After sweating various medical reports from both sides, the Cubs and Rangers finally made the Matt Garza deal. The vast majority of the Cub fandom was pleased by the trade results. But it may be based on superficial headline fodder such as the Cubs receiving the Rangers No. 1 prospect.
Garza was dealt for former No. 1 prospect (BA MLB No. 22 last year) Mike Olt. Olt, 24, batted .288/.398/.579 at Double-A Frisco last season and making his Major League debut with the Rangers. However, in the off season he suffered a concussion. He's battled vision problems in 2013 and his production has tanked to .218/.318/.438 at Triple-A Round Rock. Prior to the season, BA praised his plus raw power and advanced hitting approach, calling him "a threat to go deep anytime he steps to the plate." BA, ESPN's Keith Law and MLB.com's John Mayo all agree that he's a plus defender at third though Law questioned whether or not he will make enough contact to hit at the big league level with any consistency. So Olt was the Rangers best prospect, until he was injured. Last year the Rangers would not deal Olt to the Cubs for Ryan Dempster. The change in Texas's plans should have raised a red flag to the Cubs.
The Cubs hedged the trade by asking for one or two players to be named later if Olt cannot perform at a reasonable level. The PTBNL are from a list of pitchers, some of whom have past injury concerns such as Neil Ramirez, who was once part of the original package. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Cubs select Ramirez as the PTBNL in the deal the Cubs will not receive a second PTBNL.
In addition, the Cubs received two other pitchers: major league right handed starter Justin Grimm and Class A right hander C.J. Edwards. Grimm could be best compared to Chris Volstad, a marginal No. 5 starter with a high ERA and high WHIP. Grimm, 24, has made 17 starts for the Rangers this season but posted an ugly 6.37 ERA in 17 starts.He seems to be a placeholder selection for Garza's spot to finish out the season. Many people are excited by the Edwards pick. He is a string bean 6'1" 155 lb pitcher. Edwards, 21, ranked as Texas' No. 15 prospect prior to the season. Edwards' stock has skyrocketed in 2013, as he's pitched to a pristine 1.83 ERA with 11.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 93 1/3 innings for Class A Hickory.
By comparison, former Cub pitcher Chris Archer when he was 21 had a minor league record of 15-3, 2.84 ERA, 1.174 WHIP in High Class A and AA . Archer was the centerpiece of the Cubs trade to acquire Garza from Tampa Bay.
The Rangers stepped up their initial offer because it appeared that other ball clubs were in the mix. Oakland, which is trying to keep the Rangers at bay in the AL West, were rumored to have interest in Garza in order to keep him away from the Rangers. Oakland's interest may have been accelerated by the PED suspension rumors of the Biogenesis scandal which could affect one of the A's starters. But it seemed the A's did not have the quantity of prospects the Cubs were seeking for Garza.
It was possible that the Cubs could have held on to Garza if the Cubs were not going to get the prospect package they want for Garza. That would have meant Garza could stay a Cub for the rest of the season. And this would give the Cubs another option: allow Garza to go unrestricted free agency or give him a qualifying offer.
MLBTR explains:
- Teams will have until five days after the World Series to make qualifying offers and the players will have seven days to accept.
- Once a team makes a qualifying offer, the player has two choices: he can accept the one-year deal or decline in it search of other offers. If he declines the offer and signs elsewhere, his new team will have to surrender a top draft pick (the selection doesn't go to the player's former team).
- Teams that sign free agents who turned down qualifying offers will surrender their first round picks. However, the forfeited picks don't go to other MLB teams. Instead, the first round simply becomes condensed.
- The first ten selections in the draft are protected. Teams with protected picks will surrender their second-highest selections.
- The player’s former team will receive its compensatory selection at the end of the first round. Teams now obtain one compensatory selection, instead of two.
- If teams don’t make a qualifying offer, the player can sign uninhibited.
- Only players who have been with their clubs for the entire season will be eligible for compensation.
Cubs thought that the package of an injured third baseman in Olt, a young arm in Edwards and at least one other minor league pitcher more valuable than the possibility of a low first round supplemental draft pick in 2014. The Cubs have contract control of Olt to 2019 (arb eligible in 2016). If Olt regains his form and is the third baseman with plus defense beginning in 2014, then the Cubs would adjust the Plan and move Kris Bryant to RF. If Olt and Edwards work out as major league talent, then the trade would have been deemed very good. If not, since the Cubs were not going to re-sign Garza, it was a mere shuffling of the deck.
The acquisition of Olt does slow down the need for Bryant to be part of the 2014 Cub roster. He fills the hole at third base. Bryant is one the most major league ready draft choice of the Cubs have had in many years. If the Cubs will convert him to the outfield, they can hold him back in the minors under the guise of needed development, such as starting him in rookie league instead of Class AA. This will add one or two years of promotional steps until Bryant makes the Cubs roster.
Fans must temper their buy-in of the Plan by the quick start of Junior Lake this week. Lake was a Hendry selection. His promotion has been moved along quickly because of injuries to the many journeymen outfielders the current front office have signed to fill outfield spots. We do not know whether Lake is actually part of the current rebuilding plan. He is getting his show case now, just as Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters did late last year.
But the fans like the idea of the Cubs stockpiling so many new Class A players in the system. The problem with a bottom heavy system is that it takes more time to develop and promote that talent under the current goal levels set by the Cubs management. In addition, one can only realistically project only 6 minor leaguers in the any ball club system to make it to the major leagues as a starter. The Cubs actually need to acquire more major league ready and Class AAA ball players to balance their minor league system.
The next part of the Plan is to trade off more major league roster pieces before the trade deadline. Players mentioned to be part of the trade market include Alfonso Soriano, Kevin Gregg, and David DeJesus.
