Each major league team has a 40-man roster. In theory, the "best" organizational prospects are on the 40 man roster in order to be protected from Rule 5 drafts or easily promoted to the active 25-man team roster.
At the halfway point of the first season of the Epstein-Hoyer era, here are the players on the Cubs 25 man roster who are not currently active on the major league roster:
LHP Jeff Beliveau
RHP Alberto Cabrera
RHP Lendy Castillo (DL)
RHP Casey Coleman
LHP Gerardo Concepcion
RHP Marcos Mateo (DL)
RHP Blake Parker (DL)
RHP Chris Volstad
C Wellington Castillo
C Blake Lalli
INF Adrian Cardenas
SS Junior Lake
3B Ian Stewart (DL)
3B Josh Vitters
OF Dave Sappelt
OF Jorge Soler
OF Matt Szczur
These are the players most likely to be called up as replacement players during the season. Most have some major league experience, while a few are prized prospects who have received generous major league deals.
As for the pitchers, not much help in the short term. Castillo was a Rule 5 pick up who is being hidden on the disabled list to avoid returning him to the Phils. Castillo clearly was not ready to jump from AA to the majors. Beliveau looked good in spring training, but has been quiet this season. He has a few more years to develop. Cabrera has been moved to the minor bullpen and could develop into the Cubs future closer; he has a live fast ball in the high 90s. Coleman and Volstad are both failed starters who service time with the Cubs is numbered. Mateo and Parker are on the DL, and project to be fill in bullpen pieces not major rebuilding components. Concepcion was one of the big international splash signings, but as posted earlier, some scouts think he will be a bust.
As for position players, Castillo has been up and down - - - he may wind up as a back up catcher some day. Lalli appears to be a journeyman minor league catcher. Cardenas lost his utility role to Valbuena, but they seem to be interchangeable bench players. Stewart appears headed to the bust category. Lake is getting a lot of good press as a power hitting shortstop who most likely will move next year to 3B at Iowa (with most likely Vitters finally getting promoted to the big league team in 2013). Sappelt, who was part of the Marshall trade, appears to be blocked by a boatload of Cub outfield prospects. Szczur is another one of these football players returning to baseball - - - he has speed and good defensive skills in CF and most believe he will move up quickly through the system as a possible traditional lead-off hitter. Soler is the big unknown. The Cubs project him to be a big, power hitting corner outfielder. But no one has really seen him play at a competitive level.
You could say that the real Cub prospects are not listed on the 40 man roster yet because they are still at least a year away: Brett Jackson, Javier Baez, Robert Whitenack, Trey McNutt, Ben Wells, or Reggie Golden. Or, they have just been drafted like Alberto Almora, Duane Underwood or Pierce Johnson.
But the 40 man roster can give one a clue on the strengths and weaknesses of a team. The Cubs clearly need help in pitching, catching, third base and the outfield.
July 11, 2012
July 10, 2012
HARSH
CBS Sports report was quite harsh on one of Cubs new management's prized prospects:
The Cubs spent $6 million and a 40-man roster spot on 20-year-old Cuban pitcher Gerardo Concepcion, but scouts who have seen him pitch in the Class A Midwest League have come away totally unimpressed. "They're trying to tell people it's just mechanics that he needs to get straightened out," one scout said. "But I'm telling you, he stinks. If he was in a junior college game you were at, you'd leave." Concepcion is 2-6 with a 7.39 ERA in 12 starts for Peoria.
There are a few risks in signing prospects:
1. The younger the prospect, the more chance of failure than success.
2. There is a maturity factor that can impede development.
3. The younger the prospect, the more likely his stats are inflated because he faced lesser talent than older prospects (like college players).
4. Young, international prospects are a greater risk for all the above reasons plus language and cultural issues when they come to the U.S.
You don't spend $6 million in the dark hoping for the best; you normally would shoot yourself in the foot instead. Concepcion had an almost non-existent resume. Cuban baseball is still insulated, and the international teams play a limited schedule. It is very hard to judge the current standard of Cuban baseball. Some Scouts used to believe that a player on the Cuban national team could be at a talent level of major league-AAA caliber; but now most believe national players are developmental, around high A ball.
Concepcion had all the risk factors plus the "mystery" factor that no one had really seen him pitch in person. At the time of the player signing, many other clubs were stunned a) by the amount of money spent and b) giving a 20 year old a major league contract (and 40 man roster spot). Further confounding other organizations was the fact the Cubs sent Concepcion to Class A Peoria, where based upon the Cubs hype, he should dominate the competition.
When another scout opines that one of the alleged best 40 players in your entire organization "stinks," you have to consider whether it is just sour grapes or a really, really bad trend. At this point, objectively you have to lean toward the "stink" or bust label as a 7.39 ERA in 12 starts shows no improvement, only bad consistency.
