It is kind of hard to read the tea leaves with the cup is on fire.
"Realistically, our chance of playing in October is very small and we need to add a lot of talent to get better for the future. That's the reality of the situation." - - - Jed Hoyer
The real question is which October?
2013 was an expected write-off season like 2012.
2014 was the first competitive marker when Epstein and Hoyer joined the Cubs. Since the Cubs plan is to blow up the current roster for more prospects, the team will not be competitive in 2014.
2015 should have been the end line: playoffs. But since most of the Epstein-Hoyer talent is in rookie and Class A ball, none will progress through a full season at AAA Iowa (a metric for hitters to be promoted). Further, most of this year's international signee class will not even make it to the United States until 2015 rookie ball.
2016 now appears the earliest glimmer of hope if Baez, Soler, Almora, etc. pan out as the front office projects. But to have a rookie heavy everyday roster is fit with perils, too. Think Kansas City Royals.
2017 will be when the current low level minor talent straggles to the big league club to join the first wave who may or may not have their sophomore slump seasons. The roster core should be in the prime production years. But it still less than a fifty-fifty proposition that the Cubs will make the playoffs based upon the historical record that only one in five players make an impact when they make the major leagues.
Realistically, there is a very slim chance that the Cubs will have a playoff caliber club in the next four years. This year's motto may be "spend now, pray for results later."
