First impressions can be lasting impressions. Scott Feldman's performance last night in Atlanta was bad. Chris Volstad bad.
On Friday his control was a mess, hence the walks, wild pitches and hit batter. Plus, the Braves stole three bases on him. He threw 102 pitches in less than five innings of work. In his Cubs debut, Feldman gave up four runs on five hits and four walks. He threw two wild pitches and hit another batter. He left the game with a 7.71 ERA and 1,929 WHIP.
Recall, Volstad's 2012 Cub season:
3-12, 6.31 ERA, 21 starts, 111.1 IP, 137 H, 81 R, 78 ER, 43 BB, 63 K, 1.617 WHIP
Recall, Feldman's spring training:
0-3, 11.25 ERA, 6 starts, 20 IP, 38 H, 25 R, 25 ER, 6 BB, 17 K, 2.200 WHIP.
Pitching coach Chris Bosio has not corrected the problem that the Rangers found in Feldman when Texas last season demoted Feldman to bullpen duty. But since Garza and Baker are on extended rehabs, Feldman is projected to start through May. There is at least 9 more starts for Feldman before Garza may return.
Yikes.
There has to be a report card soon on Epstein and Hoyer's ability to find and/or develop pitchers. In most organizational scouting reports of minor league talent, Cub pitching is not mentioned as a strength even though the Cubs drafted 17 arms in the last draft. Iowa is stocked with AAA arms. Chris Rusin is the default number six starter until Baker and Garza get off the DL. The Cubs traded Maholm for Vizcaino who is again on the 60 day DL with no time line to return to the majors (he may be out until next season). The overall record of Cubs finding quality starting pitching continues to be poor.
April 6, 2013
April 5, 2013
TOMMY'S PLAY PEN
Ricketts has been posturing that the family would spend $500 million of their own money into the rehab of Wrigley. But that number includes the redevelopment of McDonald's block across the street which the family purchased last year. Ricketts said that the team no longer wanted public funds to pay for his private improvements, which was a non-starter at city hall and the community.
But considering most neighborhood associations have been kept in the dark ("we have not seen any real plans for the rehab project"), in some respects the dealmakers are keeping the various competing parties in the dark until "the deal" is announced next week. Then, the sparks will fly.
To be perfectly clear, the Ricketts are not "caretakers" for the Cubs franchise. The Ricketts are now major property developers on the north side of town. They are attempting to create a theme park called Cubville, with Wrigley Field as the key venue for more than just baseball games. The Ricketts want all restrictions off the field so they can do what they want with their property. But that is naive and arrogant since every business in the city is subject to strict zoning and building ordinances.
Further complicating matters is the Tribune's deal with rooftop owners. In exchange for 17 percent of the rooftop gate, the neighbors bought unrestricted sight lines to the game action inside Wrigley. Ricketts does not like the roof toppers and wants to shut them out. He wants to build large new scoreboards which would block views (which would be a breach of the current agreement). How the city is going to appease both sides on this is going to be a difficult ballet, as the local alderman holds the preemptive zoning veto on any Wrigley plans.
The dirty secret is that the Ricketts want Wrigley Field to be turned into all event, Allstate Arena kind of 12 month, 24/7 kind of destination place. They want corporate events, concerts, football games, hockey contests, college and high school sports. They want to keep the special ball park restaurants and bars open to compete with the neighborhood establishments. They have the paranoid feeling that everyone around them is making money off their team - - - and they want to curtail it. Ricketts wants to own Lakeview and take a bigger piece of the business pie.
And all of these new potential revenue schemes has nothing really to do with improving the Cubs as a baseball team. Wrigley Field's new advertising, new events and venue status is what is going to drive revenue growth, not the Cubs win loss record. Wrigley will be reconfigured to fit more events into its small footprint than just baseball. The plan is to have Wrigley itself be the revenue and marketing star (a self generating resource). But, the whole reason why tourists come to Wrigley during the summer is to see the old ball park, a throw back to a by-gone era. Once you change the character of the field by stuffing it with beer carts and massive jumbotrons, the landmark draw will quickly fade away. The undercurrent is a whisper "so what?" The switch to baseball fan only facility to an entertainment complex is the real bottom line here.
THE NEXT 19
One could say that the Cubs are in an uncomfortable position. First place after three games. The team just won their first opening series in four years. The optimism must be tempered by realism.
The Cubs play their next 19 games against teams with winning 2012 records. The next opponent, the Braves, have been penciled in as a wild card team this season.
But this first 22 game stretch (13.5% of the season) will tell you how well the Cubs are going to be this season. Good. Average. Below Average. Bad. Really Bad.
Manager Dale Sveum talked about the need for his club to have "a fast start" to the season. The front office also wants a winning April in order to sell tickets and keep up fan interest after a 100 loss season.