In a broader context, this report sheds light on a nagging concern: Epstein is used to throwing money at roster problems and hoping that the problems resolve themselves. In Boston, he spent big money on free agents who turned out to be dead money contracts. Epstein took credit for Boston's championships, but local writers still defer to former GM Dan Duquette who drafted and built the core players on those teams as the real architect of the Red Sox success. Hoyer short term in San Diego yielded a press clipping portfolio of having one the of the best farm systems in the league, but after one anomalous year, the Padres have fallen back into the cellar.
Since the blueprint for the Cubs rebuilding, talent evaluation is critical. And at this point, there is very little good news on Cub prospect front. Epstein and Hoyer have concentrated on signing younger players (especially pitchers) to re-stock the system, but that means a longer redevelopment period with more risk. They have also spent more money on younger talent than the average club. The signing of high school outfielder Alberto Almora for $650,000 more than the slot figure of $3.25 million will cost the Cubs a reported luxury tax of $280,000. An extra million here and there suddenly adds up to payroll issues in the future at the major league level. Ricketts has claimed that the team is poor; he needs public money in order to rehab Wrigley. But signs point to the baseball side burning through money like there is no tomorrow.
The only optimistic catch has been Anthony Rizzo. Most people believe he is the real deal. However, he has not gone through the league once, and pitchers will make adjustments and find his out pitch (off-speed down and away). He will have to make adjustments unlike other fast starters like Micah Hoffpauir, who fizzled quickly once the league caught up to him. The only big trade of the off-season was Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart. Stewart was coming off a horrible, injury plagued season - - - and was a bust this year for the Cubs. That was a bad deal. The big free agent signing was David DeJesus to play RF. Recently, substitute Cubs broadcaster Dave Campbell remarked that DeJesus was at best a "fourth or fifth outfielder" because he does not hit for power or RBI production to be a corner outfielder or the speed and average to be a lead off hitter. The major league roster is filled with bench players who are starting because there is no depth.
The end of the year report card on Epstein's first season may be pretty harsh.
The Cubs spent $6 million and a 40-man roster spot on 20-year-old Cuban pitcher Gerardo Concepcion, but scouts who have seen him pitch in the Class A Midwest League have come away totally unimpressed. "They're trying to tell people it's just mechanics that he needs to get straightened out," one scout said. "But I'm telling you, he stinks. If he was in a junior college game you were at, you'd leave." Concepcion is 2-6 with a 7.39 ERA in 12 starts for Peoria.
There are a few risks in signing prospects:
1. The younger the prospect, the more chance of failure than success.
2. There is a maturity factor that can impede development.
3. The younger the prospect, the more likely his stats are inflated because he faced lesser talent than older prospects (like college players).
4. Young, international prospects are a greater risk for all the above reasons plus language and cultural issues when they come to the U.S.
You don't spend $6 million in the dark hoping for the best; you normally would shoot yourself in the foot instead. Concepcion had an almost non-existent resume. Cuban baseball is still insulated, and the international teams play a limited schedule. It is very hard to judge the current standard of Cuban baseball. Some Scouts used to believe that a player on the Cuban national team could be at a talent level of major league-AAA caliber; but now most believe national players are developmental, around high A ball.
Concepcion had all the risk factors plus the "mystery" factor that no one had really seen him pitch in person. At the time of the player signing, many other clubs were stunned a) by the amount of money spent and b) giving a 20 year old a major league contract (and 40 man roster spot). Further confounding other organizations was the fact the Cubs sent Concepcion to Class A Peoria, where based upon the Cubs hype, he should dominate the competition.
When another scout opines that one of the alleged best 40 players in your entire organization "stinks," you have to consider whether it is just sour grapes or a really, really bad trend. At this point, objectively you have to lean toward the "stink" or bust label as a 7.39 ERA in 12 starts shows no improvement, only bad consistency.
In a broader context, this report sheds light on a nagging concern: Epstein is used to throwing money at roster problems and hoping that the problems resolve themselves. In Boston, he spent big money on free agents who turned out to be dead money contracts. Epstein took credit for Boston's championships, but local writers still defer to former GM Dan Duquette who drafted and built the core players on those teams as the real architect of the Red Sox success. Hoyer short term in San Diego yielded a press clipping portfolio of having one the of the best farm systems in the league, but after one anomalous year, the Padres have fallen back into the cellar.
Since the blueprint for the Cubs rebuilding, talent evaluation is critical. And at this point, there is very little good news on Cub prospect front. Epstein and Hoyer have concentrated on signing younger players (especially pitchers) to re-stock the system, but that means a longer redevelopment period with more risk. They have also spent more money on younger talent than the average club. The signing of high school outfielder Alberto Almora for $650,000 more than the slot figure of $3.25 million will cost the Cubs a reported luxury tax of $280,000. An extra million here and there suddenly adds up to payroll issues in the future at the major league level. Ricketts has claimed that the team is poor; he needs public money in order to rehab Wrigley. But signs point to the baseball side burning through money like there is no tomorrow.
