owners about the unbalanced major league schedule.
In 2013, with the Astros move to the AL West, every division will have the same number of teams, every team will play the same number of intradivision and interleague games, and MLB promised that there will be “at least one Interleague game every day.”
Why that promise is not necessarily a great thing is that historically, divisional games draw the most home field attendance. Interleague is a fad marketing concept to help spark some fan interest, but it may jolt some teams home games every five years or so if the Yankees or Red Sox come to town, but not so much if it is the Mariners or Astros.
This season every team will play exactly 19 games against each of the other four teams in its division (76 total), 6-7 intraleague games against each of the 10 teams in the other two divisions (66 total), and 20 interleague games.
The problem with this schedule for owners in the AL East is that with 49 percent of their games against really good divisional foes, the other divisions such as the AL Central and AL West can coast to better overall records (which the wild card is based upon).
For example, the Rangers are +13 in wins against the Astros. The Rays have no such punching bag in the AL East.
There is a cry for a competitive solution to the unbalanced schedule.
First option is get rid of the 20 interleague games. Let the two leagues play by their different DH rules for an entire season. Let interleague play be post-season only.
Second option is to create a balance schedule within each league. 162 games divided by 14 opponents equals 11.57 games/opponent. But that can be tinkered slightly. 11 games per league opponent equals 154 games (the old season). The remaining 8 additional games can be divided among your divisional opponents, 2 games piece.
Third option is add 6 more games to the schedule (168) and have each team play equal number of games against league opponents (12 games per year). That would be the most balanced solution.
But the season is too long anyway. Owners have balked at shortening the season to 154 games. Marketing managers want to keep the interleague contests as a means of selling season ticket packages in the off-season. Expanding the leagues to add another team to get to 32 is also out of the question because the economy would not support another two franchises (especially when there are current teams that need revenue sharing and luxury tax money in order to survive.)
Baseball is a game of black and white rules clouded at times in the gray of interpretation. The unbalanced schedule is one of those gray areas of unfairness for some teams who happen to be parked in a very competitive division.
In 2013, with the Astros move to the AL West, every division will have the same number of teams, every team will play the same number of intradivision and interleague games, and MLB promised that there will be “at least one Interleague game every day.”
Why that promise is not necessarily a great thing is that historically, divisional games draw the most home field attendance. Interleague is a fad marketing concept to help spark some fan interest, but it may jolt some teams home games every five years or so if the Yankees or Red Sox come to town, but not so much if it is the Mariners or Astros.
This season every team will play exactly 19 games against each of the other four teams in its division (76 total), 6-7 intraleague games against each of the 10 teams in the other two divisions (66 total), and 20 interleague games.
The problem with this schedule for owners in the AL East is that with 49 percent of their games against really good divisional foes, the other divisions such as the AL Central and AL West can coast to better overall records (which the wild card is based upon).
For example, the Rangers are +13 in wins against the Astros. The Rays have no such punching bag in the AL East.
There is a cry for a competitive solution to the unbalanced schedule.
First option is get rid of the 20 interleague games. Let the two leagues play by their different DH rules for an entire season. Let interleague play be post-season only.
Second option is to create a balance schedule within each league. 162 games divided by 14 opponents equals 11.57 games/opponent. But that can be tinkered slightly. 11 games per league opponent equals 154 games (the old season). The remaining 8 additional games can be divided among your divisional opponents, 2 games piece.
Third option is add 6 more games to the schedule (168) and have each team play equal number of games against league opponents (12 games per year). That would be the most balanced solution.
But the season is too long anyway. Owners have balked at shortening the season to 154 games. Marketing managers want to keep the interleague contests as a means of selling season ticket packages in the off-season. Expanding the leagues to add another team to get to 32 is also out of the question because the economy would not support another two franchises (especially when there are current teams that need revenue sharing and luxury tax money in order to survive.)
Baseball is a game of black and white rules clouded at times in the gray of interpretation. The unbalanced schedule is one of those gray areas of unfairness for some teams who happen to be parked in a very competitive division.
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