It was mildly surprising that the Astros took pitcher Mark Appel as the number one pick. Appel was the consensus number one last season, but he wanted more than first position slot money to sign. So he slid down to the Pirates, who could not sign him. Before the draft, his agent Scott Boras was making noise about the leverage the senior still had if he slid down the board. Last year, Houston drafted a high school player below slot and used that extra money to overpay later picks who were perceived to have had signability issues (i.e. money demands). But the choice of Appel does make some marketing sense to the Astros, since Appel is from Houston. It is clear that the Astros had to have agreed on a bonus number with Appel before the pick was announced in order to save face.
That left the Cubs with a choice between college pitcher Jonathan Gray or power third baseman Kris Bryant. Many pundits thought the Cubs would pick Gray (even over Appel). Most pundits thought the Cubs would pick the best available pitcher. Gray's 2013 season stats were very good:
2013 Stats: GS: 16, W-L: 10-2, ERA: 1.59, IP: 119.0, ER: 21, BB: 22, K: 138, AVG: .188
But Bryant's offense numbers were far superior to anyone else in college baseball:
2013 Stats: G: 58, R: 78, H: 73, 2B: 13, HR: 31, RBI: 62, AVG: .340, OBP: .500, SLG: .860
The debate comes down to a philosophical and empirical question. How can you compare a top line pitching prospect to a top line hitting prospect. If you go backward to the basic element of the game itself, a top line pitcher is expected to pitch 210 innings per season, or be responsible for 630 outs. That is 14.4% of a team's total season out number. A top line batter is expected to drive in 100 runs per season. The world champion Giants scored 718 runs in 2012. That would equate to about 13.9% of total runs scored. In 2012, the Cubs only scored 613 runs. Adding a run producer would get the team closer to the Giants' run total.
So it comes down to a fairly even analysis. An top line pitcher is expected to get around 14% of the outs while a top line hitter is expected to generate approximately 14% of the total team runs.
Then there is debate on who is more valuable. A top line pitcher who averages 7 IP per quality start can keep a team's bullpen fresh, stop losing streaks and dominate short series. However, he only gets the ball 30-33 games per season. A starter fielder could be expected to play 150-160 games per year, or five times the amount of actual on field time as a starter.
There is a philosophical principle that some scouts have that pitching wins championships. It is said that good pitching will eliminate good hitting. On the other hand, in order to win a team needs to generate enough offense to score runs, even against good pitching.
The final review is that it is easier to project field position players than with pitchers. Position players have a larger body of work to look at; their fielding and batting mechanics are easily understood. Pitchers are harder to project because of the hidden wear and tear on their arm and shoulder mechanics. Pitchers are more suspect to injury during development.
In the end, I tend to fall on the side of picking a position player (especially one at an organizational need) over a projected "star" pitching candidate.
The Cubs were in the almost the same position during the Mark Prior selection. Prior was the "can't miss" kid, the "most major league ready" prospect in the draft. Prior was expected to be the No. 1 pick, but the Twins instead selected Joe Mauer. Prior "fell" to the Cubs. This year, it seems that vibe has been reversed in that the Cubs took a prized hitting prospect over a stud pitcher.
But the story is not over quite yet. Bryant was the best selection for the Cubs. Now the Cubs organization needs not to screw it up. Jason McLeod told the media that Bryant projects as a third baseman and that is the position he will play. That needs to remain true. A player's comfort and routine helps with the transition to professional ball. Too many teams are moving players from position to position early in their development, which in many ways hinders the player who does not know what the organization wants of him. If the Cubs sign Bryant quickly, they should assign him to Double A Tennessee for the rest of the summer to get his feet wet. They should not mess with his swing mechanics. They should let him continue to play ball like he has done at San Diego.
Showing posts with label Gray. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gray. Show all posts
June 7, 2013
April 19, 2013
JUNE DRAFT CRYSTAL BALL
The pundits are beginning in earnest to gear up for baseball's June draft. Now that the new CBA has limited the amount of money teams can spend on signing amateur and international talent, it becomes more critical than ever to select the right player at the right price.
The Cubs have the second overall pick in the draft. The Astros have the first selection.
ESPN's Keith Law believes that Stanford's Mark Appel and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray are the top two pitchers in this year's draft. The Astros attempted to negotiate with Appel before the 2012 draft, but Appel wanted above slot bonus money. Instead, the Astros used the top pick to draft a high school player then overspend on their next two selections, in effect, giving the Astros three first round talents for the price of one.
The Cubs Theo Epstein was used to overspending without any caps when he was in Boston. That franchise believed that money can pave over mistakes. But the fans are looking for results not talk. Drafting starting pitchers is like drafting touted quarterbacks in the NFL: you never can tell. The Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson a few years ago with their top pick, and now Simpson is not in baseball. He did not pitch at all last season. He was an overreach and a bust.