The only optimistic catch has been Anthony Rizzo. Most people believe he is the real deal. However, he has not gone through the league once, and pitchers will make adjustments and find his out pitch (off-speed down and away). He will have to make adjustments unlike other fast starters like Micah Hoffpauir, who fizzled quickly once the league caught up to him. The only big trade of the off-season was Tyler Colvin for Ian Stewart. Stewart was coming off a horrible, injury plagued season - - - and was a bust this year for the Cubs. That was a bad deal. The big free agent signing was David DeJesus to play RF. Recently, substitute Cubs broadcaster Dave Campbell remarked that DeJesus was at best a "fourth or fifth outfielder" because he does not hit for power or RBI production to be a corner outfielder or the speed and average to be a lead off hitter. The major league roster is filled with bench players who are starting because there is no depth.
The end of the year report card on Epstein's first season may be pretty harsh.
July 9, 2012
MID SEASON STANDINGS
The standings at the All-Star break usually determine the buyers and sellers as the trade deadline nears at the end of the month.
AL East:
Yankees turned a slow start into a 52-33 record and a 7 game lead on Baltimore. The Rays are 7.5 games behind and the Red Sox are 9.5 games behind. Unless the Red Sox get on a post break hot streak, they may be Sellers like the Blue Jays. The Yankees need a starting pitcher or two to balance their strong offense. The Orioles are just happy to be near the top, but may not have the financial footing to make any big moves.
AL Central:
The White Sox used a squad of unheralded rookie pitchers to shore up their rotation and bullpen to grind out a 47-38 record and a 3 game lead on Cleveland. The favored Tigers are 3.5 games behind and the Royals and Twins are far off the pace. Cleveland is looking for a serious bat for their weak line up. The Tigers are scouting pitching and infield help. The White Sox deal for Youklis has had outstanding returns (14 RBI in 13 games and good defense at third). The Royals may be sellers for the right price and the Twins have a high priced core of underperforming stars so it hard to say if the Twins will do anything except stand pat and try again next season with the same cast.
AL West:
The Rangers have been the dominate team, from the pre-season moves to the present. At 52-34, Texas has a 4 game lead on the Pujols-Wilson big free agent payroll Angels. Oakland and Seattle are not in contention and could be major "blow up the roster" trade partners for prospects. The Rangers appear to only want to tweak their roster with upgrades in the bullpen or bench role players. The Angels have promoted from within with rookie Mike Trout as a potential superstar in the making so they may not have to make deals.
NL East:
The Nationals had been so bad for so long their high draft picks are finally panning out in a big way. The Nats are in first with a 49-34 record, 4 games ahead of Atlanta. The Nationals overstocked on starting pitching and may have a nice trade piece in Lannan (LHP) for a line-up changer. The Braves pitching has been inconsistent and their line up has been re-tooled to be better defensively. The Braves could make a move for another starter or may think ahead to replace the retiring Chipper Jones at third. The Mets are 3.5 games behind and are on the fence. They could use help in the line up, especially in power numbers, and on the pitching staff. The Marlins are 9 games out and potentially the biggest pre-season bust in the league after spending lavishly in the off season. However, that title may go to the Phils, who are mired 14 games behind Washington with little hope for a turnaround. The Phillies are actively seeking to trade FA Cole Hamels, which could lead to a fire sale of their other veterans like Victorino.
NL Central:
This division was always slated to be the weakest in the majors. The Pirates are in rarified air, in first, with a 48-37 record, one game up on Cincinnati. The Pirates have been looking to upgrade hitting in the infield and are always looking for another starter. Pittsburgh does not have the money to add a big money contract to the payroll which should limit their trade options. The Reds have a pretty solid line up, so pitching upgrades are a possibility. The Cardinals have been racked with injuries, but only 2.5 games out means they could trade for a veteran starter and hope for a Pittsburgh fade. The Brewers are on the fence at 8 games out. The team could ship Greinke for high level prospects in the right deal, or try to extend Greinke and trade Marcum to the pitching starved AL. The Cubs and the Astros are out of it, but the Cubs have the most trade bait (Dempster, Garza, Soriano, LaHair, Soto, DeJesus, etc. - - - everyone except Rizzo and Castro.) The Cubs should be the most active trade partner this year.
NL West:
In a traditional close boxing match most pundits predicted, the Giants and the Dodgers are battling it out for first. The Dodgers have a slim half game lead over their rivals. The Dodgers have been scouting Cubs starter Dempster for weeks. The Dodgers could also use a first base bat (LaHair?) and bullpen help. The Giants starting pitching has been less than expected (Lincecum has the worst ERA in the league) but San Francisco is always in need of a bat or two. The Diamondbacks are another team on the fence; 4 games behind the leader but as a small market team may pursue neutral small deals to ride out the season. The Padres and the Rockies are out of contention and should be aggressive sellers. The Padres have had much interest in Headley and Quentin so one would expect new ownership to allow management to pull the trigger on such deals.
AL East:
Yankees turned a slow start into a 52-33 record and a 7 game lead on Baltimore. The Rays are 7.5 games behind and the Red Sox are 9.5 games behind. Unless the Red Sox get on a post break hot streak, they may be Sellers like the Blue Jays. The Yankees need a starting pitcher or two to balance their strong offense. The Orioles are just happy to be near the top, but may not have the financial footing to make any big moves.
