Here is what the media is reporting on the Cubs today:
1. The Cubs finished a WINLESS road trip with 2-0 loss to the Padres.
2. The Cubs have now lost 8 straight games.
3. The Cubs are 0-for-August.
4. The Cubs were shut out for the second time in the Padre series.
5. ESPNChicago notes:
"Something about the non-waiver trade deadline has seemed to take the wind ouf of the Cubs sails."
"Sveum has said the passing fo the (trade) deadline has not affected morale, but the Cubs seemed to have much more focus before July 31 and barely any since."
"Castro was hitless in his first 21 at-bats on the road trip."
"Samardzija pulled off his best Carlos Zambrano impersonation in the seventh inning (by breaking bat over knee)."
6. The Cubs offense is being compared to laggards from the early 1980s, including the 1981 club that finished in 8th place.
7. The Cubs have played 15 rookies so far this season.
8. Soriano is the last player on the roster from a Cub playoff team.
Bad teams have bad losing streaks. This year's Cub squad has pulled over a couple of nasty losing cascades. But the current malaise has gotten beat writers and observers to comment that the team looks like a dead mule off to the side of canyon trail.
Baseball players are professionals. Their job is to try to win every game. Their job is to perform to the best of their abilities, day in and day out. Cub fans overlooked the lack of talent if the players hustled and tried hard to win. But the reports this week indicate a change that may be hard for fans to accept: lackluster losing.
The observation that the Cubs have lost morale may be a serious leadership problem. Kerry Wood, Dempster, Johnson, Soto and Baker are all gone. Whether any were vocal leaders or not, a veteran void has been created in an attempt to turn over the roster and get younger players on the field. It is said that Anthony Rizzo has leadership qualities, but rarely do rookies take command of a clubhouse.
It is really the job of the manager to keep the team focused on playing every day. If Sveum can't keep his team together, then is he the man to be trusted with the development of all the new prospects? Team chemistry is over-rated. There have been World Series champion teams where players hated each other, but they worked hard and won on the field. Impeding doom is not the same thing; a team that expects to lose will find a way to lose. It is vicious cycle now: one week it is the lack of pitching, the next it is lack of offense. A team just going through the motions is not a fun team to watch.
A really bad season can have a carry-over effect to the next. Young players may get into bad habits. Starlin Castro has lost the one thing that came natural to him: contact on the baseball. Can the coaches get him back to his normal self? Adjustments seem to come agonizingly slow for this club. This is not just growing pains but real painful to see the glimmer of any substantial change in the way the Cubs have been run for the past few seasons.
August 9, 2012
August 8, 2012
GARZA FALLOUT
When the old Cubs acquired Matt Garza for five prospects, at the time some analysts believed that was a steep price to pay for a starting pitcher. The Rays were the beneficiary of the trade, with three of the five prospects reaching the majors, including reserve outfield defensive speedster Sam Fuld.
The Rays had excess starting pitching and did not want to pay Garza $9 million in arbitrated salary. So the Cubs, still believing they could compete, made the deal. Garza's career in Chicago has been average at best. As a Cub, Garza is 15-17. In 2011, his ERA was 3.32 in 31 starts. In 2012, it was 3.91 in 18 starts. His combined WHIP is around 1.211. So maybe he has been an above average starter on an underperforming team.
But most observers don't perceive Garza as the ace of any staff, like they do with Halladay, Verlander or Kershaw.
The Cubs really wanted to exchange Garza's talents for a boatload of prospects at the trading deadline. Garza's value would never be higher, since a contender could have him for this year and all of next year (after arbitration). It was unlikely that the Cubs would have gotten 5 prospects in return, but at least three quality players.
But no trade happened because Garza got hurt. First it was reported as a tricep injury. Then fluid in the arm. Then he took some personal time for the birth of his child. The Cubs said he would make a start just before the trade deadline, but that did not come to pass. Now, the word is Garza is on the DL with a "stress reaction," which is just short of a stress fracture in his elbow at the triceps. Blake Parker has a similar injury, and he has been out since June 1st. So that means Garza is done for 2012. That means Garza will not competitively pitch until spring training 2013. That means he won't be traded this off-season. That means his trade value is falling to near zero.
