MadBum had a bad arm last night. The Cubs radio team saw it immediately in the first inning when Bumgarner only threw two fastballs. At that point the Cubs had an advantage; batters could work the soft counts and increase the Giant's ace pitch count. It worked. Bumgarner was out of the game in the 5th.
Jake Arrieta was better than lowered expectations, especially when he hit a 3 -run homer to give the Cubs a large, early lead.
In an elimination game, you should not change what was working in the past. But Joe Maddon wanted to juggle and tinker the entire game. It showed the flaws in the Cub team.
Mike Montgomery threw 4 good relief innings, because he had to. Maddon had used everyone in the pen except C.J. Edwards.
Maddon burned through Wood, Rondon, Chapman and Grimm in the 8th inning.
The bullpen situation unraveled in the 8th when Maddon called upon Chapman to do something he told Joe in the regular season he was uncomfortable in doing: the multiple inning save. Chapman gave up the lead in the bottom of the 8th; the staff getting torched for 3 runs.
For some reason, Maddon panicked in the 8th, thinking that he had to win the series then and now.
But Kris Bryant hit a homer to tie the game in the 9th. This lead to a long, extra inning game with the Cubs short on bullets.
Montgomery was the only long reliever left in the pen. Some may say that was a roster mistake knowing that the Giants-Cubs play tight games. Further complicating the matter was Kyle Hendricks short start because of the line drive off the forearm. The keeping of only 11 pitchers may not be the critical issue unless you believe Cahill was a better choice than Coghlan. But Cahill would have given Maddon more relief innings than Grimm.
Montgomery gets the loss in the scorecard, but the loss really falls on the manager and how he used his roster during the game.
Now, after a long night game, the Cubs have to come back and regroup after giving the Giants the momentum and confidence to come back. The pressure is really on the Cubs tonight. And the team acquired John Lackey for his big playoff game experience.
October 11, 2016
October 6, 2016
A GIANT PROBLEM?
I was sitting in a bar talking to friends. The Mets-Giants game was on in the background. A nervous Cub fan wanted the Mets to win the wild card so it would be easier for the Cubs in the NLDS.
The Mets have lost two starters to the DL.
The Giants have playoff demigod, Madison Bumgarner.
So when an ex-White Sox player hits a 3 run HR in the top of the 9th in a scoreless pitchers duel, the anxiety of a Cub fan begins to emerge.
However, being the voice of calming reason, I said "it does not matter who the Cubs play. The Cubs are going to steamroll to the championship."
Last year's playoff run was unexpected. I went along for the ride.
This year's playoff run was expected. The team did not have any significant pitching injuries. The team has balanced veteran presence and young players maturing into All-Stars. This year I expect a championship. And so do the Cub players.
Jake Arrieta should have a massive mean chip on his shoulder when he squares off against Bumgarner in Game 2 in SF.
John Lackey will follow Arrieta with his own brand of teeth grinding contempt.
The Cubs won the season series 4-3. The Giants have an uncanny ability to play better than their roster on paper.
There are few analysts who believe that due to the playoff format, the Cubs are at a disadvantage in the NLDS. They believe the long layoff of five days is a major rust factor for the Cubs, the #1 seed. Second, the wild card victor has momentum on their side. Third, the best of five series favors the visiting team if they can take one of the first two games on the road. The pressure is on the home team Cubs to sweep the first two games.
But the series will come down to starting pitching match-ups.
Cueto vs. Lester is probably a draw.
Moore vs. Hendricks is advantage Cubs.
Bumgarner vs. Arrieta would be a toss up if Jake shows up as the 2015 Arrieta.
Samardzija vs. Lackey is advantage Cubs if Lackey can throw strikes and not be squeezed by the home plate umpire.
The Cubs have a 75 percent chance to win the NLDS. One would expect a 3-1 series win.
The Mets have lost two starters to the DL.
The Giants have playoff demigod, Madison Bumgarner.
So when an ex-White Sox player hits a 3 run HR in the top of the 9th in a scoreless pitchers duel, the anxiety of a Cub fan begins to emerge.
However, being the voice of calming reason, I said "it does not matter who the Cubs play. The Cubs are going to steamroll to the championship."
Last year's playoff run was unexpected. I went along for the ride.
This year's playoff run was expected. The team did not have any significant pitching injuries. The team has balanced veteran presence and young players maturing into All-Stars. This year I expect a championship. And so do the Cub players.
Jake Arrieta should have a massive mean chip on his shoulder when he squares off against Bumgarner in Game 2 in SF.
John Lackey will follow Arrieta with his own brand of teeth grinding contempt.