AL Central:
The White Sox used a squad of unheralded rookie pitchers to shore up their rotation and bullpen to grind out a 47-38 record and a 3 game lead on Cleveland. The favored Tigers are 3.5 games behind and the Royals and Twins are far off the pace. Cleveland is looking for a serious bat for their weak line up. The Tigers are scouting pitching and infield help. The White Sox deal for Youklis has had outstanding returns (14 RBI in 13 games and good defense at third). The Royals may be sellers for the right price and the Twins have a high priced core of underperforming stars so it hard to say if the Twins will do anything except stand pat and try again next season with the same cast.
AL West:
The Rangers have been the dominate team, from the pre-season moves to the present. At 52-34, Texas has a 4 game lead on the Pujols-Wilson big free agent payroll Angels. Oakland and Seattle are not in contention and could be major "blow up the roster" trade partners for prospects. The Rangers appear to only want to tweak their roster with upgrades in the bullpen or bench role players. The Angels have promoted from within with rookie Mike Trout as a potential superstar in the making so they may not have to make deals.
NL East:
The Nationals had been so bad for so long their high draft picks are finally panning out in a big way. The Nats are in first with a 49-34 record, 4 games ahead of Atlanta. The Nationals overstocked on starting pitching and may have a nice trade piece in Lannan (LHP) for a line-up changer. The Braves pitching has been inconsistent and their line up has been re-tooled to be better defensively. The Braves could make a move for another starter or may think ahead to replace the retiring Chipper Jones at third. The Mets are 3.5 games behind and are on the fence. They could use help in the line up, especially in power numbers, and on the pitching staff. The Marlins are 9 games out and potentially the biggest pre-season bust in the league after spending lavishly in the off season. However, that title may go to the Phils, who are mired 14 games behind Washington with little hope for a turnaround. The Phillies are actively seeking to trade FA Cole Hamels, which could lead to a fire sale of their other veterans like Victorino.
NL Central:
This division was always slated to be the weakest in the majors. The Pirates are in rarified air, in first, with a 48-37 record, one game up on Cincinnati. The Pirates have been looking to upgrade hitting in the infield and are always looking for another starter. Pittsburgh does not have the money to add a big money contract to the payroll which should limit their trade options. The Reds have a pretty solid line up, so pitching upgrades are a possibility. The Cardinals have been racked with injuries, but only 2.5 games out means they could trade for a veteran starter and hope for a Pittsburgh fade. The Brewers are on the fence at 8 games out. The team could ship Greinke for high level prospects in the right deal, or try to extend Greinke and trade Marcum to the pitching starved AL. The Cubs and the Astros are out of it, but the Cubs have the most trade bait (Dempster, Garza, Soriano, LaHair, Soto, DeJesus, etc. - - - everyone except Rizzo and Castro.) The Cubs should be the most active trade partner this year.
NL West:
In a traditional close boxing match most pundits predicted, the Giants and the Dodgers are battling it out for first. The Dodgers have a slim half game lead over their rivals. The Dodgers have been scouting Cubs starter Dempster for weeks. The Dodgers could also use a first base bat (LaHair?) and bullpen help. The Giants starting pitching has been less than expected (Lincecum has the worst ERA in the league) but San Francisco is always in need of a bat or two. The Diamondbacks are another team on the fence; 4 games behind the leader but as a small market team may pursue neutral small deals to ride out the season. The Padres and the Rockies are out of contention and should be aggressive sellers. The Padres have had much interest in Headley and Quentin so one would expect new ownership to allow management to pull the trigger on such deals.
July 7, 2012
THE ANCHOR SINKS THE SHIP
When the Cubs blew up the bullpen in the off-season to rebuild the starting rotation, some critics felt that a team that is rebuilding should not destroy its best and set part for the sake of "over correcting" a known deficiency.
Bad teams are usually bad just about everyone, as the Cubs have shown all season long. But the bullpen has been Exhibit A since the beginning of the season. It was so bad that even Kerry Wood decided it was better to retire.
In last night's Mets opener, Carlos Marmol, the bullpen anchor, was back to his really bad form. Marmol had a four-run lead to hold onto and barely made it through the 9th.
"The ninth inning was exciting," rookie Anthony Rizzo said in the Tribune. "But it sure was good to win." Only a rookie can call "bad" the word "exciting."
With an 8-4 lead in the ninth, Marmol gave up a solo home run to Jordany Valdespin, walked the bases loaded and gave up a two-run single to Ike Davis to make it a one-run game. Manager Dale Sveum already had used Shawn Camp and James Russell and had Chris Volstad warming up in the bullpen in case of emergency.
"If they tied it, he was out," Sveum said. "(Manny) Corpas was down with back spasms, so it would've been Volstad."
But Marmol induced Lucas Duda to hit a liner back to him, and he threw to Rizzo for the game-ending double play.
