Joe Maddon decided to "save" Dan Haren for Sunday's game. So he utilized a "bullpen" game for Saturday's contest. The weather was iffy, so he decided not to waste a starter with a potential rain delay. And with another double header up against Pittsburgh, he wanted to keep Arrieta and Lester available for that series. Those are all valid reasons.
But how he went about executing his plan was debatable.
The Cubs have 34 players on the roster, including a stretched out starter in Wada and long reliever in Richard. Either of those two could have started the game and pitch 3 or more innings. But Maddon decided to go with ex-starter Wood, then with Cahill (a former starter). That seemed to work well, until Maddon replaced Cahill with Grimm. Grimm is too much like Cahill. Richard had been warming up, so I thought at the time Richard would have been a better choice (lefty-righty then lefty). Grimm got wild and hammered around and the bullpen could not right the game.
In retrospect, it probably would have been better to start Wada, and if he had rust, then go Wood, Cahill, Richard to get to the back of the pen.
Maybe Maddon was not concerned since the Phils were playing their AAA team for most of the series. But a split series against the Phils feels like a major loss this late in the season. The Giants have now pulled within 7.5 games of the Cubs in the wild card. Plus, the time was to pounce on the struggling Cardinals.
September 14, 2015
September 12, 2015
LOTTERY TRAP
The Cubs are holding a "lottery" for 2015 playoff tickets.
The Cubs have a 99 percent chance of making the wild card play in game.
The Cubs have decided to have a lottery for post season tickets. The lottery page screen:
There are a couple points to be made:
1. Despite what the Cubs marketing department has said, the team did not sell enough season ticket packages to have a built in base for all the post-season tickets. The league and opposing team are given a large block of playoff tickets to give to player families, league staff and baseball national sponsors. It is more probable than not that the Cubs lost many season ticket holders this year because of three years of bad teams at high prices and the bleachers being closed for construction early in the season.
2. The lottery page is a blatant data mining operation. If it was a pure lottery, none of the questions is relevant for your chances to "win" the ability to purchase nose bleed seats at inflated prices. If the Cubs are trying to weed out the die hard fan from the scalper, then just open the ticket windows at 6 a.m. one morning and see the true die hards line up. The team has not announced how many tickets are actually available for each playoff game, so thousands of people may be signing up with no chance of getting a ticket. But in order to feed off the high expectations of the fan base, the team is milking their fans to get valuable data to use or re-sell on the secondary information market.
The Cubs have a 99 percent chance of making the wild card play in game.
The Cubs have decided to have a lottery for post season tickets. The lottery page screen:
1. Despite what the Cubs marketing department has said, the team did not sell enough season ticket packages to have a built in base for all the post-season tickets. The league and opposing team are given a large block of playoff tickets to give to player families, league staff and baseball national sponsors. It is more probable than not that the Cubs lost many season ticket holders this year because of three years of bad teams at high prices and the bleachers being closed for construction early in the season.
2. The lottery page is a blatant data mining operation. If it was a pure lottery, none of the questions is relevant for your chances to "win" the ability to purchase nose bleed seats at inflated prices. If the Cubs are trying to weed out the die hard fan from the scalper, then just open the ticket windows at 6 a.m. one morning and see the true die hards line up. The team has not announced how many tickets are actually available for each playoff game, so thousands of people may be signing up with no chance of getting a ticket. But in order to feed off the high expectations of the fan base, the team is milking their fans to get valuable data to use or re-sell on the secondary information market.
September 11, 2015
AMARO OUT
MLBTR reported that he Phillies announced they will not extend the contract
of general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. According to a team press release,
assistant GM Scott Proefrock will take over as interim GM, effective
immediately.
“It’s never an easy decision to make a change,” said president-to-be Andy MacPhail in the press release. “Ruben has had a direct impact on some of the best years in the team’s history. He helped to create some great memories for Phillies fans with his accomplishments, but in order to return to a top-contending club, we believe this is the right thing to do as we continue the rebuilding process.”
The writing has been on the wall for quite some time that Amaro’s days as GM were numbered. It’s been widely expected that in the wake of the team’s collapse over the past four seasons, MacPhail would seek to hire a new GM to guide the Phillies — possibly one that will bring a stronger commitment to analytics to the organization.
Amaro, 50, has been the Phillies’ general manager since the 2008 offseason, when he succeeded Pat Gillick. The Phillies made a World Series run in Amaro’s first full year as GM, ultimately coming up short to the Yankees, and went on to reach the postseason in the 2010 and 2011 campaigns as well. However, a number of the trades made by Amaro that were aimed at keeping the team in contention served, instead, to only deplete the farm system while failing to pay significant on-field dividends.
This is the second major organizational move since MacPhail was hired. Ryne Sandberg abruptly resigned from field manager position.
