WORSE THAN HORRIBLE

The Cubs bullpen may be the worst collection of arms in a century.

 It is the most glaring weakness on a ball club that has started out at 4-2.

In the short 2020 season, 10 percent has been played.

Overall, the pitching staff is not doing well: 4 W 2 L 5.43 ERA 53 IP 39 H 32 ER 27 BB 1.245 WHIP

But the bullpen is a black hole of badness: 0 W 0 L 9.65 ERA 18.2 IP 18 H 20 ER 20 BB 2.036 WHIP

 The answer to this problem is clear: the Cubs failed to address the bullpen issues. The reason was management refused in the off-season to spend any money.

Instead, you have pitchers coming out of the pen you have never heard of; some making their major league debuts, some long term minor league journeymen, or some who have not thrown in two years a major league pitch. The bullpen is a bunch of reclamation projects with a slim hope that one will catch lightning in a bottle.

Cub fans are stuck with this horror show. With the expanded playoffs of 16 of 30 teams, no one is really going to trade anyone at the deadline. And some teams, like the Marlins, are toxic viral clusters so why infect your team with another problem?

Can the offense score 6 runs or more each game to counter-balance the bad bullpen? NO, of course not.
 
And that is why this season will be worse than expected.

ANOTHER BAD IDEA

Just before the strange 2020 season began, MLB and the union agreed to an expanded playoff.
As MLB continues to shovel "new" rules and game changes, why not add another bad one to the pile? The season is a mess to begin with.

According to ESPN, the agreement  is just for this season.

Playoffs now expand from 10 teams to 16. Fifty-three percent of all teams are now part of the 16-team expanded playoff proposal. Yeah, youth baseball participation awards are here!

But then it gets even worse.

The No. 1, 2, 3 seeds in each league—the Division winners—would pick their opponents among the other five teams. This is a hokey, cheesy television reality show STUNT. Does MLB have any institutional PRIDE left?

According to multiple reports, the top-three in each league will go to regular season division winners. According to Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, the second place team in each division will also qualify for the postseason with the remaining two spots going to the teams with the next best records.

The real problem with this new format is that THE BEST TEAMS are not rewarded by the new system. The  division second place teams are automatically in the post-season even if their record is worse than other teams in their league. In a 60 game schedule, this may have sub-.500 clubs automatically making the post season and a club with an above .500 record sitting out.

But it is not about having the best teams playing for a championship. It is not about having the best product on the field.

"We are excited to announce the expansion of the 2020 Postseason," commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. "This season will be a spring to a new format that will allow more fans to experience playoff baseball. We look forward to a memorable Postseason concluding a year like no other and appreciate the continued partnership and enthusiasm of ESPN and TBS."

THIS!

The new playoff push was from the national networks who are trying to salvage some revenue by having more post-season games (which benefit MLB owners as well).

MAGNIFICATION

The 2020 season will be a grind. 60 games in 9 weeks plus 2 days. There will only be 5 days off.

Commentators have called this season a "sprint" to the finish. It is more like "sink or swim."

The general rule of thumb in pennant race is that a team is still in contention if the number of games behind is equal to or less than the number of weeks left in the season. The reason is simple: unless you are playing the divisional leader head to head, it is very difficult to gain ground or pass other division teams.

The schedule will be a pressure cooker. Teams are going to be playing an average of 6.6 games per week. That is about as bad as youth travel baseball clubs.

Each win or loss equals 3 regular season games.

A three game losing streak is equal to a 9 game losing streak. That is the magnitude of the season.

Each three game series is a playoff contest. You must win two of three in order to advance. That has to be the mindset. There needs to be a sense of urgency. There may be a 40 victory team this season (equal to 120 wins) and a 40 loss team (perhaps in the same division).

The microscope will be on everyone: the new managers trying to learn on the fly; established starters who cannot afford "slow" starts; and teams with high cost talent with no major revenue. Post-season or bust has never been more alarming than this year. As it stands today, starting pitchers are having a harder time getting into game shape than hitters.

And this assumes that the league will actually play a full season. Today, it was reported another 70,000 positive coronavirus tests in the US. The Toronto Blue Jays have been evicted from Canada. The plan to play in Pittsburgh was vetoed yesterday by the state. The Jays might as well change their name to the "Orphans."

With the new game rules and the condensed schedule, the 2020 season will have a big question mark in the history and record books. If a player hits .400, does it really count?

