There is a lot of fan debate on whether the Cubs made a good deal in trading Garza to the Rangers.
On Monday, the Cubs completed the Matt Garza to the Rangers for C.J. Edwards, Justin Grimm, Mike Olt, and a PTBNL (either Neil Ramirez or presumably two lower-level arms). Olt is a potential power-hitting third baseman with a good glove, though there are questions about his ability to make contact. Edwards is a high-ceiling arm who has emerged from obscurity to show great stuff in Class A ball. Grimm is a rookie pitcher that has been getting shelled in the majors but may have mid-rotation upside. Ramirez is a 24 year old AA-arm with good pitches except he is coming off shoulder issues.
So when takes a quick gut check observation of the trade, it seems okay if you are a risk taker. Olt may not be the great prospect he once was because of concussion/vision issues. Grimm is putting up Chris Volstad type numbers in Texas. Can the Cubs turn him around like they did Scott Feldman? Edwards appears to be the prize, but he is probably four years away and some consider his frame to be a real issue. Ramirez may be good but injuries at an early stage of his career are a potential concern.
In essence, the Cubs think they received two major league ready players (Grimm and Olt) but who may really be AAA+ players. Ramirez is a Class AA arm and Edwards is a Class A prospect with a high ceiling and some buzz.
This trade comes nearly two and a half years after the Cubs' acquisition of Garza from the Rays. In that trade, the Cubs sent Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, Robinson Chirinos, and Sam Fuld.
Did the Cubs get more in return for Garza than they gave up to get him? With the Cubs, Garza had 60 starts and only 21 wins.
The current performance lines of the former Cub prospects:
Archer, 24, 5-3, 2.76 ERA major leagues, FA 2019
Lee, 22, SS, .422 BA, 1 HR, 7 RBI in 15 AAA games, coming off injury; 5 minor league seasons: .290 career BA (#90 prospect BA/#56 MLB)
Guyer, 27, OF, .300 BA, 7 HR, 38 RBI, 19 SB in 87 AAA games; FA 2018
Chirinos, 29, C.154 BA as #3 catcher in Texas, FA 2018; coming off injury
Fuld, 31, OF.198 BA, 2 HR 11 RBI 3 SB in 75 GP with Tampa as 5th OF; FA 2017
Archer will be a starting pitcher for the Rays for years to come. He has quality pitches but some scouts worry about his command. Lee has the tools to be a starting major league short stop. An injury has set him back a year, but he could be on the Rays roster next season. Guyer has been blocked by current Rays outfielders, but he is major league ready. Chirinos had a concussion and lost a full season plus. Before his injury, he was on the Rays major league roster and getting good reviews as a back up catcher with some power. Fuld continues to be the person he was with the Cubs: reserve outfielder with plus defense and stolen base potential.
In retrospect, Archer may have had half the starts of Garza over the last 2.5 years, but he would also been more affordable with upside. Lee would have been in the same position as Junior Lake, a talented shortstop blocked by Starlin Castro but who could move to a new position. Lee could have given the Cubs more offense this year at second base. Guyer would have been playing OF for the Cubs the past few years, since he has similar David DeJesus numbers without the at bats. Fuld would have been the mainstay fifth outfielder since he is clearly better than Dave Sappelt, Marlon Byrd, Julio Borbon or Joe Mather. And Chirinos would have been a much better catcher than Koy Hill and would have pushed Geo Soto for a starting job.
All five of the former Cub prospects will reach the majors. Two of the Ranger prospects the Cubs received have reached the majors, but have struggled and it is unknown if the other three will make it in the future.
At the time, I thought the Cubs gave up too much to acquire Garza. Yesterday, I thought the Cubs got a mish mash of talent for Garza which is understandable since he is a two month rental. So comparing the two deals is like comparing apples to oranges. I just do not think the Ranger prospects have more upside than the Cub prospects when they were traded to the Rays for Garza.