With the Phillies now in the hunt for a GM, that creates five such openings around the league. The Angels, Mariners, Red Sox and Brewers are all on the hunt for new general managers as well, meaning there will be a significant amount of baseball operations changes in the coming months. Not only will each team employ a new GM, but those five newly minted executives will undoubtedly have some changes in store for the baseball operations departments and the field staffs which they’ll inherit upon taking their new roles.
The Cubs Jed Hoyer is believed to be high on the GM candidate lists.
“It’s never an easy decision to make a change,” said president-to-be Andy MacPhail in the press release. “Ruben has had a direct impact on some of the best years in the team’s history. He helped to create some great memories for Phillies fans with his accomplishments, but in order to return to a top-contending club, we believe this is the right thing to do as we continue the rebuilding process.”
The writing has been on the wall for quite some time that Amaro’s days as GM were numbered. It’s been widely expected that in the wake of the team’s collapse over the past four seasons, MacPhail would seek to hire a new GM to guide the Phillies — possibly one that will bring a stronger commitment to analytics to the organization.
Amaro, 50, has been the Phillies’ general manager since the 2008 offseason, when he succeeded Pat Gillick. The Phillies made a World Series run in Amaro’s first full year as GM, ultimately coming up short to the Yankees, and went on to reach the postseason in the 2010 and 2011 campaigns as well. However, a number of the trades made by Amaro that were aimed at keeping the team in contention served, instead, to only deplete the farm system while failing to pay significant on-field dividends.
This is the second major organizational move since MacPhail was hired. Ryne Sandberg abruptly resigned from field manager position.
With the Phillies now in the hunt for a GM, that creates five such openings around the league. The Angels, Mariners, Red Sox and Brewers are all on the hunt for new general managers as well, meaning there will be a significant amount of baseball operations changes in the coming months. Not only will each team employ a new GM, but those five newly minted executives will undoubtedly have some changes in store for the baseball operations departments and the field staffs which they’ll inherit upon taking their new roles.
The Cubs Jed Hoyer is believed to be high on the GM candidate lists.
September 8, 2015
September 3, 2015
CONCERNS
When they post the Cubs lineup, one has to notice that the team batting average is sinking toward a collective .248.
Yes, there are flashes like Bryant's three hit game or Schwarber hitting a late inning home run.
But there is not a .300 starter in the lineup. That is a major concern.
When playoff pressure ramps up, pitchers can use it against hitters. That is why you rarely see blow-out playoff games.
Through 131 games:
4981 PA
4419 AB
538 Runs scored
1066 Hits
137 HR
511 RBI
80 SB
.241 BA
.318 OBP
.393 SLG
15.3 WAR
In this stretch run, pitching, defense and timely hitting will be the keys.
Besides Arrieta and Lester, the rest of the rotation is meh. Hammels has been pulled quickly in his last three starts and Haren is below par. Wada will probably take his place in the rotation. Defense is a concern with so many players not playing their natural position (Coghlan and Castro at second; Schwarber in LF, Bryant in RF). Baez playing second could help, but he looks like his old K-Machine at the plate.
Yes, there are flashes like Bryant's three hit game or Schwarber hitting a late inning home run.
But there is not a .300 starter in the lineup. That is a major concern.
When playoff pressure ramps up, pitchers can use it against hitters. That is why you rarely see blow-out playoff games.
Through 131 games:
4981 PA
4419 AB
538 Runs scored
1066 Hits
137 HR
511 RBI
80 SB
.241 BA
.318 OBP
.393 SLG
15.3 WAR
In this stretch run, pitching, defense and timely hitting will be the keys.
Besides Arrieta and Lester, the rest of the rotation is meh. Hammels has been pulled quickly in his last three starts and Haren is below par. Wada will probably take his place in the rotation. Defense is a concern with so many players not playing their natural position (Coghlan and Castro at second; Schwarber in LF, Bryant in RF). Baez playing second could help, but he looks like his old K-Machine at the plate.
September 2, 2015
BETTER THAN PREDICTED
I predicted in spring training that the Cubs would win 74 games. After three lackluster seasons of bad, I assumed the front office would keep the slow pace of prospect development down on the farm. Kris Bryant would have to get 500 AB in AAA this season. Addison Russell would split time between AA and AAA. Kyle Schwarber would learn to catch a full season in the minors.
So, many people thought the Cubs would scrub through 2015 with another journeyman roster of place holders.
Yes, the Cubs did reach the predicted 74 wins mark.
But there is still a month to go in the season.
The team is still 5.5 games ahead of the Giants for the wild card berth. With 4.5 weeks to go, it is doubtful that the Giants will catch the Cubs (based on the formula a team realistically can shave one game per week).
So the Cubs exceeded expectations. They will get the benefit of an expanded wild card to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2008. They have a real "ace" starter in Jake Arrieta to throw that elimination game in Pittsburgh. People are excited for the Cubs. Cubbernaut!!