But from a pure statistical standpoint, the first 22 games count "the same" as as other games in the schedule.
But there is an inherit axiom in athletics. Former players will tell you that getting off to a fast start helps with individual confidence and team chemistry. In some respects, baseball is not as high energy as a hockey or basketball game where all the teammates are in fluid motion. Baseball is an individual on individual game (throw and catch, pitching and hitting). Some people call the idea of team chemistry hog wash. Some historians will reference the bad chemistry of some teams, where players hated each other or the manager (like the Yankees), led to championship seasons.
We can objectively see when a player loses his confidence. A batter swings wildly at pitches way out of the strike zone. A pitcher, like Carlos Marmol, cannot locate his slider or has no confidence that his fastball will not be a flat, fat home run offering to the batter. There is a real mental component to professional sports.
For the Cubs, a fast start may be important for a more long term reason. The Cubs are hoping that the core young players (Castro, Rizzo, Samardzija, Barney, Castillo) will continue to improve to set the foundation for a competitive team by 2015. However, young players follow the example set by the clubhouse veterans. If year after year a team loses, then losing becomes an acceptable way of life in the locker room. It is not like the players don't want to win; but there are no ramifications to them personally (since they are "the future") because of the team losses. The Cubs are nearing a tipping point with their young core players; they need to quickly learn how to win at the major league level.
And winning at the team level is complex. Throughout their lives, professional players were probably the best player on their youth team. They have been told by parents, family and friends how great they were at their position. They would garner more accolades for personal accomplishments (stats) because that is how scouts compare players. As a result, most players are quite self-centered about how they go about playing the game. Winning at a team level needs a certain amount of re-education. Teams that win together learn to sacrifice individual stats for the greater good, like bunting a base runner over, or taking an extra base on a hit to the outfield even though it will physically drain you. Teams without a basic knowledge and application of the proper way to play the game as a team are doomed for failure. We call it "baseball intelligence." Does a player have the baseball IQ to succeed? Can he predict what will happen, know the situation, know how to instinctively react, and know his role?
If the Cubs lose 3 of 5 game sets in this next stretch, then it would confirm that the 2013 Cubs would be on the same path as last season, at a .409 winning percentage (or 66 win pace).
The Cubs play their next 19 games against teams with winning 2012 records. The next opponent, the Braves, have been penciled in as a wild card team this season.
But this first 22 game stretch (13.5% of the season) will tell you how well the Cubs are going to be this season. Good. Average. Below Average. Bad. Really Bad.
Manager Dale Sveum talked about the need for his club to have "a fast start" to the season. The front office also wants a winning April in order to sell tickets and keep up fan interest after a 100 loss season.
But from a pure statistical standpoint, the first 22 games count "the same" as as other games in the schedule.
But there is an inherit axiom in athletics. Former players will tell you that getting off to a fast start helps with individual confidence and team chemistry. In some respects, baseball is not as high energy as a hockey or basketball game where all the teammates are in fluid motion. Baseball is an individual on individual game (throw and catch, pitching and hitting). Some people call the idea of team chemistry hog wash. Some historians will reference the bad chemistry of some teams, where players hated each other or the manager (like the Yankees), led to championship seasons.
We can objectively see when a player loses his confidence. A batter swings wildly at pitches way out of the strike zone. A pitcher, like Carlos Marmol, cannot locate his slider or has no confidence that his fastball will not be a flat, fat home run offering to the batter. There is a real mental component to professional sports.
For the Cubs, a fast start may be important for a more long term reason. The Cubs are hoping that the core young players (Castro, Rizzo, Samardzija, Barney, Castillo) will continue to improve to set the foundation for a competitive team by 2015. However, young players follow the example set by the clubhouse veterans. If year after year a team loses, then losing becomes an acceptable way of life in the locker room. It is not like the players don't want to win; but there are no ramifications to them personally (since they are "the future") because of the team losses. The Cubs are nearing a tipping point with their young core players; they need to quickly learn how to win at the major league level.
And winning at the team level is complex. Throughout their lives, professional players were probably the best player on their youth team. They have been told by parents, family and friends how great they were at their position. They would garner more accolades for personal accomplishments (stats) because that is how scouts compare players. As a result, most players are quite self-centered about how they go about playing the game. Winning at a team level needs a certain amount of re-education. Teams that win together learn to sacrifice individual stats for the greater good, like bunting a base runner over, or taking an extra base on a hit to the outfield even though it will physically drain you. Teams without a basic knowledge and application of the proper way to play the game as a team are doomed for failure. We call it "baseball intelligence." Does a player have the baseball IQ to succeed? Can he predict what will happen, know the situation, know how to instinctively react, and know his role?
If the Cubs lose 3 of 5 game sets in this next stretch, then it would confirm that the 2013 Cubs would be on the same path as last season, at a .409 winning percentage (or 66 win pace).