Timing is everything, especially in baseball. If the Cubs, knowing that the team was going to be in the bottom all season, should have tried to deal Garza in June, not July. But they held on to him to juice up the bidding near the deadline. But that strategy backfired.
The diplomatic word from Clark and Addison is that the front office is happy to have Garza in the rotation in 2013. They have no choice in the matter. Garza will probably get a good raise in his final year of arbitration to $10.5 to $11.25 million, numbers that can't make the business side of the Cubs happy since it has been all about cutting payroll for 2013.
The fallout of this saga is that the Cubs are stuck with a starting pitcher that does not fit into their plans (rebuilding) or their budget for 2013, and may be difficult to trade because of his injury history.
The Rays had excess starting pitching and did not want to pay Garza $9 million in arbitrated salary. So the Cubs, still believing they could compete, made the deal. Garza's career in Chicago has been average at best. As a Cub, Garza is 15-17. In 2011, his ERA was 3.32 in 31 starts. In 2012, it was 3.91 in 18 starts. His combined WHIP is around 1.211. So maybe he has been an above average starter on an underperforming team.
But most observers don't perceive Garza as the ace of any staff, like they do with Halladay, Verlander or Kershaw.
The Cubs really wanted to exchange Garza's talents for a boatload of prospects at the trading deadline. Garza's value would never be higher, since a contender could have him for this year and all of next year (after arbitration). It was unlikely that the Cubs would have gotten 5 prospects in return, but at least three quality players.
But no trade happened because Garza got hurt. First it was reported as a tricep injury. Then fluid in the arm. Then he took some personal time for the birth of his child. The Cubs said he would make a start just before the trade deadline, but that did not come to pass. Now, the word is Garza is on the DL with a "stress reaction," which is just short of a stress fracture in his elbow at the triceps. Blake Parker has a similar injury, and he has been out since June 1st. So that means Garza is done for 2012. That means Garza will not competitively pitch until spring training 2013. That means he won't be traded this off-season. That means his trade value is falling to near zero.
Timing is everything, especially in baseball. If the Cubs, knowing that the team was going to be in the bottom all season, should have tried to deal Garza in June, not July. But they held on to him to juice up the bidding near the deadline. But that strategy backfired.
The diplomatic word from Clark and Addison is that the front office is happy to have Garza in the rotation in 2013. They have no choice in the matter. Garza will probably get a good raise in his final year of arbitration to $10.5 to $11.25 million, numbers that can't make the business side of the Cubs happy since it has been all about cutting payroll for 2013.
The fallout of this saga is that the Cubs are stuck with a starting pitcher that does not fit into their plans (rebuilding) or their budget for 2013, and may be difficult to trade because of his injury history.
August 7, 2012
PITCHING SOLUTIONS
The Cubs pitching staff is in free fall. The trades of Dempster and Maholm with the injury of Garza puts the Cubs back floundering in recent seasons. We will now see a humbling turnstyle of AAA pitchers taking turns in the rotation to close out the year.