Bad teams are usually bad just about everyone, as the Cubs have shown all season long. But the bullpen has been Exhibit A since the beginning of the season. It was so bad that even Kerry Wood decided it was better to retire.
In last night's Mets opener, Carlos Marmol, the bullpen anchor, was back to his really bad form. Marmol had a four-run lead to hold onto and barely made it through the 9th.
"The ninth inning was exciting," rookie Anthony Rizzo said in the Tribune. "But it sure was good to win." Only a rookie can call "bad" the word "exciting."
With an 8-4 lead in the ninth, Marmol gave up a solo home run to Jordany Valdespin, walked the bases loaded and gave up a two-run single to Ike Davis to make it a one-run game. Manager Dale Sveum already had used Shawn Camp and James Russell and had Chris Volstad warming up in the bullpen in case of emergency.
"If they tied it, he was out," Sveum said. "(Manny) Corpas was down with back spasms, so it would've been Volstad."
But Marmol induced Lucas Duda to hit a liner back to him, and he threw to Rizzo for the game-ending double play.
Volstad, a failed starter, as a reliever to your erratic closer?? Fans were staring into the abyss of hell with that notion.
The future of the bullpen is shaky. Marmol, 29, is owed $9.8 million for 2013. He is a free agent in 2014. Currently, he has zero trade value and his contract is an anchor around his neck. In 2012, he is 1-2. 5.61 ERA in 31 games. He has pitched 25.2 IP, 20 H, 28 BB, 33K, 1.870 WHIP and 8 saves. His lack of control and no confidence in his fastball (which is his now secondary pitch) makes him more of a batting practice pitcher than a major league closer.
But there are not many options. Former Rockies closer and rehab project de jour, Manny Corpas, is now considered injury prone. Corpas, 29, has given the Cubs 0-0 record, 1.98 ERA in 13 games. He has only pitched 13.2 IP, 10 H, 8 BB, 9K, 1.171 WHIP. He can go through arbitration and retained to 2014, but that seems to be a waste of a roster space long term.
Another reconstruction project is Shawn Camp. Camp, 36, is 2-4, 2.86 ERA in 42 games. He has pitched 44 IP, 39 H, 12 BB, 1.114 WHIP and one save. He has been the random plug in a leaky bullpen. But at age 36, he is not the future and is not part of the rebuilding plans.
From the Cubs own system, James Russell, 26, appears to have developed into a solid lefty reliever. He is 2-0, 2.86 ERA in 42 games. He has pitched 40.2 IP, 36 H, 18 BB, 1.254 WHIP and 2 saves. His father, Jeff Russell, was a major league closer. James does not have the overpowering stuff to be a consistent closer, but he is a valuable piece (like Sean Marshall was last season) in any bullpen.
Rafael Dolis looks like closer material. He has the size and look of the Lee Smith-type reliever. Dolis, 24, is 2-4, 6.75 ERA in 25 games. In his 26.2 IP, he has 23 H, 20 BB, 11K, 1.613 WHIP and 4 saves. He was the team save leader when he was last demoted to Iowa. Since that point, Marmol took over the closer role from the bullpen committee. Dolis' stats are high for a reliever, but this is his first extended tour with the Cubs. It is unknown whether he will develop into a quality reliever, but this is the year to test him.
Complicating the problem is that the Cubs farm system is devoid of AAA and AA pitchers who can immediately fill needs in the rotation or the bullpen. The Cubs drafted 22 pitchers, but almost all will start out in instructional- rookie ball and will not make it to AAA for three or four years.
The only way to trade Marmol at this point would be to package him with other players the trade partner really needs (a starter in Dempster or an infielder like Barney) PLUS eat most of Marmol's remaining salary for 2012 and 2013. If every trade requires the Cubs to pay to get rid of its dead money contracts, there will be no budget for the team to fill in roster spots with veteran free agents in 2013 and 2014. And that is the Catch-22 the Cubs find themselves: their star specialists are too expensive and/or too bad to trade for prospects.
The future of the bullpen is shaky. Marmol, 29, is owed $9.8 million for 2013. He is a free agent in 2014. Currently, he has zero trade value and his contract is an anchor around his neck. In 2012, he is 1-2. 5.61 ERA in 31 games. He has pitched 25.2 IP, 20 H, 28 BB, 33K, 1.870 WHIP and 8 saves. His lack of control and no confidence in his fastball (which is his now secondary pitch) makes him more of a batting practice pitcher than a major league closer.
But there are not many options. Former Rockies closer and rehab project de jour, Manny Corpas, is now considered injury prone. Corpas, 29, has given the Cubs 0-0 record, 1.98 ERA in 13 games. He has only pitched 13.2 IP, 10 H, 8 BB, 9K, 1.171 WHIP. He can go through arbitration and retained to 2014, but that seems to be a waste of a roster space long term.
