As spring training begins to wind down, opening day rosters are becoming quite clear. CBS Sports published this week a projected opening day lineup and rotation with closer for each team.
Our focus is on the NL Central. In 2012, the NL Central teams (excluding the Astros, now in the AL West) won a total of 408 games. If you divide 408 wins by 5 teams, the average is 81.6 wins/team. That is consistent with the average of 81 wins for a .500 club.
Using the published projected lineups, I ranked each team position player with his divisional peer. The ranking was 5 (for the best) to 1 (for the worst). This would equate to a total possible of 210 points. For each team rank point, it would project to 1.943 wins.
For the positional players, the points from the rankings finished as follows:
Reds 29
Cards 27
Brewers 25
Pirates 24
Cubs 15
For the pitchers (5 starters and closer), the points from the rankings finished as follows:
Reds 25 & Cards 25
Pirates 15
Brewers 13
Cubs 12
Total points were:
Reds 54 = 104.92 wins
Cards 52 = 101.04 wins
Pirates 39 = 75.78 wins
Brewers 38 = 73.83 wins
Cubs 27 = 52. 46 wins
From last year's standings and this projection:
Reds 105 wins = +8 wins from 2012 (97)
Cards 101 wins = +13 wins from 2012 (88)
Pirates 76 wins = +3 more losses from 2012 (79)
Brewers 74 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (83)
Cubs 52 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (61)
The Cardinals may project on paper as the most improved in the division, but the difference between the Reds is not enough to overcome the gap; even if the Reds repeat the same season, the Cards gain of +5 would still leave them only with 93 wins (6 GB). There will be a battle for first place, and a close battle for third place. The Cubs appear to be the bottom feeder by a wide margin.
March 14, 2013
March 13, 2013
ANOTHER OPINION
Jim Bowden writes a baseball column for ESPN. He comes from the perspective of being a former front office guy.
He wrote this week that the Cubs minor league system has been raising eyebrows in the past year. The organization jumped ten spots to sixth in the latest ESPN baseball prospect rankings.
Many scouts have been impressed by the batting shown by Javier Baez, Junior Lake and Jorge Soler. However, Bowden stated that:
all three have some “hit” tool issues. Odds are one of them never pans out and follows Corey Patterson and Felix Pie as Cubs prospects who failed to live up to the fans’ often unrealistic expectations.
However, Bowden praises one Cub prospect as "a slam dunk: center fielder Albert Almora. He was the Cubs’ first-round selection in last year’s draft and Bowden believes looks like a future All-Star.
Yes, there is a logical inconsistency in Bowden's statements regarding the young players. All prospects have a learning curve in order to improve their skills. It is highly unusual that a drafted player begins his professional career on a major league roster. That is why training and development is so critical in a baseball organization. Having the right teachers and right philosophy will create a steady stream of quality players (i.e. the Dodgers organization).
Baez, Lake, Soler and Almora are early in the careers. Almora has the least amount of pro experience so it is hard to judge that he will be better than the other three. Only Lake has a chance to reach AAA this year. His promotion may be more need based as the Cubs are devoid of third basemen at the higher levels.
I think the team's front office has higher expectations of Baez, Lake and Soler than the average Cub fan. Since so many scouts have positive reviews of the Cub prospects so far, it is unfair to make Patterson and Pie comparisons. (The opposite is true on another Cubs' vaulted prospect, Cuban pitcher Concepcion, whom many scouts ripped last season as a poor prospect in rookie-A ball). And some observers will question why with all the emphasis on pitching in the last draft, no pitcher has been labeled by other team scouts as a can't miss prospect.
Baseball player development is a hit and miss crap game. On average, one of ten prospects reach the majors. Maybe one in twenty become quality starters (2.5 + WAR). That means the Cubs have really a chance to have four players in their minor league system contribute to the major league roster in time. Apparently, the consensus is that those four are Baez, Lake, Soler and Almora.
He wrote this week that the Cubs minor league system has been raising eyebrows in the past year. The organization jumped ten spots to sixth in the latest ESPN baseball prospect rankings.
