BACK TO THE SAME BUSINESS

After the happy Jon Lester press conference, the Cubs were back to their old tricks of acquiring damaged pitchers with the hopes of miracle rebirths.

The Cubs have signed former Cardinal pitcher Jason Motte to a one year, $4.5 million (with additional incentives).  Motte, a 32-year-old righty had a nice run with the Cardinals as one of the game’s better back-end relievers. Over 2010-12, he tossed 192 1/3 innings of 2.43 ERA ball with 9.5 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9. He moved into the team’s closer role in 2012, locking down a league-leading 42 games.

But  Motte was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. A long recovery period kept him out until the 2014 season, when he also missed time with a lower back issue. All said, Motte only appeared for 25 innings last year, struggling to a 4.68 ERA with 6.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.

MLBTR notes that  ERA estimators were down on Motte’s work last season: FIP (6.49), xFIP (4.58), and SIERA (4.25) all saw Motte as a below-average contributor. He was hurt significantly by the long ball, giving up a 20.0% HR/FB rate and a whopping 2.52 HR/9 that ranked second to worst in all of baseball among relievers who threw at least 20 frames.

It seems like an expensive insurance policy if Hector Rondon fails in the closer role in 2015.

The Cub bullpen was the real bright spot last year with Rondon, Strop, Ramirez, Schlitter, Parker and Grimm. But since Ricketts has opened the money tap, the baseball ops guys are willing to spend.

BEST OFF SEASON SO FAR

You have to give the White Sox their due.

They had done an analysis of deficiencies on their 2014 roster, and spent this off-season curing those ills.

They have come away with an interesting mix of players who will contribute immediately.

Adam LaRouche fills a hole at 1B/DH, and puts less pressure on Jose Abreu's sophomore season.

Melky Cabrera solves the LF production issues, and puts Viciedo squarely on the trade block (probably for more pitching depth).

The bullpen issues have been partially solved by signing closer David Robertson, Zach Duke and trading for Dan Jennings.

Jeff Samardzija breaks up the lefty rotation with a RHP at #2 behind Sale. The 2015 rotation appears to be the best in the AL Central (since the Tigers seem hell bent on trading away starters). The rotation of Sale, Samardzija, Quintana, Rodon and Danks is the best since the WS champion club.

There is still one area on the shopping list to upgrade: catcher. Tyler Flowers may be a good defensive catcher, but his offensive numbers are poor.

There will be an open competition for second base starter, but the White Sox have enough talented middle infielders to hold that position.

RULE 5 RESULTS

At the end of the Winter Meetings, MLB held the annual Rule 5 draft, which eligible players not protected on 40 man rosters could be selected for full major league service in 2015. A player selected must stay on his team's 25 man roster for the entire year, or be sent back to the original club.

The Cubs lost three players in the draft process. The White Sox lost two players.

What is quite surprising is that the Cubs picked Rockie shortstop Taylor Featherston in the major league phase, putting him on the 25 man roster. Featherston, 25, has never played above Class AA ball. He hit .260, 16 HR, 57 RBI last season. He has some power, and can play three infield positions (SS, 2B, 3B) so he projects as the 25th man, a utility infielder. Afterward, the Cubs traded him to the Angels for cash considerations.

ROUND 1

1. Arizona Diamondbacks: C Oscar Hernandez, Rays
2. Colorado Rockies: IF Mark Canha, Marlins
3. Texas Rangers: OF Delino DeShields Jr., Astros
4. Houston Astros: RHP Jason Garcia, Red Sox
5. Minnesota Twins: RHP J.R. Graham, Braves
6. Boston Red Sox: RHP Jandel Gustave, Astros
7. Chicago Cubs: SS Taylor Featherston, Rockies
8. Philadelphia Phillies: IF David Herrera, Rangers
9. Miami Marlins: LHP Andrew McKirahan, Cubs
10. New York Mets: LHP Sean Gilmartin, Twins
11. Atlanta Braves: RHP Daniel Winkler, Rockies
12. Seattle Mariners: LHP David Rollins, Astros
13. Baltimore Orioles: RHP Logan Verrett, Mets

ROUND 2
14. Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Andrew Oliver, Pirates