April 4, 2013
THE WAR ROOM
There has been a great range on how many wins the Cubs will have this season. The predictions began in the winter when the Cubs began acquiring starting pitchers and journeymen to the start of opening day. The range is wide: from 52 wins to 78. This is the gulf of expectations between various levels of Cub fans.
If we just take the opening day roster as the starting point, we find that the position players collectively have a 12.7 WAR (wins above replacement). For the pitching staff, they have a collective 8.5 WAR (for pitching alone).
The team projected WAR would be 21.2 if the players did as well as they did last season. Since WAR basically postulates that a AAA team would win 32 percent of the games, or 51.84 wins per season, the Cubs 21.2 projected WAR would equate to 73.04 wins.
The 2012 Cubs were 61-101 (.376 winning percentage).
The 2013 Cubs WAR record is 73-89 (.450 winning percentage).
That is a 12 game improvement from last season. That means this year's Cubs would be 19.7 percent better. How could that be?
WAR is a comparison tool. It is not an absolute indicator or predictor.
This huge increase in competitive play is for a team that lost twenty percentage of its rotation (Baker and Garza) and its starting third baseman (Stewart) may be a statistical mirage. The Cubs bench is filled with .200 hitters, with two of them now starting at third and second base. The bullpen is shaky with Marmol as the closer. Rondon as another Rule 5 flyer is probably over matched from jumping from AA pitching to the majors. The 2013 Cubs look no different than the 2012 club. And as such, one is more likely to see the Cubs repeating a 100 loss season than improving by a dozen victories.
If we just take the opening day roster as the starting point, we find that the position players collectively have a 12.7 WAR (wins above replacement). For the pitching staff, they have a collective 8.5 WAR (for pitching alone).
The team projected WAR would be 21.2 if the players did as well as they did last season. Since WAR basically postulates that a AAA team would win 32 percent of the games, or 51.84 wins per season, the Cubs 21.2 projected WAR would equate to 73.04 wins.
The 2012 Cubs were 61-101 (.376 winning percentage).
The 2013 Cubs WAR record is 73-89 (.450 winning percentage).
That is a 12 game improvement from last season. That means this year's Cubs would be 19.7 percent better. How could that be?
WAR is a comparison tool. It is not an absolute indicator or predictor.
This huge increase in competitive play is for a team that lost twenty percentage of its rotation (Baker and Garza) and its starting third baseman (Stewart) may be a statistical mirage. The Cubs bench is filled with .200 hitters, with two of them now starting at third and second base. The bullpen is shaky with Marmol as the closer. Rondon as another Rule 5 flyer is probably over matched from jumping from AA pitching to the majors. The 2013 Cubs look no different than the 2012 club. And as such, one is more likely to see the Cubs repeating a 100 loss season than improving by a dozen victories.
MID SEASON FORM
I got home last night in time to see a few innings of the Cubs-Pirates game. The broadcasters said it was a breezy 32 degrees. The Cubs offense was as cold as the weather. Two measly hits off of former Astro lefty Wandy Rodruiguez.
The Cubs were in mid-2012 season form. Edwin Jackson was cruising along in his Cub debut, until he lost his command in one long inning. And that was the ball game. Unless you can throw a shutout like Samardzija, the Cubs have trouble coming from behind.
Castro looked weird in his modern chain mail hood. Lillibridge looked like an escaped Wonka employee when he played third base. Sappelt at the plate looked like he was trying to capture butterflies with a garden rake.
No wonder the Cubs cannot sell out Opening Day. The PR department emails continue to flood our in-folders on a daily basis.
The story of this year's Cubs is more to do with the off-season business arbitrage between the owners and the city than fielding a real competitive team. Reduced payroll, emphasis on prospects at the Class A level and below, and a triage for journeymen pitchers to trade is a blueprint that most fans deep into year three of a recession won't afford to watch.
Further dampening the historic Cub town vibe is the fast start of the White Sox, who had back to back quality starts from Sale and Peavy. And the White Sox offense has hit 6 home runs in two games. As Greg Maddux said, "chicks dig the long ball." The White Sox are poised to surprise the national stage to be better than expected while the Cubs are no surprise at all.
The Cubs were in mid-2012 season form. Edwin Jackson was cruising along in his Cub debut, until he lost his command in one long inning. And that was the ball game. Unless you can throw a shutout like Samardzija, the Cubs have trouble coming from behind.
Castro looked weird in his modern chain mail hood. Lillibridge looked like an escaped Wonka employee when he played third base. Sappelt at the plate looked like he was trying to capture butterflies with a garden rake.
No wonder the Cubs cannot sell out Opening Day. The PR department emails continue to flood our in-folders on a daily basis.