Many scouts have been impressed by the batting shown by Javier Baez, Junior Lake and Jorge Soler. However, Bowden stated that:
all three have some “hit” tool issues. Odds are one of them never pans out and follows Corey Patterson and Felix Pie as Cubs prospects who failed to live up to the fans’ often unrealistic expectations.
However, Bowden praises one Cub prospect as "a slam dunk: center fielder Albert Almora. He was the Cubs’ first-round selection in last year’s draft and Bowden believes looks like a future All-Star.
Yes, there is a logical inconsistency in Bowden's statements regarding the young players. All prospects have a learning curve in order to improve their skills. It is highly unusual that a drafted player begins his professional career on a major league roster. That is why training and development is so critical in a baseball organization. Having the right teachers and right philosophy will create a steady stream of quality players (i.e. the Dodgers organization).
Baez, Lake, Soler and Almora are early in the careers. Almora has the least amount of pro experience so it is hard to judge that he will be better than the other three. Only Lake has a chance to reach AAA this year. His promotion may be more need based as the Cubs are devoid of third basemen at the higher levels.
I think the team's front office has higher expectations of Baez, Lake and Soler than the average Cub fan. Since so many scouts have positive reviews of the Cub prospects so far, it is unfair to make Patterson and Pie comparisons. (The opposite is true on another Cubs' vaulted prospect, Cuban pitcher Concepcion, whom many scouts ripped last season as a poor prospect in rookie-A ball). And some observers will question why with all the emphasis on pitching in the last draft, no pitcher has been labeled by other team scouts as a can't miss prospect.
Baseball player development is a hit and miss crap game. On average, one of ten prospects reach the majors. Maybe one in twenty become quality starters (2.5 + WAR). That means the Cubs have really a chance to have four players in their minor league system contribute to the major league roster in time. Apparently, the consensus is that those four are Baez, Lake, Soler and Almora.
March 11, 2013
BAD SIGN
Ian Stewart is confident that he will be the Cubs opening day third baseman. Stewart is not worried that he injured his quad at the beginning of camp. He is not worried that he has not shown he has recovered from his wrist injury. He is not at all concerned that he has not played a single exhibition inning so far this spring. Stewart believes third base is his job. Period.
The hubris arrogance of Stewart is formed by the fact that the Cubs are devoid of any talent at third base. Luis Valbuena has been taking the most action at third. At best, he is a journeyman utility infield bench player. Josh Vitters tanked on his major league debut last season. He is set to start the season in AAA Iowa.
So Stewart can make his boast because there is no competition for his position. The lack of competition for roster spots is a bad thing, especially on a bad team.
One could argue that Stewart also has a hole card that Epstein Hoyer traded two good players for him. As a result, most general managers do not like to admit to their mistakes. So Stewart gets a free pass on the bust 2012 season in order for the GM to get some positive points if Stewart can play well in 2013. However, Hoyer has not been slow to cut players picked up on waivers. And the owner, Ricketts, may be wanting to contract salaries. Stewart would be paid a modest $2 million for 2013; but if he is cut, the Cubs are only on the hook for 20%, or the equivalent of three promoted minor league prospects (which may in the form of pitcher call-ups as the starting rotation continues to struggle.)
The only bright spot in spring has been Junior Lake. The AA shortstop has been playing third base in split squad games. In 10 games, he is batting .304 with 1 HR and 3 RBI. But the Cubs will not rush Lake to the majors this year. With Vitters at AAA, Lake will remain at AA to get extended playing time. Besides, management has its new rule that all prospects need 500 AB at AAA first to conclude their development. Which means Lake will not reach that goal until 2014.
Cubs' third base position will be a sink hole for the next several years.
The hubris arrogance of Stewart is formed by the fact that the Cubs are devoid of any talent at third base. Luis Valbuena has been taking the most action at third. At best, he is a journeyman utility infield bench player. Josh Vitters tanked on his major league debut last season. He is set to start the season in AAA Iowa.