BY THE NUMBERS

Today's story is a continuing loop of arrogant denial.
The Cubs think their team is the best entertainment product in Chicago
so Comcast HAS TO carry its network.

Today's story from Yahoo Sports:

“I’m starting to lose you. Hello?”

That was Marquee Sports Network general manager Mike McCarthy when asked for an update on the carriage talks between his network and Comcast, which has yet to pick up the channel. It wasn’t the first time he played the joke, either.

“Good memory,” he said. “I’ll have to come up with another one.” 

McCarthy, who previously was president of MSG Network in New York, knows all about carriage talks. But he wouldn’t reveal much regarding the ones that affect lots of Cubs fans, except to say he’s confident a deal will get done. 

“I can’t speak for Comcast, but I wouldn’t want to be in the TV distribution business in Chicago with the Cubs coming back and not having that content,” he said. “It wouldn’t be a fun place to be, I would think. 

“We have a confidence that we’re steadfast in. There’s a little time left [before Opening Day]. It’s closing in on us; we’re very aware of that. We remain confident that a deal will be made.”

The sides were very close to an agreement in March when baseball shut down because of the coronavirus pandemic. Comcast provides service to more than half of the homes in the market.

>>>> Of course he cannot speak for Comcast because Comcast holds all the leverage and understands it does not need the Cubs to succeed.

It already has a baseball team - - - its partner in CSNBC. And the White Sox have the buzz the Cubs had in 2015 but with a younger team.

The math does not make sense for Comcast. It's extended basic package in Chicago already costs $95/month. Cord cutting is still happening because of the cost. The Cubs wanted $6/month per subscriber - - - that puts the costs over a hundred dollars a month for most people who will not even watch the games.

In 2019, Cubs local ratings dropped from 4.8 to 4.1 (135,000 viewers).
If a cable operator has 1.6 million subscribers, but only 135,000 watch Cubs games, it means 92 percent of its customers DO NOT want to pay for the Cubs games.

By this metric, Comcast could only justify the expense if 135,000 x $4/viewer/month (last alleged Cubs offer) or $540,000/month (or a 34 cent increase in all customer bills).

By the Cubs financial desire and valuation, it wants $4/viewer/month on 1.6 million subscribers or $6.4 million/month. (Which equate to $76.8 million, which is less than reported TV revenue in 2019 by about 22%).

Comcast is in no rush to EAT $6 million/month for Cubs broadcasts when it has the White Sox on its own regional sports network. Why bail out a competitor?

And why should Comcast pay for Marquee when the 2020 season is still in doubt? By signing a carriage deal now, Comcast would have to pay Marquee whether Cubs games are shown or not. A network that has not gotten good reviews from those few people who actually can see it.

The Cubs ownership position was flawed from the beginning. It took too long to get its network in place under the broken and outdated Dodgers model. Ownership got greedy because of the built up debt and realities of overbuilding around Wrigley. Management arrogantly assumed that it could get a better deal than its past cable partnership. By all metrics, they are wrong.

MORE CHANGES

It is official: the minor and Mexican leagues have canceled their 2020 seasons.

If there will be pro ball, it will be MLB.

It is still a big "if."

With a 60 man roster for a 60 game season, general managers and field skippers are going into a new frontier. It is possible that a .500 team will make the playoffs. It is also possible that a 5 game losing streak could be a death sentence.

A few managers have already decided that they will do 6 or 7 man rotations. However, the starting pitchers may not be able to give consistent 6 IP/ start (this was last year's trend.) Middle relievers may be the most valuable players on the roster.

With every pitcher having to throw to at least 3 batters, the concept of an "opener" is still in play, but probably will not be used based on the lack of starters who can throw deep into a game.

However, as we discussed in the past, it may be time to think about pitching staffs as "pods," squads of pitchers assigned to navigate a game. The opening day roster is 30 players so most teams will have at least 15 pitchers available. In game 1, pitchers A, B, C and D are assigned to throw at least 7 innings. Players X and Y are designated "game closers" for 8th and 9th inning, if available. In game 2, pitchers E, F, G, and H have the same 7 IP assignment. In game 3, pitchers I, J, K and L are assigned 7 IP. Pitcher Z (the 15th man) is the "stopper," who can come in any inning to stop an opponent's rally. It is also noteworthy that MLB dropped the field player's ability to pitch in games so in blow out games, your reserve outfielder can pitch.

The "pod" system is probably ideal for a staff of all middle relievers and closers. But since MLB's restart is going to be less than a spring training, one should look at the beginning of the real season as an extended exhibition schedule.