The Cubs won the season series 4-3. The Giants have an uncanny ability to play better than their roster on paper.
There are few analysts who believe that due to the playoff format, the Cubs are at a disadvantage in the NLDS. They believe the long layoff of five days is a major rust factor for the Cubs, the #1 seed. Second, the wild card victor has momentum on their side. Third, the best of five series favors the visiting team if they can take one of the first two games on the road. The pressure is on the home team Cubs to sweep the first two games.
But the series will come down to starting pitching match-ups.
Cueto vs. Lester is probably a draw.
Moore vs. Hendricks is advantage Cubs.
Bumgarner vs. Arrieta would be a toss up if Jake shows up as the 2015 Arrieta.
Samardzija vs. Lackey is advantage Cubs if Lackey can throw strikes and not be squeezed by the home plate umpire.
The Cubs have a 75 percent chance to win the NLDS. One would expect a 3-1 series win.
October 3, 2016
DYSFUNCTIONAL ORGANIZATION
Robin Ventura is not going to manage the White Sox in 2017.
Some may say good riddance. Others may still question the organization which put Ventura, who never managed at any level, in charge of a major league team.
Under Ventura’s leadership, the White Sox went 375-434 (.463) which included a second-place finish in 2012 followed by a fifth-place finish and three fourth-place finishes. The White Sox have now gone eight seasons without making the postseason.
Ricky Renteria, the current bench coach, is presumed to be promoted to manager. He was the short term Cub manager until the Cubs swooped in on Joe Maddon.
Renteria had been a coach in the Padres’ organization since 2003 and was promoted to bench coach in 2011. He left after the 2013 season. Renteria has one year of managing under his belt, leading the Cubs to a 73-89 fifth-place finish in 2014.
The first issue with the Renteria promotion is that it does not change the White Sox culture or structure. Renteria is like Ventura, not a guy will a dynamic personality. The coaching staff will remain pretty much the same - - - which may not motivate the players to play better.
The second issue is that the management of the Sox does not change. There is a conflict between chairman Reinsdorf's desires, President Kenny Williams retooling philosophy and GM Rick Hahn want to rebuild. Ownership wants to win now. The press thought the White Sox "won" the last two off-seasons with their roster moves, but the players woefully underperformed.
Until the management gets on the same page, the team will continue to struggle.
The third issue is why not have a full managerial search? Renteria may be a nice buy, speaks Spanish to Latin players, and a baseball lifer. But is he the right person for this job? In San Diego, his forte was helping develop young players. The White Sox roster is besieged with veterans.
The White Sox strength is that the minor league system is filled with quality pitchers. The weakness of the White Sox is that the minor league system is devoid of hitting talent and positional players. This leads to a muddy middle of the road team in a weak division.
Some may say good riddance. Others may still question the organization which put Ventura, who never managed at any level, in charge of a major league team.
Under Ventura’s leadership, the White Sox went 375-434 (.463) which included a second-place finish in 2012 followed by a fifth-place finish and three fourth-place finishes. The White Sox have now gone eight seasons without making the postseason.
Ricky Renteria, the current bench coach, is presumed to be promoted to manager. He was the short term Cub manager until the Cubs swooped in on Joe Maddon.
Renteria had been a coach in the Padres’ organization since 2003 and was promoted to bench coach in 2011. He left after the 2013 season. Renteria has one year of managing under his belt, leading the Cubs to a 73-89 fifth-place finish in 2014.
The first issue with the Renteria promotion is that it does not change the White Sox culture or structure. Renteria is like Ventura, not a guy will a dynamic personality. The coaching staff will remain pretty much the same - - - which may not motivate the players to play better.
The second issue is that the management of the Sox does not change. There is a conflict between chairman Reinsdorf's desires, President Kenny Williams retooling philosophy and GM Rick Hahn want to rebuild. Ownership wants to win now. The press thought the White Sox "won" the last two off-seasons with their roster moves, but the players woefully underperformed.
Until the management gets on the same page, the team will continue to struggle.
The third issue is why not have a full managerial search? Renteria may be a nice buy, speaks Spanish to Latin players, and a baseball lifer. But is he the right person for this job? In San Diego, his forte was helping develop young players. The White Sox roster is besieged with veterans.
The White Sox strength is that the minor league system is filled with quality pitchers. The weakness of the White Sox is that the minor league system is devoid of hitting talent and positional players. This leads to a muddy middle of the road team in a weak division.
September 28, 2016
BIG RAISE
The breaking news today is that Theo Epstein has signed a 5 year extension to stay with the Cubs.
In 2011, Epstein signed a deal worth $18.5 million.