Another reconstruction project is Shawn Camp. Camp, 36, is 2-4, 2.86 ERA in 42 games. He has pitched 44 IP, 39 H, 12 BB, 1.114 WHIP and one save. He has been the random plug in a leaky bullpen. But at age 36, he is not the future and is not part of the rebuilding plans.
From the Cubs own system, James Russell, 26, appears to have developed into a solid lefty reliever. He is 2-0, 2.86 ERA in 42 games. He has pitched 40.2 IP, 36 H, 18 BB, 1.254 WHIP and 2 saves. His father, Jeff Russell, was a major league closer. James does not have the overpowering stuff to be a consistent closer, but he is a valuable piece (like Sean Marshall was last season) in any bullpen.
Rafael Dolis looks like closer material. He has the size and look of the Lee Smith-type reliever. Dolis, 24, is 2-4, 6.75 ERA in 25 games. In his 26.2 IP, he has 23 H, 20 BB, 11K, 1.613 WHIP and 4 saves. He was the team save leader when he was last demoted to Iowa. Since that point, Marmol took over the closer role from the bullpen committee. Dolis' stats are high for a reliever, but this is his first extended tour with the Cubs. It is unknown whether he will develop into a quality reliever, but this is the year to test him.
Complicating the problem is that the Cubs farm system is devoid of AAA and AA pitchers who can immediately fill needs in the rotation or the bullpen. The Cubs drafted 22 pitchers, but almost all will start out in instructional- rookie ball and will not make it to AAA for three or four years.
The only way to trade Marmol at this point would be to package him with other players the trade partner really needs (a starter in Dempster or an infielder like Barney) PLUS eat most of Marmol's remaining salary for 2012 and 2013. If every trade requires the Cubs to pay to get rid of its dead money contracts, there will be no budget for the team to fill in roster spots with veteran free agents in 2013 and 2014. And that is the Catch-22 the Cubs find themselves: their star specialists are too expensive and/or too bad to trade for prospects.
July 6, 2012
GARZA AUDITION
It was almost painful to watch as it probably was to scout. Matt Garza struggled in the first inning against the Braves last night. But it did show the stark difference between two clubs: one rebuilding but trying to win and the other a professional contender in the midst of a pennant race.
Garza threw 44 pitches in the first inning. In this era of pitch counts, Garza had used up almost half of his bullets in one prolonged inning, giving up four runs in the process. What really did Garza in was the "quality at bats" by the Braves hitters, who kept fouling off pitches and running the pitch count high at bat after at bat. Juan Francisco had an epic 15 pitch at-bat. He followed that up in the fourth inning with a 12-pitch at-bat. In this era of pitch counts, a team that can make the starter throw more pitches early will knock him out quicker. And that is what happened last night; Garza lasted only 4 innings, with Garza served up three home runs in a 7-3 loss
It is the second marginal outing in a row for Garza. He trade value may be slipping as teams will look toward bigger names in the trade market, like Cole Hamels of Zach Greinke, if they come on the market. Garza's All-Star break numbers are not stellar with a 4-7 record and 4.32 ERA.
Garza was frustrated by his performance, but his manager did not help his cause or trade value.
The Tribune asked Garza about his performance.
"Pretty crappy," he said. "I started out great, got sick, and then it just went to a crap show from there. I pride myself on what I do, and I'm not too happy with the way I ended this half."
"Francisco killed the whole outing really," manager Dale Sveum said, adding Garza has fallen into a pattern of getting two strikes and not being able to put batters away.
Quality starting pitchers know how to "put batters away." Sveum basically said his starter is ineffective in putting batters away, especially when ahead in the count. This pattern will affect the trade value placed on Garza by other teams. Teams don't do "change of scenery" trades during a pennant chase; teams want quality pitchers to fill an immediate need to produce wins.
Garza threw 44 pitches in the first inning. In this era of pitch counts, Garza had used up almost half of his bullets in one prolonged inning, giving up four runs in the process. What really did Garza in was the "quality at bats" by the Braves hitters, who kept fouling off pitches and running the pitch count high at bat after at bat. Juan Francisco had an epic 15 pitch at-bat. He followed that up in the fourth inning with a 12-pitch at-bat. In this era of pitch counts, a team that can make the starter throw more pitches early will knock him out quicker. And that is what happened last night; Garza lasted only 4 innings, with Garza served up three home runs in a 7-3 loss
It is the second marginal outing in a row for Garza. He trade value may be slipping as teams will look toward bigger names in the trade market, like Cole Hamels of Zach Greinke, if they come on the market. Garza's All-Star break numbers are not stellar with a 4-7 record and 4.32 ERA.
Garza was frustrated by his performance, but his manager did not help his cause or trade value.
The Tribune asked Garza about his performance.
"Pretty crappy," he said. "I started out great, got sick, and then it just went to a crap show from there. I pride myself on what I do, and I'm not too happy with the way I ended this half."
"Francisco killed the whole outing really," manager Dale Sveum said, adding Garza has fallen into a pattern of getting two strikes and not being able to put batters away.
