OH ME, OH MY

The Cubs were on the cusp of being the Big Loser in this trade season by not pulling the trigger on any deals. Well, there is an old adage in baseball circles: sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make.


After messing up the Dempster-Atlanta deal, the Cubs traded left handed starter Paul Maholm and reserve outfielder Reed Johnson and CASH considerations to the Braves for two minor league players, pitchers Jaye Chapman and Arodys Vizcaino. It appears to be an excellent deal for the Braves, who are in a pennant chase with the pitching rich Nationals. The Braves needed to bolster their rotation, and Maholm is a steady, veteran performer.

Maholm has a 3.74 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 and a 49.9% ground ball rate in 120 1/3 innings for the Cubs this year. The 30-year-old has never thrown particularly hard; his average fastball checks in at 87.6 mph this year, according to FanGraphs. He earns a $4.75MM salary in 2012 and his contract includes a $6.5MM club option for 2013.  So the Braves control Maholm next season plus the Cubs are paying part of his contract going forward.

Johnson, 35, has a .307/.361/.452 batting line in 180 plate appearances this year. The right-handed hitter has played all three outfield positions for the Cubs and owns a career .313/.370/.469 line against left-handed pitching. He's signed to a one-year, $1.15MM contract and will hit free agency after the season.  Johnson is one of those deadline pick up that bolsters a team's bench and gives a manager more options down the September stretch, both pitch hitting and defensive replacement.

So what did the Cubs get back in return? Nothing close to what Dempster trade would have gotten them, quality prospect Randall Delgado.  Instead, the Cubs obtained A PITCHER ON THE DISABLED LIST with a major injury.


Vizcaino, who entered the 2012 season ranked by Baseball America as the 40th-best prospect in MLB, had Tommy John surgery this spring. The 21-year-old posted a 3.06 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 97 innings for three Braves affiliates as he made his way through Atlanta's minor league system in 2011. The right-hander reached the Major Leagues last year, posting a 4.67 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 17 relief appearances.
Clearly, the Braves fast tracked Vizcaino through the system to the majors where he had so-so results. A minor league phenom with major surgery is not that comforting or helpful in the near future. The success rate for pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery is good (some pitchers believe their arm is stronger than before), but some do not ever get back to their pre-surgery fastball speeds. Many have to adapt new, more arm friendly pitches, in order to stay on a career course. In normal rehab, it takes 18 months to 2 years until the player is ready to go full bore. So, the trade of Maholm's 18 months left on his contract is for nothing at this point.

Chapman, a 25-year-old right-hander, has a 3.52 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 in 53 2/3 innings of relief for Atlanta's Triple-A team so far in 2012. He has a career 3.95 ERA and 1.391 WHIP. He has been basically a reliever his entire minor league career. But in 101 games finished, he only has 28 saves. At 25, he appears to be a middle reliever candidate.

Was the Maholm deal a "make up trade" with the Braves for Dempster pulling a reversal no to the teams' earlier trade? The Cubs did not receive very much in return for Maholm and Johnson.

The Cubs also traded Geovany Soto. Soto should have been traded a year ago when he still had rookie of the year type potential on the trade market. But the Cubs kept Soto as the starter. Nagging injuries and bad swing mechanics doomed his value this season.


The Cubs traded Soto to the Rangers for Jacob Brigham, a AA minor league pitcher.
Soto, 29, has a .195/.278/.345 batting line in 194 plate appearances this year. The 2008 NL Rookie of the Year earns $4.3MM in 2012 and is on track to go to arbitration for the third time this offseason. However, the Cubs were going to non-tender him to save money which would have granted Soto free agency a year early. Clearly, the Rangers got Soto as catching insurance in case starter Mike Napoli or backup Yorvit Torrealba go down with injuries.

It was cheap insurance, too. Brigham, a 24-year-old right-hander, had been pitching at Double-A Frisco. He has a 4.28 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 124 innings over the course of 21 starts this year. Brigham is a fringe arm, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. He has a below average career as a starter the past six years, with a .391 winning percentage and 4.40 ERA and 1.395 WHIP. At 24 and 6 seasons in his career but not out of AA ball yet means Brigham can't really be called a viable major league prospect at this point. After 6 seasons of development, a player should have already made it to AAA (and with some ML service time). But with Soto's weak bat, this was really a salary dump by the Cubs (possibly to off-set some of the money being sent to Atlanta in the Maholm deal).