So Stewart can make his boast because there is no competition for his position. The lack of competition for roster spots is a bad thing, especially on a bad team.
One could argue that Stewart also has a hole card that Epstein Hoyer traded two good players for him. As a result, most general managers do not like to admit to their mistakes. So Stewart gets a free pass on the bust 2012 season in order for the GM to get some positive points if Stewart can play well in 2013. However, Hoyer has not been slow to cut players picked up on waivers. And the owner, Ricketts, may be wanting to contract salaries. Stewart would be paid a modest $2 million for 2013; but if he is cut, the Cubs are only on the hook for 20%, or the equivalent of three promoted minor league prospects (which may in the form of pitcher call-ups as the starting rotation continues to struggle.)
The only bright spot in spring has been Junior Lake. The AA shortstop has been playing third base in split squad games. In 10 games, he is batting .304 with 1 HR and 3 RBI. But the Cubs will not rush Lake to the majors this year. With Vitters at AAA, Lake will remain at AA to get extended playing time. Besides, management has its new rule that all prospects need 500 AB at AAA first to conclude their development. Which means Lake will not reach that goal until 2014.
Cubs' third base position will be a sink hole for the next several years.
March 8, 2013
SOLD ON SALE
The White Sox locked up starter Chris Sale with a long term extension. Most people agree that it was a very good deal for the White Sox to lock up a young ace through his arbitration-peak years. Some fans question whether Sale and his agent left a lot of money on the table.
The deal was a five year extension worth $32.5 million (base). The contract also includes club options for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. The 23-year-old will earn $850K in 2013, $3.5MM in 2014, $6MM in 2015, $9.15MM in 2016 and $12MM in 2017. The White Sox have options for $2018 ($12.5MM) and 2019 ($13.5MM) with $1MM buyouts. CSN Chicago reports that the contract contains an bonus program that could make the total contract worth $60 million.
Why are young pitchers like Sale, Jonathan Niese, Derek Holland, Yovani Gallardo and Jon Lester, signing five year extensions worth more than $30 million only after two years of MLB service time?
First, it may the guarantee money. If a pitcher, especially one with health risks because of wind up or other issues, the incentive is to lock up as much guaranteed money as soon as possible.
Second, is to accelerate the level of arbitration money while discounting the overall contract value. If Sale did nothing, he would be paid slightly more than the league minimum of $500,000. So he gets a raise in 2013. His first year of arbitration usually yields around 25% of a comparable veteran starter salary (which today is around $13 million). That would be $3.25 million. The extension gives a tad more. Second year arbitration is around 50%, or around $6.5 million. The third year of arbitration is around 75% or $9.75 million. So the White Sox are getting a slight discount on the back end of the deal. Third, with the guarantee money settled, the contract will still expire when Sale is under 30, which is going to be a huge payday if he is healthy and continues to perform well.
Third, the risk of injury is apparent. Sale has seen ace John Danks go down for almost an entire season. And scouts still question whether Sale's quirky deliver will lead to injury issues.
The risk to the White Sox is that it has spent $32.5 million no matter what Sale accomplishes going forward. The White Sox have loathed the long term starter deals, but new GM Hahn is thinking more long term. But it makes sense to lock up two lefty aces in Danks and Sale to what are currently perceived as below market deals.
The deal was a five year extension worth $32.5 million (base). The contract also includes club options for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. The 23-year-old will earn $850K in 2013, $3.5MM in 2014, $6MM in 2015, $9.15MM in 2016 and $12MM in 2017. The White Sox have options for $2018 ($12.5MM) and 2019 ($13.5MM) with $1MM buyouts. CSN Chicago reports that the contract contains an bonus program that could make the total contract worth $60 million.
Why are young pitchers like Sale, Jonathan Niese, Derek Holland, Yovani Gallardo and Jon Lester, signing five year extensions worth more than $30 million only after two years of MLB service time?
First, it may the guarantee money. If a pitcher, especially one with health risks because of wind up or other issues, the incentive is to lock up as much guaranteed money as soon as possible.