A few old timers still think there is going to be a "Cubbie occurrence" in September. The doomslayers come out when the team loses four in a row (even after winning five in a row). If the Cubs go .500 for the next 32 games, the club reaches 90 wins (a 21.6 percent improvement over the spring training prediction).
Bryant, Russell and Schwarber have all made in impact on the team. All of them have had their ups and downs which is expected of rookies. How they make adjustments and learn to be professionals is what the Maddon magic is all about. If Maddon can hold together the club with the pressures of September (he already started by managing games in August like their were short playoff series games), then the Cubs will continue to exceed expectations.
So, many people thought the Cubs would scrub through 2015 with another journeyman roster of place holders.
Yes, the Cubs did reach the predicted 74 wins mark.
But there is still a month to go in the season.
The team is still 5.5 games ahead of the Giants for the wild card berth. With 4.5 weeks to go, it is doubtful that the Giants will catch the Cubs (based on the formula a team realistically can shave one game per week).
So the Cubs exceeded expectations. They will get the benefit of an expanded wild card to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2008. They have a real "ace" starter in Jake Arrieta to throw that elimination game in Pittsburgh. People are excited for the Cubs. Cubbernaut!!
A few old timers still think there is going to be a "Cubbie occurrence" in September. The doomslayers come out when the team loses four in a row (even after winning five in a row). If the Cubs go .500 for the next 32 games, the club reaches 90 wins (a 21.6 percent improvement over the spring training prediction).
Bryant, Russell and Schwarber have all made in impact on the team. All of them have had their ups and downs which is expected of rookies. How they make adjustments and learn to be professionals is what the Maddon magic is all about. If Maddon can hold together the club with the pressures of September (he already started by managing games in August like their were short playoff series games), then the Cubs will continue to exceed expectations.
September 1, 2015
ACTION JACKSON
The Cubs made a playoff roster move at the deadline.
The Cubs acquired outfielder Austin Jackson and a cash consideration from the Seattle Mariners for a player to be named later and an international signing bonus slot.
Jackson had been hitting .272 with eight homers, 18 doubles, 38 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, 46 runs scored and a .699 OPS in 107 games for Seattle. He bats right-handed and plays center field. He is 28 and in position to become a free agent after this season.
“I’ve seen him for a long time in the American League,” Joe Maddon said. “When he starts swinging the bat well, he’s very productive. A fine outfielder, good baserunner, kind of a complete player. So to be able to pick him up right now, I think we’re very fortunate.”
To make room for Jackson on the 40-man roster, the Cubs designated infielder Mike Olt for assignment.
Jackson is an upgrade on the bench. He gives Maddon a speed option and more platoon moves.
Maddon, with the roster expansion today, will start to yank pitchers quicker. (Last night he could have removed Kyle Hendricks in a jam, but left him in. It cost the Cubs runs.)
Maddon may start an odd play-off moves/exhibition game hybrid managing style. I assume he will make more early game moves on the fly like he did last night moving players into new or unfamiliar positions like Starlin Castro at second (3 errors last night) or Tommy LaStella playing third with Kris Bryant in right field.
It is better to keep Bryant at third and play Jackson in RF.
Maddon will have to rest some of his young players in the heat of the pennant chase this month. Kyle Schwarber looked rusty behind the plate after patrolling left field in August. But you also need to put your players in the best position to succeed so leaving players at their natural position is a key in September play off run.
The Cubs acquired outfielder Austin Jackson and a cash consideration from the Seattle Mariners for a player to be named later and an international signing bonus slot.
Jackson had been hitting .272 with eight homers, 18 doubles, 38 RBIs, 15 stolen bases, 46 runs scored and a .699 OPS in 107 games for Seattle. He bats right-handed and plays center field. He is 28 and in position to become a free agent after this season.
“I’ve seen him for a long time in the American League,” Joe Maddon said. “When he starts swinging the bat well, he’s very productive. A fine outfielder, good baserunner, kind of a complete player. So to be able to pick him up right now, I think we’re very fortunate.”
To make room for Jackson on the 40-man roster, the Cubs designated infielder Mike Olt for assignment.
Jackson is an upgrade on the bench. He gives Maddon a speed option and more platoon moves.
Maddon, with the roster expansion today, will start to yank pitchers quicker. (Last night he could have removed Kyle Hendricks in a jam, but left him in. It cost the Cubs runs.)
Maddon may start an odd play-off moves/exhibition game hybrid managing style. I assume he will make more early game moves on the fly like he did last night moving players into new or unfamiliar positions like Starlin Castro at second (3 errors last night) or Tommy LaStella playing third with Kris Bryant in right field.
It is better to keep Bryant at third and play Jackson in RF.
Maddon will have to rest some of his young players in the heat of the pennant chase this month. Kyle Schwarber looked rusty behind the plate after patrolling left field in August. But you also need to put your players in the best position to succeed so leaving players at their natural position is a key in September play off run.
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