Overall, the Cubs traded three players on the current major league roster for one prospect with major arm surgery and a borderline journeyman relief pitcher. 


The only thing the moves really does is to open up roster spaces. Maholm's spot in the rotation most likely will be filled by Volstad since Randy Wells went on the AAA DL is out for the season (thus ending his Cub career). Johnson's spot on the bench may be filled by a middle infielder like Cardenas. Promoting Brett Jackson to sit on the bench would not be a good move, unless Soriano or DeJesus is dealt. Wellington Castillo will replace Soto and platoon with Clevenger in an extended battle of who will become the starting 2013 catcher. 

KENNY THE GAMBLER

You have to give props to White Sox general manager Kenny Williams. When his team has a glaring need, he finds a way to make a trade to help the club.

He has been on fire this season. He traded two marginal utility infielders (and one, Lillibridge, was cut by the team who traded for him) and two very low level prospects (#24 and #30 in the lowly rated White Sox system) for Youkilis, Myers and Liriano.

The White Sox had a wormhole at third base. Starter Morel has a back injury and no bat. The Sox tried to bandage the position including using Orland Hudson there. Defense suffered and offensive waned. So Williams got an unhappy Youkilis out of the nasty backstabbing Red Sox clubhouse. Youkilis has immediately paid dividends anchoring third base.

The White Sox, due to injury, have a rookie heavy bullpen which is not what a contender wants to have going into the post-season. As a result, Williams picked up a proven closer from the Astros, Myers, which immediately makes the entire pitching staff better.

The White Sox rotation began the year as a solid core. Danks, Peavy, Floyd and Humber were supposed to carry the team. But Danks got hurt, and after his perfect game, Humber was simply bad. However, a waiver pick up from the Yankees organization, Quintana, has been very good spot starting for Danks.  Now, with the addition of another lefty starter in Liriano, Williams has given pitching coach Don Cooper enough arms to survive the heat of a pennant race in September.  Liriano is not having a very good season for the Twins, but it was clearly a cheap gamble for the White Sox to make. Every pitcher they bring onto the roster, Williams has the confidence that Cooper will correct any mechanical flaws and get an upside performance from any pitcher.

The plus factor is that adding veterans to a vocal veteran clubhouse can only help solidify a player mission to get into the playoffs and win.

GARZA, DEMPSTER TO STAY

The Cubs appear to be falling face on their collective face.

First, it was the Dempster to Atlanta trade that fell a part because Dempster felt "blindsided" by the news of it. If Dempster did not give the Cubs any preferences, then shame on management for not discussing the prospect of trading him. But if Dempster did give an indication he'd go to Atlanta, then shame on him for pulling out at the last moment. For if Dempster wants to stay a Cub, all he has to do is say "I am not waiving my 10-5 rights." Then the Cubs don't have to waste time trying to deal him for prospects.

The Dempster saga was clearly a distraction and a PR disaster.

Second, Garza gets hurt in his last start. It was initially stated maybe an elbow or arm cramps, but turns out to be a triceps injury of unknown severity. However, Garza will miss his next start (his last one before the trade deadline). No team will trade for an injured starting pitcher at the trade deadline. Garza will stay a Cub for the rest of the season.  There is little chance that Garza will clear waivers after August 1st to make an in-season move with so many other teams vying for the second wild card spot.

So the Cubs will have Dempster and Garza on the roster to the end of the season. Then, another problem occurs which should make management nervous. The whole point of trading Garza and Dempster was to bring back high level and major league ready prospects in return to quicken the rebuilding process. Dempster is a free agent at season's end. In order to get a compensatory draft pick, the Cubs would have to give Dempster a "qualifying offer" of around $12.5 million (which is a $1.5 million pay cut). Maybe the Cubs think Dempster will reject the offer and file for free agency. However, since Dempster and his family are now a fixtures in Chicago, it is highly probable that Dempster could accept the offer and be a Cub in 2014. That would set back rebuilding even further.

Garza could head to his last year of arbitration. He is likely going to make the same as Dempster's offer, $12.5 million (an approximate $2.75 million raise). The Cubs may not think Garza is truly a #1 starter since they have been trying to trade him this year. The Cubs don't want to pay a large extension contract for a pitcher on a ball club that will not be ready to compete until 2015. Ricketts has to be counting the days when his payroll is cut to under $100 million. But if Dempster and Garza both stay, then the payroll relief does not happen.