Second, is to accelerate the level of arbitration money while discounting the overall contract value. If Sale did nothing, he would be paid slightly more than the league minimum of $500,000. So he gets a raise in 2013. His first year of arbitration usually yields around 25% of a comparable veteran starter salary (which today is around $13 million). That would be $3.25 million. The extension gives a tad more. Second year arbitration is around 50%, or around $6.5 million. The third year of arbitration is around 75% or $9.75 million. So the White Sox are getting a slight discount on the back end of the deal. Third, with the guarantee money settled, the contract will still expire when Sale is under 30, which is going to be a huge payday if he is healthy and continues to perform well.
Third, the risk of injury is apparent. Sale has seen ace John Danks go down for almost an entire season. And scouts still question whether Sale's quirky deliver will lead to injury issues.
The risk to the White Sox is that it has spent $32.5 million no matter what Sale accomplishes going forward. The White Sox have loathed the long term starter deals, but new GM Hahn is thinking more long term. But it makes sense to lock up two lefty aces in Danks and Sale to what are currently perceived as below market deals.
March 7, 2013
A LOW BAR
In the sleepy spring training camp, besides the injury news, comes the short feature that the coaches may have found their "new Joe Mather." One would think that is not earth shattering news. The powers that be are looking to Brian Bogusevic as a potential 5th outfielder, back-up first baseman. The left handed hitter is batting .444 this spring, but mostly in split squad games.
So why are the Cubs salivating over the "next" Joe Mather?
Mather, 30, was a utility player last season. He played OF, 3B, 1B and pitched a scoreless 1/3 of an inning. He had a woeful .870 fielding percentage at third. He was not a stellar hitter either. He batted .209 in 243 PA, with 5 HR, 19 RBI, 5 SB, 256 OBP, and a negative 2.0 WAR.
So when the Cubs coaches say they may have found their "new" Joe Mather, one should ask "why do you want to find another Joe Mather? He was terrible."
So why is Bogusevic such a prize?
He is 29 years old. He is from the Chicago area, so maybe his family will buy a few more baseball tickets this year. He played for the lowly Astros last season. He was a three-position outfielder, and pitched one inning in mop up duty. So he is not as versatile as Mather. He hit .203 in 404 PA, with 7 HR, 28 RBI, 15 SB, .297 OBP and a negative 0.1 WAR. Not very good.
And the concept of Bogusevic learning to be a major league quality first baseman during the few weeks of spring training is far-fetched pipe dream.
It goes to show that the Cubs interest in Bogusevic is an admission that the organization is devoid of any roster depth at the major league level. Bad teams rotate in journeymen major leaguers or the career AAAA talent that hangs on at the fringe of small market team rosters. The Cubs new management has had two years to bolster their AAA roster to find players for the back-up roles at third, first, second and pitching but they have failed to even budge on the huge talent gap. Instead, the emphasis has been on scouting and signing rookie and Class A players. That leaves the major league roster a patchwork of Mathers and Bogusevics to field a team.
So why are the Cubs salivating over the "next" Joe Mather?
Mather, 30, was a utility player last season. He played OF, 3B, 1B and pitched a scoreless 1/3 of an inning. He had a woeful .870 fielding percentage at third. He was not a stellar hitter either. He batted .209 in 243 PA, with 5 HR, 19 RBI, 5 SB, 256 OBP, and a negative 2.0 WAR.
So when the Cubs coaches say they may have found their "new" Joe Mather, one should ask "why do you want to find another Joe Mather? He was terrible."
So why is Bogusevic such a prize?
He is 29 years old. He is from the Chicago area, so maybe his family will buy a few more baseball tickets this year. He played for the lowly Astros last season. He was a three-position outfielder, and pitched one inning in mop up duty. So he is not as versatile as Mather. He hit .203 in 404 PA, with 7 HR, 28 RBI, 15 SB, .297 OBP and a negative 0.1 WAR. Not very good.
And the concept of Bogusevic learning to be a major league quality first baseman during the few weeks of spring training is far-fetched pipe dream.