It is reported that he is now the highest paid baseball executive, which would mean he would surpass the $8 million per year mark set last year by the Dodgers who signed Andrew Friedman away from Tampa.
If true, the Cubs extension gives Epstein a 220% raise from his last contract.
Actual terms of the deal have not been disclosed.
From my vantage point, I thought Epstein would have gone the "free agent" route to see if he could cash in with an equity position with another club. Last week there was a rumor that Epstein would leave baseball to get a "giant" payday in another field, such as using his analytical skills in investment banking or another business venture. These rumors were fueled by the fact that it took the Cubs an extremely long time to come to a deal with the team President (who only has a few weeks left on his original deal.) Further adding to the fire was that one of Epstein's core managers, scouting director Jason McLeod, was interviewing for a GM position in Minnesota.
It will be interesting to note whether this new deal gives Epstein more power over the budget to run the baseball operations. In the past, he has been put on a tight leash by the business side of the team structure.
Fans will be relieved that the architect of the current club will be around until the budding stars hit their free agency years.
In 2011, Epstein signed a deal worth $18.5 million.
It is reported that he is now the highest paid baseball executive, which would mean he would surpass the $8 million per year mark set last year by the Dodgers who signed Andrew Friedman away from Tampa.
If true, the Cubs extension gives Epstein a 220% raise from his last contract.
Actual terms of the deal have not been disclosed.
From my vantage point, I thought Epstein would have gone the "free agent" route to see if he could cash in with an equity position with another club. Last week there was a rumor that Epstein would leave baseball to get a "giant" payday in another field, such as using his analytical skills in investment banking or another business venture. These rumors were fueled by the fact that it took the Cubs an extremely long time to come to a deal with the team President (who only has a few weeks left on his original deal.) Further adding to the fire was that one of Epstein's core managers, scouting director Jason McLeod, was interviewing for a GM position in Minnesota.
It will be interesting to note whether this new deal gives Epstein more power over the budget to run the baseball operations. In the past, he has been put on a tight leash by the business side of the team structure.
Fans will be relieved that the architect of the current club will be around until the budding stars hit their free agency years.
September 27, 2016
100 + 6 TO GO
The Cubs won a milestone 100th game. They can now cruise into the playoffs with NL home field advantage.
It was reported that Joe Maddon is looking for an 11 man pitching staff (down from the normal 13) to increase the bench to 14 players.
It should be a fairly easy exercise to forecast the playoff roster for Round 1:
Starters: (8)
LF Bryant CF Fowler RF Heyward
3B Baez SS Russell 2B Zobrist 1B Rizzo
C Contreras
Bench: (6)
OF Soler
C Ross
C Montero
OF Szczur
OF Coghlan
IN LaStella
Rotation: (4)
Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey
Bullpen: (7)
Montgomery, Cahill, Wood, Edwards,
Strop, Rondon, Chapman
It was reported that Joe Maddon is looking for an 11 man pitching staff (down from the normal 13) to increase the bench to 14 players.
It should be a fairly easy exercise to forecast the playoff roster for Round 1:
Starters: (8)
LF Bryant CF Fowler RF Heyward
3B Baez SS Russell 2B Zobrist 1B Rizzo
C Contreras
Bench: (6)
OF Soler
C Ross
C Montero
OF Szczur
OF Coghlan
IN LaStella
Rotation: (4)
Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey
Bullpen: (7)
Montgomery, Cahill, Wood, Edwards,
Strop, Rondon, Chapman
September 16, 2016
A BREACH OF TRUST
A good general manager is a man of his word. Very few succeed by trying to rip off another club in a trade. Trades are supposed to be made for the mutual benefit of both sides.
So when MLB suspended the Padres GM for serious breach of protocol, it was a surprise.
San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller was suspended Thursday for 30 games without pay by Major League Baseball, hours after news hit that the Padres allegedly withheld player health information in hopes of getting the upper hand in trade discussions.
ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote that the Padres allegedly built a special database to document player health details while skirting MLB’s rules about injury information. In essence, the Padres kept two sets of records: One that was incomplete and shared with other teams and another that was complete and kept in-house.
The Padres were called into question because of their July trades with the Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins, which according to Olney, left teams thinking the Padres were using “strategic deception.”
In its announcement of Preller’s punishment, MLB didn’t comment on the specifics of its probe, saying only:
Major League Baseball has a central database for player health information, where teams are supposed to keep their notes on injuries. In the event of a trade, doctors for each team trade codes and look at player notes. According to Olney, the Padres started keeping all the important notes in their separate database this year.
So when MLB suspended the Padres GM for serious breach of protocol, it was a surprise.