The story of this year's Cubs is more to do with the off-season business arbitrage between the owners and the city than fielding a real competitive team. Reduced payroll, emphasis on prospects at the Class A level and below, and a triage for journeymen pitchers to trade is a blueprint that most fans deep into year three of a recession won't afford to watch.
Further dampening the historic Cub town vibe is the fast start of the White Sox, who had back to back quality starts from Sale and Peavy. And the White Sox offense has hit 6 home runs in two games. As Greg Maddux said, "chicks dig the long ball." The White Sox are poised to surprise the national stage to be better than expected while the Cubs are no surprise at all.
April 3, 2013
THE DAY AFTER
After the Samardzija victory on opening day, the Cubs made one small move. Ex-Red Sox outfielder Ryan Sweeney was signed to a minor league deal.
Sweeney, 28, has played for the White Sox, A's and Red Sox. He has a career .280 BA, 14 HR and 185 RBI in 6 MLB seasons.
Sweeney is another journeyman flier that Epstein brings from his old roster lists.
It does show that the Cubs talent pool continues to be weak at the upper levels of the system and on the major league roster. At this point, Sweeney is the same commodity talent as Hairston, Sappelt or DeJesus.
Also, the media reaction to the Cubs first victory of the season was on the high side. People thought the core of the team played well. The "core" means the principal young talent on the squad who are the building blocks of the future: Castro, Rizzo, Wellington Castillo and Samardzija. One could add Russell in that discussion, too. But that makes only five core players on a roster of 25 (20%). So the Cubs are still playing as a AAAA team compared to other major league rosters.
GM Hoyer stressed the fact that the Cubs had to get off to a fast start this year. But the next four starts will be commanded by .500 to sub-.500 pitchers. Without an explosive offense, the Cubs will get down to their projected seasonal winning percentage quickly.
Sweeney, 28, has played for the White Sox, A's and Red Sox. He has a career .280 BA, 14 HR and 185 RBI in 6 MLB seasons.
Sweeney is another journeyman flier that Epstein brings from his old roster lists.
It does show that the Cubs talent pool continues to be weak at the upper levels of the system and on the major league roster. At this point, Sweeney is the same commodity talent as Hairston, Sappelt or DeJesus.
Also, the media reaction to the Cubs first victory of the season was on the high side. People thought the core of the team played well. The "core" means the principal young talent on the squad who are the building blocks of the future: Castro, Rizzo, Wellington Castillo and Samardzija. One could add Russell in that discussion, too. But that makes only five core players on a roster of 25 (20%). So the Cubs are still playing as a AAAA team compared to other major league rosters.
GM Hoyer stressed the fact that the Cubs had to get off to a fast start this year. But the next four starts will be commanded by .500 to sub-.500 pitchers. Without an explosive offense, the Cubs will get down to their projected seasonal winning percentage quickly.
April 1, 2013
THE START
The best team in baseball this morning is the Houston Astros, who beat the Rangers on opening night. The Astros feature newly acquired Ronny Cedeno at shortstop. Cedeno was released twice this off season, but somehow he wound up as the Astro's starting shortstop. The Astros are a bad team in a tough AL Western division this year.
The Cubs play in a competitive NL Central. The Reds are poised for another 90 plus win season. The Cardinals are still in the pre-season wild card chase. The Brewers and Pirates continue to hover around .500. The Cubs will settle to the bottom.
Even before the first pitch of opening day, the Cubs have had their set backs. The last was Darwin Barney ripping up his knee in the last exhibition game. He will probably go on the disabled list. Which means that non-roster invitee Brent Lillibridge becomes the Cubs opening day starter at second base.
Ian Stewart, Scott Baker and Matt Garza have all been placed on the DL. Latest word on Baker and Garza is that they may be available in June. Arodys Vizcaino, the injured pitcher from the Braves trade last season, was put on the 60 day DL. There is no word if he will pitch at all this season.
So the Cubs have had a bumpy start before the first pitch in Pittsburgh today.
The Cubs play in a competitive NL Central. The Reds are poised for another 90 plus win season. The Cardinals are still in the pre-season wild card chase. The Brewers and Pirates continue to hover around .500. The Cubs will settle to the bottom.
Even before the first pitch of opening day, the Cubs have had their set backs. The last was Darwin Barney ripping up his knee in the last exhibition game. He will probably go on the disabled list. Which means that non-roster invitee Brent Lillibridge becomes the Cubs opening day starter at second base.
Ian Stewart, Scott Baker and Matt Garza have all been placed on the DL. Latest word on Baker and Garza is that they may be available in June. Arodys Vizcaino, the injured pitcher from the Braves trade last season, was put on the 60 day DL. There is no word if he will pitch at all this season.
So the Cubs have had a bumpy start before the first pitch in Pittsburgh today.
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