So many columnists believe that Appel is the best player available, it makes one to pause. As a team, are you going to overpay for a pitcher or try to get more balance in the early rounds? Appel is out of options as he cannot go back to college. In theory he could play internationally, but the money and programs would not be the same as American baseball. He could sit out a year then try to sign with another club, but that would be a diva move that most teams would want to avoid. However, there was one report that Appel still has some "leverage" in that any team that drafts him must have a deal in place otherwise they can't "over slot" their following selections because the penalty for overspending is losing valuable picks next year. But logically, a team can tell any first round draft choice "this is what we are paying, take it or leave it." If the player goes unsigned, the team gets a compensation pick next year. So it would appear Appel will have little leverage.
But in pro sports, money equals respect and some team will try to calm the waters and give him some "respect" and overslot him. But that does not mean Appel will be happy.
So if Houston passes on Appel, then he falls to the Cubs. And this is where it gets interesting. Though the Cubs are not as bad as the Astros, they are close. Epstein has been bellowing that he inherited a minor league system devoid of talent. He has no pitching prospects in the high minors. So scouts believe the Cubs must pick the best available starter and pray for Strasburg type immediate returns.
That would be if the Cubs want to win now. But the Cubs don't want to win now. The Cubs want to pare back the payroll to help pay for the Wrigley Field entertainment complex. The projection for having a competitive, play-off caliber team has now moved out to 2015 and beyond.
It was reported that the Cubs had their short list of players whittled down to six. The consensus speculation is Appel, Gray, college LHP Sean Manaea, high school outfielders, Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows. The sixth could be collegiate pitching prospect Ryne Stanek, or San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.
The Cubs have enough new outfielders in their system for now to draft a high school player. As we posted before, Bryant has the best power bat in the draft. He also would fill an immediate critical need at third base. The other potential third base first round talent is North Carolina's Colin Moran, who has the most fluid, natural swing in the draft according to some scouting services.
My call is that the Cubs draft Bryant to address the needs at third and taking a power bat. The Cubs drafted 17 pitchers in last year's draft so if you trust Epstein and Hoyer's talent evaluation judgment, then other critical areas need to be addressed now. Also, for many scouts, projecting position players is easier than projecting pitchers since there are more variables that can go wrong with a pitching prospect.
ESPN's Keith Law believes that Stanford's Mark Appel and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray are the top two pitchers in this year's draft. The Astros attempted to negotiate with Appel before the 2012 draft, but Appel wanted above slot bonus money. Instead, the Astros used the top pick to draft a high school player then overspend on their next two selections, in effect, giving the Astros three first round talents for the price of one.
The Cubs Theo Epstein was used to overspending without any caps when he was in Boston. That franchise believed that money can pave over mistakes. But the fans are looking for results not talk. Drafting starting pitchers is like drafting touted quarterbacks in the NFL: you never can tell. The Cubs drafted Hayden Simpson a few years ago with their top pick, and now Simpson is not in baseball. He did not pitch at all last season. He was an overreach and a bust.
So many columnists believe that Appel is the best player available, it makes one to pause. As a team, are you going to overpay for a pitcher or try to get more balance in the early rounds? Appel is out of options as he cannot go back to college. In theory he could play internationally, but the money and programs would not be the same as American baseball. He could sit out a year then try to sign with another club, but that would be a diva move that most teams would want to avoid. However, there was one report that Appel still has some "leverage" in that any team that drafts him must have a deal in place otherwise they can't "over slot" their following selections because the penalty for overspending is losing valuable picks next year. But logically, a team can tell any first round draft choice "this is what we are paying, take it or leave it." If the player goes unsigned, the team gets a compensation pick next year. So it would appear Appel will have little leverage.
But in pro sports, money equals respect and some team will try to calm the waters and give him some "respect" and overslot him. But that does not mean Appel will be happy.
So if Houston passes on Appel, then he falls to the Cubs. And this is where it gets interesting. Though the Cubs are not as bad as the Astros, they are close. Epstein has been bellowing that he inherited a minor league system devoid of talent. He has no pitching prospects in the high minors. So scouts believe the Cubs must pick the best available starter and pray for Strasburg type immediate returns.
That would be if the Cubs want to win now. But the Cubs don't want to win now. The Cubs want to pare back the payroll to help pay for the Wrigley Field entertainment complex. The projection for having a competitive, play-off caliber team has now moved out to 2015 and beyond.
It was reported that the Cubs had their short list of players whittled down to six. The consensus speculation is Appel, Gray, college LHP Sean Manaea, high school outfielders, Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows. The sixth could be collegiate pitching prospect Ryne Stanek, or San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant.
The Cubs have enough new outfielders in their system for now to draft a high school player. As we posted before, Bryant has the best power bat in the draft. He also would fill an immediate critical need at third base. The other potential third base first round talent is North Carolina's Colin Moran, who has the most fluid, natural swing in the draft according to some scouting services.
My call is that the Cubs draft Bryant to address the needs at third and taking a power bat. The Cubs drafted 17 pitchers in last year's draft so if you trust Epstein and Hoyer's talent evaluation judgment, then other critical areas need to be addressed now. Also, for many scouts, projecting position players is easier than projecting pitchers since there are more variables that can go wrong with a pitching prospect.
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