But the glaring pitching hole will have to be filled in the off season. The rebuilding solution will not be ready in time. The pitchers signed by the new front office are years away. So, that leaves the free agent market. The following is a list of FAs (age) (those without team options):
Erik Bedard (34)
Joe Blanton (32)
Bartolo Colon (40)
Aaron Cook (34)
Kevin Correia (32)
Doug Davis (37)
Ryan Dempster (36)
Zach Duke (30)
Jeff Francis (32)
Freddy Garcia (37)
Zack Greinke (28)
Jeremy Guthrie (34)
Rich Harden (31)
Livan Hernandez (38)
Edwin Jackson (29)
Hiroki Kuroda (38)
Colby Lewis (33)
Francisco Liriano (29)
Kyle Lohse (34)
Rodrigo Lopez (37)
Derek Lowe (40)
Shaun Marcum (31)
Jason Marquis (34)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)
Brandon McCarthy (29)
Kevin Millwood (38)
Jamie Moyer (50)
Ramon Ortiz (40)
Roy Oswalt (35)
Carl Pavano (37)
Brad Penny (35)
Joel Pineiro (34)
Anibal Sanchez (29)
Jonathan Sanchez (30)
Joe Saunders (32)
Chien-Ming Wang (33)
Kip Wells (36)
Chris Young (34)
Carlos Zambrano (32)
With Garza (29) now projected to be in the starting rotation in 2013 (his trade value at present is nil), and the Cubs management's philosophy of going "young," we can eliminate any free agent pitcher over age 32 for many reasons. First, older pitchers are more unreliable and injury prone. Second, a younger pitcher may get more trade value in July, 2013. Any free agent signings this off season are geared toward flipping the player for more prospects. So let us look at pitchers under age 33 for the Cub talent pool:
Joe Blanton (32)
Kevin Correia (32)
Zach Duke (30)
Zack Greinke (28)
Rich Harden (31)
Edwin Jackson (29)
Colby Lewis (33)
Francisco Liriano (29)
Shaun Marcum (31)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (32)
Brandon McCarthy (29)
Anibal Sanchez (29)
Jonathan Sanchez (30)
Joe Saunders (32)
Carlos Zambrano (32)
The top five pitchers on this list are probably outside the Cubs price range: Greinke, Jackson, A. Sanchez, Marcum and Harden. Other pitchers, like Lewis, have injuries that make them suspect picks.
What Hoyer will try to do is pick up another Maholm. The two ex-Pirates Correia or Duke could fit that bill. The other flyer could be a discounted Blanton, a risky McCarthy or J. Sanchez. The Cubs will need to sign two of these players in order to field a legitimate starting rotation with Garza, Samardzija and T. Wood. The only wild card in this blueprint is if someone comes out of nowhere in the last two months (Germano, Raley, Rusin) and has a Chris Sale like run.
August 6, 2012
SMOLDERING TRADE TALK
The Chicago Tribune reported that the Dodgers were upset with the reports that at the trade deadline, pitcher Ryan Dempster was listening into the trade conversations between team representatives.
Theo Epstein now claims that the reporter(s) "misinterpreted" what he said; he meant to say was that Dempster was brought into the room and told what was going on with the Dodgers.
But the initial reports made it appear that Dempster was in the Cubs business offices, listening in (speaker phone) to the trade talk. Apparently, stung from the "lack of communication" that doomed the Atlanta trade, the Cubs front office put Dempster at ground zero to show him that the Dodgers really were not that interested in him, and that he had to think about alternative destinations.
Now Dempster could have said no to any team but the Dodgers, since he has 10 & 5 trade veto rights. But giving Dempster an insider view of the situation, it may have made it easier to accept a deal to the Rangers knowing that the Dodgers were not making a real play for him.
The Dodgers are upset with the reports in that the conversations between general managers is supposed to remain confidential. You don't want outsiders in on the conversation to know that a team is willing to trade certain players, because the team probably has not told those players. You don't want to upset your current roster with trade rumors (which ironically, is what ticked Dempster off in the Atlanta deal: the media reported the trade before the Cubs told him about it.)
We will never know what exactly happened at the trade deadline. We do know that Dempster was at the Cub offices, and he was told by the Cubs of the trade talks going no where with the Dodgers. Whether Dempster was in the room listening in on the exact conversation, that will be one word against another.
But what this does reveal about the Cubs organization is that the new guys have problems communicating with their players and apparently with other general managers in the area of "professional protocol." Throughout the history of the game, there have been some general managers that other teams just refused to deal with on any level (due to personality conflicts, ethics, or being blabbermouths at the press bar). There are some teams that refuse to deal with clubs in their own division. Every general manager in the game today needs to have some working relationship with his peers, otherwise the team is at a disadvantage.