The use of the DH will be problematic for NL teams. Frank Thomas said it took him a long time to adjust being a DH (almost an entire year.) When you play in the field, you have the rhythm of the game. Your mind is constantly in game focus. If you are a DH, you are on the bench - - - separated from "the action." Every at bat is like "pinch hitting." Rarely do pinch hitters put up MVP numbers.

Another change will be MLB coverage. Media reporters to access to managers and players will be non-existent. Radio and TV announcers may not even travel with the team. Social distancing means no locker room interviews or on-field celebrations. With no fans in the stands, telecasts will be either silent, erie or artificially enhanced by sound engineers.

But the biggest change could happen in 2021. If owners think they can use a 60 man roster for an entire season, the current MiLB development leagues could evaporate. MLB wanted this year to eliminate 42 team affiliates. Instead, it got them all. Minor league owners now see 19 months without a dime of revenue (95% is based on home game fan attendance.) Teams can save millions in minor league agreements if they have a 30 man roster and a 30 man taxi squad.

It would mean that there would be thousands of minor league free agents without a club contract. It would also mean that the minor league system would be all independent leagues without MLB support. It would make college players stay longer in school in order to polished before being drafted by a team. MLB could see colleges as development leagues like the NFL does.

The final great change from this pandemic season is the sudden backbone of the union. It did not back down from its positions. It is taking hard line stances against the owners as a prelude to the next CBA in 2021-22.

THE LOST SEASON

Chalk up 2020 as baseball's Lost Season.

Nothing the owners and players will do going forward will salvage the lingering bitterness of money issues in the middle of an economic crushing pandemic.

MLB will take this messed up world to screw with the game's rules and traditions. Some of the projected changes:

All teams will now use the Designated Hitter. The lack of the DH was the National League's last bastion of tradition - - - and baseball strategy of a manager thinking ahead in a game to use his bullpen and field players in a winning combination. The DH eliminates much of the manager's decision process: pinch hitting, pitching around hitters, double switches, etc.

There will be the realignment that sees each team play only within its own division and against the five teams of the corresponding division in the other league. The exact permutations of that scheduling arrangement could take a variety of forms (e.g. a pair of three-game series and one four-game series against divisional opponents, plus one four-game series against each of the five teams in the opposing league’s corresponding division), but the goal will be to generally limit travel schedules to the extent possible, not that it’s a perfect setup for all clubs. In the past many owners have sought realignment by geography to reduce travel expenses. This may be an opportunity to put that new framework in place, but to the potential cost of current rivalries.

A major change is to begin extra innings with a runner on second base in an alleged effort to avoid marathon games. (Pitchers would not be charged with an earned run if said runner scores.)  This is a terrible option. It fundamentally changes the purpose of fundamentals of the game: rewarding a team without getting a double. It penalizes a pitcher who at the start of an inning with a runner in scoring position. It also messes up the most sacred thing: statistics. A player's stats need to be fully earned.

If MLB and teams are so concerned that this short season will wreck havoc on pitching staffs because of extra inning games: allow bigger pitching rosters or ALLOW TIES. There is nothing wrong with a tie (it happens in many other sports, including the early history of baseball).
 
They have also discussed the possibility of allowing already subbed-out players to reenter the game once it reaches extras. Is this Little League??!!! It gives managers an unlimited Get Out of Jail free card for his line up mistakes.

Since the owners and players have been at odds for the entire year, it is doubtful that any meaningful agreement can be reached by the sides. Health and safety issues are still up in the air. Major league facilities were closed down within weeks after positive tests from players and staff. No one will address what will happen if a player tests positive during the season. Does he go on the DL? Does all his teammates have to be quarantined as being in contact with him? If more than 4 or 5 players test positive, will the club be suspended from play? Do they then forfeit games to get the season to the playoffs? What about umpires and coaches health issues?

There is no guarantee that MLB will get all this right, but substantially changing rules is wrong.

LESS THAN HALF THE STORY

I take issue with the one-sided nature of Bruce Levine's report. He did not challenge Tom Ricketts statements to season ticket holders.


Levine stated Ricketts' comment were notable because owners and players have key financial discussions looming as they negotiate a return-to-play framework for a 2020 season that has been suspended due to the coronavirus pandemic. Owners have proposed a plan that includes 50-50 revenue sharing, which the union has pushed back against, saying that it's a form of a salary cap.
Some players have expressed the belief that they should be compensated on a full pro-rated basis because they're the ones taking the health risk, as Rays ace Blake Snell said recently. Beyond that, another argument is that it's unfair for owners to "privatize the the gains and socialize the losses," as powerful agent Scott Boras said. The union hasn't officially commented on its stance.