Quality starting pitchers know how to "put batters away." Sveum basically said his starter is ineffective in putting batters away, especially when ahead in the count. This pattern will affect the trade value placed on Garza by other teams. Teams don't do "change of scenery" trades during a pennant chase; teams want quality pitchers to fill an immediate need to produce wins.
So far, Garza has not shown he can produce wins.
July 3, 2012
GARZA
This year will be an interesting trade market for starters if rumors are true that the Phils may market Cole Hamels (free agent walk year) and the Brewers market Zach Greinke.
The question is whether Cubs Matt Garza gets lost in the shuffle, or becomes more a value play for teams looking for another arm for the stretch drive.
Garza is 28. He has been in the majors for 7 years. He has pitched well in the high intensity AL East against the Yankees and Red Sox. He has a type A personality and hyperactive bench guy. But in his two years in Chicago, he may becoming a frustrated pitchers due to lack of offensive support.
In 2011, Garza was 10-10, 3.32 ERA, 198 IP, 1.258 WHIP and 3.13 K/BB ratio. All solid numbers.
In 2012, Garza is 5-6, 4.01 ERA, 89.2 IP, 1.160 WHIP, and 3.08 K/BB ratio. More earned runs but on par with last season.
For his career, Garza is 56-60, 3.85 ERA, 1.290 WHIP and 2.38 K/BB ratio. His best season was 2010 with the Rays, going 15-10.
Despite the apparent consistency, Garza's record hovers around .500. Is this a No. 1 starter profile? Can you build your rotation around him?
Teams want an anchor No. 1 guy who wins 6 out of every 10 starts; takes the ball and ends losing streaks. Garza clearly is not in the league of a Halladay, Sabathia or Kershaw.
That is why Garza's name is always on the trade rumor board. The Cubs gave up five prospects for him. It is doubtful that the Cubs will get that much in return. Garza has one more year of arbitration left before free agency (2014) so he can be expected to earn at least $12 million next season.
The Cubs have to balance this against what the 2013 rotation will be without him:
WITH: Garza, Samardzija, Maholm, T. Wood, (???????)
WITHOUT: Samardzija, Maholm, T. Wood, (??????), (??????)
All of these players would be pitching in slots above their talent level. Samardzija is not a #1 or #2 starter. Maholm appears to be a #4 and T. Wood a #4/5.
And the tea leaves forecast that the Cubs will not attempt to re-sign Dempster ($14 million) and Zambrano's contract expires ($18 million), so the Cubs are not going to spend that $32 million salary relief in 2013. If they trade Garza, the salary relief expands to nearly $41 million for 2013. With declining attendance at Wrigley, money management will become a critical factor on how the baseball team is going to be run in the short term. Rebuilding means shrinking the salary structure to take the pain of losing seasons. Trading Garza would fit into that blueprint.
On the other side of the coin, some would say the Cubs need to spend the $12 million and keep Garza as the #1 just for the sake of appearances. Garza is a durable starter who will go out and pitch well for 30-33 starts. You have to give the fans more than just Rizzo and Castro's offensive potential. And the fact that there are no AAA starting pitchers ready to take Garza's spot (let alone the vacant #4 and #5 slots), that factors into keeping Garza (until the trade deadline next season). Otherwise, you have to spend almost as much money on journeymen starters who won't perform well and have no place in the long term future of the club.
Garza is more "tradeable" than Dempster, but Dempster is probably going to get dealt first. Then, the Cubs have to decide whether Garza is more valuable in anchoring the rotation for 2013 or more valuable getting "assets" ready for a run in 2015.
The question is whether Cubs Matt Garza gets lost in the shuffle, or becomes more a value play for teams looking for another arm for the stretch drive.
Garza is 28. He has been in the majors for 7 years. He has pitched well in the high intensity AL East against the Yankees and Red Sox. He has a type A personality and hyperactive bench guy. But in his two years in Chicago, he may becoming a frustrated pitchers due to lack of offensive support.
In 2011, Garza was 10-10, 3.32 ERA, 198 IP, 1.258 WHIP and 3.13 K/BB ratio. All solid numbers.
In 2012, Garza is 5-6, 4.01 ERA, 89.2 IP, 1.160 WHIP, and 3.08 K/BB ratio. More earned runs but on par with last season.
For his career, Garza is 56-60, 3.85 ERA, 1.290 WHIP and 2.38 K/BB ratio. His best season was 2010 with the Rays, going 15-10.
Despite the apparent consistency, Garza's record hovers around .500. Is this a No. 1 starter profile? Can you build your rotation around him?
Teams want an anchor No. 1 guy who wins 6 out of every 10 starts; takes the ball and ends losing streaks. Garza clearly is not in the league of a Halladay, Sabathia or Kershaw.
That is why Garza's name is always on the trade rumor board. The Cubs gave up five prospects for him. It is doubtful that the Cubs will get that much in return. Garza has one more year of arbitration left before free agency (2014) so he can be expected to earn at least $12 million next season.
The Cubs have to balance this against what the 2013 rotation will be without him:
WITH: Garza, Samardzija, Maholm, T. Wood, (???????)