So the rebuilding process stalls in neutral for another year.

ONE FOR THE DUMPSTER

An unbelievable, baffling afternoon on the Cubs front.


It was reported by multiple sources than the Cubs traded Dempster to the Braves for 22 year old pitcher Randall Delgado (17 starts: 4-9, 4.22 ERA). Then there was a delay about who else may be part of the deal, or that the league office had to approve the deal because of the money changing hands.


But that is pretty standard in big money deals.


However, when the news of the trade hit the inter-webs, it drew a strong reaction from a principal:

Dempster tweets NO TRADE.

Apparently, he learned of the Braves deal from the media and not the Cubs.

He has not approved any trade to the Braves. He was in Pittsburgh getting ready for tonight's game.

And since the Cubs failed to talk to him directly before it got out in the media,

we could assume Dempster is ticked off - - - - and may veto the deal out of spite.

If this is the timeline, it is damning fumble by the Cubs front office. Don't you talk to Dempster BEFORE making the deal and negotiating with the Braves?? You don't cut a deal then go seek Dempster's permission to waive his no trade.  That would be a backward waste of time and resources. 


UPDATE 7-24-2012 9 A.M.:


MLBTR reports this morning that Dempster felt "blindsided when the news of the proposed deal" leaked before the Cubs told him about the possible deal. As we said yesterday, the Cubs brass fumbled their human relations skills badly; by not telling Dempster in advance whether he would take a trade to Atlanta (before starting discussions), it is reported the chances of a deal being completed are only 50-50.


Ricketts brought in Epstein because he was the smartest GM on the market. He was a genius. But the way Cub management has handled this Dempster trade has been really dumb.


UPDATE 7-25-2012 3 P.M.:


The Braves GM says the Dempster deal is dead.
Dempster throws a tantrum in the dugout in Pittsburgh after being pulled from game (a loss).

THE RISK OF HOLDING ON

SPECULATION was that both Dempster and Garza would have been traded last week. But Epstein could not pull the trigger on any deals, even though interest was high on both players.

There may be many factors on why the Cubs are lingering on doing deals.

1. The Cubs may overvalue Dempster and Garza in the market. Teams won't give top ten prospects for a rental player. Teams may only give one high and two low level prospects for Garza.

2. The Cubs are waiting for a team on the fence to get desperate and "over pay" for a Cub player.

3. The Cubs have so many offers that they are in information paralysis mode.

4. Dempster won't waive his no trade.

5. Ownership may be pushing to keep the players in order to sell tickets in August and September.

The problem with waiting to the end is that there may be no buyers at the end.

Dempster had his scoreless streak snapped, so his value went down. Garza has a forearm, well maybe, a triceps injury. So no team is going to trade for a starter with an existing injury. Garza may have no value this week.

Family issues may come into play, too. School is starting soon. Garza is about to become a father. The players don't want to upset family routines.

So it is possible that both Dempster and Garza remain on the Cubs this year. And if so, in order to get a compensation pick for FA Dempster, the Cubs would have to offer him a $12 million offer. And guess what? Dempster could screw up the rebuilding blue print by taking the offer and staying a Cub. Likewise, Garza will make about $12 million in arbitration. So instead of $30 million coming off the books, only $6 million will.

METHOD OR MADNESS?

Owner Tom Ricketts invested millions in the Dominican Republic in order to create a pipeline of new talent into the organization. He left it to his "baseball people" to run. That means bringing in talent that can make it to the next level. Well, news from MLB this week was that two Cub Dominican camp players were suspended 50 games for failing drug tests. That is not a very good start for Camp Cubs.

Ricketts also said he wanted to instill "a Cubs Way" on how his players will play and present themselves as professionals. Again, he left it to his baseball people to implement a new Cubs way. Well, if character was part of the program, the Cubs latest international prospect signing is puzzling. 

Baseball America reports that the Cubs have signed Dominican right-hander Juan Carlos Paniagua to a contract with a $1.5 million signing bonus, which equates to 60% of next year's total international signing bonus. Under the new CBA, this one move hamstrings other international player signings for the next year.

But more troubling is the fact that his is the third time that Paniagua has signed a contract with a Major League team. In 2009, the Diamondbacks contract with him was voided due to the fact that the player presented "fraudulent documentation" including a false name. After a year suspension, the Yankees signed him but that contract which was also voided by major league baseball for fraud. 

