There is a great debate on how long will it take Epstein-Hoyer to rebuild the Cubs into a championship caliber club. By stuffing the low minors with prospects may be part of The Plan, but there have been other teams doing the same thing for a longer time. The question may come down to what path the Cubs are on: the road to Pittsburgh (currently in 2nd place in NL Central) or to Kansas City (a club in perpetual rebuild mode).
Pittsburgh began pro ball in 1882. It's first playoff team was in 1903 (21 years later). In 1909 and 1925 it won the World Series. In 1927 it lost the series. In 1960, after a 33 year playoff drought, the Pirates won the World Series. In 1970, the Pirates started another playoff run. In 1971, it won the World Series. In 1972, 1974 and 1975, it lost in the NLCS. Then in 1979, it won the World Series. The next year, the team missed the playoffs with a 83-79 record.
The next playoff run for the Pirates began in 1990, and for three season they lost in the NLCS. In 1993, the team record fell to 75-87. Since 1994, the Pirates did not have one .500 team. It has been 20 years since a playoff berth.
The Pirates history indicates that it usually takes 20 years to get champion caliber teams.
The Royals began in 1969 as an expansion team. It had to build an organization from the ground up. It's first playoff team happened 7 years later in 1976, losing in the ALCS. This was repeated in 1977 and 1978. In 1980, it lost in the World Series. In 1981, it lost in the first round of the playoffs. In 1984, it lost in the ALCS. Then, in 1985, it won the World Series. The next year, the club went 76-86.
Since 1987, the Royals have had seven above .500 teams. The last .500 team was in 2003 (83-79). The Royals have gone 10 years since being a .500 squad. The Royals have gone 27 years without a playoff team.
From what the Cubs plan on doing, these comparisons are valid even though Chicago is not a small market team. At best, it may take seven years of building to get a playoff team (which would mean 2018). At worst, it could around 15 years or 2025 to have a championship caliber team. And the worst case scenario is a possibility because ownership will be borrowing most of the $500 million to redevelop the Ricketts properties. The Cubs ball club only rents Wrigley Field. It does not own it. Separate legal entities own the three main parcels to be redeveloped. The new revenue streams will flow into those separate businesses to pay down the massive debt and maintenance for the new buildings. For all the assumption that the Cubs will suddenly have unlimited resources to spend on free agents in the near future is a myth. The Cubs will be rebuilding like a small market team since the new revenue will be diverted to pay construction and land development expenses first, with very little trickle down to the club (only the improvements inside Wrigley).