San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller was suspended Thursday for 30 games without pay by Major League Baseball, hours after news hit that the Padres allegedly withheld player health information in hopes of getting the upper hand in trade discussions.
ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote that the Padres allegedly built a special database to document player health details while skirting MLB’s rules about injury information. In essence, the Padres kept two sets of records: One that was incomplete and shared with other teams and another that was complete and kept in-house.
The Padres were called into question because of their July trades with the Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins, which according to Olney, left teams thinking the Padres were using “strategic deception.”
In its announcement of Preller’s punishment, MLB didn’t comment on the specifics of its probe, saying only:
Major League Baseball has completed an investigation into the July 14th transaction in which pitcher Drew Pomeranz was traded from the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox. MLB’s Department of Investigations conducted the thorough review, which included interviews with relevant individuals from both Clubs. The findings were submitted to Commissioner Robert D. Manfred, Jr.
As a result of this matter, Major League Baseball announced today that A.J. Preller, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Padres, has received a 30-day suspension without pay.
MLB considers the matter closed and will have no further comment.Olney said at least three teams complained about the Padres to MLB.
Major League Baseball has a central database for player health information, where teams are supposed to keep their notes on injuries. In the event of a trade, doctors for each team trade codes and look at player notes. According to Olney, the Padres started keeping all the important notes in their separate database this year.
At the trade deadline, the Padres traded Drew Pomeranz the Red Sox and Andrew Cashner and Colin Read to the Marlins. Rea was hurt in his first start with the Marlins and in a highly unusual move, he was returned to the Padres
The Red Sox were angered when they learned about preventative treatment
Pomeranz was going through that wasn’t in his Padres notes.
In decades past, trades between teams were always "buyer beware." Each team had the responsibility to conduct a medical evaluation on a player before agreeing with a deal. MLB has streamlined the medical records process to help trade and free agent market evaluations.
The Padres intentionally deceived the other clubs by not putting in medical treatment into the central data base. It calls into question the trustworthiness of the San Diego organization in future team transactions.
September 8, 2016
CHERRY PICKS
With every successful sports franchise, leaders and managers tend to get looked over for promotions with other teams. It is trying to buy past success with a new employer.
Rumors have started to circulate that Cubs executives could be top talent to other organizations. There are strong rumors that the Twins are pursuing Cubs execs Jason McLeod or Shiraz Rehman for their top baseball operations job.
McLeod has been a part of Theo Epstein's inner circle from their Boston Red Sox days.
While Jed Hoyer worked with Epstein on Boston player acquisitions, contract negotiations, player evaluations and sabermetrics, McLeod's expertise is in amateur scouting.
The Twins, being a small market team, need to have a strong scouting and development department in order to compete with big money, free agent spending teams like the Detroit Tigers, Red Sox, or Yankees.
While Epstein's contract expires after the end of the season, it is unclear the status of McLeod's contract term. In any event, it is standard practice for most teams to allow an employee to interview for a promotion with another club.
As discussed previously, the Epstein contract extension situation with the Ricketts is strange. Why both sides have not concluded an extension after last season's success is baffling to industry insiders. It shows that there has to be some rift between the baseball and business sides of the organization.
So Epstein's management team may look to parachute to new positions. This is similar to what happened when Epstein's reign was coming to an end in Boston; many of his staff went elsewhere including to the Padres before rejoining him in Chicago.
So it will be no surprise that the other teams will want to hire Cub baseball executives this off-season.
Rumors have started to circulate that Cubs executives could be top talent to other organizations. There are strong rumors that the Twins are pursuing Cubs execs Jason McLeod or Shiraz Rehman for their top baseball operations job.
McLeod has been a part of Theo Epstein's inner circle from their Boston Red Sox days.
While Jed Hoyer worked with Epstein on Boston player acquisitions, contract negotiations, player evaluations and sabermetrics, McLeod's expertise is in amateur scouting.
The Twins, being a small market team, need to have a strong scouting and development department in order to compete with big money, free agent spending teams like the Detroit Tigers, Red Sox, or Yankees.
While Epstein's contract expires after the end of the season, it is unclear the status of McLeod's contract term. In any event, it is standard practice for most teams to allow an employee to interview for a promotion with another club.
As discussed previously, the Epstein contract extension situation with the Ricketts is strange. Why both sides have not concluded an extension after last season's success is baffling to industry insiders. It shows that there has to be some rift between the baseball and business sides of the organization.
So Epstein's management team may look to parachute to new positions. This is similar to what happened when Epstein's reign was coming to an end in Boston; many of his staff went elsewhere including to the Padres before rejoining him in Chicago.
So it will be no surprise that the other teams will want to hire Cub baseball executives this off-season.
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