The whole two week Dempster trade saga puts the Cubs in a terrible light with other clubs and the general public.
UPDATE: ESPNChicago updates the saga with a conversation with Dempster, who says he was not in the room when the negotiations between general managers took place. He came in later to discuss things. ESPN quotes:
Theo Epstein now claims that the reporter(s) "misinterpreted" what he said; he meant to say was that Dempster was brought into the room and told what was going on with the Dodgers.
But the initial reports made it appear that Dempster was in the Cubs business offices, listening in (speaker phone) to the trade talk. Apparently, stung from the "lack of communication" that doomed the Atlanta trade, the Cubs front office put Dempster at ground zero to show him that the Dodgers really were not that interested in him, and that he had to think about alternative destinations.
Now Dempster could have said no to any team but the Dodgers, since he has 10 & 5 trade veto rights. But giving Dempster an insider view of the situation, it may have made it easier to accept a deal to the Rangers knowing that the Dodgers were not making a real play for him.
The Dodgers are upset with the reports in that the conversations between general managers is supposed to remain confidential. You don't want outsiders in on the conversation to know that a team is willing to trade certain players, because the team probably has not told those players. You don't want to upset your current roster with trade rumors (which ironically, is what ticked Dempster off in the Atlanta deal: the media reported the trade before the Cubs told him about it.)
We will never know what exactly happened at the trade deadline. We do know that Dempster was at the Cub offices, and he was told by the Cubs of the trade talks going no where with the Dodgers. Whether Dempster was in the room listening in on the exact conversation, that will be one word against another.
But what this does reveal about the Cubs organization is that the new guys have problems communicating with their players and apparently with other general managers in the area of "professional protocol." Throughout the history of the game, there have been some general managers that other teams just refused to deal with on any level (due to personality conflicts, ethics, or being blabbermouths at the press bar). There are some teams that refuse to deal with clubs in their own division. Every general manager in the game today needs to have some working relationship with his peers, otherwise the team is at a disadvantage.
The whole two week Dempster trade saga puts the Cubs in a terrible light with other clubs and the general public.
UPDATE: ESPNChicago updates the saga with a conversation with Dempster, who says he was not in the room when the negotiations between general managers took place. He came in later to discuss things. ESPN quotes:
"I never was listening to the Dodgers and Cubs negotiate this deal,"
Dempster said. "I was in the other room, and they wanted me there to be
informed and also be able to talk about other teams that may come up.
They came to me with a couple of other teams, but there was never any
deal they had set up. When they came to me eventually with the Yankees
and Texas, and it appeared we weren't going to get anything done with
the Dodgers, I told them to go ahead.
"At about a half hour before
the deadline, they put me on the phone with Ned Colletti. We had a
conversation and it was apparent at that time that regardless of how
hard all sides worked, that they weren't going to get a deal done. I
told him I definitely wanted to come to the Dodgers, and that I'd be
interested in signing an extension, and I told him I wasn't just saying
that to try to get the deal done. At that point, we just said goodbye
and wished each other well."
August 3, 2012
2013 OPENING DAY
As the way things simmer this summer, this is what the Cubs opening day line up looks today (without any further off season moves):
1. DeJesus RF
2. Castro SS
3. Rizzo 1B
4. Soriano LF
5. B. Jackson CF
6. Vitters 3B
7. Clevenger C
8. Barney 2B
9. Garza SP
That would equate to a 50% turnover from this year's position starters on opening day 2012.
1. DeJesus RF
2. Castro SS
3. Rizzo 1B
4. Soriano LF
5. B. Jackson CF
6. Vitters 3B
7. Clevenger C
8. Barney 2B
9. Garza SP
That would equate to a 50% turnover from this year's position starters on opening day 2012.
August 1, 2012
WHAT IS THE FUTURE?
As the trading deadline dust settled last night, and the Cubs being one-hit by the Pirates at a very empty Wrigley Field, one must ask whether this is the franchise bottom and/or the start of the new team construction under Epstein and Hoyer?