TRIPLE-A PHASE
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Timothy Crabbe, Reds
2. Colorado Rockies: RHP Kyle Simon, Phillies
3. Texas Rangers: 1B Roderick Shoulders, Cubs
4. Houston Astros: C Luis Flores, Cubs
5. Minnesota Twins: RHP Greg Peavey, Mets
6. Chicago White Sox: RHP Peter Tago, Rockies
7. Chicago Cubs: OF Ariel Ovando, Astros
8. Cincinnati Reds: C Camden Maron, Mets
9. Miami Marlins: LHP Matthew Tomshaw, Twins
10. San Diego Padres: SS Juan Gamboa, Mets
11. Tampa Bay Rays: RF Luis Urena, Pirates
12. Atlanta Braves: C Steven Rodriguez, D-backs
13. Cleveland Indians: RHP Delvy Francisco, Phillies
14. San Francisco Giants: RHP Ramon Del Orbe, Marlins
15. Detroit Tigers: RHP Jheyson Manzueta, Marlins
16. St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Tyler Waldron, Pirates
17. Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Peter Lavin, Phillies
18. Baltimore Orioles: OF Sean Halton, Brewers
19. Los Angeles Angels: IF Chris Curley, White Sox
20. Texas Rangers: SS Hiram Martinez, Marlins
21. Cincinnati Reds: RHP Euclides Leyer, White Sox
22. Miami Marlins: 1B Harold Riggins, Reds
23. Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Michael O'Brien, Orioles
24. San Francisco Giants: CF Brett Jackson, D-backs
25. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Alexander Santana, Orioles
26. Los Angeles Angels: SS Pedro Ruiz, D-backs
27. Miami Marlins: LHP Alexander Burgos, Tigers
28. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Randy Fontanez, Mets
29. Los Angeles Angels: RF Kentrail Davis, Brewers
30. Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Nathan Samson, D-backs

DODGING BULLETS

For teams bidding for Jon Lester, it was disappointing when he signed with the Cubs.

However, tying up millions of dollars long term on a 31 year old pitcher can be a curse.

Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci wrote a story about the Lester sweepstakes and made the following two declarations:

1) "Whichever team winds up winning the bidding for Jon Lester will get a very good pitcher and a very bad contract."

2) "It's foolish to give a pitcher in the Testing Era a six- or seven-year contract that begins with his age-31 season. In fact, it's so foolish it's never been done before."

Verducci provided statistics to defend his claims.

Although the Giants clearly wanted Lester, Comcast SanFran asked the question of whether the team possibly dodged a bullet?

"Oh I totally agree," TV analyst Mike Krukow said. "You know how I feel about six-, seven-year contracts for pitchers, I just don't think they are realistic ... It's a roll of the dice. I just don't like it ... I don't think that it makes that much sense.

"But you know what, it's a roll of the dice, total roll of the dice. You're betting on a six-year deal to get him for the first four. If you get him for the last two that's a benefit. I don't think anybody giving a contract of six years or more to anybody 30 years of age or older is planning on the back end of that contract. I just don't think they are.

"So I do agree that in a way the Giants did dodge a little bit of a bullet there, but still, it's disappointing."

A PUZZLING BAD TRADE

The Cubs traded two minor league players for Diamondback catcher Miguel Montero. Class A pitchers Zack Godley and Jeferson Mejia go to Arizona in the deal.

Godley is a 24-year-old righty who has yet to move past the High-A level in Chicago’s system. Working at Daytona last year, he put up a 3.57 ERA in 40 1/3 frames with 11.6 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9.
Mejia, 20, reached Rookie ball last year after being inked by the Cubs on July 2 of 2013. As Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote,  the 6’7 prospect had been adding weight and fastball velocity at the time of his signing. He ultimately went for a $850K bonus. Mejia features a low-90s heater with a good change and decent curve. Meija was the 17th ranked Cubs prospect. Working mostly as a reliever, he threw to a 2.48 ERA with 10.1 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9 in 40 innings last year.

Montero, a left-handed hitter, has three years and $40 million left on his deal. The 31-year-old has had two down years after establishing himself as one of the best-hitting backstops in the game. Last year, he slashed .243/.329/.370 with 13 home runs in 560 plate appearances. There have been prior reports that Montero is not a good clubhouse guy.

It makes little sense for the Cubs to make this trade. Welington Castillo had a decent year behind the plate. In fact, his numbers are nearly the same as Montero's: Castillo  posted two straight above-average years of offensive production before stepping back slightly in 2014. He slashed .237/.296/.389 last year, with a career-best 13 home runs in 417 plate appearances. So Castillo was generally improving while Montero has been regressing badly.

Over the past two seasons, Montero has accumulated only 1.2 WAR while at the same time, Castillo has accumulated 6.3 WAR. 

In addition, Castillo, 27,  is under team control for another three years. He was going to make only $2.1 million in 2015, much less than Montero.

If the Cubs really wanted to "upgrade" their catching position, the trade for Dioner Navarro would have made more sense. Navarro is out of a starting job because the Jays signed Russell Martin. Navarro had a heady 2014: .274 BA, 12 HR, 69 RBI, 2.3 WAR.

After the deal, Jeff Passon of Yahoo Sports reports that the Cubs will be actively shopping Castillo. Again, that also makes no sense since a) the Cubs have no other catcher on the major league roster; b) prospect Kyle Schwarber is still two years away; and c) if Montero is a bust, the team has no Plan B. But the Cubs seem to be content with no Plan Bs.

Why catching so suddenly the burr under the front office saddle is a mystery, considering the greater weaknesses in left field, center field, and starting pitching.

A SURPRISE MOVE

The Cubs went against conventional wisdom and signed the best free agent on the market. The Cubs clearly overpaid for Jon Lester, and made a move prior to the team is ready to win the division. Lester takes the role of Jeff Samardzija, the opening day starter (and possibly the pitcher with the least run support).