Latin American and Caribbean players have a history of strange birth certificates, suspect documentation in order to claim they are younger (and therefore more valuable) than they really are in order to get a deal.  Paniagua lists his date of birth as April 4, 1990, the same as he did in his previous two MLB contracts. The question is whether the Cubs contract will also be voided by MLB. 

With most foreign players, information is vague. When Paniagua agreed to a $1.1 million Yankee bonus back in March, 2011, the reason for the suspension was unknown, but it turned into his second suspension after getting caught up in some identity and age fraud stuff two years earlier when he was "Juan Collado" and agreed to a $17,000 deal with the Diamondbacks in 2009. After that contract was voided, scouts reported that the pitcher apparently picked up some big time velocity (sitting 93-95 touching the high-90′s). And that is why the Yankees signed him as a power pitcher.

The Cubs stated that they are desperate for pitching so many this is a Hail Mary attempt to find a power pitcher.  But at age 22, this "prospect" needs to be as polished as a U.S. Division 1 college senior starter. There are no readily available statistics from the Dominican leagues. But Baseball America reports that Paniagua hasn't shown the same velocity he had when he signed with the Yankees—he sat at 93-95 mph at a May workout. But scouts saw an improved 81-84 mph slider  that still graded out behind his changeup. He also throws an occasional curveball, and while he was around the plate in Puerto Rico, his command and pitchability have been issues in the past.


So the Cubs signed a player who had a fraud issues with two other clubs. A player that suddenly bumped up his fastball on the radar gun to go from a $17,000 prospect signee to a $1.1 million bonus star in two years. And now, the Cubs sign him for more money than the Yankees even though his stuff has gone down and "his command and pitch ability have been issues."


We have recently read scouting reports with similar harsh words on a newly signed Cub prospect, Geraldo Concepcion, who was a multimillion dollar signee who is struggling greatly in Class A ball.
The trend for Latin bonus baby pitchers is not good for the Cubs.

DOUBLE SPEAK

Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune spoke to Cubs President Theo Epstein in regard to the the state of the Cubs. Many of Epstein's statements contradict the mission statement laid out by owner Tom Ricketts when Epstein was hired less than a year ago.


"We're hoping we're very competitive very soon," Epstein said. "Yet wanting it to be so doesn't make it so. You have to build an organization."

Ricketts told fans at the hiring that the Cubs would remain competitive. He said that there would be money to spend on free agents and build a minor league system. Ricketts' promise that the Cubs would remain competitive was necessary in order to preserve the season ticket base and keep fans coming to the ball park. 

"In certain deals, it is (pitching)," Epstein said. "You can express a preference for pitching, but if you're dealing with a club that has better position player prospects and you feel the position players in a certain system are a safer bet or offer higher upside, I don't think it's right to pigeonhole yourself to one situation."


It is apparent that Epstein is trying to get young, fast. He wants to trade veterans for young prospects, preferably pitchers. Reports have noted that in trade discussions, the Cubs are looking for under 21 prospects (A ball) which means that it will take years to develop through the system (if you promote them one level per year). Instead of being competitive, the Cubs appear to be big market bottom dwellers for the next three to four years, which would be unacceptable to the fans and ownership.

"As a whole, not specifically regarding potential deals, we need to add a lot of pitching to the system. It's not enough to have a handful or two. You need waves and waves coming through your system, and we don't have that. We hardly have even one wave coming, so we need to rebuild a lot of pitching depth."


It is ironic that this philosophy mirrors Jim Hendry's last five year plan: sign a ton of pitchers and see if any pan out, instead of correctly evaluating talent on an individual basis to get MLB talent at any position. Hendry drafted a lot of college pitchers because he needed to have an army of new arms ready each season. At one point, he had 2/3 of his 40 man roster filled with pitchers. And what happened? The system was without talent at key positions, especially third base, second base and power hitting corner outfield slots. It is so bad that Vitters is the only third base prospect in the organization. And Hoyer is not too keen on him, either.  Hendry rolled the dice on over-emphazing pitching and lost. Now Epstein is over-emphasizing pitching (at a riskier lower level of acquiring high school/teens in the last draft and in future trades). And that should be a major worry since he has said the team will not be competitive for years (which is exactly the opposite Ricketts said when he hired Epstein).
"It's a nice way to add talent to an organization without giving up talent," he said of free agent acquisitions. "But you can not make an organization that way. We have a lot of steps ahead of us that we need to take care of before we're in position to add a finishing piece or two through free agency."