It goes to show that the Cubs interest in Bogusevic is an admission that the organization is devoid of any roster depth at the major league level. Bad teams rotate in journeymen major leaguers or the career AAAA talent that hangs on at the fringe of small market team rosters. The Cubs new management has had two years to bolster their AAA roster to find players for the back-up roles at third, first, second and pitching but they have failed to even budge on the huge talent gap. Instead, the emphasis has been on scouting and signing rookie and Class A players. That leaves the major league roster a patchwork of Mathers and Bogusevics to field a team.
March 6, 2013
TRADE VALUE
It has been a pretty boring spring training. The only "news" from camp of note is the team video camera operator advancing in the team's bunting tournament.
So, the talk turns to the inevitable July trade deadline flea market sale of Cub talent.
What are the trade prospects?
Matt Garza would have been pushed hard at last year's deadline, but he hurt his arm. One would have thought he would be fully back in form by now, but he had another set-back injury at the beginning of spring training. As it stands today, he has the label of "injury prone" risk. Garza will be on the DL to start the season, so the idea of trading him before opening day is ZERO chance. Even a trade at the July deadline seems remote.
Carlos Marmol would have been traded to the Angels in the off season but for the Cubs allegedly panicking about Dan Haren's medical records. The Cubs worried about a pitcher's medicals? Really? But Marmol is an expensive closer in a weak closer market. Most teams now have an emphasis on starters than expensive relievers. Marmol has a limited no trade to at least 4 west coast teams (and that is where the monied owners live). The odds of Marmol being traded before opening day is around 10 percent; by the trade deadline 20 percent.
Alfonso Soriano has been the trade rumor mega-factory for the last several years. He is still owed $36 million. He was productive last year, but has the fragile body that screams "fragile." Soriano has a full no trade right. He has hinted that he would go to an east coast contender like the Yankees, but the Yanks are in no position to add old money to the roster. Besides, Soriano may be just telling those stories to make the fans think he is a good guy, a team player. Soriano is more comfortable on a team with low expectations, low stress - - so the odds of him agreeing to a trade are about 1 percent.
The Cubs signed the Scotts (Baker and Feldman) to short term deals for the sole purpose of having themselves rehab into trade bait. Baker will also start the season on the DL. Feldman has not looked sharp so far in camp. It would appear that neither Scott will be high on any team's "want list" by the trade deadline. The only advantage is that both are truly rent a players. The odds are low, around 10 percent, that one would be traded this year.
People still question why the Cubs re-signed Ian Stewart. Third base is thin, for sure. But Stewart had an injury bust 2012. And he came back into camp not fully healed; and then had a new injury that set back his playing time. If the Cubs signed Stewart as a player to be traded this season, it is now doubtful that Stewart will even make the opening day roster. The Cubs will probably cut him to avoid paying him his full contract sum.
The Cubs have several chips they wish to cash in on, but those players do not have very much trade value.
So, the talk turns to the inevitable July trade deadline flea market sale of Cub talent.
What are the trade prospects?
Matt Garza would have been pushed hard at last year's deadline, but he hurt his arm. One would have thought he would be fully back in form by now, but he had another set-back injury at the beginning of spring training. As it stands today, he has the label of "injury prone" risk. Garza will be on the DL to start the season, so the idea of trading him before opening day is ZERO chance. Even a trade at the July deadline seems remote.
Carlos Marmol would have been traded to the Angels in the off season but for the Cubs allegedly panicking about Dan Haren's medical records. The Cubs worried about a pitcher's medicals? Really? But Marmol is an expensive closer in a weak closer market. Most teams now have an emphasis on starters than expensive relievers. Marmol has a limited no trade to at least 4 west coast teams (and that is where the monied owners live). The odds of Marmol being traded before opening day is around 10 percent; by the trade deadline 20 percent.