On the current roster, who are the players that are clearly the Cubs future?
In the outfield, Soriano, DeJesus and LaHair are not the future. The Cubs tried to unload Soriano and LaHair this year, but with no real takers. Soriano's contract alone anchors him to LF, but he is on the decline. LaHair has turned into another old AAAA player.
In the infield, Valbuena, Barney are not the future. Valbuena is a journeyman covering the bag because the woeful Ian Stewart got hurt (he is also not part of the future rebuild). Barney may be a nice scrappy little player in the popular Ryan Theriot mode, but he is not as productive as the Pirates' Neil Walker (11 HRs, 56 RBI). In modern baseball you need position players with more offensive pop than average defense. Rizzo and Castro are in the Cubs future.
Behind the plate, Clevenger and Castillo will have to earn their keep quickly. The Cubs will have to promote more and more young pitchers through the system quicker than normal because ownership and the fan base cannot wait to 2015 for a competitive squad. They will platoon for the rest of this summer.
In the rotation, Garza is not the future as the Cubs really wanted to trade him but an injury cost them to opportunity to make the big deal. It is highly unlikely the Cubs will spend big money on a contract extension with Garza, who has not shown Verlander-ace performance while in a Cub uniform. Samardzija is on the fence; as a first year starter he is playing for a contract and a raise. Since the Cubs kept him out of trade discussions means they want to keep him around, at least for the short term. Travis Wood, by default, has to be part of the future rotation, as the only viable lefty starter in the organization.
Volstad, Coleman, Germano appear to be spot starters and placeholders and not keys to the rebuilding plan.
In the bullpen, only Jeff Russell appears to be part of the future. Marmol's inconsistency and his contract dooms him to be moved in the off-season. Maine, Mateo, Corpas and Camp are not long term assets. Besides, most scouts believe the four right handed pitchers the Cubs obtained at the trade deadline all project to bullpen relievers.
In the minors, who is supposed to be the future? The rebuilding and roster turnover has to begin next year in earnest.
At Iowa, Brett Jackson is the CF in waiting; except his strike out totals are looming large. Josh Vitters has been the perennial third base prospect for years. Due to the lack of depth, he will get his shot next season.
The Cubs front office has an arbitrary 500 AB quota for AAA position players before promotion to the majors, so prospects like Lake, Baez, Sczur, Torreyes must wait at least two years before being "ready" for promotion.
And it will take an IBM supercomputer to sort out all the pitchers the Cubs have acquired in the last six months to see if any of them are keepers.
So as it stands today, the Cubs future is in the hands of the following players:
Castro, Rizzo, Samardzija, T. Wood, Russell, B. Jackson and Vitters.
On the current roster, who are the players that are clearly the Cubs future?
In the outfield, Soriano, DeJesus and LaHair are not the future. The Cubs tried to unload Soriano and LaHair this year, but with no real takers. Soriano's contract alone anchors him to LF, but he is on the decline. LaHair has turned into another old AAAA player.
In the infield, Valbuena, Barney are not the future. Valbuena is a journeyman covering the bag because the woeful Ian Stewart got hurt (he is also not part of the future rebuild). Barney may be a nice scrappy little player in the popular Ryan Theriot mode, but he is not as productive as the Pirates' Neil Walker (11 HRs, 56 RBI). In modern baseball you need position players with more offensive pop than average defense. Rizzo and Castro are in the Cubs future.
Behind the plate, Clevenger and Castillo will have to earn their keep quickly. The Cubs will have to promote more and more young pitchers through the system quicker than normal because ownership and the fan base cannot wait to 2015 for a competitive squad. They will platoon for the rest of this summer.
In the rotation, Garza is not the future as the Cubs really wanted to trade him but an injury cost them to opportunity to make the big deal. It is highly unlikely the Cubs will spend big money on a contract extension with Garza, who has not shown Verlander-ace performance while in a Cub uniform. Samardzija is on the fence; as a first year starter he is playing for a contract and a raise. Since the Cubs kept him out of trade discussions means they want to keep him around, at least for the short term. Travis Wood, by default, has to be part of the future rotation, as the only viable lefty starter in the organization.