However, the Cubs last playoff squad was primarily built through free agent signings. The idea that the sole focus of the Cubs organization now is to sign or trade for young minor league talent only means that the selective rebuild is now a demolition job. To foreclose the thought of signing a free agent because you are rebuilding is a narrow minded, pigeon-holed blindness in the reality of the business.

"We'll always be on every free agent and see if it's the right player or the right value. But if we sat around and drew up a plan and had free agency as the answer to most of our problems, we'd be on a fool's errand there."


The idea that free agency is not the answer to the Cubs problems may relate back to the issue of money. The Cubs are no longer the cash machine that the Tribune owned; attendance is down so revenue is down. Ricketts has begged the city and state for money to rehab Wrigley Field (but at the same time spent tens of millions of dollars on adjacent real estate purchases). One thing is certain: the Cubs payroll will begin to drop quickly starting next year as at least $30 million in contracts come off the books. The Cubs payroll will probably be below $95 million for 2013, which gets the Cubs into middle market levels. For every dollar of payroll saved, another dollar goes to ownership profit. If the Cubs lose 100 games in 2012 and another 100 or so in 2013, there may be a very small fan base left in 2014 when the "new prospects" begin to get ready to make their major league debuts.


But there are troubling signs that "the process" may be more important than promoting talent quickly. The Cubs now have a rule that they want position players to have at least 500 ABs at AAA before being promoted to the major league team. That means a full season in AAA. It seems like an arbitrary wall, and will not solve an injury problem during the season. 


In addition, there are stories that the Cubs are primarily focused in on trading Ryan Dempster to the point of not listening or processing other trade requests, like on Matt Garza or even Darwin Barney. If true, that means the decision making process is glacial in the front office. Epstein added another layer of management with his team over the retained Hendry team, but with all those executives you would hope that they could do more than one thing at a time. If not, the Cubs are doomed by seized managerial rust in the gears.


Then there are the reports that the Royals of all teams are interested in acquiring Garza. Many people say that is impossible; the Royals are not buyers. But in some respects, the new CBA and a minor league system that has produced some talent, the Royals --- a small market team that gets the benefits of revenue sharing and competitive balance pick ---- can make a deal for a veteran pitcher to anchor their staff for the next few years at $12 million/per. Garza fits that mold of a Greinke replacement. Garza will get $12 million in arbitration for 2013, and the Royals will offer him $12.5 million tender for 2014 (and if rejects it, the Royals get a first round compensation pick). The Royals can trade their new competitive pick (#1 in sandwich round) to the Cubs with some low level prospects for Garza. It would be like a small market team vulture picking the carcass of a fallen, bloated big city water buffalo but it makes some logical sense. It feeds the Epstein need to amass draft picks and young players. And it also plays well in the Royals scheme: a big name at a reasonable price and a high draft pick if he leaves for free agency in 1.5 years.


It is such a simple deal that there is no reason it should not get done quickly. But then again, Dempster is a free agent, riding a 33 inning scoreless streak. His value is at its peak. Ten teams may be in the mix. So the entire focus of the Epstein brain trust is looking over scouting reports for 10 teams to make prospect lists? One, that should have already been done before trade discussion start, and two, the Cubs brass should already have a blueprint of positions to fill throughout the grids of their entire system roster charts and lists of who is expected to fill those slots (internally or externally).


The Cubs have said that they want to remain competitive, but all signs point to the opposite. The Cubs want to trade their valuable veterans to gain a hoard of young pitching prospects, but it seems like they can't pull the trigger as quickly as say, a Kenny Williams whose trade for Kevin Youkilis has turned out to be the deal of the decade. Maybe the pressure on Epstein is so great that he does not want to make "a mistake," but in every deal there is risk. But to minimize risk, you must have quality information. But the Cubs always speak about the "process." The process is the key to success. 


We have come to learn that when people use doublespeak to discuss the importance of "a process," in reality, they are clueless on how to apply facts and experience to a given situation to get the correct result or solve a problem. Politicians are masters of the doublespeak answer. Epstein is trying hard to put a political polish to the rotten apple that is the current state of the Cubs. But the next twelve days will really tell whether Epstein and his crew have the ability to make excellent decisions in the trade market or whether they are all talk.