WITHOUT: Samardzija, Maholm, T. Wood, (??????), (??????)
All of these players would be pitching in slots above their talent level. Samardzija is not a #1 or #2 starter. Maholm appears to be a #4 and T. Wood a #4/5.
And the tea leaves forecast that the Cubs will not attempt to re-sign Dempster ($14 million) and Zambrano's contract expires ($18 million), so the Cubs are not going to spend that $32 million salary relief in 2013. If they trade Garza, the salary relief expands to nearly $41 million for 2013. With declining attendance at Wrigley, money management will become a critical factor on how the baseball team is going to be run in the short term. Rebuilding means shrinking the salary structure to take the pain of losing seasons. Trading Garza would fit into that blueprint.
On the other side of the coin, some would say the Cubs need to spend the $12 million and keep Garza as the #1 just for the sake of appearances. Garza is a durable starter who will go out and pitch well for 30-33 starts. You have to give the fans more than just Rizzo and Castro's offensive potential. And the fact that there are no AAA starting pitchers ready to take Garza's spot (let alone the vacant #4 and #5 slots), that factors into keeping Garza (until the trade deadline next season). Otherwise, you have to spend almost as much money on journeymen starters who won't perform well and have no place in the long term future of the club.
Garza is more "tradeable" than Dempster, but Dempster is probably going to get dealt first. Then, the Cubs have to decide whether Garza is more valuable in anchoring the rotation for 2013 or more valuable getting "assets" ready for a run in 2015.
July 2, 2012
NEW TRADE ERA
The unintended consequences of the new collective bargaining agreement are becoming apparent. More teams are spending mad money on international free agents before the July salary cap deadline of $2.9 million. The Cubs signed Soler to a 9 year, $30 million contract to beat the signing restrictions.
In addition, teams that used to trade for pending free agents ("rent a player") did so a) for a pennant push and b) they could receive supplemental draft picks if the rented player went into free agency.
According to FoxSports, the trade game has changed:
In addition, teams that used to trade for pending free agents ("rent a player") did so a) for a pennant push and b) they could receive supplemental draft picks if the rented player went into free agency.
According to FoxSports, the trade game has changed:
If a player has six or more years of major-league service and has no contract for the upcoming season, then he's a free agent. In baseball, being a free agent means you're free to sell your services to any team you wish.
But that's not all there is to the process. Teams losing a highly regarded free agent can be compensated in the form of draft picks. That will happen less often under the new collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect with the 2012 season.
Before, players were classified as Type A or Type B free agents based on statistical comparisons to other players at the same position. The level of draft pick compensation — first round, second round, etc. — hinged on their Type A or Type B status. Now, the system is simpler. For one thing, only players who spend the entire season with one team will have compensation attached to them.
All eligible players will become free agents after the World Series is over. A quiet period of five days will follow, during which only the player’s most recent team will be able to negotiate with him.
By the end of the quiet period, the team must decide whether it will tender the player a “qualifying offer” — a guaranteed one-year contract equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players from the previous season. For the 2012-2013 offseason, the figure will be between $12 million and $13 million — a high enough number that a relatively small group of players will receive the offer. (Almost no relief pitchers will earn that much, meaning more free-agent-eligible relievers will be traded in-season under this CBA.)
If a player is tendered the qualifying offer, he will have seven days to decline or accept. If he declines, his soon-to-be former club will receive two draft picks if and when he signs elsewhere. Let’s say Team A loses a free agent to Team B. Team A will receive Team B’s first-round selection the following year (unless it is one of the top 10 picks, in which case Team B’s next pick is substituted), along with a pick in the sandwich round, between the first and second.
There is LESS incentive for a contending team to pick up a rent-a-player. Since a rental player is not on your squad for the ENTIRE season, NO compensation is allowed when he bolts to free agency. So general managers have to weigh in that factor of whether the trade is really an attempt to sign the player to a contract extension. The new system also hinders bottom dwelling clubs from trading their pending free agents for prospects because trade partners will not part with top prospects if the rent-a-player is not going to re-sign a contract extension. You will probably see smaller deals being done like the Yankees weekend acquisition of relief pitcher Chad Qualls from the Phillies for "a player to be named later or cash." Usually, those players to be named are low level minor leaguers or a cash sum of $25,000 to $100,000.
Then you have some veteran players with no trade clauses, 10 and 5 rights, or limited trade approval contract deals that can veto trades. Houston's Carlos Lee vetoed a trade to the Dodgers. Apparently, he preferred the battle for last place over a pennant chase. But many veteran players would rather stay in the town that they currently play for family or business reasons than relocate across the country and play for a new team. Old habits are hard to change. Lee still may get traded, but he may not be a content player.
The current prediction is that general managers have to be more careful than ever in trying to make deals this season. It may make more sense to hold on to your own pending free agents in the hopes of getting high draft compensation picks (which probably are more valuable in the rebuilding program than minor level trade prospects).
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