By many reports, the Red Sox botched their dealings with Lester. First, the team insulted him last year with a weak $70 million/3 year extension offer. Second, the team traded Lester to Oakland, but told the press that the team wanted Lester back. You don't trade away somebody you really want. Third, the Red Sox final offer was $20 million short of the Cubs (also meaning that the Cubs overpaid the market for Lester).

The Giants GM said he was not given a chance to give his best or final offer. This means that Lester preferred to not be on the West Coast (he lives in Atlanta). But in the end, respect equals money and the Cubs flashed the most green. This sudden spending spree may be a public relations reaction to what the White Sox had accomplished in the off-season: adding players like Samardzija, LaRouche, Robertson, Duke. It would be hard to sell tickets if the White Sox are charging to the top of the AL Central.

The $15 million vesting option for Year 7 of the deal should be no problem if the Cubs in 2020 get their golden Cub channel television deal (like the Dodgers). But since the Cubs still don't even have a local TV in place, the dramatic change in cable and entertainment distribution and the Dodgers disaster of unable to sell their channel to distributors, the Cubs are banking on money the team may never get.

Lester will receive six years and $155 million, Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports reports.  The contract will make Lester one of baseball’s richest pitchers, with an average annual value of $25.8 million, that ranks just ahead of Detroit Tiger Justin Verlander's  $25.7 million/year but behind only Clayton Kershaw's  $30.7 million.

Despite what Cubs management says, the team is still not close to winning a pennant.

Lester will lead a staff of starters that breaks down as follows:
1. LHP Lester
2. RHP Hammel
3. RHP Arrieta
4. RHP Hendrick
5. LHP Wada

The two pitchers immediately out of the rotation are Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson. Jackson has a bad contract, but there has been some reported interest in other teams, like Atlanta, who would swap bad deals. A Brave deal Jackson for B.J. Upton has the potential to upgrade LF over a Coghlan/Ruggiano platoon if Upton's two year funk can be corrected. Wood's 2014 slide is of some concern, which is why Wada was re-signed for 2015.

Lester pitched for Boston and Oakland last year, compiling a 16-11 record, 2.46 ERA, 1.102 WHIP and 4.6 WAR. In his 9 seasons, Lester is 116-67, 3.58 ERA, 32.6 WAR.

From a valuation standpoint, Lester's current WAR equates to $23 million/ year. If one projects out Lester, who will be 31, over the 6 seasons with a 10 percent decline in effectiveness, it is expected that he will contribute another 21.52 WAR, which would put the contract value of the deal at $107.6 million. Therefore, the Cubs paid a 44 percent premium over the expected value of Lester in the next 6 years.

In order for the Lester deal to work out, the Cubs need to score more runs. A lot more runs. This will push the team to promote Kris Bryant earlier than expected, which should appease the fans.

ON THE MOVE

The White Sox have been making major moves this off-season. Two glaring needs have suddenly been met: right handed starter and bullpen closer.

The White Sox traded for ex-Cub Jeff Samardzija, sending the A's utility infielder Marcus Semien, right hander Chris Bassitt and a player to be named later. This was less than Oakland's initial asking price which included Alexi Ramirez and prospect Tim Anderson. Samardzija trade is a one-year rental since he really wants to explore free agency, his one and only time to get such a huge contract. However, as a Chicago icon, the Shark may be convinced to stay with the White Sox if things go well in 2015.

The trade for Samardzija does not upset the White Sox top prospects or starting line up.
Samardzija moved into the Cubs' rotation in 2012 and has gone 26-42 as a starter with a 3.86 ERA. He went a combined 7-13 last season with a 2.99 ERA with both the Cubs and A's. He was 5-6 in 16 starts in the American League, posting a 3.14 ERA. He is expected to make between $9 million and $10 million in 2015, his final year of arbitration eligibility.

The White Sox rotation gets seriously deep with this trade. Chris Sale, Samardzija, Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon and John Danks.

In addition, the White Sox signed former Yankee closer, David Robertson, to a 4 year, $46 million deal. Roberston went 4-5 with 39 saves and a 3.08 ERA after taking over the closer role in New York. The 29-year old has a 2.81 ERA over seven seasons.

The Yankees made a one-year qualifying offer of $15.3 million to Robertson for 2015, ensuring them draft-pick compensation if he signs with another team. Because the White Sox had among the top 10 initial picks in next year's amateur draft, they lose a second-round selection next June rather than their first-round choice, which is eighth overall. The Yankees receive an extra pick between the first and second rounds.

The White Sox had a 4.28 ERA from their bullpen this past season, 28th in baseball and only better than the Rockies and Astros.  The club's combined 36 saves were better than just five other major league teams. By adding Robertson and Zach Duke, the White Sox are putting veteran pitching on the back end of the pen. Nate Jones is expected to be back in late July, 2015.

No White Sox fan can complain that their team has not been making serious moves to win in 2015.

UPDATE: The deal included 6 players; with the Sox sending catcher Josh Phelgley to Oakland and the A's sending a Class A relief pitcher.