Volstad, Coleman, Germano appear to be spot starters and placeholders and not keys to the rebuilding plan.
In the bullpen, only Jeff Russell appears to be part of the future. Marmol's inconsistency and his contract dooms him to be moved in the off-season. Maine, Mateo, Corpas and Camp are not long term assets. Besides, most scouts believe the four right handed pitchers the Cubs obtained at the trade deadline all project to bullpen relievers.
In the minors, who is supposed to be the future? The rebuilding and roster turnover has to begin next year in earnest.
At Iowa, Brett Jackson is the CF in waiting; except his strike out totals are looming large. Josh Vitters has been the perennial third base prospect for years. Due to the lack of depth, he will get his shot next season.
The Cubs front office has an arbitrary 500 AB quota for AAA position players before promotion to the majors, so prospects like Lake, Baez, Sczur, Torreyes must wait at least two years before being "ready" for promotion.
And it will take an IBM supercomputer to sort out all the pitchers the Cubs have acquired in the last six months to see if any of them are keepers.
So as it stands today, the Cubs future is in the hands of the following players:
Castro, Rizzo, Samardzija, T. Wood, Russell, B. Jackson and Vitters.
SURPRISE MOVE
Maybe Ryan Dempster just wanted a better landing spot for a contender than the Atlanta Braves. He got it with the Texas Rangers, who have the players to continue to go deep in the post-season if their pitching holds up. Injuries to two starters made Texas make a move to find a quality arm for the pennant chase.
The Rangers acquired Dempster for Class A minor league third baseman Christian Villanueva and Class A minor league right-hander Kyle Hendricks.
Dempster was drafted by the Rangers in the third in 1995 but he was traded to the Marlins in 1996. Converted from being a closer, Dempster was a fairly consistent starter for the Cubs. Since acquiring 10-and-5 rights, Dempster had to approve the trade to the Rangers, which in some respects was a surprise since all indications was he wanted to move to the Dodgers.
Despite a low win total, Dempster posted a 2.25 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 in 104 innings with the Cubs this year. He's earning $14MM -- nearly $5MM between now and the end of the season -- and will hit free agency this fall. It was clear that the Cubs would not tender him a contract at the end of the season, so there would be no compensation pick in the next draft. So the Cubs really needed to trade Dempster and receive something in return.
Villanueva, 21, has a .285/.356/.421 batting line in 425 plate appearances with Class A Myrtle Beach this year. The third baseman entered the 2012 season as the 100th-best prospect in MLB, according to Baseball America. He has a .286/.350/.438 batting line in four minor league seasons. However, the Rangers have another third base prospect, Mike Olt, which they believe is better than Villanueva. In a classic case of trading a prospect blocked at his position, the Rangers traded for Dempster, a proven commodity.
The Cubs have been recently talking about shoring up the lack of depth in the minor league system, especially at third base. Villanueva shows some offensive power but has a weak fielding percentage at third base. In some respects, he is in the mold of Cub minor leaguer Josh Vitters.
But the key to the deal is the pitching prospect. Hendricks, 22, has a 2.82 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9 in 130 2/3 innings over the course of 20 starts at Myrtle Beach. The 6'2" right-hander has 150 strikeouts and just 21 walks in 166 1/3 innings since being selected in the eighth round of the 2011 draft.
On paper, this looks like a good deal for the Cubs. The two prospects will take at least 3 to 4 years in the minor league development ranks before they have a chance to make the major league roster. Project late 2015. The Cubs front office has stressed that it wants to go young and acquire more "assets" under their control. The trade of four major leaguers for five minor league prospects is not quite the volume that most observers expected from the Cubs. And there were no immediate "impact" players in any of the Cub deals.
In fact, most writers believe the Cubs had a better deal with the Braves for Randall Delgado, a major league ready pitcher.
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