December 31, 2015

THE THREE AMIGOS

Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Alex Gordon have something in common. They are all outfielders and free agents in a market that seems to be moving at a glacier's pace.

The problem is valuation. What teams are willing to spend vs. a player's expectations. Skewed in the discussion was Jason Heyward's 8 year/$184 million contract (which is less because of the two opt out years). It really calculates to a 3 year/$85.5 million deal (including signing bonus) or a very high $28.5 million AAV.

Heyward, 26, had a 6.5 WAR in 2015 and was paid $7.5 million. His production value was $37.5 million last year. He was due a substantial raise.

Upton, 28, had a 4.4 WAR in 2015, and he was paid $14.5 million. His production value was $25 million last year.

Cespedes, 30, had a 6.3 WAR and was paid $10.5 million last season. His production value was $35.9 million.

Gordon, 31, had a down WAR (dropping from 6.6 to 2.8). He was paid $12.5 million last season. His production value was $15.96 million.

Age is clearly a factor. A player over the age of 30 is starting his decline (as evidenced by Gordon's last two seasons).

MLBTR estimated that Upton would receive $147 million, Cespedes $140 million and Gordon $105 million this off-season. With Heyward's deal moving the meter higher, there may be team push back at giving any of these players $25 million AAV.

Each of the free agents has issues. Upton has beenhaving a dropping batting average and inconsistent play. Cespedes has been on four teams in five years which leads some to speculate he may have clubhouse issues. Gordon is being productive more on the defensive end of the scale and GMs do not like to pay for defense alone.

Each player agent can argue that his client is good as Heyward so they should be in the $185 million contract range.

The market is further depressed because there has been no reported interest by any big market money teams (Yankees, Angels, Rangers) on any of these players. Even teams that lost out on the David Price sweepstakes, like the Cardinals, have not used that budget money on signing any of the free agent outfielders.

Which player will blink first and sign to re-set this outfield market?

December 29, 2015

THE HIGH COST OF RENTAL PLAYERS

MLBTR reports that the Yankees paid a high price to acquire a closer.

After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.

Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, is set to become a free agent in 2017. But there is a domestic violence allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by the league, and if he is found in violation of the league’s new domestic violence policy, he could fall short of the six years service time needed to become a free agent. It would seem the Yankees acquired Chapman in order to have exclusive negotiating rights to him during the 2016 season.

Cincinnati is the garage sale rebuild mode after trading All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox. The Reds have added two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second tier of prospects (Jagielo  #6 prospect and Davis #10 prospect) in addition to a pair of prospects that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball America.

Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the game.

As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.

The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter.  The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23 steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn praise for his makeup and work ethic as well as his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.

Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits (four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out 30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his brief big league tenure this past season.

MLBTR concludes that  the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer. Some may think the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a trade. But in reality, the Reds did receive four (4) prospects with potential upsides to add depth to their minor league system.

The Reds ended last season with five rookie starting pitchers. The team is on a development track by quickly advancing prospects to the major leagues. In that type of environment, there is an incentive for players to work harder to get to the majors quicker - - - which can quickly mold a core of good, young players.

December 27, 2015

A BAKER MAN

Former Cub catcher John Baker has recently signed as an operations assistant for the team.

His job description:

In his new role with the organization, Baker will contribute to all elements within the club’s baseball operations department, including player development and scouting with an eye towards catching and mental skills. He will visit the club’s affiliates to work with the minor league players on and off the field, evaluate amateur players leading up to the draft, and spend time around the major league club among additional responsibilities and opportunities.

What caught my eye was "player development" and "catching and mental skills."

Kyle Schwarber still wants to learn to be a major league catcher. In the minors, he caught and he hit extremely well. There are some players who thrive on being "into" the game on defense. (This is why so many National League hitters fail when they move to DH in the American League, i.e. Adam Dunn and Adam LaRoche.)

And if Schwarber can catch, that is a huge upgrade at a position that is league-wide devoid of power hitters. And moving him back to the plate will make the Cubs outfield defense better by putting a natural outfielder in left.

Schwarber is not suited to play a daily left field. The post season showed his fundamental flaws of trying to learn the position on the fly (in a pressure situation). The Cubs need his bat in the line up because he is a contact hitter who is learning to adjust to major league pitchers. You can't use him as the third catcher all season. (I thought that Montero would catch 3 games a week; Ross catch Lester and Schwarber could catch Hendricks, since they did so in the minors.)

So I would not be surprised that Baker becomes Schwarber's catching tutor.

December 24, 2015

PROBLEMS TO ADDRESS

For all the Cubs winning the off-season, the everyday lineup
is not very stable, at least defensively.

It may come down to this:

LF: Soler and Schwarber platoon
CF: Coghlan and Szczur platoon
RF: Heyward
3B: Bryant
SS: Russell
2B: Zobrist
1B: Rizzo
C: Montero, Ross (catching Lester), Schwarber (catching Hendricks)


Joe Maddon may have to become a master magician to balance the offensive potential with the defense weakness. One way of doing that is to play Heyward in his natural right field spot. Wrigley right field is a hard sun field so the quicker Heyward can adapt, the better for the defense.

Soler and Schwarber are both similar batters: high power potential but with inconsistent batting average and OBP. It is often said that left field is where you put your worst defensive outfielders. Soler and Schwarber are those players.

A center field platoon of Coghlan and Szczur is not the best solution, but since the Cubs are already overbudget on payroll, a new center fielder is not a viable option. Unless the Cubs can trade some salary (Hammel, who is believed the odd man out in the rotation), the Cubs will run with better defensive options in center than Heyward.