Alfonso Soriano has been the trade rumor mega-factory for the last several years. He is still owed $36 million. He was productive last year, but has the fragile body that screams "fragile." Soriano has a full no trade right. He has hinted that he would go to an east coast contender like the Yankees, but the Yanks are in no position to add old money to the roster. Besides, Soriano may be just telling those stories to make the fans think he is a good guy, a team player. Soriano is more comfortable on a team with low expectations, low stress - - so the odds of him agreeing to a trade are about 1 percent.
The Cubs signed the Scotts (Baker and Feldman) to short term deals for the sole purpose of having themselves rehab into trade bait. Baker will also start the season on the DL. Feldman has not looked sharp so far in camp. It would appear that neither Scott will be high on any team's "want list" by the trade deadline. The only advantage is that both are truly rent a players. The odds are low, around 10 percent, that one would be traded this year.
People still question why the Cubs re-signed Ian Stewart. Third base is thin, for sure. But Stewart had an injury bust 2012. And he came back into camp not fully healed; and then had a new injury that set back his playing time. If the Cubs signed Stewart as a player to be traded this season, it is now doubtful that Stewart will even make the opening day roster. The Cubs will probably cut him to avoid paying him his full contract sum.
The Cubs have several chips they wish to cash in on, but those players do not have very much trade value.
March 4, 2013
FALLING IN PLACE
The Cubs are quickly making announcements to shore up the spring training news cycle.
So the shaky rotation is falling apart like radial tires after 60,000 miles:
1. Jeff Samardzija is the ace of the staff (?)
2. E. Jackson is #2.
3. Scott Feldman is promoted up the ladder.
4. T. Wood goes from possible AAA to 4th starter
5. C. Villanueva goes from bullpen duty to 5th starter.
It appears that both Matt Garza and Scott Baker will start the season (a month from now) on the DL.
For all the press releases from the front office that this year's pitching staff was better than last season, the reality is that statement is a fiction.
In other news, Steve Clevenger, the back up catcher from last season, is now trying to become a "super sub" by playing first, second, third and outfield in camp. The idea that a .200 hitting catcher trying to learn major league skills at four new positions in less than four weeks seems laughable, sad and strange. The Cubs brought into camp a "known" utility player in Brett Lillibridge, who can also play shortstop. Why the Cubs coaches want to create a forced competition for the last bench spot between Clevenger and Lillibridge is an old dime mystery novel. Inconsequential in the big picture.
If Sveum is looking for balance on his bench, Clevenger bats left handed (which starters at third and first base do). Lillibridge bats right handed. Clevenger has only come off the bench to play catcher and first. Lillibridge has more experience in the double switch context of in-game action.
Neither player is going to make a difference in how many more Cub victories there will be this year.
It is just an observation on how tangential spring training camps can be if the roster is pretty much set in December, especially for bad teams.
So the shaky rotation is falling apart like radial tires after 60,000 miles:
1. Jeff Samardzija is the ace of the staff (?)
2. E. Jackson is #2.
3. Scott Feldman is promoted up the ladder.
4. T. Wood goes from possible AAA to 4th starter
5. C. Villanueva goes from bullpen duty to 5th starter.
It appears that both Matt Garza and Scott Baker will start the season (a month from now) on the DL.
For all the press releases from the front office that this year's pitching staff was better than last season, the reality is that statement is a fiction.
In other news, Steve Clevenger, the back up catcher from last season, is now trying to become a "super sub" by playing first, second, third and outfield in camp. The idea that a .200 hitting catcher trying to learn major league skills at four new positions in less than four weeks seems laughable, sad and strange. The Cubs brought into camp a "known" utility player in Brett Lillibridge, who can also play shortstop. Why the Cubs coaches want to create a forced competition for the last bench spot between Clevenger and Lillibridge is an old dime mystery novel. Inconsequential in the big picture.
If Sveum is looking for balance on his bench, Clevenger bats left handed (which starters at third and first base do). Lillibridge bats right handed. Clevenger has only come off the bench to play catcher and first. Lillibridge has more experience in the double switch context of in-game action.
Neither player is going to make a difference in how many more Cub victories there will be this year.
It is just an observation on how tangential spring training camps can be if the roster is pretty much set in December, especially for bad teams.
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