Under the system of paying players fully pro-rated money, the losses would be too significant in the owners' eyes. MLB owners stand to lose an estimated $4 billion if no baseball is played in 2020, MLB commissioner said on CNN on Thursday.

"This has been a total shutdown of Major League Baseball," Ricketts said. "Unlike the NBA or NHL who had played 80 percent of their seasons, we have played zero. We have to look at how economics will affect the rest of the season. If we are looking at games with no fans, then we do have a real challenge. For the Cubs, about 70 percent of the (gross) revenues come in on the day of games. It comes in through selling tickets, concessions and the ballpark experience (such as parking and merchandise). The other 30 percent comes in through media -- whether it's on Marquee Sports Network, our local media partners and our share of the national media revenues.

"So ultimately, what we are looking at if we can get players into the ballparks is playing a partial season without fans. We are looking at 30 percent of our economics cut in half, so the fact is we must dig deep to find a financial model that works -- the players must feel fairly compensated and ownership doesn't continue to absorb the kind of losses we have so far this season. We are all working diligently toward that. At some point, there will be more discussions. You will hear a lot about it and read a lot about it. It must come down to finding a solution that works for everyone."
Ricketts emphasized players safety is the top priority for the league and owners.

"Every week, the owners have met to talk about how to get baseball back on the field," he said. "We have currently talked about getting back into our home ballparks for this season. That would be without fans. The league has worked very diligently to put into place the most extensive set of protocols, medical safeguards that are out there anywhere. We would be limiting access to the players, limiting access to the number of people in the park. With a strong testing regiment and various other protocols, we can create the safest working environment possible for our players if they are able to come back this summer. We do not have a 100% answer or all clear, but we think the league has created a safe working environment for players to come back to the ballparks. That is very good."

The news report only soft peddles an owner who is not telling a complete truth by trying to gain sympathy over his greedy players. Ricketts is snake oil selling his season ticket holders WHO ALREADY GAVE HIM THEIR MONEY. But Ricketts is hiding in his figures.

As I have reported since the Zell sale, Ricketts family has divided up various parts of "the old Cubs" into separate legal entities: the Cubs as a baseball franchise, Wrigley Field as a real estate owner, the parking lots as a different LLC, the triangle parcel as a separate corporation, and the hotel block as a separate entity. In other words, the Cubs have been stripped of any outside revenue generating properties.

The Cubs team is merely a TENANT at Wrigley Field. It does not share ANY of the revenue from parking, the plaza, or the real estate development income.

When Ricketts says that 70% of Cubs income comes directly from fans (when the league average is only 30%) it is a three card monte financial statement illusion. He is not counting the RENT the Cubs pay to the Ricketts, or all the Wrigleyville income/outside ball park concessions and alcohol sales. The Cubs were stripped down of any outside income sources so the money could flow directly into Ricketts bank accounts.

As for the other 30% income: Marquee Network (a bust), local radio (on a station friendly low revenue deal because Kenney screwed up local rights years ago), and the national TV contract share (which is less than other clubs because Chicago is a large market city). When he says half of the media money is gone, he is saying that Marquee has generated nothing compared to his old Comcast partnership.

Ricketts's turned the Cubs baseball operation, if it is 70 percent dependent on the gate for income,  into a struggling, small market model.






Claiming the Cubs are in dire straights in the coronavirus panic is a FALSE NARRATIVE because Ricketts brought this financial house of cards down on himself. Three restaurants in his buildings have closed in less than 18 months of operation. His big $$$$$ Cubs network is a disaster. Even his local radio partner stopped replaying classic games (when the station has no live content!) He is not selling merchandise; he is not selling alcohol by the barge load; he is not a very good businessman.

He wants "a solution that works" for everybody, but he is really whining about his own potential crushing financial losses.  The 50-50 revenue share works for a delusional Ricketts because no fans in the stands means at 70 percent pay cut for players. If the media income is down by half or more, that means another 15 percent pay cut for the players.

The outside the ball club revenue has to have taken a major hit as Chicago shut down bars and most of the restaurants. Without Cub games, there is no influx of tourists and fans to his Wrigleyville properties. Closed businesses are going to fall behind on rental payments or go out of business.  The Ricketts created their own overdeveloped real estate bubble which burst when the season was suspended by the pandemic.