In order to make the Castro trade make sense, Warren will probably be the 5th starter on opening day. He made 17 starts for the Yankees last season, and reports indicate that he did well. Maddon lost confidence in Hammel, so I don't think he sets up well as the Edwin Jackson bullpen replacement when he was demoted from his starting spot.

You need to keep Schwarber's bat in the line up so becoming Hendricks personal catcher could help. They both worked together in the minors, so that may be a solution.

December 21, 2015

ST. LOUIS VILE

I cannot recall such vile vitriol from a city and fan base after a player leaves via free agency. 

When the Cubs signed Jason Heyward, Cardinal fans went nuts on social media. The insults were harsh and stupid. The St. Louis media also jumped on this hate bandwagon, calling Heyward "disloyal," a "traitor," and a "Benedict Arnold." They could not believe Heyward turned down a "better" offer from the Cardinals to play for the hated Cubs.

Heyward only played for the Cardinals for one year! He did not come up through the St. Louis system; he was an Atlanta Brave for most of his career. 

And if you break down his new deal, the Cubs actually are paying more than the Cardinals AAV deal. With the signing bonus and the op out clause, the Cubs are paying Heyward $26 million/season for the first three years. 

Is this still crass bitterness that the Cubs defeated the Cardinals in the post season? 

Or the impending fear and doom that the Cubs are now a championship caliber team?

But Heyward's explanation of his decision is noteworthy.

In his introductory press conference this week, Heyward explained that he was drawn to the Cubs in part because of the roster stability he expects them to have going forward. 

 “Knowing the core is young and those guys are going to be around for a while is very exciting,” Heyward said, according to ESPN. “I don’t want to take the highest dollar amount when my gut is telling me to go somewhere else. Being 26 years old and knowing that my contract would put me in any clubhouse for longer than most people there, you have to look at age, how fast the team is changing and how soon those changes will come about.”

December 19, 2015

WEALTH OF PITCHING

As this off-season has shown, starting pitching is a scare commodity. Even more valuable is "controllable" young starters. The Mets have amassed an envious young starting rotation.

But the White Sox also have a wealth of pitching arms. Currently starters are pretty good: Sale, Quintana, Rodon, and Danks. And they are left handed.

This is why the White Sox are never in a "rebuild" mode when the pitching staff is so good.

And it seems it will get better.

Of the Top 12 prospects, 6 are pitchers.

Carson Fulmer is #2 and he will get a chance to take Samardzija's spot in the rotation. Scouts project him to be a solid #2 starter.

Francelis Montas is another flamethrower. He is the team's #3 prospect. He finished well in AA and is expected to start in AAA Charlotte this year. Scouts project his stuff at a #2 starter level. He was just traded to the Dodgers in a three team deal to land 3B Todd Frazier from the Reds.

At #4 is pitcher Spencer Adams. He went 12-5 with 2.99 ERA in low minors last year. He has an effortless delivery of his four pitches with great command. Scouts think he may be better than Rodon, who has ace potential.

At #7 is another highly touted arm in Tyler Danish. Some scouts compare his size and make-up to that of Jake Peavy, who has had a long starting career in the majors. He will probably start in AAA this year.

At #11 is left hander Jordan Guerrero. He went 13-4 with 3.04 ERA in the low minors. His stuff ranges from 90-93, with a cutter and a curve ball. He may have the makings of a crafty lefty starter who would fit into the back of the rotation.

At #12 is hard throwing Chris Beck, who may get a chance to be the long reliever/spot starter in 2016. He is working on four pitch command. Scouts figure he may be a future #3 starter.

Look at the projections for these pitching prospects: two #2 starters, a potential ace, one #3, and two back of the rotation starters.

The White Sox have two prospects who are major league ready with good potential (Fulmer and Beck). Adams and Danish may be just two years away.

For whatever reason, the White Sox seem to draft and develop starting pitchers.

And the White Sox do not have to deal any of their current starters, which puts the team in the position to concentrate of field position needs.


December 17, 2015

HOLY COW!

This was a move that caught many off-guard: The White Sox fixing their third base problem by trading for Reds All-Star Todd Frazier.

In the three team deal, the White Sox send to the Dodgers three high level prospects: SP Frankie Montas, OF Trayce Thompson and IN Micah Johnson. The Dodgers send to the Reds a package of quality prospects: IN Jose Peraza, OF Scott Schebler and IN Brandon Dixon.

Montas is a flamethrower starting minor league pitcher and listed as the team's #3 prospect. Thompson was the White Sox's #14 prospect, but had a good debut last year to the point that he would compete for a starting OF position. Johnson was the Sox's #5 prospect. He is a solid infield defender with speed. But the acquisition of Brett Lawrie made Johnson expendable depth.

Frazier, 29, is under team control through 2017. He will be paid $7.5 million in 2016.

Frazier hit .255, 35 HR, 89 RBI, 13 SB with the Reds. He had a season 4.0 WAR. In his 4.25 seasons in the majors, his career WAR is 15.3.

This move immediately re-tools the Sox infield and line-up.

Frazier will anchor third, sophomore Tyler Saladino will compete for shortstop, Lawrie at second and Jose Abreu at first.

Along with two new proven catchers, the White Sox lineup looks more powerful:

1. Eaton CF
2. Cabrera LF
3. Abreu 1B
4. Frazier 3B
5. Lawrie 2B
6. Garcia RF
7. LaRoche DH
8. Navarro/Avila C
9. Saladino SS